Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

I. A seismotectonic study of the Middle America Subduction Zone. II. Lithosphere and upper mantle structure of the Canadian Shield and Eastern North America

This thesis consists of two separate parts. Part I (Chapter 1) is concerned with seismotectonics of the Middle America subduction zone. In this chapter, stress distribution and Benioff zone geometry are investigated along almost 2000 km of this subduction zone, from the Rivera Fracture Zone in the north to Guatemala in the south. Particular emphasis is placed on the effects on stress distribution of two aseismic ridges, the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone, which subduct at seismic gaps. Stress distribution is determined by studying seismicity distribution, and by analysis of 190 focal mechanisms, both new and previously published, which are collected here. In addition, two recent large earthquakes that have occurred near the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone are discussed in more detail. A consistent stress release pattern is found along most of the Middle America subduction zone: thrust events at shallow depths, followed down-dip by an area of low seismic activity, followed by a zone of normal events at over 175 km from the trench and 60 km depth. The zone of low activity is interpreted as showing decoupling of the plates, and the zone of normal activity as showing the breakup of the descending plate. The portion of subducted lithosphere containing the Orozco Fracture Zone does not differ significantly, in Benioff zone geometry or in stress distribution, from adjoining segments. The Playa Azul earthquake of October 25, 1981, M_s=7.3, occurred in this area. Body and surface wave analysis of this event shows a simple source with a shallow thrust mechanism and gives M_o=1.3x10²⁷ dyne-cm. A stress drop of about 45 bars is calculated; this is slightly higher than that of other thrust events in this subduction zone. In the Tehuantepec Ridge area, only minor differences in stress distribution are seen relative to adjoining segments. For both ridges, the only major difference from adjoining areas is the infrequency or lack of occurrence of large interplate thrust events.

Part II involves upper mantle P wave structure studies, for the Canadian shield and eastern North America. In Chapter 2, the P wave structure of the Canadian shield is determined through forward waveform modeling of the phases P_nl, P, and PP. Effects of lateral heterogeneity are kept to a minimum by using earthquakes just outside the shield as sources, with propagation paths largely within the shield. Previous mantle structure studies have used recordings of P waves in the upper mantle triplication range of 15-30°; however, the lack of large earthquakes in the shield region makes compilation of a complete P wave dataset difficult. By using the phase PP, which undergoes triplications at 30-60°, much more information becomes available. The WKBJ technique is used to calculate synthetic seismograms for PP, and these records are modeled almost as well as the P. A new velocity model, designated S25, is proposed for the Canadian shield. This model contains a thick, high-Q, high-velocity lid to 165 km and a deep low-velocity zone. These features combine to produce seismograms that are markedly different from those generated by other shield structure models. The upper mantle discontinuities in S25 are placed at 405 and 660 km, with a simple linear gradient in velocity between them. Details of the shape of the discontinuities are not well constrained. Below 405 km, this model is not very different from many proposed P wave models for both shield and tectonic regions.

Chapter 3 looks in more detail at recordings of P_nl in eastern North America. First, seismograms from four eastern North American earthquakes are analyzed, and seismic moments for the events are calculated. These earthquakes are important in that they are among the largest to have occurred in eastern North America in the last thirty years, yet in some cases were not large enough to produce many good long-period teleseismic records. A simple layer-over-a-halfspace model is used for the initial modeling, and is found to provide an excellent fit for many features of the observed waveforms. The effects on P_nl of varying lid structure are then investigated. A thick lid with a positive gradient in velocity, such as that proposed for the Canadian shield in Chapter 2, will have a pronounced effect on the waveforms, beginning at distances of 800 or 900 km. P_nl records from the same eastern North American events are recalculated for several lid structure models, to survey what kinds of variations might be seen. For several records it is possible to see likely effects of lid structure in the data. However, the dataset is too sparse to make any general observations about variations in lid structure. This type of modeling is expected to be important in the future, as the analysis is extended to more recent eastern North American events, and as broadband instruments make more high-quality regional recordings available.

Arquitetura crustal da bacia de Almada no contexto das bacias da margem lesste da América do Sul

A Bacia de Almada, localizada no estado da Bahia, compartilha características similares com as outras bacias da margem leste do Brasil, quando é analisada segundo aspectos como os processos sedimentares e o regime de esforço dominante durante a sua formação. Observa-se uma diferença marcante em relação as outras bacias quando é analisada sob a ótica da composição da crosta transicional, uma vez que não se registra atividade vulcânica durante a fase rifte. A aquisição de um extenso levantamento sísmico 3D, com cabos de 6 km de comprimento e 9.2 segundos de tempo de registro (tempo sísmico duplo), resultaram em imagens sísmicas de boa qualidade das estruturas profundas do rifte. Adicionalmente, estudos de modelagem gravimétrica foram integrados com a análise sísmica para corroborar o modelo geológico. A Bacia de Almada é parte dos sistemas de rifte continentais, desenvolvidos durante o Berriasiano até o Aptiano, que antecederam a quebra do continente do Gondwana, evoluindo posteriormente para uma margem passiva divergente. O processo do rifteamento desenvolveu cinco sub-bacias de orientação NNE-SSO, desde posições terrestres até marinhas profundas, produzindo um arcabouço estrutural complexo. Os perfis da sísmica profunda mostram o afinamento progressivo da crosta continental até espessuras da ordem de 5 km, abaixo da sub-bacia mais oriental, com fatores de estiramento crustal próximo a 7 antes do desenvolvimento de crosta oceânica propriamente dita. As imagens sísmicas de boa qualidade permitem também o reconhecimento de sistemas de falhas lístricas que se iniciam na crosta superior, evoluem atravessando a crosta e conectando as sub-bacias para finalizar em um descolamento horizontal na crosta inferior estratificada. Adicionalmente, a bacia apresenta um perfil assimétrico, compatível com mecanismos de cisalhamento simples. As margens vulcânicas (VM) e não vulcânicas (NVM), são os extremos da análise composicional das margens divergentes continentais. Na Bacia de Almada não se reconhecem os elementos arquiteturais típicos das VM, tais como são as grandes províncias ígneas, caracterizadas por cunhas de refletores que mergulham em direção ao mar e por intenso vulcanismo pré- e sin-rifte nas bacias. Embora a margem divergente do Atlântico Sul seja interpretada tradicionalmente como vulcânica, o segmento do rifte ao sul do Estado da Bahia apresenta características não-vulcânicas, devido à ausência destes elementos arquiteturais e aos resultados obtidos nas perfurações geológicas que eventualmente alcançam a seqüência rifte e embasamento. Regionalmente a margem divergente sul-americana é majoritariamente vulcânica, embora a abundância e a influência do magmatísmo contemporâneo ao rifte seja muito variável. Ao longo da margem continental, desde a Bacia Austral no sul da Argentina, até a Bacia de Pernambuco no nordeste do Brasil, podem ser reconhecidos segmentos de caráter vulcânico forte, médio e não vulcânico. Nos exemplos clássicos de margens não vulcânicas, como a margem da Ibéria, a crosta transicional é altamente afinada podendo apresentar evidências de exumação de manto. Na Bacia de Almada, a crosta transicional apresenta importante estiramento embora não haja evidências concretas de exumação de manto. Os mecanismos responsáveis pela geração e intrusão dos grandes volumes de magma registrados nas margens divergentes são ainda sujeitos a intenso debate. Ao longo da margem divergente sul-americana há evidências da presença dos mecanismos genéticos de estiramento litosférico e impacto de plumas. Alternativamente estes dois mecanismos parecem ter tido um papel importante na evolução tectônica da margem sudeste e sul, diferenciando-as da margem continental onde foi implantada a Bacia de Almada.

Response of linear, viscous damped systems to excitations having time-varying frequency

The response of linear, viscous damped systems to excitations having time-varying frequency is the subject of exact and approximate analyses, which are supplemented by an analog computer study of single degree of freedom system response to excitations having frequencies depending linearly and exponentially on time.

The technique of small perturbations and the methods of stationary phase and saddle-point integration, as well as a novel bounding procedure, are utilized to derive approximate expressions characterizing the system response envelope—particularly near resonances—for the general time-varying excitation frequency.

Descriptive measurements of system resonant behavior recorded during the course of the analog study—maximum response, excitation frequency at which maximum response occurs, and the width of the response peak at the half-power level—are investigated to determine dependence upon natural frequency, damping, and the functional form of the excitation frequency.

The laboratory problem of determining the properties of a physical system from records of its response to excitations of this class is considered, and the transient phenomenon known as “ringing” is treated briefly.

It is shown that system resonant behavior, as portrayed by the above measurements and expressions, is relatively insensitive to the specifics of the excitation frequency-time relation and may be described to good order in terms of parameters combining system properties with the time derivative of excitation frequency evaluated at resonance.

One of these parameters is shown useful for predicting whether or not a given excitation having a time-varying frequency will produce strong or subtle changes in the response envelope of a given system relative to the steady-state response envelope. The parameter is shown, additionally, to be useful for predicting whether or not a particular response record will exhibit the “ringing” phenomenon.

Observation and interpretation of tectonic strain release mechanisms

In four chapters various aspects of earthquake source are studied.

Chapter I

Surface displacements that followed the Parkfield, 1966, earthquakes were measured for two years with six small-scale geodetic networks straddling the fault trace. The logarithmic rate and the periodic nature of the creep displacement recorded on a strain meter made it possible to predict creep episodes on the San Andreas fault. Some individual earthquakes were related directly to surface displacement, while in general, slow creep and aftershock activity were found to occur independently. The Parkfield earthquake is interpreted as a buried dislocation.

Chapter II

The source parameters of earthquakes between magnitude 1 and 6 were studied using field observations, fault plane solutions, and surface wave and S-wave spectral analysis. The seismic moment, M_O, was found to be related to local magnitude, M_L, by log M_O = 1.7 M_L + 15.1. The source length vs magnitude relation for the San Andreas system found to be: M_L = 1.9 log L - 6.7. The surface wave envelope parameter AR gives the moment according to log M_O = log AR₃₀₀ + 30.1, and the stress drop, τ, was found to be related to the magnitude by τ = 0.54 M - 2.58. The relation between surface wave magnitude M_S and M_L is proposed to be M_S = 1.7 M_L - 4.1. It is proposed to estimate the relative stress level (and possibly the strength) of a source-region by the amplitude ratio of high-frequency to low-frequency waves. An apparent stress map for Southern California is presented.

Chapter III

Seismic triggering and seismic shaking are proposed as two closely related mechanisms of strain release which explain observations of the character of the P wave generated by the Alaskan earthquake of 1964, and distant fault slippage observed after the Borrego Mountain, California earthquake of 1968. The Alaska, 1964, earthquake is shown to be adequately described as a series of individual rupture events. The first of these events had a body wave magnitude of 6.6 and is considered to have initiated or triggered the whole sequence. The propagation velocity of the disturbance is estimated to be 3.5 km/sec. On the basis of circumstantial evidence it is proposed that the Borrego Mountain, 1968, earthquake caused release of tectonic strain along three active faults at distances of 45 to 75 km from the epicenter. It is suggested that this mechanism of strain release is best described as "seismic shaking."

Chapter IV

The changes of apparent stress with depth are studied in the South American deep seismic zone. For shallow earthquakes the apparent stress is 20 bars on the average, the same as for earthquakes in the Aleutians and on Oceanic Ridges. At depths between 50 and 150 km the apparent stresses are relatively high, approximately 380 bars, and around 600 km depth they are again near 20 bars. The seismic efficiency is estimated to be 0.1. This suggests that the true stress is obtained by multiplying the apparent stress by ten. The variation of apparent stress with depth is explained in terms of the hypothesis of ocean floor consumption.

An Optically recombined laser interferometer for gravitational wave detection

Kilometer scale interferometers for the detection of gravitational waves are currently under construction by the LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory) and VIRGO projects. These interferometers will consist of two Fabry-Perot cavities illuminated by a laser beam which is split in half by a beam splitter. A recycling mirror between the laser and the beam splitter will reflect the light returning from the beam splitter towards the laser back into the interferometer. The positions of the optical components in these interferometers must be controlled to a small fraction of a wavelength of the laser light. Schemes to extract signals necessary to control these optical components have been developed and demonstrated on the tabletop. In the large scale gravitational wave detectors the optical components must be suspended from vibration isolation platforms to achieve the necessary isolation from seismic motion. These suspended components present a new class of problems in controlling the interferometer, but also provide more exacting test of interferometer signal and noise models.

This thesis discusses the first operation of a suspended-mass Fabry-Perot-Michelson interferometer, in which signals carried by the optically recombined beams are used to detect and control all important mirror displacements. This interferometer uses an optical configuration and signal extraction scheme that is planned for the full scale LIGO interferometers with the simplification of the removal of the recycling mirror. A theoretical analysis of the performance that is expected from such an interferometer is presented and the experimental results are shown to be in generally good agreement.

Imaging the earth with ambient noise and earthquakes

In this thesis, I develop the velocity and structure models for the Los Angeles Basin and Southern Peru. The ultimate goal is to better understand the geological processes involved in the basin and subduction zone dynamics. The results are obtained from seismic interferometry using ambient noise and receiver functions using earthquake- generated waves. Some unusual signals specific to the local structures are also studied. The main findings are summarized as follows:

(1) Los Angeles Basin

The shear wave velocities range from 0.5 to 3.0 km/s in the sediments, with lateral gradients at the Newport-Inglewood, Compton-Los Alamitos, and Whittier Faults. The basin is a maximum of 8 km deep along the profile, and the Moho rises to a depth of 17 km under the basin. The basin has a stretch factor of 2.6 in the center decreasing to 1.3 at the edges, and is in approximate isostatic equilibrium. This "high-density" (~1 km spacing) "short-duration" (~1.5 month) experiment may serve as a prototype experiment that will allow basins to be covered by this type of low-cost survey.

(2) Peruvian subduction zone

Two prominent mid-crust structures are revealed in the 70 km thick crust under the Central Andes: a low-velocity zone interpreted as partially molten rocks beneath the Western Cordillera – Altiplano Plateau, and the underthrusting Brazilian Shield beneath the Eastern Cordillera. The low-velocity zone is oblique to the present trench, and possibly indicates the location of the volcanic arcs formed during the steepening of the Oligocene flat slab beneath the Altiplano Plateau.

The Nazca slab changes from normal dipping (~25 degrees) subduction in the southeast to flat subduction in the northwest of the study area. In the flat subduction regime, the slab subducts to ~100 km depth and then remains flat for ~300 km distance before it resumes a normal dipping geometry. The flat part closely follows the topography of the continental Moho above, indicating a strong suction force between the slab and the overriding plate. A high-velocity mantle wedge exists above the western half of the flat slab, which indicates the lack of melting and thus explains the cessation of the volcanism above. The velocity turns to normal values before the slab steepens again, indicating possible resumption of dehydration and ecologitization.

(3) Some unusual signals

Strong higher-mode Rayleigh waves due to the basin structure are observed in the periods less than 5 s. The particle motions provide a good test for distinguishing between the fundamental and higher mode. The precursor and coda waves relative to the interstation Rayleigh waves are observed, and modeled with a strong scatterer located in the active volcanic area in Southern Peru. In contrast with the usual receiver function analysis, multiples are extensively involved in this thesis. In the LA Basin, a good image is only from PpPs multiples, while in Peru, PpPp multiples contribute significantly to the final results.

High frequency wave propagation in the earth: theory and observation

The wave-theoretical analysis of acoustic and elastic waves refracted by a spherical boundary across which both velocity and density increase abruptly and thence either increase or decrease continuously with depth is formulated in terms of the general problem of waves generated at a steady point source and scattered by a radially heterogeneous spherical body. A displacement potential representation is used for the elastic problem that results in high frequency decoupling of P-SV motion in a spherically symmetric, radially heterogeneous medium. Through the application of an earth-flattening transformation on the radial solution and the Watson transform on the sum over eigenfunctions, the solution to the spherical problem for high frequencies is expressed as a Weyl integral for the corresponding half-space problem in which the effect of boundary curvature maps into an effective positive velocity gradient. The results of both analytical and numerical evaluation of this integral can be summarized as follows for body waves in the crust and upper mantle:

1) In the special case of a critical velocity gradient (a gradient equal and opposite to the effective curvature gradient), the critically refracted wave reduces to the classical head wave for flat, homogeneous layers.

2) For gradients more negative than critical, the amplitude of the critically refracted wave decays more rapidly with distance than the classical head wave.

3) For positive, null, and gradients less negative than critical, the amplitude of the critically refracted wave decays less rapidly with distance than the classical head wave, and at sufficiently large distances, the refracted wave can be adequately described in terms of ray-theoretical diving waves. At intermediate distances from the critical point, the spectral amplitude of the refracted wave is scalloped due to multiple diving wave interference.

These theoretical results applied to published amplitude data for P-waves refracted by the major crustal and upper mantle horizons (the Pg, P*, and Pn travel-time branches) suggest that the 'granitic' upper crust, the 'basaltic' lower crust, and the mantle lid all have negative or near-critical velocity gradients in the tectonically active western United States. On the other hand, the corresponding horizons in the stable eastern United States appear to have null or slightly positive velocity gradients. The distribution of negative and positive velocity gradients correlates closely with high heat flow in tectonic regions and normal heat flow in stable regions. The velocity gradients inferred from the amplitude data are generally consistent with those inferred from ultrasonic measurements of the effects of temperature and pressure on crustal and mantle rocks and probable geothermal gradients. A notable exception is the strong positive velocity gradient in the mantle lid beneath the eastern United States (2 x 10^-3 sec^-1), which appears to require a compositional gradient to counter the effect of even a small geothermal gradient.

New seismic-refraction data were recorded along a 800 km profile extending due south from the Canadian border across the Columbia Plateau into eastern Oregon. The source for the seismic waves was a series of 20 high-energy chemical explosions detonated by the Canadian government in Greenbush Lake, British Columbia. The first arrivals recorded along this profile are on the Pn travel-time branch. In northern Washington and central Oregon their travel time is described by T = Δ/8.0 + 7.7 sec, but in the Columbia Plateau the Pn arrivals are as much as 0.9 sec early with respect to this line. An interpretation of these Pn arrivals together with later crustal arrivals suggest that the crust under the Columbia Plateau is thinner by about 10 km and has a higher average P-wave velocity than the 35-km-thick, 62-km/sec crust under the granitic-metamorphic terrain of northern Washington. A tentative interpretation of later arrivals recorded beyond 500 km from the shots suggests that a thin 8.4-km/sec horizon may be present in the upper mantle beneath the Columbia Plateau and that this horizon may form the lid to a pronounced low-velocity zone extending to a depth of about 140 km.

Sistemas deposicionais aptianos da margem sudeste da Bacia Potiguar

A deposição aptiana da margem continental brasileira é caracterizada por dois elementos principais: 1) a presença de evaporitos (halita e/ou anidrita) num ambiente definido como lago-mar (de acordo com HSÜ, 1987); e 2) uma configuração tectonossedimentar do tipo sag. A chegada do mar às bacias, antes puramente continentais, é um evento que afeta toda a margem continental do Brasil, bem como tem ocorrência global. A sua presença nas bacias da margem equatorial , em particular, na Bacia Potiguar, possui um forte relacionamento com a existência de petróleo e gás (Bertani et al., 1989). A margem sudeste da Bacia Potiguar possui um razoável cobertura sísimica tanto 2D como 3D. As unidades estratigráficas compõe esta porção da bacia são a Formação Pendência, na base, a Formação Alagamar, a Formação Açu e no topo, a Formação Jandaíra. A Formação Pendência, na realidade mais um grupo do que formação, engloba as rochas depositadas na fase riftee da bacia (Della Favera et al., 1994). A Formação Alagamar envolve os sedimentos depositados no Aptiano, os quais estarão no foco deste trabalho; é formada por três membros: Upanema, Camadas Ponta de Tubarão e Galinhos (Della Favera, 1990). A Formação Açu, do Cretáceo Superior, separa-se discordantemente da seção da Formação Alagamar e é formada principalmente por arenitos fluviais. Esta formação transiciona para a Formação Jandaíra, denatureza carbonática, que constitui o topo da sequência sedimentar. Neste trabalho serão definidos os sistemas deposicionais e respectivos controles da sequência aptiana ao longo da borda sudeste da Bacia Potiguar a partir da identificação de eletrofácies e sismofácies. Sendo assim, nesta dissertação são mostradas as sequências de 3 e 4 ordem que representam, em conjunto, a Fm. Alagamar. Foram identificadas, em perfis elétricos de diferentes poços na área de estudo pelo menos 6 sequências de 4 ordem e 3 sequências de 3 ordem, que também foram identificadas em seções sísmicas arbitrária de direção SW-NE e SE-NW interligando os poços de etudo. A partir da análise dos dados e sequências identificadas, a reconstituiçãopaleoambiental apontou para ambiente de borda de lago (lago-mar) próxima a escarpa de falha, com depósitos de leques aluviais a delta de rios entrelaçados, praias com tempestitosareno-calcíferos, laguna salgada com formação de estromatólitos e eventuais solos carbonáticos. Sendo assim, as sequências de 3 ordem identificadas representariam cada um dos membros da Fm. Alagamar (Mb. Upanema, Mb. Ponta de Tubarão e Mb. Galinhos, da base para o topo). A correlação das sequências de 4 ordem identificadas pode ser aplicada no rastreamento de corpos arenosos, reservatórios de petróleo nessa porção da bacia.

O sistema fluvio-estuarino da Baía de Sepetiba preservado na estratigrafia rasa da plataforma continental interna adjacente (RJ)

A análise de dados de reflexão sísmica monocanal boomer (Hz ~ 700-4,000; penetração ~ 70 ms) adquiridos na plataforma continental interna-média (até ~ 50-60 m de profundidade) ao largo do sistema estuarino baía de Sepetiba, no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, revelou a ocorrência de uma sucessão sedimentar preservada 15-20 m, sismicamente interpretada como representando ambientes fluvio-estuarinos para marinhos rasos. Estas séries são sotopostas à inconformidade regional mais superior reconhecida na escala de plataforma, chamada superfície S3. Esta superfície é erodida por numerosas incisões fluviais, que sugerem processos erosivos associados à prolongada exposição subaérea da plataforma continental durante o estágio isotópico marinho 2 (MIS 2), globalmente datada em ~ 20 ka A.P.. A preservação de tais unidades de corte e preenchimento estuarinho presumíveis Pleistoceno Superior-Holoceno na plataforma interna-média (até ~ 30 km da costa) evidencia pela primeira vez na área a existência de um paleo sistema fluvial bastante desenvolvido e processos dominantes de denudação na bacia hidrográfica a montante que atualmente alimenta a baía de Sepetiba. Bem como que, uma série de elementos arquiteturais sísmicos dentro desta sucessão estuarina, como canais de maré retrogradantes, registram a evolução do paleo sistema estuarino de um sistema aberto à um sistema parcialmente protegido durante a transgressão Holocênica. A formação e erosão de uma sucessão de ilhas barreira isoladas e canais de maré durante a transgressão persistiu até o desenvolvimento de uma superfície estratigráfica superior na área, interpretada como a superfície de máxima inundação (MFS) no registro estratigráfico. A ilha barreira atual (restinga da Marambaia) prograda sobre a MFS como uma feição deposição regressiva, apontando para uma idade mais jovem do que cerca de ~ 5 ka A. P., idade da transgressão máxima na área, de acordo com a literatura disponível.

Análise estratigráfica do campo de Pirapema na bacia da foz do Amazonas

A Bacia da Foz do Amazonas localiza-se no extremo noroeste da plataforma continental brasileira, mais precisamente na margem equatorial. Esta margem se distingue da margem leste brasileira, principalmente pela existência de esforços transtensivos que culminaram com a criação de falhas transformantes de direção E-W e, consequente, criação de bacias do tipo pull apart. Esta bacia ainda se difere das demais bacias brasileiras devido à existência de um expressivo pacote sedimentar depositado nos últimos 11 Ma., que pode chegar a mais de 10.000 metros de sedimentos. Tal feição, denominada Cone Amazônico, apresenta ainda um arcabouço estratigráfico pouco compreendido. Neste trabalho, buscou-se trazer novas perspectivas acerca do pacote sedimentar da bacia, com ênfase na análise estratigráfica dos ciclos progradacionais característicos de progradações deltaicas, bem como a distribuição de possíveis reservatórios siliciclásticos. A análise integrada de poços com as interpretações sísmicas possibilitou a confecção de detalhadas correlações estratigráficas para região do Cone Amazônico. Foram também realizadas importantes observações para as formações mais antigas que o Cone Amazônico como, por exemplo, a influência de intrusões ígneas nas formações Caciporé e Calçoene, atingindo até mesmo a Formação Limoeiro (sequência pós-rifte), bem como a presença de falhas normais relacionada à intumescência da feição ígnea, atingindo a plataforma carbonática. Esta bacia constitui uma fronteira exploratória, complexa em seus aspectos estruturais e estratigráficos, onde a interação de fatores como taxa de acomodação e variação do aporte sedimentar ainda não está totalmente compreendido.

Mapeamento sísmico de intrusões ígneas na bacia do Amazonas e suas implicações para um modelo não-convencional de geração de hidrocarbonetos

A maioria das bacias paleozóicas brasileiras apresenta matéria orgânica termicamente pouco evoluída nos intervalos correspondentes ao Devoniano. O modelo mais adequado para se entender a geração, migração e acumulação de HC estaria relacionado às fases de intrusão de diabásio. No caso da Bacia do Amazonas, embora tenha havido condições de soterramento suficientes para a geração de hidrocarbonetos, não se deve descartar o modelo não convencional de geração como uma das formas possíveis de dar origem as acumulações comerciais de óleo e gás. Acredita-se que o intervalo mais apropriado para a geração de hidrocarbonetos (HC) inclua apenas as rochas depositadas no intervalo Frasniano, embora as rochas associadas ao intervalo Llandoveriano, também, devam ser observadas com atenção. Com o intuito de compreender melhor o papel da atividade magmática na evolução da Bacia do Amazonas, foi realizado o mapeamento sísmico de soleiras de diabásio e análise de dados geoquímicos de pirólise Rock-Eval e COT. Assim, foi possível avaliar a geração/migração de hidrocarbonetos e a variação dos parâmetros geotérmicos na Bacia do Amazonas, causados pela intrusão das soleiras de diabásio. A análise sismoestratigráfica baseou-se na interpretação de 20 linhas sísmicas 2D pós-stack, na qual foram reconhecidos e mapeados horizontes sísmicos (topos de formações e corpos ígneos intrusivos), utilizando dados de poços e dados da literatura para correlação. As intrusões de soleiras estão presentes nas sucessões de folhelhos/siltitos e anidritas das formações Andirá e Nova Olinda, respectivamente. Observou-se que as soleiras de diabásio podem estar intimamente relacionadas a diques sistematicamente orientados, tendo estes diques a função de alimentadores das soleiras. Extensas soleiras planares com segmentos transgressivos ocorrem nos níveis estratigráficos mais rasos da Bacia do Amazonas, e em maiores volumes nas formações Andirá e Nova Olinda. Em algumas regiões as soleiras desenvolvem morfologias marcantes em forma de pires. Esses corpos possuem espessuras que podem chegar a 500m. Comumente, a geometria em lençol denotada pelo paralelismo dos refletores está presente em toda extensão do mapeamento da bacia. Também foram observadas estruturas em domo. O efeito térmico imposto pelas intrusões dos corpos ígneos, diques e soleiras foi de grande importância, pois sem ele não haveria calor para a transformação da matéria orgânica. Através da análise de pirólise Rock-Eval e teor de carbono orgânico, foi possível avaliar e correlacionar os parâmetros como S2 (potencial de geração), IH (índice de hidrogênio), S1 (hidrocarbonetos livres) e Tmax (evolução térmica) com a profundidade. Foram utilizados dados de 04 poços na qual dois deles foram compilados a partir de artigos e teses publicados. As rochas potencialmente geradoras de petróleo são aquelas que apresentam COT igual ou superior a 1%. Dos quatro poços analisados, dois deles apresentam COT > 1% para a Formação Barreirinhas, mostrando que as rochas sedimentares são potencialmente geradoras de HC. Altos valores Tmax podem ser justificados pelo efeito térmico causado por intrusões de diabásio. Os resultados de índice de hidrogênio (IH) apresentaram valores abaixo de 200mgHC/g COT, indicando o potencial gerador desta bacia para gás.