An estimate of equilibrium sensitivity of global terrestrial carbon cycle using NCAR CCSM4

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 influence climate, terrestrial biosphere productivity and ecosystem carbon storage through its radiative, physiological and fertilization effects. In this paper, we quantify these effects for a doubling of CO2 using a low resolution configuration of the coupled model NCAR CCSM4. In contrast to previous coupled climate-carbon modeling studies, we focus on the near-equilibrium response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. For a doubling of CO2, the radiative effect on the physical climate system causes global mean surface air temperature to increase by 2.14 K, whereas the physiological and fertilization on the land biosphere effects cause a warming of 0.22 K, suggesting that these later effects increase global warming by about 10 % as found in many recent studies. The CO2-fertilization leads to total ecosystem carbon gain of 371 Gt-C (28 %) while the radiative effect causes a loss of 131 Gt-C (10 %) indicating that climate warming damps the fertilization-induced carbon uptake over land. Our model-based estimate for the maximum potential terrestrial carbon uptake resulting from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration (285-570 ppm) is only 242 Gt-C. This highlights the limited storage capacity of the terrestrial carbon reservoir. We also find that the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity to changes in CO2 and temperature have been estimated to be lower in previous transient simulations because of lags in the climate-carbon system. Our model simulations indicate that the time scale of terrestrial carbon cycle response is greater than 500 years for CO2-fertilization and about 200 years for temperature perturbations. We also find that dynamic changes in vegetation amplify the terrestrial carbon storage sensitivity relative to a static vegetation case: because of changes in tree cover, changes in total ecosystem carbon for CO2-direct and climate effects are amplified by 88 and 72 %, respectively, in simulations with dynamic vegetation when compared to static vegetation simulations.

Characterizing drought using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability concept

This study borrows the measures developed for the operation of water resources systems as a means of characterizing droughts in a given region. It is argued that the common approach of assessing drought using a univariate measure (severity or reliability) is inadequate as decision makers need assessment of the other facets considered here. It is proposed that the joint distribution of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (referred to as RRV in a reservoir operation context), assessed using soil moisture data over the study region, be used to characterize droughts. Use is made of copulas to quantify the joint distribution between these variables. As reliability and resilience vary in a nonlinear but almost deterministic way, the joint probability distribution of only resilience and vulnerability is modeled. Recognizing the negative association between the two variables, a Plackett copula is used to formulate the joint distribution. The developed drought index, referred to as the drought management index (DMI), is able to differentiate the drought proneness of a given area when compared to other areas. An assessment of the sensitivity of the DMI to the length of the data segments used in evaluation indicates relative stability is achieved if the data segments are 5years or longer. The proposed approach is illustrated with reference to the Malaprabha River basin in India, using four adjoining Climate Prediction Center grid cells of soil moisture data that cover an area of approximately 12,000 km(2). (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Spectral analysis of Cauvery river flows

A detalied study of the maonthly Convery river flows at the krishna raja sagara (KRS) reservoir is carried out by using the techniques of spectral analysis. The correlogram and power spectrum ate platted and used to identify the peridiocities inherent in the monthly inflows. The statistical significance of these periodicities is tested. Apart from the periodiocities at 12 months and 6 months, a significant of periodicity of 4 month was also observed in the monthly inflows. The analysis prepares ground for developing an appropriate stochastic model for the item series of the monthly flows.

Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Rodinian suture in western India: New insights on India-Madagascar correlations

We report detailed evidence for a new paleo-suture zone (the Kumta suture) on the western margin of southern India. The c. 15-km-wide, westward dipping suture zone contains garnet-biotite, fuchsite-haematite, chlorite-quartz, quartz-phengite schists, biotite augen gneiss, marble and amphibolite. The isochemical phase diagram estimations and the high-Si phengite composition of quartz-phengite schist suggest a near-peak condition of c. 18 kbar at c. 550 degrees C, followed by near-isothermal decompression. The detrital SHRIMP U-Pb zircon ages from quartz-phengite schist give four age populations ranging from 3280 to 2993 Ma. Phengite from quartz-phengite schist and biotite from garnet-biotite schist have K-Ar metamorphic ages of ca. 1326 and ca. 1385 Ma respectively. Electron microprobe-CHIME ages of in situ zircons in quartz-phengite schist (ca. 3750 Ma and ca. 1697 Ma) are consistent with the above results. The Bondla ultramafic-gabbro complex in the west of the Kumta suture compositionally represents an arc with K-Ar biotite ages from gabbro in the range 1644-1536 Ma. On the eastern side of the suture are weakly deformed and unmetamorphosed shallow westward-dipping sedimentary rocks of the Sirsi shelf, which has the following upward stratigraphy: pebbly quartzite/sandstone, turbidite, magnetite iron formation, and limestone; farther east the lower lying quartzite has an unconformable contact with ca. 2571 Ma quartzo-feldspathic gneisses of the Dharwar block with a ca. 1733 Ma biotite cooling age. To the west of the suture is a c. 60-km-wide Karwar block mainly consisting of tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite (TTG) and amphibolite. The TTGs have U-Pb zircon magmatic ages of ca. 3200 Ma with a rare inherited core age of ca. 3601 Ma. The K-Ar biotite cooling age from the TTGs (1746 Ma and 1796 Ma) and amphibolite (ca. 1697 Ma) represents late-stage uplift. Integration of geological, structural and geochronological data from western India and eastern Madagascar suggest diachronous ocean closure during the amalgamation of Rodinia; in the north at around ca. 1380 Ma, and a progression toward the south until ca. 750 Ma. Satellite imagery based regional structural lineaments suggests that the Betsimisaraka suture continues into western India as the Kumta suture and possibly farther south toward a suture in the Coorg area, representing in total a c. 1000 km long Rodinian suture. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of dynamic behaviour of recession curves

Since Brutsaert and Neiber (1977), recession curves are widely used to analyse subsurface systems of river basins by expressing -dQ/dt as a function of Q, which typically take a power law form: -dQ/dt=kQ, where Q is the discharge at a basin outlet at time t. Traditionally recession flows are modelled by single reservoir models that assume a unique relationship between -dQ/dt and Q for a basin. However, recent observations indicate that -dQ/dt-Q relationship of a basin varies greatly across recession events, indicating the limitation of such models. In this study, the dynamic relationship between -dQ/dt and Q of a basin is investigated through the geomorphological recession flow model which models recession flows by considering the temporal evolution of its active drainage network (the part of the stream network of the basin draining water at time t). Two primary factors responsible for the dynamic relationship are identified: (i) degree of aquifer recharge (ii) spatial variation of rainfall. Degree of aquifer recharge, which is likely to be controlled by (effective) rainfall patterns, influences the power law coefficient, k. It is found that k has correlation with past average streamflow, which confirms the notion that dynamic -dQ/dt-Q relationship is caused by the degree of aquifer recharge. Spatial variation of rainfall is found to have control on both the exponent, , and the power law coefficient, k. It is noticed that that even with same and k, recession curves can be different, possibly due to their different (recession) peak values. This may also happen due to spatial variation of rainfall. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Exfoliated graphite/titanium dioxide nanocomposites for photodegradation of eosin yellow

An improved photocatalyst consisting of a nanocomposite of exfoliated graphite and titanium dioxide (EG-TiO2) was prepared. SEM and TEM micrographs showed that the spherical TiO2 nanoparticles were evenly distributed on the surface of the EG sheets. A four times photocatalytic enhancement was observed for this floating nanocomposite compared to TiO2 and EG alone for the degradation of eosin yellow. For all the materials, the reactions followed first order kinetics where for EG-TiO2, the rate constant was much higher than for EG and TiO2 under visible light irradiation. The enhanced photocatalytic activity of EG-TiO2 was ascribed to the capability of graphitic layers to accept and transport electrons from the excited TiO2, promoting charge separation. This indicates that carbon, a cheap and abundant material, can be a good candidate as an electron attracting reservoir for photocatalytic organic pollutant degradation. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change scenarios of surface solar radiation in data sparse regions: a case study in Malaprabha River Basin, India

A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment. However, there are no clear guidelines available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study, namely: Case 1: SR is measured, Case 2: SR is measured but sparse and Case 3: SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the simulated large-scale information of global climate models to a local scale ( measurements). In Case 2, the SR was first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, and then future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3: the SR was first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time period using complete or sparse measured records of SR from which SR at the local scale was estimated. Finally, the future scenarios were derived using several downscaling methodologies. The lack of observed SR data, especially in developing countries, has hindered various climate change impact studies. Hence, this was further elaborated by applying the Case 3 methodology to a semi-arid Malaprabha reservoir catchment in southern India. A support vector machine was used in downscaling SR. Future monthly scenarios of SR were estimated from simulations of third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT). Results indicated a projected decrease of 0.4 to 12.2 W m(-2) yr(-1) in SR during the period 2001-2100 across the 4 scenarios. SR was calculated using the modified Hargreaves method. The decreasing trends for the future were in agreement with the simulations of SR from the CGCM3 model directly obtained for the 4 scenarios.

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

A Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Modeling River Flow Time Series: The Case of Upper Cauvery River Basin

Models of river flow time series are essential in efficient management of a river basin. It helps policy makers in developing efficient water utilization strategies to maximize the utility of scarce water resource. Time series analysis has been used extensively for modeling river flow data. The use of machine learning techniques such as support-vector regression and neural network models is gaining increasing popularity. In this paper we compare the performance of these techniques by applying it to a long-term time-series data of the inflows into the Krishnaraja Sagar reservoir (KRS) from three tributaries of the river Cauvery. In this study flow data over a period of 30 years from three different observation points established in upper Cauvery river sub-basin is analyzed to estimate their contribution to KRS. Specifically, ANN model uses a multi-layer feed forward network trained with a back-propagation algorithm and support vector regression with epsilon intensive-loss function is used. Auto-regressive moving average models are also applied to the same data. The performance of different techniques is compared using performance metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation, normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE).

Tectono-geomorphic and environmental set-up deduced during deposition of Mio-Pleistocene sediments in NW Himalaya, India

Detailed pedofacies characterization along-with lithofacies investigations of the Mio-Pleistocene Siwalik sediments exposed in the Ramnagar sub-basin have been studied so as to elucidate variability in time and space of fluvial processes and the role of intra- and extra-basinal controls on fluvial sedimentation during the evolution of the Himalayan foreland basin (HFB). Dominance of multiple, moderately to strongly developed palaeosol assemblages during deposition of Lower Siwalik (similar to 12-10.8 Ma) sediments suggest that the HFB was marked by Upland set-up of Thomas et al. (2002). Activity of intra-basinal faults on the uplands and deposition of terminal fans at different times caused the development of multiple soils. Further, detailed pedofacies along-with lithofacies studies indicate prevalence of stable tectonic conditions and development of meandering streams with broad floodplains. However, the Middle Siwalik (similar to 10.8-4.92 Ma) sub-group is marked by multistoried sandstones and minor mudstone and mainly weakly developed palaeosols, indicating deposition by large braided rivers in the form of megafans in a Lowland set-up of Thomas et al. (2002). Significant change in nature and size of rivers from the Lower to Middle Siwalik at similar to 10 Ma is found almost throughout of the basin from Kohat Plateau (Pakistan) to Nepal because the Himalayan orogeny witnessed its greatest tectonic upheaval at this time leading to attainment of great heights by the Himalaya, intensification of the monsoon, development of large rivers systems and a high rate of sedimentation, hereby a major change from the Upland set-up to the Lowland set-up over major parts of the HFB. An interesting geomorphic environmental set-up prevailed in the Ramnagar sub-basin during deposition of the studied Upper Siwalik (similar to 4.92 to <1.68 Ma) sediments as observed from the degree of pedogenesis and the type of palaeosols. In general, the Upper Siwalik sub-group in the Ramnagar sub-basin is subdivided from bottom to top into the Purmandal sandstone (4.92-4.49 Ma), Nagrota (4.49-1.68 Ma) and Boulder Conglomerate (<1.68 Ma) formations on the basis of sedimentological characters and change in dominant lithology. Presence of mudstone, a few thin gravel beds and dominant sandstone lithology with weakly to moderately developed palaeosols in the Purmandal sandstone Fm. indicates deposition by shallow braided fluvial streams. The deposition of mudstone dominant Nagrota Fm. with moderately to some well developed palaeosols and a zone of gleyed palaeosols with laminated mudstones and thin sandstones took place in an environment marked by numerous small lakes, water-logged regions and small streams in an environment just south of the Piedmont zone, perhaps similar to what is happening presently in the Upland region/the Upper Gangetic plain. This area is locally called the `Trai region' (Pascoe, 1964). Deposition of Boulder Conglomerate Fm. took place by gravelly braided river system close to the Himalayan Ranges. Activity along the Main Boundary Fault led to progradation of these environments distal-ward and led to development of on the whole a coarsening upward sequence. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of Data Driven Techniques for Short Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting in Mahanadi basin

Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Self-assembled gold nanofilms as a simple, recoverable and recyclable catalyst for nitro-reduction

Hexaazamacrocycle (L) stabilized gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) were prepared by combining L with HAuCl4 center dot 3H(2)O in a variety of alcohol-water (1 : 1) mixtures. The dual roles of L as a reducing and stabilizing agent were exploited for the synthesis of AuNPs under the optimized ratio of L to Au3+ (2 : 1). Self-assembled gold nanofilms (AuNFs) were constructed at liquid-liquid interfaces by adding equal volumes of hexane to the dispersions of AuNPs in the alcohol-water systems. The nanofilms were formed spontaneously by shaking the two-phase mixture for a minute followed by standing. The alcohols explored for the self-assembly phenomenon were methanol, ethanol, i-propanol and t-butanol. The systems containing methanol or t-butanol resulted in AuNFs at the interfaces, whereas the other two alcohols were found not suitable and the AuNPs remained dispersed in the corresponding alcohol-water medium. The AuNFs prepared under suitable conditions were coated on a variety of surfaces by the dip and lift-off method/solvent removal approach. The AuNFs were characterized by UV-vis, SEM, TEM, AFM and contact angle measurement techniques. A coated glass-vial or cuvette was used as a catalytic reservoir for nitro-reduction reactions under ambient and aqueous conditions using NaBH4 as the reducing agent. The reduced products (amines) were extracted by aqueous work-up using ethyl acetate followed by evaporation of the organic layer; the isolated products required no further purification. The catalyst was recovered by simply decanting the reaction mixture whereupon the isolated catalyst remained coated inside the vessel. The recovered catalyst was found to be equally efficient for further catalytic cycles.

Appraisal of groundwater resource in Holocene soil deposits by resistivity, hydrochemical and granulomerial studies in the Gulf of Mannar Coast from Southern India

This article is aimed to delineate groundwater sources in Holocene deposits area in the Gulf of Mannar Coast from Southern India. For this purpose 2-D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), hydrochemical and granulomerical studies were carried out and integrated to identify hydrogeological structures and portable groundwater resource in shallow depths which in general appears in the coastal tracts. The 2-D ERT was used to determine the two-dimensional subsurface geological formations by multicore cable with Wenner array. Low resistivity of 1-5 Omega m for saline water appeared due to calcite at the depth of about 5 m below the ground level (bgl). Sea water intrusion was observed around the maximum resistivity as 5 Omega m at the 8 m depth, bgl in the calcite environs, but the calcareous sandstone layer shows around 15-64 Omega m at the 6 m depth, bgl. The hydrochemical variation of TDS, HCO3-, Cl-, Na+, K+, Ca2+, and Mg2+ concentrations was observed for the saline and sea water intrusion in the groundwater system. The granulometic analysis shows that the study area was under the sea between 5400 and 3000 year ago. The events of ice melting an unnatural ice-stone rain/hail among 5000-4000 years ago resulted in the inundation of sea over the area and deposits of late Holocene marine transgression formation up to Puthukottai quartzite region for a stretch of around 17 km.

Structure and Dynamics of Octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane Confined between Mica Surfaces

Using a molecular model for octamethylcydotetrasiloxane (OMCTS), molecular dynamics simulations are carried out to probe the phase state of OMCTS confined between two mica surfaces in equilibrium With a reservoir. Molecular dynamics simulations are carried out for elevations ranging from 5 to 35 K above the melting point for the OMCTS model used in this study. The Helmholtz free energy is, computed for a specific confinement using the :two-phase thermodynamic (2PT) method. Analysis of the in-plane pair correlation functions did not reveal signatures of freezing even under an extreme confinement of two layers. OMCTS is found to orient with a wide distribution of orientations with respect to the mica surface, with a distinct preference for the surface parallel configuration in the contact layers. The self-intermediate scattering function is found to decay with increasing relaxation times as the surface separation is decreased, and the two-step relaxation in the scattering function, a signature of glassy dynamics, distinctly evolves as the temperature is lowered. However, even at 5 K above the melting point, we did not observe a freezing transition and the self-intermediate scattering functions relax within 200 ps for the seven-layered confined system. The self diffusivity and relaxation times obtained from the Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts stretched exponential fits to the late alpha-relaxation exhibit power law scalings with the packing fraction as predicted by mode coupling theory. A distinct discontinuity in the Helmholtz free energy, potential energy, and a sharp change in the local bond order parameter, Q(4), was observed at 230 K for a five-layered system upon cooling, indicative of a first-order transition. A freezing point depression of about 30 K was observed for this five-layered confined system, and at the lower temperatures, contact layers were found to be disordered with long-range order present only in the inner layers. These dynamical signatures indicate that confined OMCTS undergoes a slowdown akin to a fluid approaching a glass transition upon increasing confinement, and freezing under confinement would require substantial subcooling below the bulk melting point of OMCTS.