Multi-agent simulation of competitive electricity markets: Autonomous systems cooperation for European market modeling

The electricity market restructuring, and its worldwide evolution into regional and even continental scales, along with the increasing necessity for an adequate integration of renewable energy sources, is resulting in a rising complexity in power systems operation. Several power system simulators have been developed in recent years with the purpose of helping operators, regulators, and involved players to understand and deal with this complex and constantly changing environment. The main contribution of this paper is given by the integration of several electricity market and power system models, respecting to the reality of different countries. This integration is done through the development of an upper ontology which integrates the essential concepts necessary to interpret all the available information. The continuous development of Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets platform provides the means for the exemplification of the usefulness of this ontology. A case study using the proposed multi-agent platform is presented, considering a scenario based on real data that simulates the European Electricity Market environment, and comparing its performance using different market mechanisms. The main goal is to demonstrate the advantages that the integration of various market models and simulation platforms have for the study of the electricity markets’ evolution.

Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

Thesis submitted to the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Engineering

Risk-factors for non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy

Cross-sectional study analyzed as case-control to identify risk factors for non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy. We studied 412 out-clinics HIV infected subjects of three public hospitals of Recife, Pernambuco. The objective was to examine the association between non-adherence to the antiretroviral therapy and biological, social-behavior and demographics and economic factors, factors related to the disease and/or treatment, factors related to life habits and depression symptoms. Variables significantly associated with non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy were: time elapsed since HIV diagnosis (p = 0.002), daily dose (p = 0.046), use of alcohol (p = 0.030) and past drug use (p = 0.048), and borderline p-values were found for educational level (p = 0.093) and family monthly income (p = 0.08). In the multivariable analysis, the factors that remained in the final model were family monthly income, time period with HIV infection and use of alcohol. No association was observed between non-adherence to antiretroviral therapy and gender, age, sexual orientation, marital status, educational level and place of residence. Based on our results and the local situation we suggest: assessment of social needs; training of partners and/or families on supporting adherence, creation of "adherence groups" to motivate and to reassure patients on the benefits of treatment; counseling and/or psychotherapy for alcohol drinkers.

High prevalence and association of HIV-1 non-B subtype with specific sexual transmission risk among antiretroviral naïve patients in Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

In South Brazil the circulation of two HIV-1 subtypes with different characteristics represents an important scenario for the study of the impact of HIV-1 diversity on the evolution of the HIV-1 epidemic and AIDS disease. HIV-1 B, the predominant variant in industrialized countries and HIV-1 C, the most prevalent subtype in areas with rapid epidemic growth, are implicated in most infections. We evaluated blood samples from 128 antiretroviral (ARV) naïve patients recruited at entry to the largest HIV outpatient service in Porto Alegre. Based on partial pol region sequencing, HIV-1 C was observed in 29%, HIV-1 B in 22.6% and, the recently identified CRF31_BC, in 23.4% of 128 volunteers. Other variants were HIV-1 F in 10% and other mosaics in 5.5%. In order to evaluate the association of socio-behavioral characteristics and HIV-1 subtypes, interviews and laboratory evaluation were performed at entry. Our data suggest an established epidemic of the three major variants, without any evidence of partitioning in either of the subgroups analyzed. However, anal sex practices were associated with subtype B, which could indicate a greater transmissibility of non-B variants by vaginal intercourse. This study provides baseline information for epidemiologic surveillance of the changes of the molecular characteristics of HIV-1 epidemics in this region.

Adaptive modeling and high quality spectral estimation for speech enhancement

In this work an adaptive modeling and spectral estimation scheme based on a dual Discrete Kalman Filtering (DKF) is proposed for speech enhancement. Both speech and noise signals are modeled by an autoregressive structure which provides an underlying time frame dependency and improves time-frequency resolution. The model parameters are arranged to obtain a combined state-space model and are also used to calculate instantaneous power spectral density estimates. The speech enhancement is performed by a dual discrete Kalman filter that simultaneously gives estimates for the models and the signals. This approach is particularly useful as a pre-processing module for parametric based speech recognition systems that rely on spectral time dependent models. The system performance has been evaluated by a set of human listeners and by spectral distances. In both cases the use of this pre-processing module has led to improved results.

A Multiple Criteria Utility-based Approa h for the Unit Commitment with Wind Power and Pumped Storage Hydro

The integration of wind power in eletricity generation brings new challenges to unit commitment due to the random nature of wind speed. For this particular optimisation problem, wind uncertainty has been handled in practice by means of conservative stochastic scenario-based optimisation models, or through additional operating reserve settings. However, generation companies may have different attitudes towards operating costs, load curtailment, or waste of wind energy, when considering the risk caused by wind power variability. Therefore, alternative and possibly more adequate approaches should be explored. This work is divided in two main parts. Firstly we survey the main formulations presented in the literature for the integration of wind power in the unit commitment problem (UCP) and present an alternative model for the wind-thermal unit commitment. We make use of the utility theory concepts to develop a multi-criteria stochastic model. The objectives considered are the minimisation of costs, load curtailment and waste of wind energy. Those are represented by individual utility functions and aggregated in a single additive utility function. This last function is adequately linearised leading to a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) model that can be tackled by general-purpose solvers in order to find the most preferred solution. In the second part we discuss the integration of pumped-storage hydro (PSH) units in the UCP with large wind penetration. Those units can provide extra flexibility by using wind energy to pump and store water in the form of potential energy that can be generated after during peak load periods. PSH units are added to the first model, yielding a MILP model with wind-hydro-thermal coordination. Results showed that the proposed methodology is able to reflect the risk profiles of decision makers for both models. By including PSH units, the results are significantly improved.

Reabilitação cardíaca home-based monitorizada à distância por tecnologias de informação e comunicação: Uma revisão sistemática

Introdução: Cada vez mais a Reabilitação Cardíaca (RC) tem um início precoce no tratamento e nas necessidades do paciente no sentido de promover a sua autonomia e responsabilização pela recuperação, através de uma abordagem multidisciplinar. Os programas home-based e a inclusão das tecnologias de informação e comunicação são soluções atrativas para o aumento da participação dos doentes selecionados e inclusão de grupos de doentes atualmente sub-representados. Objetivos: Sistematizar a evidência científica atual sobre a efetividade dos programas de reabilitação cardíaca home-based com controlo á distância através da aplicação de novas tecnologias, comparando-a com a reabilitação centre-based/hospital-based, ao nível da adesão e da atividade física. Métodos: Este trabalho consiste numa revisão sistemática da literatura publicada entre 2007 e 2014, através de uma pesquisa em diferentes bases de dados eletrónicas científicas (Elsevier – Science Direct, PEDro, PubMed, Scielo Portugal e B-on) com as palavras-chave: reabilitação cardíaca, home-based, centre-based, hospital-based, reabilitação exercise-based, telemonitorização, smartphone, internet, atividade física, em todas as combinações possíveis. Os estudos foram analisados independentemente por dois revisores quanto aos critérios de inclusão e qualidade dos estudos. Resultados: Dos 101 estudos identificados, apenas dez foram incluídos. Considerando a escala da PEDro, quatro estudos obtiveram um score 5, quatro, um score de 6, e 2 com um score de 7 em 10. Os estudos foram realizados em adultos com idades compreendidas entre os 18 e os 80 anos. Os programas de intervenção dividiram-se em planeamento de atividade física e em autogestão. Todos os programas de exercício físico conduziram a um aumento da capacidade de exercício e consequente, maior controlo de fatores de risco. Pelos níveis de adesão aos PRC home-based e pelos resultados positivos de diferentes parâmetros em relação a reabilitação centre-based/hospital-based é notável a efetividade da telemonitorização baseada em casa. Conclusão: A telemonitorização domiciliária constitui um elemento fundamental para a solução de numerosos problemas destes doentes, tornando-se em métodos simples e de fácil funcionamento para haver sucesso nas taxas de adesão. Com efeito, a utilização das tecnologias de informação e de comunicação permite uma prestação e gestão eficazes dos cuidados de saúde no domicílio.

Modeling assembly program with constraints. A contribution to WCET problem

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Lógica Computacional

Sepsis Mortality Prediction Based on Predisposition, Infection and Response

OBJECTIVE: To empirically test, based on a large multicenter, multinational database, whether a modified PIRO (predisposition, insult, response, and organ dysfunction) concept could be applied to predict mortality in patients with infection and sepsis. DESIGN: Substudy of a multicenter multinational cohort study (SAPS 3). PATIENTS: A total of 2,628 patients with signs of infection or sepsis who stayed in the ICU for >48 h. Three boxes of variables were defined, according to the PIRO concept. Box 1 (Predisposition) contained information about the patient's condition before ICU admission. Box 2 (Injury) contained information about the infection at ICU admission. Box 3 (Response) was defined as the response to the infection, expressed as a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score after 48 h. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Most of the infections were community acquired (59.6%); 32.5% were hospital acquired. The median age of the patients was 65 (50-75) years, and 41.1% were female. About 22% (n=576) of the patients presented with infection only, 36.3% (n=953) with signs of sepsis, 23.6% (n=619) with severe sepsis, and 18.3% (n=480) with septic shock. Hospital mortality was 40.6% overall, greater in those with septic shock (52.5%) than in those with infection (34.7%). Several factors related to predisposition, infection and response were associated with hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: The proposed three-level system, by using objectively defined criteria for risk of mortality in sepsis, could be used by physicians to stratify patients at ICU admission or shortly thereafter, contributing to a better selection of management according to the risk of death.

Long-Term Evaluation of Recurrence after Photodynamic Therapy with Topical Methyl Aminolevulinate for Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer: a Hospital-Based Study

Introduction & Objectives: Several factors may influence the decision to pursue nonsurgical modalities for the treatment of non-melanoma skin cancer. Topical photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a non-invasive alternative treatment reported to have a high efficacy when using standardized protocols in Bowen’s disease (BD), superficial basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and in thin nodular BCC. However, long-term recurrence studies are lacking. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term efficacy of PDT with topical methylaminolevulinate (MAL) for the treatment of BD and BCC in a dermato-oncology department. Materials & Methods: All patients with the diagnosis of BD or BCC, treated with MAL-PDT from the years 2004 to 2008, were enrolled. Treatment protocol included two MAL-PDT sessions one week apart repeated at three months when incomplete response, using a red light dose of 37-40 J/cm2 and an exposure time of 8’20’’. Clinical records were retrospectively reviewed, and data regarding age, sex, tumour location, size, treatment outcomes and recurrence were registered. Descriptive analysis was performed using chi square tests, followed by survival analysis with the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models. Results: Sixty-eight patients (median age 71.0 years, P25;P75=30;92) with a total of 78 tumours (31 BD, 45 superficial BCC, 2 nodular BCC) and a median tumour size of 5 cm2 were treated. Overall, the median follow-up period was 43.5 months (P25;P75=0;100), and a total recurrence rate of 33.8% was observed (24.4 % for BCC vs. 45.2% for BD). Estimated recurrence rates for BCC and BD were 5.0% vs. 7.4% at 6 months, 23.4% vs. 27.9% at 12 months, and 30.0% vs. 72.4% at 60 months. Both age and diagnosis were independent prognostic factors for recurrence, with significantly higher estimated recurrence rates in patients with BD (p=0.0036) or younger than 58 years old (p=0.039). The risk of recurrence (hazard ratio) was 2.4 times higher in patients with BD compared to superficial BCC (95% CI:1.1-5.3; p=0.033), and 2.8 times higher in patients younger than 58 years old (95% CI:1.2-6.5; p=0.02). Conclusions: In the studied population, estimated recurrence rates are higher than those expected from available literature, possibly due to a longer follow-up period. To the authors’ knowledge there is only one other study with a similar follow-up period, regarding BCC solely. BD, as an in situ squamous cell carcinoma, has a higher tendency to recur than superficial BCC. Despite greater cosmesis, PDT might no be the best treatment option for young patients considering their higher risk of recurrence.

Urban sprawl analysis and modeling in Asmara, Eritreia: Application of Geospatial Tools

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Urban land cover change detection analysis and modeling spatio-temporal Growth dynamics using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques: A case study of Dhaka, Bangladesh

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

A Web based geospatial application for disaster preparedness in Uganda

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.