A review of the accuracy and utility of motion sensors to measure physical activity of frail older hospitalised patients.

The purpose of this review was to examine the utility and accuracy of commercially available motion sensors to measure step-count and time spent upright in frail older hospitalized patients. A database search (CINAHL and PubMed, 2004–2014) and a further hand search of papers’ references yielded 24 validation studies meeting the inclusion criteria. Fifteen motion sensors (eight pedometers, six accelerometers, and one sensor systems) have been tested in older adults. Only three have been tested in hospital patients, two of which detected postures and postural changes accurately, but none estimated step-count accurately. Only one motion sensor remained accurate at speeds typical of frail older hospitalized patients, but it has yet to be tested in this cohort. Time spent upright can be accurately measured in the hospital, but further validation studies are required to determine which, if any, motion sensor can accurately measure step-count.

Eyewitness Memory: Balancing the Accuracy, Precision, and Quantity of Information through Metacognitive Monitoring and Control

Historically, memory has been evaluated by examining how much is remembered, however a more recent conception of memory focuses on the accuracy of memories. When using this accuracy-oriented conception of memory, unlike with the quantity-oriented approach, memory does not always deteriorate over time. A possible explanation for this seemingly surprising finding lies in the metacognitive processes of monitoring and control. Use of these processes allows people to withhold responses of which they are unsure, or to adjust the precision of responses to a level that is broad enough to be correct. The ability to accurately report memories has implications for investigators who interview witnesses to crimes, and those who evaluate witness testimony. This research examined the amount of information provided, accuracy, and precision of responses provided during immediate and delayed interviews about a videotaped mock crime. The interview format was manipulated such that a single free narrative response was elicited, or a series of either yes/no or cued questions were asked. Instructions provided by the interviewer indicated to the participants that they should either stress being informative, or being accurate. The interviews were then transcribed and scored. Results indicate that accuracy rates remained stable and high after a one week delay. Compared to those interviewed immediately, after a delay participants provided less information and responses that were less precise. Participants in the free narrative condition were the most accurate. Participants in the cued questions condition provided the most precise responses. Participants in the yes/no questions condition were most likely to say “I don’t know”. The results indicate that people are able to monitor their memories and modify their reports to maintain high accuracy. When control over precision was not possible, such as in the yes/no condition, people said “I don’t know” to maintain accuracy. However when withholding responses and adjusting precision were both possible, people utilized both methods. It seems that concerns that memories reported after a long retention interval might be inaccurate are unfounded.

Improved Accuracy in Optical Motion Capture Measurements Leads to Increased Sensitivity to Kinematic Changes

Clinical optical motion capture allows us to obtain kinematic and kinetic outcome measures that aid clinicians in diagnosing and treating different pathologies affecting healthy gait. The long term aim for gait centres is for subject-specific analyses that can predict, prevent, or reverse the effects of pathologies through gait retraining. To track the body, anatomical segment coordinate systems are commonly created by applying markers to the surface of the skin over specific, bony anatomy that is manually palpated. The location and placement of these markers is subjective and precision errors of up to 25mm have been reported [1]. Additionally, the selection of which anatomical landmarks to use in segment models can result in large angular differences; for example angular differences in the trunk can range up to 53o for the same motion depending on marker placement [2]. These errors can result in erroneous kinematic outcomes that either diminish or increase the apparent effects of a treatment or pathology compared to healthy data. Our goal was to improve the accuracy and precision of optical motion capture outcome measures. This thesis describes two separate studies. In the first study we aimed to establish an approach that would allow us to independently quantify the error among trunk models. Using this approach we determined if there was a best model to accurately track trunk motion. In the second study we designed a device to improve precision for test, re-test protocols that would also reduce the set-up time for motion capture experiments. Our method to compare a kinematically derived centre of mass velocity to one that was derived kinetically was successful in quantifying error among trunk models. Our findings indicate that models that use lateral shoulder markers as well as limit the translational degrees of freedom of the trunk through shared pelvic markers result in the least amount of error for the tasks we studied. We also successfully reduced intra- and inter-operator anatomical marker placement errors using a marker alignment device. The improved accuracy and precision resulting from the methods established in this thesis may lead to increased sensitivity to changes in kinematics, and ultimately result in more consistent treatment outcomes.

Speed and Accuracy of People's Trustworthiness Judgment across Cultures

Previous research on person perception has shown that people form first impressions with remarkable speed and accuracy, but relatively little is known about the speed and accuracy of trustworthiness judgments across cultures. The present research examined these by asking Chinese and Canadians to infer trustworthiness from faces of criminals and non-criminals from different cultural backgrounds across two domains (i.e., financial crime in Study 1 and violent crime in Study 2). Across both studies, we found that when participants were given time and opportunity, Chinese tended to take a longer time than Canadians to make trustworthiness judgments (although this difference did not reach statistical significance in Study 2). In Study 1, we found that perceivers from both cultures were accurate at judging European North Americans (ENA) corporate criminals as less trustworthy than ENA non-criminal executives, although they did not differentiate Asian corporate criminals from Asian non-criminal executives. In Study 2, we found that perceivers from both cultures were accurate at judging both Asian and ENA violent criminals as less trustworthy than Asian and ENA non-criminals. Chinese were also accurate at rating Middle Eastern violent criminals as less trustworthy than Middle Eastern non-criminals, but Canadians did not differentiate them in terms of their trustworthiness ratings. In terms of their crime likelihood ratings, however, both Chinese and Canadians accurately rated all the criminals as more likely to commit violent crimes than the non-criminals, regardless of the targets’ ethnicities. Finally, we discussed some of the practical implications of our findings on detection of deception, as well as how providing a context for trustworthiness judgments might have played an important role in people’s judgmental accuracy.

STARD 2015: an updated list of essential items for reporting diagnostic accuracy studies

Incomplete reporting has been identified as a major source of avoidable waste in biomedical research.
Essential information is often not provided in study reports, impeding the identification, critical
appraisal, and replication of studies. To improve the quality of reporting of diagnostic accuracy
studies, the Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy (STARD) statement was developed. Here
we present STARD 2015, an updated list of 30 essential items that should be included in every
report of a diagnostic accuracy study. This update incorporates recent evidence about sources of
bias and variability in diagnostic accuracy and is intended to facilitate the use of STARD. As such,
STARD 2015 may help to improve completeness and transparency in reporting of diagnostic accuracy
studies.

Comparison of DES predictions of turbulent flow and heat transfer in a 45° ribbed duct

Numerical predictions of the turbulent flow and heat transfer of a stationary duct with square ribs 45° angled to the main flow direction are presented. The rib height to channel hydraulic diameter is 0.1, the rib pitch to rib height is 10. The calculations have been carried out for a bulk Reynolds number of 50,000. The flows generated by ribs are dominated by separating and reattaching shear layers with vortex shedding and secondary flows in the cross-section. The hybrid RANS-LES approach is adopted to simulate such flows at a reasonable computation cost. The capability of the various versions of DES method, depending the RANS model, such as DES-SA, DES-RKE, DES-SST, have been compared and validated against the experiment. The significant effect of RANS model on the accuracy of the DES prediction has been shown. The DES-SST method, which was able to reproduce the correct physics of flow and heat transfer in a ribbed duct showed better performance than others.

Temporal aggregation of migration counts can improve accuracy and precision of trends

Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual) using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB) or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1) in the wrong direction, or (2) with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.

The Accuracy and Reliability of Traditional Surface Flow Type Mapping: Is It Time for A New Method of Characterising Physical River Habitat?

Surface flow types (SFT) are advocated as ecologically relevant hydraulic units, often mapped visually from the bankside to characterise rapidly the physical habitat of rivers. SFT mapping is simple, non-invasive and cost-efficient. However, it is also qualitative, subjective and plagued by difficulties in recording accurately the spatial extent of SFT units. Quantitative validation of the underlying physical habitat parameters is often lacking, and does not consistently differentiate between SFTs. Here, we investigate explicitly the accuracy, reliability and statistical separability of traditionally mapped SFTs as indicators of physical habitat, using independent, hydraulic and topographic data collected during three surveys of a c. 50m reach of the River Arrow, Warwickshire, England. We also explore the potential of a novel remote sensing approach, comprising a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry (SfM), as an alternative method of physical habitat characterisation. Our key findings indicate that SFT mapping accuracy is highly variable, with overall mapping accuracy not exceeding 74%. Results from analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) tests found that strong differences did not exist between all SFT pairs. This leads us to question the suitability of SFTs for characterising physical habitat for river science and management applications. In contrast, the sUAS-SfM approach provided high resolution, spatially continuous, spatially explicit, quantitative measurements of water depth and point cloud roughness at the microscale (spatial scales ≤1m). Such data are acquired rapidly, inexpensively, and provide new opportunities for examining the heterogeneity of physical habitat over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Whilst continued refinement of the sUAS-SfM approach is required, we propose that this method offers an opportunity to move away from broad, mesoscale classifications of physical habitat (spatial scales 10-100m), and towards continuous, quantitative measurements of the continuum of hydraulic and geomorphic conditions which actually exists at the microscale.

Group Forecasting Accuracy in Hotels

Yield management helps hotels more profitably manage the capacity of their rooms. Hotels tend to have two types of business: transient and group. Yield management research and systems have been designed for transient business in which the group forecast is taken as a given. In this research, forecast data from approximately 90 hotels of a large North American hotel chain were used to determine the accuracy of group forecasts and to identify factors associated with accurate forecasts. Forecasts showed a positive bias and had a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 40% at two months before arrival; 30% at one month before arrival; and 10-15% on the day of arrival. Larger hotels, hotels with a higher dependence on group business, and hotels that updated their forecasts frequently during the month before arrival had more accurate forecasts.

Improving the Accuracy of 3-D Reconstruction in Robotic Vision Applications

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Perceptual load affects eyewitness accuracy and susceptibility to leading questions

Load Theory (Lavie, 1995, 2005) states that the level of perceptual load in a task (i.e.,the amount of information involved in processing task-relevant stimuli) determines the efficiency of selective attention. There is evidence that perceptual load affects distractor processing, with increased inattentional blindness under high load. Given that high load can result in individuals failing to report seeing obvious objects, it is conceivable that load may also impair memory for the scene. The current study is the first to assess the effect of perceptual load on eyewitness memory. Across three experiments (two video-based and one in a driving simulator), the effect of perceptual load on eyewitness memory was assessed. The results showed that eyewitnesses were less accurate under high load, in particular for peripheral details. For example, memory for the central character in the video was not affected by load but memory for a witness who passed by the window at the edge of the scene was significantly worse under high load. High load memories were also more open to suggestion, showing increased susceptibility to leading questions. High visual perceptual load also affected recall for auditory information, illustrating a possible cross-modal perceptual load effect on memory accuracy. These results have implications for eyewitness memory researchers and forensic professionals.