Multi-dimensional Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Spectrum Sensing Based on Stochastic Distances

In this paper, we study two multi-dimensional Goodness-of-Fit tests for spectrum sensing in cognitive radios. The multi-dimensional scenario refers to multiple CR nodes, each with multiple antennas, that record multiple observations from multiple primary users for spectrum sensing. These tests, viz., the Interpoint Distance (ID) based test and the h, f distance based tests are constructed based on the properties of stochastic distances. The ID test is studied in detail for a single CR node case, and a possible extension to handle multiple nodes is discussed. On the other hand, the h, f test is applicable in a multi-node setup. A robustness feature of the KL distance based test is discussed, which has connections with Middleton's class A model. Through Monte-Carlo simulations, the proposed tests are shown to outperform the existing techniques such as the eigenvalue ratio based test, John's test, and the sphericity test, in several scenarios.

Fixed-lag blind equalization and sequence estimation in digital communications systems using sequential importance sampling

We present methods for fixed-lag smoothing using Sequential Importance sampling (SIS) on a discrete non-linear, non-Gaussian state space system with unknown parameters. Our particular application is in the field of digital communication systems. Each input data point is taken from a finite set of symbols. We represent transmission media as a fixed filter with a finite impulse response (FIR), hence a discrete state-space system is formed. Conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques such as the Gibbs sampler are unsuitable for this task because they can only perform processing on a batch of data. Data arrives sequentially, so it would seem sensible to process it in this way. In addition, many communication systems are interactive, so there is a maximum level of latency that can be tolerated before a symbol is decoded. We will demonstrate this method by simulation and compare its performance to existing techniques.

Robust modelling of noisy ARMA signals

In this paper methods are developed for enhancement and analysis of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) signals observed in additive noise which can be represented as mixtures of heavy-tailed non-Gaussian sources and a Gaussian background component. Such models find application in systems such as atmospheric communications channels or early sound recordings which are prone to intermittent impulse noise. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniques are applied to the joint problem of signal extraction, model parameter estimation and detection of impulses within a fully Bayesian framework. The algorithms require only simple linear iterations for all of the unknowns, including the MA parameters, which is in contrast with existing MCMC methods for analysis of noise-free ARMA models. The methods are illustrated using synthetic data and noise-degraded sound recordings.

Sequential decision making in general state space models

Many problems in control and signal processing can be formulated as sequential decision problems for general state space models. However, except for some simple models one cannot obtain analytical solutions and has to resort to approximation. In this thesis, we have investigated problems where Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods can be combined with a gradient based search to provide solutions to online optimisation problems. We summarise the main contributions of the thesis as follows. Chapter 4 focuses on solving the sensor scheduling problem when cast as a controlled Hidden Markov Model. We consider the case in which the state, observation and action spaces are continuous. This general case is important as it is the natural framework for many applications. In sensor scheduling, our aim is to minimise the variance of the estimation error of the hidden state with respect to the action sequence. We present a novel SMC method that uses a stochastic gradient algorithm to find optimal actions. This is in contrast to existing works in the literature that only solve approximations to the original problem. In Chapter 5 we presented how an SMC can be used to solve a risk sensitive control problem. We adopt the use of the Feynman-Kac representation of a controlled Markov chain flow and exploit the properties of the logarithmic Lyapunov exponent, which lead to a policy gradient solution for the parameterised problem. The resulting SMC algorithm follows a similar structure with the Recursive Maximum Likelihood(RML) algorithm for online parameter estimation. In Chapters 6, 7 and 8, dynamic Graphical models were combined with with state space models for the purpose of online decentralised inference. We have concentrated more on the distributed parameter estimation problem using two Maximum Likelihood techniques, namely Recursive Maximum Likelihood (RML) and Expectation Maximization (EM). The resulting algorithms can be interpreted as an extension of the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm to compute likelihood gradients. In order to design an SMC algorithm, in Chapter 8 uses a nonparametric approximations for Belief Propagation. The algorithms were successfully applied to solve the sensor localisation problem for sensor networks of small and medium size.

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

Development of an efficient particle approach for micro-scale gas flow simulations

The micro-scale gas flows are usually low-speed flows and exhibit rarefied gas effects. It is challenging to simulate these flows because traditional CFD method is unable to capture the rarefied gas effects and the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is very inefficient for low-speed flows. In this study we combine two techniques to improve the efficiency of the DSMC method. The information preservation technique is used to reduce the statistical noise and the cell-size relaxed technique is employed to increase the effective cell size. The new cell-size relaxed IP method is found capable of simulating micro-scale gas flows as shown by the 2D lid-driven cavity flows.

The deep ocean density structure at the Last Glacial Maximum : What was it and why?

The search for reliable proxies of past deep ocean temperature and salinity has proved difficult, thereby limiting our ability to understand the coupling of ocean circulation and climate over glacial-interglacial timescales. Previous inferences of deep ocean temperature and salinity from sediment pore fluid oxygen isotopes and chlorinity indicate that the deep ocean density structure at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, approximately 20,000 years BP) was set by salinity, and that the density contrast between northern and southern sourced deep waters was markedly greater than in the modern ocean. High density stratification could help explain the marked contrast in carbon isotope distribution recorded in the LGM ocean relative to that we observe today, but what made the ocean's density structure so different at the LGM? How did it evolve from one state to another? Further, given the sparsity of the LGM temperature and salinity data set, what else can we learn by increasing the spatial density of proxy records?

We investigate the cause and feasibility of a highly and salinity stratified deep ocean at the LGM and we work to increase the amount of information we can glean about the past ocean from pore fluid profiles of oxygen isotopes and chloride. Using a coupled ocean--sea ice--ice shelf cavity model we test whether the deep ocean density structure at the LGM can be explained by ice--ocean interactions over the Antarctic continental shelves, and show that a large contribution of the LGM salinity stratification can be explained through lower ocean temperature. In order to extract the maximum information from pore fluid profiles of oxygen isotopes and chloride we evaluate several inverse methods for ill-posed problems and their ability to recover bottom water histories from sediment pore fluid profiles. We demonstrate that Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation techniques enable us to robustly recover the full solution space of bottom water histories, not only at the LGM, but through the most recent deglaciation and the Holocene up to the present. Finally, we evaluate a non-destructive pore fluid sampling technique, Rhizon samplers, in comparison to traditional squeezing methods and show that despite their promise, Rhizons are unlikely to be a good sampling tool for pore fluid measurements of oxygen isotopes and chloride.

Studies of molecular bonding, interactions and decomposition reactions on the (001) surface of ruthenium

The interactions of N₂, formic acid and acetone on the Ru(001) surface are studied using thermal desorption mass spectrometry (TDMS), electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS), and computer modeling.

Low energy electron diffraction (LEED), EELS and TDMS were used to study chemisorption of N₂ on Ru(001). Adsorption at 75 K produces two desorption states. Adsorption at 95 K fills only the higher energy desorption state and produces a (√3 x √3)R30° LEED pattern. EEL spectra indicate both desorption states are populated by N₂ molecules bonded "on-top" of Ru atoms.

Monte Carlo simulation results are presented on Ru(001) using a kinetic lattice gas model with precursor mediated adsorption, desorption and migration. The model gives good agreement with experimental data. The island growth rate was computed using the same model and is well fit by R(t)^m - R(t₀)^m = At, with m approximately 8. The island size was determined from the width of the superlattice diffraction feature.

The techniques, algorithms and computer programs used for simulations are documented. Coordinate schemes for indexing sites on a 2-D hexagonal lattice, programs for simulation of adsorption and desorption, techniques for analysis of ordering, and computer graphics routines are discussed.

The adsorption of formic acid on Ru(001) has been studied by EELS and TDMS. Large exposures produce a molecular multilayer species. A monodentate formate, bidentate formate, and a hydroxyl species are stable intermediates in formic acid decomposition. The monodentate formate species is converted to the bidentate species by heating. Formic acid decomposition products are CO₂, CO, H₂, H₂O and oxygen adatoms. The ratio of desorbed CO with respect to CO₂ increases both with slower heating rates and with lower coverages.

The existence of two different forms of adsorbed acetone, side-on, bonded through the oxygen and acyl carbon, and end-on, bonded through the oxygen, have been verified by EELS. On Pt(111), only the end-on species is observed. On dean Ru(001) and p(2 x 2)O precovered Ru(001), both forms coexist. The side-on species is dominant on clean Ru(001), while O stabilizes the end-on form. The end-on form desorbs molecularly. Bonding geometry stability is explained by surface Lewis acidity and by comparison to organometallic coordination complexes.

On the solution of first excursion problems by simulation with applications to probabilistic seismic performance assessment

In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.

Influence of composition on the structure, electric and magnetic properties of Pd-Mn-P and Pd-Co-P amorphous alloys

The influence of composition on the structure and on the electric and magnetic properties of amorphous Pd-Mn-P and Pd-Co-P prepared by rapid quenching techniques were investigated in terms of (1) the 3d band filling of the first transition metal group, (2) the phosphorus concentration effect which acts as an electron donor and (3) the transition metal concentration.

The structure is essentially characterized by a set of polyhedra subunits essentially inverse to the packing of hard spheres in real space. Examination of computer generated distribution functions using Monte Carlo random statistical distribution of these polyhedra entities demonstrated tile reproducibility of the experimentally calculated atomic distribution function. As a result, several possible "structural parameters" are proposed such as: the number of nearest neighbors, the metal-to-metal distance, the degree of short-range order and the affinity between metal-metal and metal-metalloid. It is shown that the degree of disorder increases from Ni to Mn. Similar behavior is observed with increase in the phosphorus concentration.

The magnetic properties of Pd-Co-P alloys show that they are ferromagnetic with a Curie temperature between 272 and 399°K as the cobalt concentration increases from 15 to 50 at.%. Below 20 at.% Co the short-range exchange interactions which produce the ferromagnetism are unable to establish a long-range magnetic order and a peak in the magnetization shows up at the lowest temperature range . The electric resistivity measurements were performed from liquid helium temperatures up to the vicinity of the melting point (900°K). The thermomagnetic analysis was carried out under an applied field of 6.0 kOe. The electrical resistivity of Pd-Co-P shows the coexistence of a Kondo-like minimum with ferromagnetism. The minimum becomes less important as the transition metal concentration increases and the coefficients of ℓn T and T^2 become smaller and strongly temperature dependent. The negative magnetoresistivity is a strong indication of the existence of localized moment.

The temperature coefficient of resistivity which is positive for Pd- Fe-P, Pd-Ni-P, and Pd-Co-P becomes negative for Pd-Mn-P. It is possible to account for the negative temperature dependence by the localized spin fluctuation model and the high density of states at the Fermi energy which becomes maximum between Mn and Cr. The magnetization curves for Pd-Mn-P are typical of those resulting from the interplay of different exchange forces. The established relationship between susceptibility and resistivity confirms the localized spin fluctuation model. The magnetoresistivity of Pd-Mn-P could be interpreted in tenns of a short-range magnetic ordering that could arise from the Rudennan-Kittel type interactions.

Numerical Studies of Topological Phases

The topological phases of matter have been a major part of condensed matter physics research since the discovery of the quantum Hall effect in the 1980s. Recently, much of this research has focused on the study of systems of free fermions, such as the integer quantum Hall effect, quantum spin Hall effect, and topological insulator. Though these free fermion systems can play host to a variety of interesting phenomena, the physics of interacting topological phases is even richer. Unfortunately, there is a shortage of theoretical tools that can be used to approach interacting problems. In this thesis I will discuss progress in using two different numerical techniques to study topological phases.

Recently much research in topological phases has focused on phases made up of bosons. Unlike fermions, free bosons form a condensate and so interactions are vital if the bosons are to realize a topological phase. Since these phases are difficult to study, much of our understanding comes from exactly solvable models, such as Kitaev's toric code, as well as Levin-Wen and Walker-Wang models. We may want to study systems for which such exactly solvable models are not available. In this thesis I present a series of models which are not solvable exactly, but which can be studied in sign-free Monte Carlo simulations. The models work by binding charges to point topological defects. They can be used to realize bosonic interacting versions of the quantum Hall effect in 2D and topological insulator in 3D. Effective field theories of "integer" (non-fractionalized) versions of these phases were available in the literature, but our models also allow for the construction of fractional phases. We can measure a number of properties of the bulk and surface of these phases.

Few interacting topological phases have been realized experimentally, but there is one very important exception: the fractional quantum Hall effect (FQHE). Though the fractional quantum Hall effect we discovered over 30 years ago, it can still produce novel phenomena. Of much recent interest is the existence of non-Abelian anyons in FQHE systems. Though it is possible to construct wave functions that realize such particles, whether these wavefunctions are the ground state is a difficult quantitative question that must be answered numerically. In this thesis I describe progress using a density-matrix renormalization group algorithm to study a bilayer system thought to host non-Abelian anyons. We find phase diagrams in terms of experimentally relevant parameters, and also find evidence for a non-Abelian phase known as the "interlayer Pfaffian".

Desenvolvimento de um simulador para espectrometria por fluorescência de raios X usando computação distribuída

A Física das Radiações é um ramo da Física que está presente em diversas áreas de estudo e se relaciona ao conceito de espectrometria. Dentre as inúmeras técnicas espectrométricas existentes, destaca-se a espectrometria por fluorescência de raios X. Esta também possui uma gama de variações da qual pode-se dar ênfase a um determinado subconjunto de técnicas. A produção de fluorescência de raios X permite (em certos casos) a análise das propriedades físico-químicas de uma amostra específica, possibilitando a determinação de sua constituiçõa química e abrindo um leque de aplicações. Porém, o estudo experimental pode exigir uma grande carga de trabalho, tanto em termos do aparato físico quanto em relação conhecimento técnico. Assim, a técnica de simulação entra em cena como um caminho viável, entre a teoria e a experimentação. Através do método de Monte Carlo, que se utiliza da manipulação de números aleatórios, a simulação se mostra como uma espécie de alternativa ao trabalho experimental.Ela desenvolve este papel por meio de um processo de modelagem, dentro de um ambiente seguro e livre de riscos. E ainda pode contar com a computação de alto desempenho, de forma a otimizar todo o trabalho por meio da arquitetura distribuída. O objetivo central deste trabalho é a elaboração de um simulador computacional para análise e estudo de sistemas de fluorescência de raios X desenvolvido numa plataforma de computação distribuída de forma nativa com o intuito de gerar dados otimizados. Como resultados deste trabalho, mostra-se a viabilidade da construção do simulador através da linguagem CHARM++, uma linguagem baseada em C++ que incorpora rotinas para processamento distribuído, o valor da metodologia para a modelagem de sistemas e a aplicação desta na construção de um simulador para espectrometria por fluorescência de raios X. O simulador foi construído com a capacidade de reproduzir uma fonte de radiação eletromagnética, amostras complexas e um conjunto de detectores. A modelagem dos detectores incorpora a capacidade de geração de imagens baseadas nas contagens registradas. Para validação do simulador, comparou-se os resultados espectrométricos com os resultados gerados por outro simulador já validado: o MCNP.

Aplicação da Teoria do Valor Extremo e Copulas para avaliar risco de mercado de ações brasileiras

As instituições financeiras são obrigadas por acordos internacionais, como o Acordo de Basiléia, a avaliar o risco de mercado ao qual a instituição está propensa de forma a evitar possíveis contaminações de desastres financeiros em seu patrimônio. Com o intuito de capturar tais fenômenos, surge a necessidade de construir modelos que capturem com mais acurácia movimentos extremos das séries de retornos. O trabalho teve como principal objetivo aplicar a Teoria do Valor Extremo juntamente com Copulas na estimação de quantis extremos para o VaR. Ele utiliza técnicas de simulação de Monte Carlo, Teoria do Valor Extremo e Cópulas com distribuições gaussianas e t. Em contrapartida, as estimativas produzidas serão comparadas com as de um segundo modelo, chamado de simulação histórica de Monte Carlo filtrada, mais conhecida como filtered historical simulation (FHS). As técnicas serão aplicadas a um portfólio de ações de empresas brasileiras.

Estudo da quantificação de incertezas para o problema de contaminação de meios porosos heterogêneos

As técnicas de injeção de traçadores têm sido amplamente utilizadas na investigação de escoamentos em meios porosos, principalmente em problemas envolvendo a simulação numérica de escoamentos miscíveis em reservatórios de petróleo e o transporte de contaminantes em aquíferos. Reservatórios subterrâneos são em geral heterogêneos e podem apresentar variações significativas das suas propriedades em várias escalas de comprimento. Estas variações espaciais são incorporadas às equações que governam o escoamento no interior do meio poroso por meio de campos aleatórios. Estes campos podem prover uma descrição das heterogeneidades da formação subterrânea nos casos onde o conhecimento geológico não fornece o detalhamento necessário para a predição determinística do escoamento através do meio poroso. Nesta tese é empregado um modelo lognormal para o campo de permeabilidades a fim de reproduzir-se a distribuição de permeabilidades do meio real, e a geração numérica destes campos aleatórios é feita pelo método da Soma Sucessiva de Campos Gaussianos Independentes (SSCGI). O objetivo principal deste trabalho é o estudo da quantificação de incertezas para o problema inverso do transporte de um traçador em um meio poroso heterogêneo empregando uma abordagem Bayesiana para a atualização dos campos de permeabilidades, baseada na medição dos valores da concentração espacial do traçador em tempos específicos. Um método do tipo Markov Chain Monte Carlo a dois estágios é utilizado na amostragem da distribuição de probabilidade a posteriori e a cadeia de Markov é construída a partir da reconstrução aleatória dos campos de permeabilidades. Na resolução do problema de pressão-velocidade que governa o escoamento empregase um método do tipo Elementos Finitos Mistos adequado para o cálculo acurado dos fluxos em campos de permeabilidades heterogêneos e uma abordagem Lagrangiana, o método Forward Integral Tracking (FIT), é utilizada na simulação numérica do problema do transporte do traçador. Resultados numéricos são obtidos e apresentados para um conjunto de realizações amostrais dos campos de permeabilidades.

Uso de detectores de dimensões variáveis aplicados na detecção de anomalias através de sistemas imunológicos artificiais.

O presente trabalho investiga um método de detecção de anomalias baseado em sistemas imunológicos artificiais, especificamente em uma técnica de reconhecimento próprio/não-próprio chamada algoritmo de seleção negativa (NSA). Foi utilizado um esquema de representação baseado em hiperesferas com centros e raios variáveis e um modelo capaz de gerar detectores, com esta representação, de forma eficiente. Tal modelo utiliza algoritmos genéticos onde cada gene do cromossomo contém um índice para um ponto de uma distribuição quasi-aleatória que servirá como centro do detector e uma função decodificadora responsável por determinar os raios apropriados. A aptidão do cromossomo é dada por uma estimativa do volume coberto através uma integral de Monte Carlo. Este algoritmo teve seu desempenho verificado em diferentes dimensões e suas limitações levantadas. Com isso, pode-se focar as melhorias no algoritmo, feitas através da implementação de operadores genéticos mais adequados para a representação utilizada, de técnicas de redução do número de pontos do conjunto próprio e de um método de pré-processamento baseado em bitmaps de séries temporais. Avaliações com dados sintéticos e experimentos com dados reais demonstram o bom desempenho do algoritmo proposto e a diminuição do tempo de execução.