Economic analysis in health care regulation : three essays

ABSTRACT - It is the purpose of the present thesis to emphasize, through a series of examples, the need and value of appropriate pre-analysis of the impact of health care regulation. Specifically, the thesis presents three papers on the theme of regulation in different aspects of health care provision and financing. The first two consist of economic analyses of the impact of health care regulation and the third comprises the creation of an instrument for supporting economic analysis of health care regulation, namely in the field of evaluation of health care programs. The first paper develops a model of health plan competition and pricing in order to understand the dynamics of health plan entry and exit in the presence of switching costs and alternative health premium payment systems. We build an explicit model of death spirals, in which profitmaximizing competing health plans find it optimal to adopt a pattern of increasing relative prices culminating in health plan exit. We find the steady-state numerical solution for the price sequence and the plan’s optimal length of life through simulation and do some comparative statics. This allows us to show that using risk adjusted premiums and imposing price floors are effective at reducing death spirals and switching costs, while having employees pay a fixed share of the premium enhances death spirals and increases switching costs. Price regulation of pharmaceuticals is one of the cost control measures adopted by the Portuguese government, as in many European countries. When such regulation decreases the products’ real price over time, it may create an incentive for product turnover. Using panel data for the period of 1997 through 2003 on drug packages sold in Portuguese pharmacies, the second paper addresses the question of whether price control policies create an incentive for product withdrawal. Our work builds the product survival literature by accounting for unobservable product characteristics and heterogeneity among consumers when constructing quality, price control and competition indexes. These indexes are then used as covariates in a Cox proportional hazard model. We find that, indeed, price control measures increase the probability of exit, and that such effect is not verified in OTC market where no such price regulation measures exist. We also find quality to have a significant positive impact on product survival. In the third paper, we develop a microsimulation discrete events model (MSDEM) for costeffectiveness analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus treatment, simulating individual paths from antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation to death. Four driving forces determine the course of events: CD4+ cell count, viral load resistance and adherence. A novel feature of the model with respect to the previous MSDEMs is that distributions of time to event depend on individuals’ characteristics and past history. Time to event was modeled using parametric survival analysis. Events modeled include: viral suppression, regimen switch due virological failure, regimen switch due to other reasons, resistance development, hospitalization, AIDS events, and death. Disease progression is structured according to therapy lines and the model is parameterized with cohort Portuguese observational data. An application of the model is presented comparing the cost-effectiveness ART initiation with two nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) plus one non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor(NNRTI) to two NRTI plus boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r) in HIV- 1 infected individuals. We find 2NRTI+NNRTI to be a dominant strategy. Results predicted by the model reproduce those of the data used for parameterization and are in line with those published in the literature.

Portugal Telecom’s strategic partnership with Oi: The value creation potential

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The economic value of Portuguese pine and eucalyptus forests

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Determinants of venture capital and private equity investments in renewable energy: A cross-country study

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A new opportunity for human resources management to create value: Shaping a new business paradigm in the context of the Portuguese hotel industry

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The international expansion strategy of Striyah in Poland

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The new mobility paradigm: transformation of value chain and business models

We would like to thank Philipp Schwarz and Julia Gückel for their dedicated support in preparing this paper and our colleagues and students of the School of Engineering and the Business School for our fruitful discussions.

The value relevance of tangible fixed assets

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Estudo histopatológico comparativo do teste cutâneo em cães de área endêmica de leishmaniose tegumentar, utilizando dois antígenos: Leishvacin r e o P10.000g

A intradermorreação de Montenegro, um teste de hipersensibilidade tardia, é um método muito utilizado no diagnóstico auxiliar da leishmaniose tegumentar americana (LTA) humana. Entretanto, são escassos os relatos a respeito das alterações histológicas induzidas experimentalmente peto teste cutâneo, sobretudo no cão. Frente a isso, a nível de campo, foram comparados dois testes cutâneos para diagnóstico da leishmaniose tegumentar canina (LTC), utilizando-se o LeishvacinR e o P10.000G como antígenos. Nos cães que receberam o PIO.OOOG, constatou-se reação inflamatória mais evidente e difusa que nos testados com o LeishvacinR.

Customer Lifetime Value: a framework for application in the insurance industry - Building a Business Process to Generate and Maintain an Automatic Estimation Agent

Research Project submited as partial fulfilment for the Master Degree in Statistics and Information Management

A technology diffusion perspective of Enterprise Resource Planning across European Small and Medium Enterprises: from determinants to Use to Value

Tese apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Doutor em Gestão de Informação

Multirresistência a antimicrobianos mediada por plasmídios R em cepas de Shigella flexneri isoladas no nordeste do Brasil

Em amostras de S. flexneri, isoladas no período de 1989 a 1993, foi estudado o mecanismo molecular que mediava a multirresistência. Foram utilizadas no estudo 26 amostras de S. flexneri. Estas amostras foram submetidas a teste de sensibilidade a antimicrobianos, experimentos de conjugação e extração de plasmídios. Com relação ao padrão de resistência a antimicrobianos, observou-se que todas as amostras de S. flexneri eram resistentes a pelo menos três antimicrobianos. Das 26 amostras de S. flexneri doadoras submetidas ao processo de conjugação, 34,6% (9 amostras) resultaram em uma freqüência variável de transconjugantes. Das amostras que conjugaram, 100% transferiram o fator de resistência relacionado à ampicilina; sendo que em todas as transconjugantes foi evidenciado apenas um plasmídio de 23,1Kb. Este plasmídio, encontrado em todas as amostras de Shigellas, caracterizou-se como o portador de marca de resistência para ampicilina.

R&D spillovers in an endogenous growth model with physical capital, human capital and varieties

There is a family of models with Physical, Human capital and R&D for which convergence properties have been discussed (Arnold, 2000a; Gómez, 2005). However, spillovers in R&D have been ignored in this context. We introduce spillovers in this model and derive its steady-state and stability properties. This new feature implies that the model is characterized by a system of four differential equations. A unique Balanced Growth Path along with a two dimensional stable manifold are obtained under simple and reasonable conditions. Transition is oscillatory toward the steady-state for plausible values of parameters.