991 resultados para probabilistic distribution


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A Bayesian probabilistic methodology for on-line structural health monitoring which addresses the issue of parameter uncertainty inherent in problem is presented. The method uses modal parameters for a limited number of modes identified from measurements taken at a restricted number of degrees of freedom of a structure as the measured structural data. The application presented uses a linear structural model whose stiffness matrix is parameterized to develop a class of possible models. Within the Bayesian framework, a joint probability density function (PDF) for the model stiffness parameters given the measured modal data is determined. Using this PDF, the marginal PDF of the stiffness parameter for each substructure given the data can be calculated.

Monitoring the health of a structure using these marginal PDFs involves two steps. First, the marginal PDF for each model parameter given modal data from the undamaged structure is found. The structure is then periodically monitored and updated marginal PDFs are determined. A measure of the difference between the calibrated and current marginal PDFs is used as a means to characterize the health of the structure. A procedure for interpreting the measure for use by an expert system in on-line monitoring is also introduced.

The probabilistic framework is developed in order to address the model parameter uncertainty issue inherent in the health monitoring problem. To illustrate this issue, consider a very simplified deterministic structural health monitoring method. In such an approach, the model parameters which minimize an error measure between the measured and model modal values would be used as the "best" model of the structure. Changes between the model parameters identified using modal data from the undamaged structure and subsequent modal data would be used to find the existence, location and degree of damage. Due to measurement noise, limited modal information, and model error, the "best" model parameters might vary from one modal dataset to the next without any damage present in the structure. Thus, difficulties would arise in separating normal variations in the identified model parameters based on limitations of the identification method and variations due to true change in the structure. The Bayesian framework described in this work provides a means to handle this parametric uncertainty.

The probabilistic health monitoring method is applied to simulated data and laboratory data. The results of these tests are presented.

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This paper deals with the distribution of generated microcrystallites in borate glass irradiated by 120 fs laser pulses at a central wavelength of 800 nm. Raman spectroscopy is used to investigate the distribution of the high and low temperature phases of barium metaborate crystals generated in the borate glass. In combination with a microexplosion model, bond-breaking induced by laser irradiation is served as the origin of the formation of BBO crystals. Depending on the laser fluence and cooling conditions, the distribution mechanisms have been discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This article is an attempt to devise a method of using certain species of Corixidae as a basis for the assessment of general water quality in lakes. An empirical graphical representation of the distribution of populations or communities of Corixidae in relation to conductivity, based mainly on English and Welsh lakes, is used as a predictive monitoring model to establish the "expected" normal community at a given conductivity, representing the total ionic concentration of the water body. A test sample from another lake of known conductivity is then compared with "expected" community. The "goodness of fit" is examined visually or by calculation of indices of similarity based on the relative proportions of the constituent species of each community. A computer programme has been devised for this purpose.

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Data on the distribution of aquatic bugs in Scotland was compiled with a widely-used biological recording software called RECORDER supplemented by a mapping program (DMAP) and a program that linked the two. Status lists are given with a brief account of the distribution of each species. Common and widespread species are listed in group one, including Velia caprai and Gerris lacustris, with less common species in group two such as Hydrometra stagnorum and Microvelia reticulata. Rare, uncommon or under-recorded species are also listed. These include Hebrus ruficeps, Gerris najas and Cymatia coleoptrata.

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This account concentrates on the six species of crayfish found in Austria, and the current state of knowledge on their distribution and laws affecting conservation. In general the occurrence and distribution of crayfish in Austria is poorly known, although information obtained by researchers and the general public, after careful checking, is increasing. Three native crayfish species occur in Austria: Austropotamobius torrentium which is relatively widespread, A. pallipes with a restricted distribution, and Astacus astacus which is widespread. Three species of non-native (alien) crayfish have been recorded from a total of 158 localities in Austria. They are Astacus leptodactylus from eastern Europe, and two Nearctic species: Pacifastacus leniusculus and Orconectes limosus. The introduction of alien species causes considerable problems as they act as vectors of crayfish plague and are able to outcompete native species by higher reproductive capacities.

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Signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) have existed in the upper reaches of Broadmead Brook in Wiltshire since 200 individuals were introduced at West Kington in 1981. The population has expanded upstream and downstream since this introduction, however, giving rise to concerns that it may potentially threaten the native crayfish population further downstream. Signal crayfish can act as a vector of crayfish plague - a disease caused by the fungus Aphanomyces astaci Schikora which results in almost complete mortality to the native, white-clawed crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes. The native crayfish in Broadmead Brook have not yet succumbed to crayfish plague and are currently free of the disease. However, as signal crayfish appear to out-compete the native species, the native population could still be under threat. In this article, we highlight the findings of previous crayfish surveys on Broadmead Brook and describe work undertaken in summer 2001 to map the current distribution of native and signal crayfish. Finally, options for controlling the spread of signal crayfish are discussed.

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Aegagropila sauteri is a peculiar green algae, the branched thalli of which, according to the amount of growth, forms velvety spheres of a diameter of 3-4, sometimes to 5-6 cm. and bigger. Investigators attribute it to a special genus of green algae. The authors examine Aegagropila sauteri in Lake Markakol (Kazakhstan).

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Systematic investigations of the distribution of pollen in stationary water bodies until now have hardly been conducted. For clarification of the problem of how the pollen of different plants which falls into a lake is deposited in relation to its physical properties, the character of the lake, wind currents and other factors, pollen analyses were carried out of surface samples of the bottom sediments of 13 Lithuanian lakes. Lakes were selected of different sizes (areas from 2333 ha. to 8 ha.) and different depths, not uniformly overgrown, situated in different physico-geographic regions of Lithuania. As a result of the investigation, it was established that in the surface layer of the sediments of the lakes of Lithuania pollen of woody species predominates.

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Observations of individual weight, duration of development and production of different stages of Tropodiaptomus incognitus are presented. The study is based on data gathered from Lake Chad in 1968.

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The Goggausee, a small, shallow, meromictic lake(700m long, 150m wide, max. depth=12m, mean depth=6m), was the site of a week long study (19-26 May 1974) of the limnology department of the University of Vienna. The study comprised pollen analysis and palaeolimnological studies on the one hand, as well as a stock- taking of physiochemical factors, primary production, bacteria, zooplankton, zoo benthos and fish on the other. This paper studies the zooplankton of the lake. The Goggausee is a meromictic lake, with its anoxic deep water, that restricts the vertical distribution of most zooplankton. The aim of the study was to pursue the vertical distribution of the rotifers and Crustacea. Density of individuals, biomass, percentages of zooplankton together and crustaceans and rotifers as groups. Special consideration is given to the the Dipteran Chaoborus flavicans.

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The Goggausee, in spite of its modest depth (Zmax = 12 metres), shows meromictic properties: autumn and spring circulation extend only to a depth of 8 metres. The water layers below about 10 metres are constantly oxygen-free, the critical zone with at least intermittent oxygen loss lies at a depth of between 6 and 10 metres. A limnological excursion in May 1974 offered an opportunity to investigate the daily vertical migration of the species Chaoborus flavicans with reference to its food supply of zooplankton as well as the chance to carry out some preliminary experiments on its rate of food intake. Among the studied features were the planktonic depth distribution of Chaoborus flavicans and the food intake of Chaoborus larvae under experimental conditions.