Terraforming: Ecopolitical Transformations and Environmentalism in Science Fiction /

Terraforming is the process of making other worlds habitable for human life. This book asks how science fiction has imagined how we shape both our world and other planets and how stories of terraforming reflect on science, society and environmentalism.

Nonparametric Identication and Structural Estimation of Auction Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Cost-effectiveness of combination peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin compared with interferon alpha-2b and ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND: Sustained virological response (SVR) is the primary objective in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Results from a recent clinical trial of patients with previously untreated CHC demonstrate that the combination of peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin produces a greater SVR than interferon alpha-2b and ribavirin combination therapy. However, the cost-effectiveness of peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin in the U.S. setting has not been investigated. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to investigate cost-effectiveness in patients with CHC using genotype to guide treatment duration. SVR and disease progression parameters were derived from the clinical trials and epidemiologic studies. The impact of treatment on life expectancy and costs were projected for a lifetime. Patients who had an SVR were assumed to remain virus-free for the rest of their lives. In genotype 1 patients, the SVRs were 46% for peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin and 36% for interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. In genotype 2/3 patients, the SVRs were 76% for peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin and 61% for interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Quality of life and costs were based on estimates from the literature. All costs were based on published U.S. medical care costs and were adjusted to 2003 U.S. dollars. Costs and benefits beyond the first year were discounted at 3%. RESULTS: In genotype 1, peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin increases quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALY) by 0.70 yr compared to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin, producing a cost-effectiveness ratio of $2,600 per QALY gained. In genotype 2/3 patients, peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin increases QALY by 1.05 yr in comparison to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Peginterferon alpha-2a combination therapy in patients with HCV genotype 2 or 3 is dominant (more effective and cost saving) compared to interferon alpha-2b plus ribavirin. Results weighted by genotype prevalence (75% genotype 1; 25% genotype 2 or 3) also show that peginterferon alpha-2a plus ribavirin is dominant. Peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin remained cost-effective (below $16,500 per QALY gained) under sensitivity analyses on key clinical and cost parameters. CONCLUSION: Peginterferon alpha-2a in combination with ribavirin with duration of therapy based on genotype, is cost-effective compared with conventional interferon alpha-2b in combination with ribavirin when given to treatment-naive adults with CHC.

Hepatic pharmacokinetics of taurocholate in the normal and cholestatic rat liver

1 The disposition kinetics of [H-3] taurocholate ([H-3]TC) in perfused normal and cholestatic rat livers were studied using the multiple indicator dilution technique and several physiologically based pharmacokinetic models. 2 The serum biochemistry levels, the outflow profiles and biliary recovery of [H-3] TC were measured in three experimental groups: (i) control; (ii) 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE)-treated (low dose); and (iii) EE-treated (high dose) rats. EE treatment caused cholestasis in a dose-dependent manner. 3 A hepatobiliary TC transport model, which recognizes capillary mixing, active cellular uptake, and active efflux into bile and plasma described the disposition of [H-3]TC in the normal and cholestatic livers better than the other pharmacokinetic models. 4 An estimated five- and 18-fold decrease in biliary elimination rate constant, 1.7- and 2.7-fold increase in hepatocyte to plasma efflux rate constant, and 1.8- and 2.8-fold decrease in [H-3]TC biliary recovery ratio was found in moderate and severe cholestasis, respectively, relative to normal. 5 There were good correlations between the predicted and observed pharmacokinetic parameters of [H-3]TC based on liver pathophysiology (e.g. serum bilirubin level and biliary excretion of [H-3]TC). In conclusion, these results show that altered hepatic TC pharmacokinetics in cholestatic rat livers can be correlated with the relevant changes in liver pathophysiology in cholestasis.

Therapeutic effects and possible mechanisms of a snake venom preparation in the fibrotic rat liver

The effects of a Chinese snake venom preparation from Agkistrodon halys pallas, used for treatment of hepatic fibrosis/cirrhosis in China, was investigated in an {in vivo} rat model and using in situ hepatic perfusion. Four groups were used in the experiments: (i) healthy, (ii) healthy/venom-treated, (iii) carbon tetrachloride (CCl4)-treated, and (iv) CCl4/venom-treated. Treatment effects were assessed by determining hepatic histopathology, biochemistry and fibrosis index parameters, bile production, biliary taurocholate recovery, hepatic mRNA expression of four bile salt transporters (Ntcp, Bsep, Oatp-1, and Oatp-3), comparison of hepatic microcirculation, fibrinolytic activity, and antithrombotic effects. Liver histopathology, biochemistry, and fibrosis index showed a dramatic improvement in venom-treated animals. There were significant differences in bile production between healthy/venom-treated and all other experimental groups and between CCl4/venom-treated and CCl4-treated animals, but no significant differences were found between CCl4/venom-treated and healthy animals. Biliary taurocholate recovery was significantly increased in healthy/venom-treated and CCl4/venom-treated animals. The expression of mRNA levels of the four bile salt transporters showed an increase after venom treatment. The hepatic microcirculation studies showed normalized sinusoidal beds in CCl4/venom-treated animals compared to healthy animals, whereas CCl4-treated animals showed abnormal profiles to the healthy and the CCl4/AHPV-treated animals. The fibrinogen and plasma thromboxane B-2 levels of healthy rats decreased with increasing dose after venom treatment. It was concluded that snake venom treatment may be therapeutic in treatment of hepatic fibrosis/cirrhosis by possibly a combination of increased bile flow and improved hepatic microcirculation, changes in bile salt transporter expression, and fibrinolytic and antithrombotic effects of the snake venom preparation.

Establishment of metanephros transplantation in mice highlights contributions by both nephrectomy and pregnancy to developmental progression

Background: It has been demonstrated that embryonic kidneys (metanephroi) xenotransplanted into the omentum of adult recipients continue to develop and display immune protection due to their more nave immune presentation. To date, this has been achieved using rat, pig and human metanephroi, with unilateral nephrectomy (UNX) of recipient rats a requisite of renal development. The aim of this study was to adapt this approach for use in mice and examine the parameters affecting successful onward development in this species. Methods: Metanephroi at embryonic age (E) 13.5 were transplanted either onto the body wall, abdominal fat pads or omentum of recipient isogenic C57/Bl6 mice using either sutures or polyglycolic acid mesh. Having established greatest success with polyglycolic acid mesh on the body wall, E12.5 and 15.5 days metanephroi from C57/Bl6 mice were then transplanted onto the body wall of control (non-pregnant non-UNX), UNX or 12.5 days post-coitum pregnant isogenic recipients. After 7 days, implanted tissue was harvested and examined using histology and immunohistochemistry for markers of renal maturation. The mean number of S-shaped bodies and glomeruli per section were recorded and statistically analysed for significant differences between all recipient groups and untransplanted metanephroi. The degree of development was scored qualitatively. Results: Transplanted E12.5 metanephroi developed S-shaped bodies and glomeruli in all recipient groups, although there were statistically higher numbers of S-shaped bodies in UNX (n = 2) and pregnant recipients (n = 9) than in control recipients (n = 4). Continued development, as indicated by mature vascularized glomeruli, was only observed in those E15.5 metanephroi transplanted into pregnant recipients (n = 11) with a 15.5-fold increase in S-shaped bodies and 4-fold increase in glomeruli compared with control transplants (n = 12). Conclusions: We have successfully established metanephros transplantation in mice and demonstrated enhancement of onward development of E12.5 metanephroi in response to both pregnancy and UNX. Using E15.5 metanephroi, continued development only occurred in pregnant recipients, implying pregnancy provides an environment conducive to continued organogenesis. This murine assay, when coupled with transgenically-tagged strains of mice, will allow the investigation of the relative contribution of donor and recipient cells to this process. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Fundamental considerations of beta-adrenoceptor subtypes in human heart failure

beta-Adrenoceptor antagonists have revolutionized the management of heart failure in humans. However, fundamental questions remain concerning their use. Currently, there is considerable debate about the role of beta(2)-adrenoceptors in heart failure and whether incremental clinical benefit can be obtained by blockade of beta(2)-adrenoceptors in addition to beta(1)-adrenoceptors. Polymorphic forms of beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenoceptors exist, which might contribute to the variable clinical outcomes that are observed with P-adrenoceptor antagonists. There is evidence for a low-affinity state of beta(1)-adrenoceptors and ventricular beta(3)-adrenoceptors, and these are discussed in the context of heart failure. Finally, there is seemingly paradoxical evidence that restoration and normalization of the beta-adrenoceptor system is beneficial in animal models of heart failure. We reconcile this view with the current clinical use and proven benefit of beta-adrenoceptor antagonists.

Calibrating photometric redshifts of luminous red galaxies

We discuss the construction of a photometric redshift catalogue of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), emphasizing the principal steps necessary for constructing such a catalogue: (i) photometrically selecting the sample, (ii) measuring photometric redshifts and their error distributions, and (iii) estimating the true redshift distribution. We compare two photometric redshift algorithms for these data and find that they give comparable results. Calibrating against the SDSS and SDSS-2dF (Two Degree Field) spectroscopic surveys, we find that the photometric redshift accuracy is sigma similar to 0.03 for redshifts less than 0.55 and worsens at higher redshift (similar to 0.06 for z < 0.7). These errors are caused by photometric scatter, as well as systematic errors in the templates, filter curves and photometric zero-points. We also parametrize the photometric redshift error distribution with a sum of Gaussians and use this model to deconvolve the errors from the measured photometric redshift distribution to estimate the true redshift distribution. We pay special attention to the stability of this deconvolution, regularizing the method with a prior on the smoothness of the true redshift distribution. The methods that we develop are applicable to general photometric redshift surveys.

Estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters from non-compartmental variables using Microsoft Excel((R))

This study was conducted to develop a method, termed 'back analysis (BA)', for converting non-compartmental variables to compartment model dependent pharmacokinetic parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. A Microsoft Excel((R)) spreadsheet was implemented with the use of Solver((R)) and visual basic functions. The performance of the BA method in estimating pharmacokinetic parameter values was evaluated by comparing the parameter values obtained to a standard modelling software program, NONMEM, using simulated data. The results show that the BA method was reasonably precise and provided low bias in estimating fixed and random effect parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. The pharmacokinetic parameters estimated from the BA method were similar to those of NONMEM estimation.

Analysis of population pharmacokinetic data using NONMEM and WinBUGS

The aim of this report is to describe the use of WinBUGS for two datasets that arise from typical population pharmacokinetic studies. The first dataset relates to gentamicin concentration-time data that arose as part of routine clinical care of 55 neonates. The second dataset incorporated data from 96 patients receiving enoxaparin. Both datasets were originally analyzed by using NONMEM. In the first instance, although NONMEM provided reasonable estimates of the fixed effects parameters it was unable to provide satisfactory estimates of the between-subject variance. In the second instance, the use of NONMEM resulted in the development of a successful model, albeit with limited available information on the between-subject variability of the pharmacokinetic parameters. WinBUGS was used to develop a model for both of these datasets. Model comparison for the enoxaparin dataset was performed by using the posterior distribution of the log-likelihood and a posterior predictive check. The use of WinBUGS supported the same structural models tried in NONMEM. For the gentamicin dataset a one-compartment model with intravenous infusion was developed, and the population parameters including the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix were available. Analysis of the enoxaparin dataset supported a two compartment model as superior to the one-compartment model, based on the posterior predictive check. Again, the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix parameters were available. Fully Bayesian approaches using MCMC methods, via WinBUGS, can offer added value for analysis of population pharmacokinetic data.

Hearing sensitivity and bone mineral density in older adults: the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study

Bone mineral density (BMD) may be associated with hearing loss in older adults. Demineralization of the cochlear capsule has been associated with hearing loss in those with Paget's disease of the bone and otosclerosis. Osteoporosis may also result in cochlear capsule demineralization. We hypothesized that lower hip BMD and lower heel ultrasound measurements would be associated with hearing loss in a population-based sample of 2,089 older black and white men and women. Bone parameters and hearing function were measured at the fourth clinical follow-up visit. Audiometric threshold testing was used to measure air- and bone-conduction hearing sensitivity. BMD of the hip and its subregions was measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Calcaneal bone measurements [broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), speed of sound (SOS) and the quantitative ultrasound index (QUI)] were obtained using heel ultrasound. After adjusting for known hearing loss risk factors, no association was found between hearing and any of the bone measurements in whites and black women. In black men, however, lower hip BMD was associated with higher odds of hearing loss; for each standard deviation decrease in total hip BMD, the odds of hearing loss were 1.41 (95% confidence interval 1.08, 1.83), 1.39 (95% CI 1.07, 1.82) for femoral neck BMD and 1.65 (95% CI 1.26, 2.16) for trochanter BMD. Conductive hearing loss was associated with lower heel ultrasound measurements, though only among white men. The results of this study are mixed and inconclusive. Lower BMD of the hip and its subregions was associated with hearing loss among black men, but not among whites or black women. Lower measurements on heel ultrasound were associated with conductive hearing loss, though only among white men. These results suggest that axial and appendicular bone parameters may be modestly associated with hearing loss in older men, but not in women.

Slowing down a pine invasion despite uncertainty in demography and dispersal

1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

Mapping water quality and substrate cover in optically complex coastal and reef waters: an integrated approach

Sustainable management of coastal and coral reef environments requires regular collection of accurate information on recognized ecosystem health indicators. Satellite image data and derived maps of water column and substrate biophysical properties provide an opportunity to develop baseline mapping and monitoring programs for coastal and coral reef ecosystem health indicators. A significant challenge for satellite image data in coastal and coral reef water bodies is the mixture of both clear and turbid waters. A new approach is presented in this paper to enable production of water quality and substrate cover type maps, linked to a field based coastal ecosystem health indicator monitoring program, for use in turbid to clear coastal and coral reef waters. An optimized optical domain method was applied to map selected water quality (Secchi depth, Kd PAR, tripton, CDOM) and substrate cover type (seagrass, algae, sand) parameters. The approach is demonstrated using commercially available Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper image data over a coastal embayment exhibiting the range of substrate cover types and water quality conditions commonly found in sub-tropical and tropical coastal environments. Spatially extensive and quantitative maps of selected water quality and substrate cover parameters were produced for the study site. These map products were refined by interactions with management agencies to suit the information requirements of their monitoring and management programs. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Equivalence of the Peleg, Pilosof and Singh-Kulshrestha models for water absorption in food

The similarity between the Peleg, Pilosof –Boquet–Batholomai and Singh–Kulshrestha models was investigated using the hydration behaviours of whey protein concentrate, wheat starch and whey protein isolate at 30 °C in 100% relative humidity. The three models were shown to be mathematically the same within experimental variations, and they yielded parameters that are related. The models, in their linear and original forms, were suitable (r2 > 0.98) in describing the sorption behaviours of the samples, and are sensitive to the length of the sorption segment used in the computation. The whey proteins absorbed more moisture than the wheat starch, and the isolate exhibited a higher sorptive ability than the concentrate.

Over-expression of Eph and ephrin genes in advanced ovarian cancer: ephrin gene expression correlates with shortened survival

Background: Increased expression of Eph receptor tyrosine kinases and their ephrin ligands has been implicated in tumor progression in a number of malignancies. This report describes aberrant expression of these genes in ovarian cancer, the commonest cause of death amongst gynaecological malignancies. Methods: Eph and ephrin expression was determined using quantitative real time RT-PCR. Correlation of gene expression was measured using Spearman's rho statistic. Survival was analysed using log-rank analysis and ( was visualised by) Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Results: Greater than 10 fold over-expression of EphA1 and a more modest over-expression of EphA2 were observed in partially overlapping subsets of tumors. Over-expression of EphA1 strongly correlated ( r = 0.801; p < 0.01) with the high affinity ligand ephrin A1. A similar trend was observed between EphA2 and ephrin A1 ( r = 0.387; p = 0.06). A striking correlation of both ephrin A1 and ephrin A5 expression with poor survival ( r = - 0.470; p = 0.02 and r = - 0.562; p < 0.01) was observed. Intriguingly, there was no correlation between survival and other clinical parameters or Eph expression. Conclusion: These data imply that increased levels of ephrins A1 and A5 in the presence of high expression of Ephs A1 and A2 lead to a more aggressive tumor phenotype. The known functions of Eph/ephrin signalling in cell de-adhesion and movement may explain the observed correlation of ephrin expression with poor prognosis.