Pattern recognition ecological niche models fit to presence-only and presence-absence data

1. Identifying the boundary of a species' niche from observational and environmental data is a common problem in ecology and conservation biology and a variety of techniques have been developed or applied to model niches and predict distributions. Here, we examine the performance of some pattern-recognition methods as ecological niche models (ENMs). Particularly, one-class pattern recognition is a flexible and seldom used methodology for modelling ecological niches and distributions from presence-only data. The development of one-class methods that perform comparably to two-class methods (for presence/absence data) would remove modelling decisions about sampling pseudo-absences or background data points when absence points are unavailable. 2. We studied nine methods for one-class classification and seven methods for two-class classification (five common to both), all primarily used in pattern recognition and therefore not common in species distribution and ecological niche modelling, across a set of 106 mountain plant species for which presence-absence data was available. We assessed accuracy using standard metrics and compared trade-offs in omission and commission errors between classification groups as well as effects of prevalence and spatial autocorrelation on accuracy. 3. One-class models fit to presence-only data were comparable to two-class models fit to presence-absence data when performance was evaluated with a measure weighting omission and commission errors equally. One-class models were superior for reducing omission errors (i.e. yielding higher sensitivity), and two-classes models were superior for reducing commission errors (i.e. yielding higher specificity). For these methods, spatial autocorrelation was only influential when prevalence was low. 4. These results differ from previous efforts to evaluate alternative modelling approaches to build ENM and are particularly noteworthy because data are from exhaustively sampled populations minimizing false absence records. Accurate, transferable models of species' ecological niches and distributions are needed to advance ecological research and are crucial for effective environmental planning and conservation; the pattern-recognition approaches studied here show good potential for future modelling studies. This study also provides an introduction to promising methods for ecological modelling inherited from the pattern-recognition discipline.

Variation in soil organic carbon and thickness of soil horizons within a boreal forest stand - effect of trees and implications for sampling

Summary

Selecting statistical models to study the relationship between soybean yield and soil physical properties

Statistical models allow the representation of data sets and the estimation and/or prediction of the behavior of a given variable through its interaction with the other variables involved in a phenomenon. Among other different statistical models, are the autoregressive state-space models (ARSS) and the linear regression models (LR), which allow the quantification of the relationships among soil-plant-atmosphere system variables. To compare the quality of the ARSS and LR models for the modeling of the relationships between soybean yield and soil physical properties, Akaike's Information Criterion, which provides a coefficient for the selection of the best model, was used in this study. The data sets were sampled in a Rhodic Acrudox soil, along a spatial transect with 84 points spaced 3 m apart. At each sampling point, soybean samples were collected for yield quantification. At the same site, soil penetration resistance was also measured and soil samples were collected to measure soil bulk density in the 0-0.10 m and 0.10-0.20 m layers. Results showed autocorrelation and a cross correlation structure of soybean yield and soil penetration resistance data. Soil bulk density data, however, were only autocorrelated in the 0-0.10 m layer and not cross correlated with soybean yield. The results showed the higher efficiency of the autoregressive space-state models in relation to the equivalent simple and multiple linear regression models using Akaike's Information Criterion. The resulting values were comparatively lower than the values obtained by the regression models, for all combinations of explanatory variables.

Calculation and comparison of different permanent sample plot types

Summary

Spatial patterns of preconsolidation pressure and soil moisture along transects in two directions under coffee

Information on the spatial structure of soil physical and structural properties is needed to evaluate the soil quality. The purpose of this study was to investigate the spatial behavior of preconsolidation pressure and soil moisture in six transects, three selected along and three across coffee rows, at three different sites under different tillage management systems. The study was carried out on a farm, in Patrocinio, state of Minas Gerais, in the Southeast of Brazil (18 º 59 ' 15 '' S; 46 º 56 ' 47 '' W; 934 m asl). The soil type is a typic dystrophic Red Latosol (Acrustox) and consists of 780 g kg-1 clay; 110 g kg-1 silt and 110 g kg-1 sand, with an average slope of 3 %. Undisturbed soil cores were sampled at a depth of 0.10-0.13 m, at three different points within the coffee plantation: (a) from under the wheel track, where equipment used in farm operations passes; (b) in - between tracks and (c) under the coffee canopy. Six linear transects were established in the experimental area: three transects along and three across the coffee rows. This way, 161 samples were collected in the transect across the coffee rows, from the three locations, while 117 samples were collected in the direction along the row. The shortest sampling distance in the transect across the row was 4 m, and 0.5 m for the transect along the row. No clear patterns of the preconsolidation pressure values were observed in the 200 m transect. The results of the semivariograms for both variables indicated a high nugget value and short range for the studied parameters of all transects. A cyclic pattern of the parameters was observed for the across-rows transect. An inverse relationship between preconsolidation pressure and soil moisture was clearly observed in the samples from under the track, in both directions.

Parents' willingness to pay for diminishing children's pain during blood sampling.

BACKGROUND: Blood sampling is a frequent medical procedure, very often considered as a stressful experience by children. Local anesthetics have been developed, but are expensive and not reimbursed by insurance companies in our country. We wanted to assess parents' willingness to pay (WTP) for this kind of drug. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Over 6 months, all parents of children presenting for general (GV) or specialized visit (SV) with blood sampling. WTP was assessed through three scenarios [avoiding blood sampling (ABS), using the drug on prescription (PD), or over the counter (OTC)], with a payment card system randomized to ascending or descending order of prices (AO or DO). RESULTS: Fifty-six responses were collected (34 GV, 22 SV, 27 AO and 29 DO), response rate 40%. Response distribution was wide, with median WTP of 40 for ABS, 25 for PD, 10 for OTC, which is close to the drug's real price. Responses were similar for GV and SV. Median WTP amounted to 0.71, 0.67, 0.20% of respondents' monthly income for the three scenarios, respectively, with a maximum at 10%. CONCLUSIONS: Assessing parents' WTP in an outpatient setting is difficult, with wide result distribution, but median WTP is close to the real drug price. This finding could be used to promote insurance coverage for this drug.

Soil microbial biomass under different management and tillage systems of permanent intercropped cover species in an orange orchard

To mitigate soil erosion and enhance soil fertility in orange plantations, the permanent protection of the inter-rows by cover species has been suggested. The objective of this study was to evaluate alterations in the microbial biomass, due to different soil tillage systems and intercropped cover species between rows of orange trees. The soil of the experimental area previously used as pasture (Brachiaria humidicola) was an Ultisol (Typic Paleudult) originating from Caiuá sandstone in the northwestern part of the State of Paraná, Brazil. Two soil tillage systems were evaluated: conventional tillage (CT) in the entire area and strip tillage (ST) (strip width 2 m), in combination with different ground cover management systems. The citrus cultivar 'Pera' orange (Citrus sinensis) grafted onto 'Rangpur' lime rootstock was used. Soil samples were collected after five years of treatment from a depth of 0-15 cm, under the tree canopy and in the inter-row, in the following treatments: (1) CT and an annual cover crop with the leguminous species Calopogonium mucunoides; (2) CT and a perennial cover crop with the leguminous peanut Arachis pintoi; (3) CT and an evergreen cover crop with Bahiagrass Paspalum notatum; (4) CT and a cover crop with spontaneous Brachiaria humidicola grass vegetation; and (5) ST and maintenance of the remaining grass (pasture) of Brachiaria humidicola. Soil tillage and the different cover species influenced the microbial biomass, both under the tree canopy and in the inter-row. The cultivation of brachiaria increased C and N in the microbial biomass, while bahiagrass increased P in the microbial biomass. The soil microbial biomass was enriched in N and P by the presence of ground cover species and according to the soil P content. The grass species increased C, N and P in the soil microbial biomass from the inter-row more than leguminous species.

A method for using random parameters in analyzing permanent sample plots

Summary

Multivariate analysis and geostatistics of the fertility of a humic rhodic hapludox under coffee cultivation

The spatial variability of soil and plant properties exerts great influence on the yeld of agricultural crops. This study analyzed the spatial variability of the fertility of a Humic Rhodic Hapludox with Arabic coffee, using principal component analysis, cluster analysis and geostatistics in combination. The experiment was carried out in an area under Coffea arabica L., variety Catucai 20/15 - 479. The soil was sampled at a depth 0.20 m, at 50 points of a sampling grid. The following chemical properties were determined: P, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, S, Al3+, pH, H + Al, SB, t, T, V, m, OM, Na saturation index (SSI), remaining phosphorus (P-rem), and micronutrients (Zn, Fe, Mn, Cu and B). The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics, followed by principal component and cluster analyses. Geostatistics were used to check and quantify the degree of spatial dependence of properties, represented by principal components. The principal component analysis allowed a dimensional reduction of the problem, providing interpretable components, with little information loss. Despite the characteristic information loss of principal component analysis, the combination of this technique with geostatistical analysis was efficient for the quantification and determination of the structure of spatial dependence of soil fertility. In general, the availability of soil mineral nutrients was low and the levels of acidity and exchangeable Al were high.

Spatial relationships between soil attributes and corn yield in no-tillage system

Soil properties play an important role in spatial variability of crop yield. However, a low spatial correlation has generally been observed between maps of crop yield and of soil properties. The objectives of the present investigation were to assess the spatial pattern variability of soil properties and of corn yield at the same sampling intensity, and evaluate its cause-and-effect relationships. The experimental site was structured in a grid of 100 referenced points, spaced at 10 m intervals along four parallel 250 m long rows spaced 4.5 m apart. Thus, points formed a rectangle containing four columns and 25 rows. Therefore, each sampling cell encompassed an area of 45 m² and consisted of five 10 m long crop rows, in which the referenced points represented the center. Samples were taken from the layers 0-0.1 m and 0.1-0.2 m. Soil physical and chemical properties were evaluated. Statistical analyses consisted of data description and geostatistics. The spatial dependence of corn yield and soil properties was confirmed. The hypothesis of this study was confirmed, i.e., when sampling the soil to determine the values of soil characteristics at similar to sampling intensity as for crop yield assessments, correlations between the spatial distribution of soil characteristics and crop yield were observed. The spatial distribution pattern of soil properties explained 65 % of the spatial distribution pattern of corn yield. The spatial distribution pattern of clay content and percentage of soil base saturation explained most of the spatial distribution pattern of corn yield.

Uncertainties in the prediction of spatial variability of soil CO2 emissions and related properties

The soil CO2 emission has high spatial variability because it depends strongly on soil properties. The purpose of this study was to (i) characterize the spatial variability of soil respiration and related properties, (ii) evaluate the accuracy of results of the ordinary kriging method and sequential Gaussian simulation, and (iii) evaluate the uncertainty in predicting the spatial variability of soil CO2 emission and other properties using sequential Gaussian simulations. The study was conducted in a sugarcane area, using a regular sampling grid with 141 points, where soil CO2 emission, soil temperature, air-filled pore space, soil organic matter and soil bulk density were evaluated. All variables showed spatial dependence structure. The soil CO2 emission was positively correlated with organic matter (r = 0.25, p < 0.05) and air-filled pore space (r = 0.27, p < 0.01) and negatively with soil bulk density (r = -0.41, p < 0.01). However, when the estimated spatial values were considered, the air-filled pore space was the variable mainly responsible for the spatial characteristics of soil respiration, with a correlation of 0.26 (p < 0.01). For all variables, individual simulations represented the cumulative distribution functions and variograms better than ordinary kriging and E-type estimates. The greatest uncertainties in predicting soil CO2 emission were associated with areas with the highest estimated values, which produced estimates from 0.18 to 1.85 t CO2 ha-1, according to the different scenarios considered. The knowledge of the uncertainties generated by the different scenarios can be used in inventories of greenhouse gases, to provide conservative estimates of the potential emission of these gases.

N2O emissions from a cultivated mollisol: optimal time of day for sampling and the role of soil temperature

The correct use of closed field chambers to determine N2O emissions requires defining the time of day that best represents the daily mean N2O flux. A short-term field experiment was carried out on a Mollisol soil, on which annual crops were grown under no-till management in the Pampa Ondulada of Argentina. The N2O emission rates were measured every 3 h for three consecutive days. Fluxes ranged from 62.58 to 145.99 ∝g N-N2O m-2 h-1 (average of five field chambers) and were negatively related (R² = 0.34, p < 0.01) to topsoil temperature (14 - 20 ºC). N2O emission rates measured between 9:00 and 12:00 am presented a high relationship to daily mean N2O flux (R² = 0.87, p < 0.01), showing that, in the study region, sampling in the mornings is preferable for GHG.

Prognostic in Vivo Biomarkers for Lesion Development after Cerebral Ischemia

A better prediction of the outcome after ischemia and estimation of onset time at early time points would greatly facilitate clinical decisions. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to use magnetic resonance spectroscopy to identify neurochemical markers for outcome prediction at early time points after ischemia.ICR-CD1 mice were subjected to 10-minute, 30-minute or permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO). The regional cerebral blood flow (CBF) was monitored in all animals by laser-Doppler flowmetry. All MR studies were carried out in a horizontal 14.1T magnet. Fast spin echo images with T2-weighted parameters were Bacquired to localize the volume of interest and evaluate the lesion size. Immediately after adjustment of field inhomogeneities, localized 1H MRS was applied to obtain the neurochemical profile from the striatum (6-8 μl) or the cortex (2.2-2.5 μl). Six animals (sham group) underwent nearly identical procedures without MCAO.By comparing the evolution of several metabolites in ischemia of varying severity, we observed that glutamine increases early after transient ischemia independently of severity, but decreases in permanent ischemia. On the opposite, GABA increased in permanent ischemia and decreased in transient. We also observed a decrease in the sum of N-acetyl aspartate + glutamate + taurine in all irreversibly damaged tissues, independently of reperfusion and severity. Finally, we have observed that some metabolites decrease exponentially after ischemia. This exponential decrease could be used to determine the time of ischemia onset in permanent ischemia.In Conclusion, magnetic resonance spectroscopy can be used as a prognostic and diagnostic tool to monitor reperfusion, identify reversibly and irreversibly damaged tissue and evaluate the time of ischemia onset. If these Results can be translated to stroke patients, this technique would greatly improve the diagnosis and help with clinical decisions.

Relationships between microbial activity and soil physical and chemical properties in native and reforested Araucaria angustifolia forests in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Araucaria angustifolia (Bert.) O. Kuntze is the main component of the Mixed Ombrophilous forest and, in the State of São Paulo, it is associated with a high diversity of soil organisms, essential for the maintenance of soil quality, making the conservation of this ecosystem a major and pressing challenge. The objective of this study was to identify the physical and chemical properties that are most closely correlated with dehydrogenase enzyme activity, basal respiration and microbial biomass under native (NF) and replanted (RF) Araucaria angustifolia forests in three regions of the state of São Paulo, in winter and summer. The main differentiating factors between the areas were also determined. Each forest was represented by three true replications; at each site, from around the araucaria trees, 15 soil samples (0-20 cm) were collected to evaluate the soil physical, chemical and microbiological properties. At the same points, forest litter was sampled to assess mass and chemical properties. The following microbiological properties were evaluated: microbial biomass carbon (MBC), basal respiration (CO2-C), metabolic quotient (Q: CO2), dehydrogenase enzyme activity (DHA) as well as the physical properties (moisture, bulk density, macroporosity and total porosity), soil chemical properties [pH, organic carbon (org-C), P, Ca, K, Mg, Al, H+Al], litter dry mass, and C, N and S contents. The data were subjected to analysis of variance (TWO-WAY: ANOVA). A Canonical Discriminant Analysis (CDA) and a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) were also performed. In the soil under NF, the values of K, P, soil macroporosity, and litter dry mass were higher and Q: CO2 and DHA lower, regardless of the sampling period, and DHA was lower in winter. In the RF areas, the levels of moisture, porosity and Q: CO2 were higher in both sampling periods, and DHA was higher in winter. The MBC was only higher under NF in the summer, while the litter contents of C, N and S were greater in winter. In winter, CCA showed a high correlation of DHA with CO2-C, pH and H+Al, while in the summer org-C, moisture, Mg, pH and litter C were more associated with DHA and CO2-C. The CDA indicated H+Al, available P, total porosity, litter S content, and soil moisture as the most discriminating variables between NF and RF, but moisture was the most relevant, in both seasons and CO2-C only in winter. The combined analysis of CCA and CDA showed that the contribution of the microbiological variables to a differentiation of the areas was small at both samplings, which may indicate that the period after reforestation was long enough to allow an almost complete recovery of the microbial activity.