Updated estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite observations and comparison against the Hadley Centre climate model

The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) includes a comparison of observation-based and modeling-based estimates of the aerosol direct radiative forcing. In this comparison, satellite-based studies suggest a more negative aerosol direct radiative forcing than modeling studies. A previous satellite-based study, part of the IPCC comparison, uses aerosol optical depths and accumulation-mode fractions retrieved by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at collection 4. The latest version of MODIS products, named collection 5, improves aerosol retrievals. Using these products, the direct forcing in the shortwave spectrum defined with respect to present-day natural aerosols is now estimated at −1.30 and −0.65 Wm−2 on a global clear-sky and all-sky average, respectively, for 2002. These values are still significantly more negative than the numbers reported by modeling studies. By accounting for differences between present-day natural and preindustrial aerosol concentrations, sampling biases, and investigating the impact of differences in the zonal distribution of anthropogenic aerosols, good agreement is reached between the direct forcing derived from MODIS and the Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM2-A over clear-sky oceans. Results also suggest that satellite estimates of anthropogenic aerosol optical depth over land should be coupled with a robust validation strategy in order to refine the observation-based estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing. In addition, the complex problem of deriving the aerosol direct radiative forcing when aerosols are located above cloud still needs to be addressed.

Metalloporphyrin anion sensors: the effect of the metal centre on the anion binding properties of amide-functionalised and tetraphenyl metalloporphyrins

This article describes the synthesis and anion binding properties of a series of ‘picket fence’ metalloporphyrin complexes, within which the metal centre is systematically varied. The porphyrin structure contains four amide bonds and is the same for each metal. The anion binding properties of these receptors are further contrasted with those of their tetraphenylporphyrin congeners to elucidate both the effect of the metal centre and the influence of the amide groups on the anion recognition process. Anion binding was demonstrated using UV/visible and 1H NMR spectroscopies, electrochemistry and luminescence. The metal centre was found to be highly influential in the strength and selectivity of binding; for example, the cadmium and mercury complexes exhibited far greater affinities for anions than the zinc complexes in competitive solvents such as DMSO. The amide functionalities were found to enhance the anion binding process.

Taking the shopping centre online: new models in e-commerce

Purpose – This paper aims to provide a brief re´sume´ of previous research which has analysed the impact of e-commerce on retail real estate in the UK, and to examine the important marketing role of the internet for shopping centre managers, and retail landlords. Design/methodology/approach – Based on the results from a wider study carried out in 2003, the paper uses case studies from two different shopping centres in the UK, and documents the innovative uses of both web-based marketing and online retailing by organisations that historically have not directly been involved in the retailing process. Findings – The paper highlights the importance of considering online sales within a multi-channel approach to retailing. The two types of emerging shopping centre model which are identified are characterised by their ultimate relationship with the physical shopping centre on whose web site they reside. These can be summarised as: the “centre-led” approach, and the “brand-led” or “marketing-led” approach. Research limitations/implications – The research is based on a limited number of in-depth case studies and secondary data. Further research is needed to monitor the continuing impact of e-commerce on retail property and the marketing strategies of shopping centre managers and owners. Practical implications – Internet-based sales provide an important adjunct to conventional retail sales and an important source of potential risk for landlords and tenants in the real estate investment market. Regardless of whether retailers use the internet as a sales channel, as a product-sourcing tool, or merely to provide information to the consumer, the internet has become a keystone within the greater retail marketing mix. The findings have ramifications for understanding the way in which landlords are structuring their retail property to defray potential risks. Originality/value – The paper examines shopping centre online marketing models for the first time in detail, and will be of value to retail occupiers, owners and other stakeholders of shopping centres.

The zero, the centre and the empty utopia: from Rossellini to Walter Salles

This article examines utopian gestures and inaugural desires in two films which became symbolic of the Brazilian Film Revival in the late 1990s: Central Station (1998) and Midnight (1999). Both evolve around the idea of an overcrowded or empty centre in a country trapped between past and future, in which the motif of the zero stands for both the announcement and the negation of utopia. The analysis draws parallels between them and new wave films which also elaborate on the idea of the zero, with examples picked from Italian neo-realism, the Brazilian Cinema Novo and the New German Cinema. In Central Station, the ‘point zero’, or the core of the homeland, is retrieved in the archaic backlands, where political issues are resolved in the private sphere and the social drama turns into family melodrama. Midnight, in its turn, recycles Glauber Rocha’s utopian prophecies in the new millennium’s hour zero, when the earthly paradise represented by the sea is re-encountered by the middle-class character, but not by the poor migrant. In both cases, public injustice is compensated by the heroes’ personal achievements, but those do not refer to the real nation, its history or society. Their utopian breadth, based on nostalgia, citation and genre techniques, is of a virtual kind, attune to cinema only.

SOcK, MiSTs, MASK and STicKs: the GCKIII (germinal centre kinase III) kinases and their heterologous protein–protein interactions

The GCKIII (germinal centre kinase III) subfamily of the mammalian Ste20 (sterile 20)-like group of serine/threonine protein kinases comprises SOK1 (Ste20-like/oxidant-stressresponse kinase 1), MST3 (mammalian Ste20-like kinase 3) and MST4. Initially, GCKIIIs were considered in the contexts of the regulation of mitogen-activated protein kinase cascades and apoptosis. More recently, their participation in multiprotein heterocomplexes has become apparent. In the present review, we discuss the structure and phosphorylation of GCKIIIs and then focus on their interactions with other proteins. GCKIIIs possess a highly-conserved, structured catalytic domain at the N-terminus and a less-well conserved C-terminal regulatory domain. GCKIIIs are activated by tonic autophosphorylation of a T-loop threonine residue and their phosphorylation is regulated primarily through protein serine/threonine phosphatases [especially PP2A (protein phosphatase 2A)]. The GCKIII regulatory domains are highly disorganized, but can interact with more structured proteins, particularly the CCM3 (cerebral cavernous malformation 3)/PDCD10 (programmed cell death 10) protein. We explore the role(s) of GCKIIIs (and CCM3/PDCD10) in STRIPAK (striatin-interacting phosphatase and kinase) complexes and their association with the cis-Golgi protein GOLGA2 (golgin A2; GM130). Recently, an interaction of GCKIIIs with MO25 has been identified. This exhibits similarities to the STRADα (STE20-related kinase adaptor α)–MO25 interaction (as in the LKB1–STRADα–MO25 heterotrimer) and, at least for MST3, the interaction may be enhanced by cis-autophosphorylation of its regulatory domain. In these various heterocomplexes, GCKIIIs associate with the Golgi apparatus, the centrosome and the nucleus, as well as with focal adhesions and cell junctions, and are probably involved in cell migration, polarity and proliferation. Finally, we consider the association of GCKIIIs with a number of human diseases, particularly cerebral cavernous malformations.

Estimating the potential yield of small wind turbines in urban areas: a case study for Greater London, UK

To optimise the placement of small wind turbines in urban areas a detailed understanding of the spatial variability of the wind resource is required. At present, due to a lack of observations, the NOABL wind speed database is frequently used to estimate the wind resource at a potential site. However, recent work has shown that this tends to overestimate the wind speed in urban areas. This paper suggests a method for adjusting the predictions of the NOABL in urban areas by considering the impact of the underlying surface on a neighbourhood scale. In which, the nature of the surface is characterised on a 1 km2 resolution using an urban morphology database. The model was then used to estimate the variability of the annual mean wind speed across Greater London at a height typical of current small wind turbine installations. Initial validation of the results suggests that the predicted wind speeds are considerably more accurate than the NOABL values. The derived wind map therefore currently provides the best opportunity to identify the neighbourhoods in Greater London at which small wind turbines yield their highest energy production. The model does not consider street scale processes, however previously derived scaling factors can be applied to relate the neighbourhood wind speed to a value at a specific rooftop site. The results showed that the wind speed predicted across London is relatively low, exceeding 4 ms-1 at only 27% of the neighbourhoods in the city. Of these sites less than 10% are within 10 km of the city centre, with the majority over 20 km from the city centre. Consequently, it is predicted that small wind turbines tend to perform better towards the outskirts of the city, therefore for cities which fit the Burgess concentric ring model, such as Greater London, ‘distance from city centre’ is a useful parameter for siting small wind turbines. However, there are a number of neighbourhoods close to the city centre at which the wind speed is relatively high and these sites can only been identified with a detailed representation of the urban surface, such as that developed in this study.

Impact of the modal aerosol scheme GLOMAP-mode on aerosol forcing in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model

The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) includes two aerosol schemes: the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies in Climate (CLASSIC), and the new Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode). GLOMAP-mode is a modal aerosol microphysics scheme that simulates not only aerosol mass but also aerosol number, represents internally-mixed particles, and includes aerosol microphysical processes such as nucleation. In this study, both schemes provide hindcast simulations of natural and anthropogenic aerosol species for the period 2000–2006. HadGEM simulations of the aerosol optical depth using GLOMAP-mode compare better than CLASSIC against a data-assimilated aerosol re-analysis and aerosol ground-based observations. Because of differences in wet deposition rates, GLOMAP-mode sulphate aerosol residence time is two days longer than CLASSIC sulphate aerosols, whereas black carbon residence time is much shorter. As a result, CLASSIC underestimates aerosol optical depths in continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere and likely overestimates absorption in remote regions. Aerosol direct and first indirect radiative forcings are computed from simulations of aerosols with emissions for the year 1850 and 2000. In 1850, GLOMAP-mode predicts lower aerosol optical depths and higher cloud droplet number concentrations than CLASSIC. Consequently, simulated clouds are much less susceptible to natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes when the microphysical scheme is used. In particular, the response of cloud condensation nuclei to an increase in dimethyl sulphide emissions becomes a factor of four smaller. The combined effect of different 1850 baselines, residence times, and abilities to affect cloud droplet number, leads to substantial differences in the aerosol forcings simulated by the two schemes. GLOMAP-mode finds a presentday direct aerosol forcing of −0.49Wm−2 on a global average, 72% stronger than the corresponding forcing from CLASSIC. This difference is compensated by changes in first indirect aerosol forcing: the forcing of −1.17Wm−2 obtained with GLOMAP-mode is 20% weaker than with CLASSIC. Results suggest that mass-based schemes such as CLASSIC lack the necessary sophistication to provide realistic input to aerosol-cloud interaction schemes. Furthermore, the importance of the 1850 baseline highlights how model skill in predicting present-day aerosol does not guarantee reliable forcing estimates. Those findings suggest that the more complex representation of aerosol processes in microphysical schemes improves the fidelity of simulated aerosol forcings.

Squirmish at the Oasis: an evening of performance and rant hosted by Agency of Noise at the Kinsgate Workshsops Trust in affiliation with Camden Arts Centre

Squirmish at the Oasis takes its name from Luigi Russolo's fourth noise network 'Skirmish at the Oasis' performed in Milan in 1913. 100 years on the Agency of Noise contemplate changes in technology and the culture industry that provoke new questions around the deliberate use of noise within music and art. Through live acts of enquiry and experimentation five artists unravel paradoxes associated with the use of noise in art, music and the gallery space. The works challenge tensions, contradictions and possible oxymorons that emerge through the use and acceptance of noise within an artistic framework. Featuring: DAISY DIXON / GRAHAM DUNNING / POLLYFIBRE / DANE SUTHERLAND / MARNIE WATTS

Planning at the neighbourhood scale: localism, dialogic politics and the modulation of community action

This paper builds upon literature examining the foreclosing of community interventions to show how a resident-led anti-road-noise campaign in South-Eastern England has been framed, managed and modulated by authorities. We situate the case within wider debates considering dialogical politics. For advocates, this offers the potential for empowerment through non-traditional forums (Beck, 1994; Giddens, 1994). Others view such trends, most recently expressed as part of the localism agenda, with suspicion (Haughton et al, 2013; Mouffe, 2005). The paper brings together these literatures to analyse the points at which modulation occurs in the community planning process. We describe the types of counter-tactics residents deployed to deflect the modulation of their demands, and the events that led to the outcome. We find that community planning offers a space - albeit one that is tightly circumscribed - within which (select) groups can effect change. The paper argues that the detail of neighbourhood-scale actions warrant further attention, especially as governmental enthusiasm for dialogical modes of politics shows no sign of abating.

The role of air–sea coupling in the simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation in the Hadley Centre model

The role of air–sea coupling in the simulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is explored using two configurations of the Hadley Centre atmospheric model (AGCM), GA3.0, which differ only in F, a parameter controlling convective entrainment and detrainment. Increasing F considerably improves deficient MJO-like variability in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, but variability in and propagation through the Maritime Continent remains weak. By coupling GA3.0 in the tropical Indo-Pacific to a boundary-layer ocean model, KPP, and employing climatological temperature corrections, well resolved air–sea interactions are simulated with limited alterations to the mean state. At default F, when GA3.0 has a poor MJO, coupling produces a stronger MJO with some eastward propagation, although both aspects remain deficient. These results agree with previous sensitivity studies using AGCMs with poor variability. At higher F, coupling does not affect MJO amplitude but enhances propagation through the Maritime Continent, resulting in an MJO that resembles observations. A sensitivity experiment with coupling in only the Indian Ocean reverses these improvements, suggesting coupling in the Maritime Continent and West Pacific is critical for propagation. We hypothesise that for AGCMs with a poor MJO, coupling provides a “crutch” to artificially augment MJO-like activity through high-frequency SST anomalies. In related experiments, we employ the KPP framework to analyse the impact of air–sea interactions in the fully coupled GA3.0, which at default F shows a similar MJO to uncoupled GA3.0. This is due to compensating effects: an improvement from coupling and a degradation from mean-state errors. Future studies on the role of coupling should carefully separate these effects.

Using a case-study approach to improve the Madden-Julian oscillation in the Hadley Centre model

In its default configuration, the Hadley Centre climate model (GA2.0) simulates roughly one-half the observed level of Madden–Julian oscillation activity, with MJO events often lasting fewer than seven days. We use initialised, climate-resolution hindcasts to examine the sensitivity of the GA2.0 MJO to a range of changes in sub-grid parameterisations and model configurations. All 22 changes are tested for two cases during the Years of Tropical Convection. Improved skill comes only from (a) disabling vertical momentum transport by convection and (b) increasing mixing entrainment and detrainment for deep and mid-level convection. These changes are subsequently tested in a further 14 hindcast cases; only (b) consistently improves MJO skill, from 12 to 22 days. In a 20-year integration, (b) produces near-observed levels of MJO activity, but propagation through the Maritime Continent remains weak. With default settings, GA2.0 produces precipitation too readily, even in anomalously dry columns. Implementing (b) decreases the efficiency of convection, permitting instability to build during the suppressed MJO phase and producing a more favourable environment for the active phase. The distribution of daily rain rates is more consistent with satellite data; default entrainment produces 6–12 mm/day too frequently. These results are consistent with recent studies showing that greater sensitivity of convection to moisture improves the representation of the MJO.

En attendant Sarko? France’s mainstream Right and Centre, 2012-2014

In winning the municipal elections of March 2014, France’s mainstream opposition – the Centrists and the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP) – benefited not only from the unpopularity of the Left in power, but also from its own (partial) reconstruction. The Centrists had reorganised; the UMP had reaffirmed its right-wing programme and drawn strength from the opposition social movements launched in 2013. The European elections of 2014, however, demonstrated the limitations of this reconstruction. Their weak institutionalisation – the original sin of France’s Right and centre-Right – left internal ideological differences and (above all) personal rivalries unchecked within both forces. These tensions were compounded, in the UMP, by a series of financial scandals. At their heart was former president Nicolas Sarkozy, still the activists’ darling, ever more clearly a candidate for 2017, but also more hobbled by judicial investigations.