Some Practical Considerations In The Measurement Of Pollution Effects On Bivalve Mollusks And Some Possible Ecological Consequences

A consideration of some physiological (rates of oxygen consumption, the scope for growth) and cellular (the cytochemical latency of a lysosomal enzyme) processes in bivalve molluscs suggests that animal size and seasonal changes related to the gametogenic cycle are important sources of natural variability. Correcting for size using regression techniques, and limiting measurements to one part of the gametogenic cycle, reduces observed natural variability considerably. Differences between populations are then still apparent, but the results of laboratory experiments with hydrocarbons from crude oil suggest that it should be possible to detect sub-lethal effects due to pollution (the ‘signal’) in the presence of the remaining natural variability (the ‘noise’). Statistical considerations, taken together with results from current studies on Mytilus edulis and Scobicularia plana, indicate that sample sizes of 10–15 individuals should suffice for the detection of possible pollution effects. The physiological effects to be expected in the presence of sub-lethal levels of polluting hydrocarbons are on a scaie that can cause significant ecological damage to a population through a reduction in fecundity and the residual reproductive value of the individuals.

Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical-biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30-60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28-89%.

Consequences of a simulated rapid ocean acidification event for benthic ecosystem processes and functions

Whilst the biological consequences of long-term, gradual changes in acidity associated with the oceanic uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are increasingly studied, the potential effects of rapid acidification associated with a failure of sub-seabed carbon storage infrastructure have received less attention. This study investigates the effects of severe short-term (8 days) exposure to acidified seawater on infaunal mediation of ecosystem processes (bioirrigation and sediment particle redistribution) and functioning (nutrient concentrations). Following acidification, individuals of Amphiura filiformis exhibited emergent behaviour typical of a stress response, which resulted in altered bioturbation, but limited changes in nutrient cycling. Under acidified conditions, A. filiformis moved to shallower depths within the sediment and the variability in occupancy depth reduced considerably. This study indicated that rapid acidification events may not be lethal to benthic invertebrates, but may result in behavioural changes that could have longer-term implications for species survival, ecosystem structure and functioning.

Assessing the environmental consequences of CO2 leakage from geological CCS: Generating evidence to support environmental risk assessment

At the start of the industrial revolution (circa 1750) the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) was around 280 ppm. Since that time the burning of fossil fuel, together with other industrial processes such as cement manufacture and changing land use, has increased this value to 400 ppm, for the first time in over 3 million years. With CO2 being a potent greenhouse gas, the consequence of this rise for global temperatures has been dramatic, and not only for air temperatures. Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has warmed by 0.4–0.8 °C during the last century, although regional differences are evident (IPCC, 2007). This rise in atmospheric CO2 levels and the resulting global warming to some extent has been ameliorated by the oceanic uptake of around one quarter of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions (Sabine et al., 2004). Initially this was thought to be having little or no impact on ocean chemistry due to the capacity of the ocean’s carbonate buffering system to neutralise the acidity caused when CO2 dissolves in seawater. However, this assumption was challenged by Caldeira and Wickett (2005) who used model predictions to show that the rate at which carbonate buffering can act was far too slow to moderate significant changes to oceanic chemistry over the next few centuries. Their model predicted that since pre-industrial times, ocean surface water pH had fallen by 0.1 pH unit, indicating a 30% increase in the concentration of H+ ions. Their model also showed that the pH of surface waters could fall by up to 0.4 units before 2100, driven by continued and unabated utilisation of fossil fuels. Alongside increasing levels of dissolved CO2 and H+ (reduced pH) an increase in bicarbonate ions together with a decrease in carbonate ions occurs. These chemical changes are now collectively recognised as “ocean acidification”. Concern now stems from the knowledge that concentrations of H+, CO2, bicarbonate and carbonate ions impact upon many important physiological processes vital to maintaining health and function in marine organisms. Additionally, species have evolved under conditions where the carbonate system has remained relatively stable for millions of years, rendering them with potentially reduced capacity to adapt to this rapid change. Evidence suggests that, whilst the impact of ocean acidification is complex, when considered alongside ocean warming the net effect on the health and productivity of the oceans will be detrimental.

Marine biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and carbon cycles

Although recent studies suggest that climate change may substantially accelerate the rate of species loss in the biosphere, only a few studies have focused on the potential consequences of a spatial reorganization of biodiversity with global warming. Here, we show a pronounced latitudinal increase in phytoplanktonic and zooplanktonic biodiversity in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean in recent decades. We also show that this rise in biodiversity paralleled a decrease in the mean size of zooplanktonic copepods and that the reorganization of the planktonic ecosystem toward dominance by smaller organisms may influence the networks in which carbon flows, with negative effects on the downward biological carbon pump and demersal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Our study suggests that, contrary to the usual interpretation of increasing biodiversity being a positive emergent property promoting the stability/resilience of ecosystems, the parallel decrease in sizes of planktonic organisms could be viewed in the North Atlantic as reducing some of the services provided by marine ecosystems to humans.

Indications of a negative impact of herring on recruitment of Norway pout

The Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) stock in the North Sea has experienced poor recruitment recently. Herring (Clupea harengus) has been suggested to be a major predator on fish larvae in the North Sea. We investigated possible interactions between herring and Norway pout using a simple statistical analysis and a modified stock - recruit relationship. There was a significant negative relationship (linear regression, r = 20.44, p < 0.05) between total herring biomass and recruitment of Norway pout. The spawning stock of Norway pout is typically dominated by 2-year-olds, and there was a strong negative relationship (linear regression, r = 20.79, p < 0.01) between herring biomass and Norway pout spawning-stock biomass (SSB) 2 years later. A Beverton-Holt model fitted to stock recruit data of Norway pout produced a rather poor correlation (r(2) = 0.04). However, when only the Norway pout SSB not overlapping with herring is considered, the fit between the model and the stock - recruit data improves (r(2) = 0.31). The analyses indicate a negative impact by herring on recruitment of Norway pout, the most plausible cause for this being herring predation on Norway pout larvae, but field studies are needed to verify such predation.

Effects on zooplankton of a warmer ocean: Recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific

The consequences for pelagic communities of warming trends in mid and high latitude ocean regions could be substantial, but their magnitude and trajectory are not yet known. Environmental changes predicted by climate models (and beginning to be confirmed by observations) include warming and freshening of the upper ocean and reduction in the extent and duration of ice cover. One way to evaluate response scenarios is by comparing how "similar" zooplankton communities have differed among years and/or locations with differing temperature. The subarctic Pacific is a strong candidate for such comparisons, because the same mix of zooplankton species dominates over a wide range of temperature climatologies, and observations have spanned substantial temperature variability at interannual-to-decadal time scales. In this paper, we review and extend copepod abundance and phenology time series from net tow and Continuous Plankton Recorder surveys in the subarctic Northeast Pacific. The two strongest responses we have observed are latitudinal shifts in centers of abundance of many species (poleward under warm conditions), and changes in the life cycle timing of Neocalanus plumchrus in both oceanic and coastal regions (earlier by several weeks in warm years and at warmer locations). These zooplankton data, plus indices of higher trophic level responses such as reproduction, growth and survival of pelagic fish and seabirds, are all moderately-to-strongly intercorrelated (vertical bar r vertical bar = 0.25-0.8) with indices of local and basin-scale temperature anomalies. A principal components analysis of the normalized anomaly time series from 1979 to 2004 shows that a single "warm-and-low-productivity" vs. "cool-and-high-productivity" component axis accounts for over half of the variance/covariance. Prior to 1990, the scores for this component were negative ("cool" and "productive") or near zero except positive in the El Nino years 1983 and 1987. The scores were strongly and increasingly positive ("warm" and "low productivity") from 1992 to 1998; negative from 1999 to 2002; and again increasingly positive from 2003-present. We suggest that, in strongly seasonal environments, anomalously high temperature may provide misleading environmental cues that contribute to timing mismatch between life history events and the more-nearly-fixed seasonality of insolation, stratification, and food supply. Crown Copyright (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.