947 resultados para likelihood-based inference


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The social tags in web 2.0 are becoming another important information source to profile users' interests and preferences for making personalized recommendations. However, the uncontrolled vocabulary causes a lot of problems to profile users accurately, such as ambiguity, synonyms, misspelling, low information sharing etc. To solve these problems, this paper proposes to use popular tags to represent the actual topics of tags, the content of items, and also the topic interests of users. A novel user profiling approach is proposed in this paper that first identifies popular tags, then represents users’ original tags using the popular tags, finally generates users’ topic interests based on the popular tags. A collaborative filtering based recommender system has been developed that builds the user profile using the proposed approach. The user profile generated using the proposed approach can represent user interests more accurately and the information sharing among users in the profile is also increased. Consequently the neighborhood of a user, which plays a crucial role in collaborative filtering based recommenders, can be much more accurately determined. The experimental results based on real world data obtained from Amazon.com show that the proposed approach outperforms other approaches.

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Matrix function approximation is a current focus of worldwide interest and finds application in a variety of areas of applied mathematics and statistics. In this thesis we focus on the approximation of A^(-α/2)b, where A ∈ ℝ^(n×n) is a large, sparse symmetric positive definite matrix and b ∈ ℝ^n is a vector. In particular, we will focus on matrix function techniques for sampling from Gaussian Markov random fields in applied statistics and the solution of fractional-in-space partial differential equations. Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are multivariate normal random variables characterised by a sparse precision (inverse covariance) matrix. GMRFs are popular models in computational spatial statistics as the sparse structure can be exploited, typically through the use of the sparse Cholesky decomposition, to construct fast sampling methods. It is well known, however, that for sufficiently large problems, iterative methods for solving linear systems outperform direct methods. Fractional-in-space partial differential equations arise in models of processes undergoing anomalous diffusion. Unfortunately, as the fractional Laplacian is a non-local operator, numerical methods based on the direct discretisation of these equations typically requires the solution of dense linear systems, which is impractical for fine discretisations. In this thesis, novel applications of Krylov subspace approximations to matrix functions for both of these problems are investigated. Matrix functions arise when sampling from a GMRF by noting that the Cholesky decomposition A = LL^T is, essentially, a `square root' of the precision matrix A. Therefore, we can replace the usual sampling method, which forms x = L^(-T)z, with x = A^(-1/2)z, where z is a vector of independent and identically distributed standard normal random variables. Similarly, the matrix transfer technique can be used to build solutions to the fractional Poisson equation of the form ϕn = A^(-α/2)b, where A is the finite difference approximation to the Laplacian. Hence both applications require the approximation of f(A)b, where f(t) = t^(-α/2) and A is sparse. In this thesis we will compare the Lanczos approximation, the shift-and-invert Lanczos approximation, the extended Krylov subspace method, rational approximations and the restarted Lanczos approximation for approximating matrix functions of this form. A number of new and novel results are presented in this thesis. Firstly, we prove the convergence of the matrix transfer technique for the solution of the fractional Poisson equation and we give conditions by which the finite difference discretisation can be replaced by other methods for discretising the Laplacian. We then investigate a number of methods for approximating matrix functions of the form A^(-α/2)b and investigate stopping criteria for these methods. In particular, we derive a new method for restarting the Lanczos approximation to f(A)b. We then apply these techniques to the problem of sampling from a GMRF and construct a full suite of methods for sampling conditioned on linear constraints and approximating the likelihood. Finally, we consider the problem of sampling from a generalised Matern random field, which combines our techniques for solving fractional-in-space partial differential equations with our method for sampling from GMRFs.

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Association rule mining has made many advances in the area of knowledge discovery. However, the quality of the discovered association rules is a big concern and has drawn more and more attention recently. One problem with the quality of the discovered association rules is the huge size of the extracted rule set. Often for a dataset, a huge number of rules can be extracted, but many of them can be redundant to other rules and thus useless in practice. Mining non-redundant rules is a promising approach to solve this problem. In this paper, we firstly propose a definition for redundancy; then we propose a concise representation called Reliable basis for representing non-redundant association rules for both exact rules and approximate rules. An important contribution of this paper is that we propose to use the certainty factor as the criteria to measure the strength of the discovered association rules. With the criteria, we can determine the boundary between redundancy and non-redundancy to ensure eliminating as many redundant rules as possible without reducing the inference capacity of and the belief to the remaining extracted non-redundant rules. We prove that the redundancy elimination based on the proposed Reliable basis does not reduce the belief to the extracted rules. We also prove that all association rules can be deduced from the Reliable basis. Therefore the Reliable basis is a lossless representation of association rules. Experimental results show that the proposed Reliable basis can significantly reduce the number of extracted rules.

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Mobile robots are widely used in many industrial fields. Research on path planning for mobile robots is one of the most important aspects in mobile robots research. Path planning for a mobile robot is to find a collision-free route, through the robot’s environment with obstacles, from a specified start location to a desired goal destination while satisfying certain optimization criteria. Most of the existing path planning methods, such as the visibility graph, the cell decomposition, and the potential field are designed with the focus on static environments, in which there are only stationary obstacles. However, in practical systems such as Marine Science Research, Robots in Mining Industry, and RoboCup games, robots usually face dynamic environments, in which both moving and stationary obstacles exist. Because of the complexity of the dynamic environments, research on path planning in the environments with dynamic obstacles is limited. Limited numbers of papers have been published in this area in comparison with hundreds of reports on path planning in stationary environments in the open literature. Recently, a genetic algorithm based approach has been introduced to plan the optimal path for a mobile robot in a dynamic environment with moving obstacles. However, with the increase of the number of the obstacles in the environment, and the changes of the moving speed and direction of the robot and obstacles, the size of the problem to be solved increases sharply. Consequently, the performance of the genetic algorithm based approach deteriorates significantly. This motivates the research of this work. This research develops and implements a simulated annealing algorithm based approach to find the optimal path for a mobile robot in a dynamic environment with moving obstacles. The simulated annealing algorithm is an optimization algorithm similar to the genetic algorithm in principle. However, our investigation and simulations have indicated that the simulated annealing algorithm based approach is simpler and easier to implement. Its performance is also shown to be superior to that of the genetic algorithm based approach in both online and offline processing times as well as in obtaining the optimal solution for path planning of the robot in the dynamic environment. The first step of many path planning methods is to search an initial feasible path for the robot. A commonly used method for searching the initial path is to randomly pick up some vertices of the obstacles in the search space. This is time consuming in both static and dynamic path planning, and has an important impact on the efficiency of the dynamic path planning. This research proposes a heuristic method to search the feasible initial path efficiently. Then, the heuristic method is incorporated into the proposed simulated annealing algorithm based approach for dynamic robot path planning. Simulation experiments have shown that with the incorporation of the heuristic method, the developed simulated annealing algorithm based approach requires much shorter processing time to get the optimal solutions in the dynamic path planning problem. Furthermore, the quality of the solution, as characterized by the length of the planned path, is also improved with the incorporated heuristic method in the simulated annealing based approach for both online and offline path planning.

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Purpose: The purpose of this article is to investigate the engineering of creative urban regions through knowledge-based urban development. In recent years city administrators realised the importance of engineering and orchestrating knowledge city formation through visioning and planning for economic, socio-cultural and physical development. For that purpose a new development paradigm of ‘‘knowledge-based urban development’’ is formed, and quickly finds implementation ground in many parts of the globe.----- Design/methodology/approach: The paper reviews the literature and examines global best practice experiences in order to determine how cities are engineering their creative urban regions so as to establish a base for knowledge city formation.----- Findings: The paper sheds light on the different development approaches for creative urban regions, and concludes with recommendations for urban administrations planning for knowledge-based development of creative urban regions.----- Originality/value: The paper provides invaluable insights and discussion on the vital role of planning for knowledge-based urban development of creative urban regions.

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Cultural objects are increasingly generated and stored in digital form, yet effective methods for their indexing and retrieval still remain an important area of research. The main problem arises from the disconnection between the content-based indexing approach used by computer scientists and the description-based approach used by information scientists. There is also a lack of representational schemes that allow the alignment of the semantics and context with keywords and low-level features that can be automatically extracted from the content of these cultural objects. This paper presents an integrated approach to address these problems, taking advantage of both computer science and information science approaches. We firstly discuss the requirements from a number of perspectives: users, content providers, content managers and technical systems. We then present an overview of our system architecture and describe various techniques which underlie the major components of the system. These include: automatic object category detection; user-driven tagging; metadata transform and augmentation, and an expression language for digital cultural objects. In addition, we discuss our experience on testing and evaluating some existing collections, analyse the difficulties encountered and propose ways to address these problems.

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In this paper, we discuss our participation to the INEX 2008 Link-the-Wiki track. We utilized a sliding window based algorithm to extract the frequent terms and phrases. Using the extracted phrases and term as descriptive vectors, the anchors and relevant links (both incoming and outgoing) are recognized efficiently.

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We consider the problem of designing a surveillance system to detect a broad range of invasive species across a heterogeneous sampling frame. We present a model to detect a range of invertebrate invasives whilst addressing the challenges of multiple data sources, stratifying for differential risk, managing labour costs and providing sufficient power of detection.We determine the number of detection devices required and their allocation across the landscape within limiting resource constraints. The resulting plan will lead to reduced financial and ecological costs and an optimal surveillance system.

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The automatic extraction of road features from remote sensed images has been a topic of great interest within the photogrammetric and remote sensing communities for over 3 decades. Although various techniques have been reported in the literature, it is still challenging to efficiently extract the road details with the increasing of image resolution as well as the requirement for accurate and up-to-date road data. In this paper, we will focus on the automatic detection of road lane markings, which are crucial for many applications, including lane level navigation and lane departure warning. The approach consists of four steps: i) data preprocessing, ii) image segmentation and road surface detection, iii) road lane marking extraction based on the generated road surface, and iv) testing and system evaluation. The proposed approach utilized the unsupervised ISODATA image segmentation algorithm, which segments the image into vegetation regions, and road surface based only on the Cb component of YCbCr color space. A shadow detection method based on YCbCr color space is also employed to detect and recover the shadows from the road surface casted by the vehicles and trees. Finally, the lane marking features are detected from the road surface using the histogram clustering. The experiments of applying the proposed method to the aerial imagery dataset of Gympie, Queensland demonstrate the efficiency of the approach.

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Texture based techniques for visualisation of unsteady vector fields have been applied for the visualisation of a Finite volume model for variably saturated groundwater flow through porous media. This model has been developed by staff in the School of Mathematical Sciences QUT for the study of salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers. This presentation discusses the implementation and effectiveness of the IBFV algorithm in the context of visualisation of the groundwater simulation outputs.

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Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

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This paper reports on the research and development of an ICT tool to facilitate the learning of ratio and fractions by adult prisoners. The design of the ICT tool was informed by a semiotic framework for mathematical meaning-making. The ICT tool thus employed multiple semiotic resources including topological, typological, and social-actional resources. The results showed that individual semiotic resource could only represent part of the mathematical concept, while at the same time it might signify something else to create a misconception. When multiple semiotic resources were utilised the mathematical ideas could be better learnt.

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This paper aims to develop an effective numerical simulation technique for the dynamic deflection analysis of nanotubes-based nanoswitches. The nanoswitch is simplified to a continuum structure, and some key material parameters are extracted from typical molecular dynamics (MD). An advanced local meshless formulation is applied to obtain the discretized dynamic equations for the numerical solution. The developed numerical technique is firstly validated by the static deflection analyses of nanoswitches, and then, the fundamental dynamic properties of nanoswitches are analyzed. A parametric comparison with the results in the literature and from experiments shows that the developed modelling approach is accurate, efficient and effective.

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Modern machines are complex and often required to operate long hours to achieve production targets. The ability to detect symptoms of failure, hence, forecasting the remaining useful life of the machine is vital to prevent catastrophic failures. This is essential to reducing maintenance cost, operation downtime and safety hazard. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognosis models that attempt to forecast machinery health based on either condition data or reliability data. In practice, failure condition trending data are seldom kept by industries and data that ended with a suspension are sometimes treated as failure data. This paper presents a novel approach of incorporating historical failure data and suspended condition trending data in the prognostic model. The proposed model consists of a FFNN whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of Kaplan-Meier estimator and degradation-based failure PDF estimator. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. The viability of the model was tested using a set of industry vibration data.

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The researcher’s professional role as an Education Officer was the impetus for this study. Designing and implementing professional development activities is a significant component of the researcher’s position description and as a result of reflection and feedback from participants and colleagues, the creation of a more effective model of professional development became the focus for this study. Few studies have examined all three links between the purposes of professional development that is, increasing teacher knowledge, improving teacher practice, and improving student outcomes. This study is significant in that it investigates the nature of the growth of teachers who participated in a model of professional development which was based upon the principles of Lesson Study. The research provides qualitative and empirical data to establish some links between teacher knowledge, teacher practice, and student learning outcomes. Teacher knowledge in this study refers to mathematics content knowledge as well as pedagogical-content knowledge. The outcomes for students include achievement outcomes, attitudinal outcomes, and behavioural outcomes. As the study was conducted at one school-site, existence proof research was the focus of the methodology and data collection. Developing over the 2007 school year, with five teacher-participants and approximately 160 students from Year Levels 6 to 9, the Lesson Study-principled model of professional development provided the teacher-participants with on-site, on-going, and reflective learning based on their classroom environment. The focus area for the professional development was strategising the engagement with and solution of worded mathematics problems. A design experiment was used to develop the professional development as an intervention of prevailing teacher practice for which data were collected prior to and after the period of intervention. A model of teacher change was developed as an underpinning framework for the development of the study, and was useful in making decisions about data collection and analyses. Data sources consisted of questionnaires, pre-tests and post-tests, interviews, and researcher observations and field notes. The data clearly showed that: content knowledge and pedagogical-content knowledge were increased among the teacher-participants; teacher practice changed in a positive manner; and that a majority of students demonstrated improved learning outcomes. The positive changes to teacher practice are described in this study as the demonstrated use of mixed pedagogical practices rather than a polarisation to either traditional pedagogical practices or contemporary pedagogical practices. The improvement in student learning outcomes was most significant as improved achievement outcomes as indicated by the comparison of pre-test and post-test scores. The effectiveness of the Lesson Study-principled model of professional development used in this study was evaluated using Guskey’s (2005) Five Levels of Professional Development Evaluation.