981 resultados para life prediction


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To assess the effects of interventions for promoting the use of advance directives (ADs) about end-of-life decisions of adults

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Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

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BACKGROUND: The Multiple Sclerosis International Quality Of Life (MusiQoL) questionnaire, a 31-item, multidimensional, self-administrated questionnaire that is available in 14 languages including Spanish, has been validated using a large international sample. We investigated the validity and reliability of the Spanish version of MusiQoL in Spain. METHODS: Consecutive patients with different types and severities of multiple sclerosis (MS) were recruited from 22 centres across Spain. All patients completed the MusiQoL questionnaire, the 36-Item Short Form (SF-36) health survey, and a symptoms checklist at baseline and 21 days later. External validity, internal consistency, reliability and reproducibility were tested. RESULTS: A total of 224 Spanish patients were evaluated. Dimensions of MusiQoL generally demonstrated a high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha: 0.70-0.92 for all but two MusiQoL domain scores). External validity testing revealed that the MusiQoL index score correlated significantly with all SF-36 dimension scores (Pearson's correlation: 0.46-0.76), reproducibility was satisfactory (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.60-0.91), acceptability was high, and the time taken to complete the 31-item questionnaire was reasonable (mean [standard deviation]: 9.8 [11.8] minutes). CONCLUSIONS: The Spanish version of the MusiQoL questionnaire appears to be a valid and reliable instrument for measuring quality of life in patients with MS in Spain and constitutes a useful instrument to measure health-related quality of life in the clinical setting.

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Objective: The aim of this investigation was to assess the effect of malabsorptive bariatric surgery (BS) on the quality of life (QoL), applying the Nottingham Health Profile (NHP) and the bariatric analysis and reporting outcome system (BAROS). Design: A prospective cohort study was performed in 100 adult patients (> 18 years) undergoing bariatric surgery by malabsorptive technique for one year. Research methods and procedures: Patients were monitored from the beginning of the BS program until a year after the intervention, applying the NHP and the BAROS test. At baseline, the mean weight of the women was 132 ± 22 kg and the Body Mass Index (BMI) was 50.7 kg/m2. Results: The values obtained from different areas applying the NHP questionnaire showed statistical significant differences (p < 0.001) with respect to baseline values. According to the BAROS test, 48% of patients lost 25-49% of weight excess and 80.8% had resolved major comorbidities at 1 yr. According to the Moorehead-Ardelt QoL score, there were major improvements in employment and self-esteem in 89% and 87% of patients, respectively, and improvements in physical activity, sexual and social relationships. According to the total mean BAROS score, the outcome was considered “very good”. Conclusion: NHP and BAROS questionnaires appear to be useful and easily applicable tools to assess the QoL of obese patients.

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BACKGROUND: A simple prognostic model could help identify patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of death and are candidates for outpatient treatment. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 retrospectively identified inpatients who had a discharge diagnosis of pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our rule to predict 30-day mortality using classification tree analysis and patient data routinely available at initial examination as potential predictor variables. We used data from a European prospective study to externally validate the rule among 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism. We determined mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across derivation and validation samples. RESULTS: Our final model consisted of 10 patient factors (age > or = 70 years; history of cancer, heart failure, chronic lung disease, chronic renal disease, and cerebrovascular disease; and clinical variables of pulse rate > or = 110 beats/min, systolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, altered mental status, and arterial oxygen saturation < 90%). Patients with none of these factors were defined as low risk. The 30-day mortality rates for low-risk patients were 0.6%, 1.5%, and 0% in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation samples, respectively. The rates of nonfatal adverse medical outcomes were less than 1% among low-risk patients across all study samples. CONCLUSIONS: This simple prediction rule accurately identifies patients with pulmonary embolism who are at low risk of short-term mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Prospective validation of this rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid for outpatient treatment.

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A cohort initiated with 121 eggs, yielding 105 first instar nymphs (eclosion rate: 86.78%), allowed us to observe the entire life cycle of Triatoma ryckmani under laboratory conditions (24ºC and 62% relative humidity), by feeding them on anesthetized hamsters. It was possible to obtain 62 adults and the cycle from egg to adult took a mean of 359.69 days with a range of 176-529 days (mortality rate of nymphs: 40.95%). Mean life span of adults was of 81 days for females and 148 days for males. The developmental periods of 4th and 5th nymphs were longer than those of the other instars. This suggests that young siblings have a better chance of taking a hemolymph meal from older ones, in order to survive during fasting periods during prolonged absences of vertebrate hosts from natural ecotopes. The stomach contents of 37 insects showed blood from rodents (15 cases), lizards (7 cases), birds (6 cases) and insect hemolymph (7 cases). Out of 10 insects fed by xenodiagnosis on a Trypanosoma cruzi infected mouse, all but one became infected with the parasite.

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BACKGROUND: Recanalization in acute ischemic stroke with large-vessel occlusion is a potent indicator of good clinical outcome. OBJECTIVE: To identify easily available clinical and radiologic variables predicting recanalization at various occlusion sites. METHODS: All consecutive, acute stroke patients from the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (2003-2011) who had a large-vessel occlusion on computed tomographic angiography (CTA) (< 12 h) were included. Recanalization status was assessed at 24 h (range: 12-48 h) with CTA, magnetic resonance angiography, or ultrasonography. Complete and partial recanalization (corresponding to the modified Treatment in Cerebral Ischemia scale 2-3) were grouped together. Patients were categorized according to occlusion site and treatment modality. RESULTS: Among 439 patients, 51% (224) showed complete or partial recanalization. In multivariate analysis, recanalization of any occlusion site was most strongly associated with endovascular treatment, including bridging therapy (odds ratio [OR] 7.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-23.2), and less so with intravenous thrombolysis (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0-2.6) and recanalization treatments performed beyond guidelines (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.2-5.7). Clot location (large vs. intermediate) and tandem pathology (the combination of intracranial occlusion and symptomatic extracranial stenosis) were other variables discriminating between recanalizers and non-recanalizers. For patients with intracranial occlusions, the variables significantly associated with recanalization after 24 h were: baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.1), Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) on initial computed tomography (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1-1.3), and an altered level of consciousness (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1-0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Acute endovascular treatment is the single most important factor promoting recanalization in acute ischemic stroke. The presence of extracranial vessel stenosis or occlusion decreases recanalization rates. In patients with intracranial occlusions, higher NIHSS score and ASPECTS and normal vigilance facilitate recanalization. Clinical use of these predictors could influence recanalization strategies in individual patients.

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The aim of this validation study was to assess the measurement properties of the CECA (Spanish acronym for the Specific Questionnaire for Condylomata Acuminata) in patients with anogenital condylomas. A total of 247 patients aged > 18 years completed the questionnaire on 2 occasions as well as the Dermatology Life Quality Index (DLQI). The CECA questionnaire showed good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha values of 0.86 and 0.91 in the emotional and sexual activity dimensions) and good testretest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.76 emotional dimension, 0.82 sexual activity dimension). Patients with de novo lesions and those with more extensive lesions and larger number of warts showed poorer health-related quality of life. CECA and DLQI scores correlated moderately. Patients whose lesions cleared at follow-up or with a reduction of >or= 50% showed a better improvement of health-related quality of life. The CECA questionnaire is a valid, reliable and sensitive tool for the assessment of health-related quality of life in patients with anogenital warts.

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BACKGROUND The aim of the study was to identify the changes in Health Related Quality of Life (HRQL) 3 months after discharge from hospital, in patients who have had an acute coronary episode, and to determine the clinical and sociodemographic variables that explain those changes. METHODS HRQL was assessed in 132 patients while they were admitted to the hospital and at 3 months after discharge, using the SF-36 health questionnaire. To identify the variables associated with the change, multiple linear regression models were constructed for two summary dimensions of the SF-36 (PCS and MCS) taking the change in the score of the dimension as dependent variable. RESULTS There were no significant differences between the patients who completed the monitoring (n = 76) and those who were dropped out. After three months, a significant decrease was observed in the dimensions of physical functioning, general health, vitality, and Physical Summary Component (PCS). The variables revascularisation, age, and the interaction between previous history of coronary heart disease (CHD) and the presence of one or more risk factors explained 16.6% of the decrease in the PCS. The decrease in the PCS was 6.4 points less in the patients who had undergone revascularisation, 0.2 points less for each year of age, and 4.7 points less in the patients who had antecedents of the illness as well as one or more risk factors. CONCLUSION The dimensions most affected at three months after an acute coronary episode were those related to the physical component. Undergoing revascularisation improved the PCS in patients, but in the younger patients and those without personal antecedents or risk factors, the PCS was affected more, perhaps due to greater expectations for recovery in these patients.

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OBJECTIVES To assess the relationship between life styles and eating habits with the overweight and obesity prevalence in a Spanish adult population. METHODS A population-based, cross-sectional study conducted on 2640 subjects older than 15 years, in Cádiz (Spain). Surveys were conducted in subjects' homes to obtain life styles, eating habits, and anthropometric data. Logistic regression has been used to study the association between the life style variables and overweight and obesity. RESULTS Prevalence of overweight and obesity in Cadiz is 37% and 17%, respectively; higher in males and increases with age. BMI has an inverse relationship with educational level (PR = 2.3, 1.57-2.38). The highest levels of obesity are associated with daily alcohol consumption (PR = 1.39, 1.29-1.50), greater consumption of television,and sedentary pursuit (PR 1.5, 1.07-1.24). A lower prevalence of obesity is observed among those with active physical activity (10.9% vs 21.6%), with differences between sex. Following a slimming diet is more frequent in the obese and in women but dedicate more hours than men to passive activities. In men is greater the consumption of alcohol, high energy foods and snacks. Overweight and obesity is associated with the male sex (OR = 3.35 2.75-4.07), high consumption of alcohol (OR = 1.38 1.03-1.86) and watching television (OR = 1.52 1.11-2.07), and foods likes bread and cereals (OR = 1.47 1.13-1.91). Exercise activities is a protective factor (OR = 0.76 0.63-0.98). CONCLUSIONS Life styles factors associated with overweight and obesity present different patterns in men and women and is necessary to understand them to identify areas for behavioural intervention in overweight and obesity patients.

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Reduced reproduction is associated with increased fat storage and prolonged life span in multiple organisms, but the underlying regulatory mechanisms remain poorly understood. Recent studies in several species provide evidence that reproduction, fat metabolism, and longevity are directly coupled. For instance, germline removal in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans promotes longevity in part by modulating lipid metabolism through effects on fatty acid desaturation, lipolysis, and autophagy. Here, we review these recent studies and discuss the mechanisms by which reproduction modulates fat metabolism and life span. Elucidating the relationship between these processes could contribute to our understanding of age-related diseases including metabolic disorders.