Combining elicited expert knowledge into Bayesian priors

Information that is elicited from experts can be treated as `data', so can be analysed using a Bayesian statistical model, to formulate a prior model. Typically methods for encoding a single expert's knowledge have been parametric, constrained by the extent of an expert's knowledge and energy regarding a target parameter. Interestingly these methods have often been deterministic, in that all elicited information is treated at `face value', without error. Here we sought a parametric and statistical approach for encoding assessments from multiple experts. Our recent work proposed and demonstrated the use of a flexible hierarchical model for this purpose. In contrast to previous mathematical approaches like linear or geometric pooling, our new approach accounts for several sources of variation: elicitation error, encoding error and expert diversity. Of interest are the practical, mathematical and philosophical interpretations of this form of hierarchical pooling (which is both statistical and parametric), and how it fits within the subjective Bayesian paradigm. Case studies from a bioassay and project management (on PhDs) are used to illustrate the approach.

Variation in leaf structure of the invasive Madeira vine (Anredera cordifolia, Basellaceae) at different light levels

Madeira vine (Anredera cordifolia (Ten.) Steenis) is a climber in the angiosperm family Basellaceae. It is native to South America and has naturalised in Australia. It is regarded as a serious environmental weed because of the structural damage it causes to native vegetation. The present study, for the first time, documents anatomical and morphological traits of the leaves of A. cordifolia and considers their implications for its ecology and physiology. Plants were grown under three different light levels, and anatomical and morphological leaf characters were compared among light levels, among cohorts, and with documented traits of the related species, Basella alba L. Stomata were present on both the adaxial and abaxial sides of the leaf, with significantly more stomata on the abaxial side and under high light. This may account for the ability of this species to fix large amounts of carbon and rapidly respond to light gaps. The leaves had very narrow veins and no sclerenchyma, suggesting a low construction cost that is associated with invasive plants. There was no significant difference in any of the traits among different cohorts, which agrees with the claim that A. cordifolia primarily propagates vegetatively. The anatomy and morphology of A. cordifolia was similar to that of B. alba.

Knowledge transfer through dual degree programs between Australian and Indonesian universities : a case study

While dual degree programs (DDPs) between Australian and Indonesian universities are expected to facilitate knowledge transfer (KT) between the partnering universities, little is known about how and what KT process taking place within DDP partnerships. Using an inter-organisational KT framework, this study investigated Indonesian universities’ rationales and outcomes of establishing DDPs and mechanisms facilitating knowledge transfer between Australian and Indonesian universities. Two Indonesian universities along with their common Australian partner university participated in this case study. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 27 key university officers and pertinent university documents provided the main data. Both data sources were thematically analysed to identify emerging patterns. The findings suggest that Indonesian universities prioritised developing capacity to improve their international recognition more than the Australian partner. Consequently, the DDPs benefited the Indonesian universities through capacity development made possible by KT from the Australian DDP partners. KT processes occurred in DDP partnerships, particularly through curriculum collaboration, but they were more limited for the managerial area. Factors enabling the KT included both technology-aided and face-to-face communication, intention to acquire knowledge from the partners, capitalising on the unequal power relations to advance KT opportunities, and knowledge management system. The findings of this study suggest the importance of prioritising capacity development in DDP partnerships to enable KT, executing the KT stages to ensure institutionalisation of acquired knowledge into the university’s systems and policies, and maintaining financial sustainability of the DDPs to reach mutually beneficial outcomes between Australian and Indonesian universities.

Mapping semantic knowledge for unsupervised text categorisation

Text categorisation is challenging, due to the complex structure with heterogeneous, changing topics in documents. The performance of text categorisation relies on the quality of samples, effectiveness of document features, and the topic coverage of categories, depending on the employing strategies; supervised or unsupervised; single labelled or multi-labelled. Attempting to deal with these reliability issues in text categorisation, we propose an unsupervised multi-labelled text categorisation approach that maps the local knowledge in documents to global knowledge in a world ontology to optimise categorisation result. The conceptual framework of the approach consists of three modules; pattern mining for feature extraction; feature-subject mapping for categorisation; concept generalisation for optimised categorisation. The approach has been promisingly evaluated by compared with typical text categorisation methods, based on the ground truth encoded by human experts.

Analyzing and defining information requirements of knowledge intensive construction management tasks on BIM

With the increasing popularity and adoption of building information modeling (BIM), the amount of digital information available about a building is overwhelming. Enormous challenges remain however in identifying meaningful and required information from a complex BIM model to support a particular construction management (CM) task. Detailed specifications of information required by different construction domains and expressive and easy-to-use BIM reasoning mechanisms are seen as an important means in addressing these challenges. This paper analyzes some of the characteristics and requirements of component-specific construction knowledge in relation to the current work practice and BIM-based applications. It is argued that domain ontologies and information extraction approaches, such as queries could significantly bring much needed support for knowledge sharing and integration of information between design, construction and facility management.

Maintaining shared knowledge of acquaintance : methods people use to establish who knows whom

Acquaintance is a fundamental determinant of how people behave when interacting with one another. This article focuses on how this type of personal knowledge is an important consideration for people as social actors. Studying naturally-occurring social encounters, I describe how speakers use particular references to convey whether a recipient should be able to recognise a non-present third party. On some occasions, however, the presumption of recognisability or non-recognisability that underpins the use of a particular reference proves questionable. By exploring how recipients can challenge reference forms, and thereby reject claims of either recognisability or non-recognisability, I explain how people establish and maintain a shared understanding of who knows whom. I conclude by discussing motivations for this behaviour, and thereby contribute to understanding the commonsense reasoning that underpins orderly conduct in this aspect of social encounters.

Indigenous knowledge and IP food security : a review of concepts and cases

Dáwat, Pamahándí, Tawíd, Ságda, Lampísa, Ibabások, Lapát, Panedlák: for most of us gathered here, these are words that we don’t usually use in our daily lives. Others may consider them as exotic, alien, funny and even backward. However, for indigenous kindred among us, these words denote an intimate identity and deep understanding of the world around them. It constitutes a broader knowledge system, be written or otherwise, which guides them in the management of resources within their ancestral land. This paper will provide a brief theoretical framework of the concepts of indigenous knowledge systems—hereinafter called IKS, and indigenous peoples food security, and hopefully a deeper or continued appreciation in the study of both concepts in general.

A data mining driven risk profiling method for road asset management

Road surface skid resistance has been shown to have a strong relationship to road crash risk, however, applying the current method of using investigatory levels to identify crash prone roads is problematic as they may fail in identifying risky roads outside of the norm. The proposed method analyses a complex and formerly impenetrable volume of data from roads and crashes using data mining. This method rapidly identifies roads with elevated crash-rate, potentially due to skid resistance deficit, for investigation. A hypothetical skid resistance/crash risk curve is developed for each road segment, driven by the model deployed in a novel regression tree extrapolation method. The method potentially solves the problem of missing skid resistance values which occurs during network-wide crash analysis, and allows risk assessment of the major proportion of roads without skid resistance values.

An investigation of factors influencing diabetes self-management among adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam

Background: In diabetes care, health care professionals need to provide support for their patients. In order to provide good diabetes self-management support for adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam, it is important that health care professionals in Vietnam understand the factors influencing diabetes self-management among these people. However, knowledge about factors influencing diabetes self-management among adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam is limited. Objectives: This study aimed to investigate factors influencing diabetes self-management among adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam. Methodology: A cross-sectional survey with convenience sampling was conducted on 198 adults with type 2 diabetes in VietnamData collection was administeted via interview. Descriptive statistics, simple correlation statistics and structural equation modelling statistics were used for data analysis. Results: Adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam had limited diabetes knowledge (Median = 6.0). The majority of the study participants (72.7%) believed that performing diabetes self-management activities was very important or extremely important for controlling their blood glucose levels and for preventing complications from diabetes; about half usually received support from their family and friends’ (48.5%), and around two thirds rarely received support from their health care providers (68.2%). Many of the participants (41.4%) had limited confidence to perform diabetes management activities. The practices of diabetes self-management were limited among the study population (Mean = 96.7, SD = 19.4). Diabetes knowledge (β = 0.17, p < .001), belief in treatment effectiveness (β = 0.13, p < .01), family and friends’ support (β = 0.13, p < .001), health care providers’ support (β = 0.27, p < .001) and diabetes management self-efficacy (β = 0.43, p < .001) directly influenced their diabetes self-management. Diabetes knowledge, and family and friends’ support also indirectly influenced diabetes self-management among these people through their belief in treatment effectiveness and their diabetes management self-efficacy (p < .05). Conclusion: Findings in this study indicated that health care professionals should provide diabetes self-management support for adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam in the future. The adapted theory-based model of factors influencing diabetes self-management among adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam found in this study could be a useful framework to develop this supporting program.

Something’s coming, something good: Identifying TPACK competence in pre-service teachers’ analyses of learning objects

There is a song at the beginning of the musical, West Side Story, where the character Tony sings that “something’s coming, something good.” The song is an anthem of optimism, brimming with promise. This paper is about the long-held promise of information and communication technology (ICT) to transform teaching and learning, to modernise the learning environment of the classroom, and to create a new digital pedagogy. But much of our experience to date in the schooling sector tells more of resistance and reaction than revolution, of more of the same but with a computer in the corner and of ICT activities as unwelcome time-fillers/time-wasters. Recently, a group of pre-service teachers in a postgraduate primary education degree in an Australian university were introduced to learning objects in an ICT immersion program. Their analyses and related responses, as recorded in online journals, have here been interpreted in terms of TPACK (Technological Pedagogical and Content Knowledge). Against contemporary observation, these students generally displayed high levels of competence and highly positive dispositions of students to the integration of ICT in their future classrooms. In short, they displayed the same optimism and confidence as the fictional “Tony” in believing that something good was coming.

Modelling risk at low exposure railway level crossings : supporting an argument for low-cost level crossing warning devices with lower levels of safety integrity

This paper describes a risk model for estimating the likelihood of collisions at low-exposure railway level crossings, demonstrating the effect that differences in safety integrity can have on the likelihood of a collision. The model facilitates the comparison of safety benefits between level crossings with passive controls (stop or give-way signs) and level crossings that have been hypothetically upgraded with conventional or low-cost warning devices. The scenario presented illustrates how treatment of a cross-section of level crossings with low cost devices can provide a greater safety benefit compared to treatment with conventional warning devices for the same budget.

Modeling the cumulative genetic risk for multiple sclerosis from genome-wide association data

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of chronic neurologic disability beginning in early to middle adult life. Results from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have substantially lengthened the list of disease loci and provide convincing evidence supporting a multifactorial and polygenic model of inheritance. Nevertheless, the knowledge of MS genetics remains incomplete, with many risk alleles still to be revealed. Methods: We used a discovery GWAS dataset (8,844 samples, 2,124 cases and 6,720 controls) and a multi-step logistic regression protocol to identify novel genetic associations. The emerging genetic profile included 350 independent markers and was used to calculate and estimate the cumulative genetic risk in an independent validation dataset (3,606 samples). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was implemented to compare clinical characteristics of individuals with various degrees of genetic risk. Gene ontology and pathway enrichment analysis was done using the DAVID functional annotation tool, the GO Tree Machine, and the Pathway-Express profiling tool. Results: In the discovery dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk (P-Hat) was 0.903 and 0.007 in the case and control groups, respectively, together with 79.9% classification sensitivity and 95.8% specificity. The identified profile shows a significant enrichment of genes involved in the immune response, cell adhesion, cell communication/ signaling, nervous system development, and neuronal signaling, including ionotropic glutamate receptors, which have been implicated in the pathological mechanism driving neurodegeneration. In the validation dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk was 0.59 and 0.32 in the case and control groups, respectively, with classification sensitivity 62.3% and specificity 75.9%. No differences in disease progression or T2-lesion volumes were observed among four levels of predicted genetic risk groups (high, medium, low, misclassified). On the other hand, a significant difference (F = 2.75, P = 0.04) was detected for age of disease onset between the affected misclassified as controls (mean = 36 years) and the other three groups (high, 33.5 years; medium, 33.4 years; low, 33.1 years). Conclusions: The results are consistent with the polygenic model of inheritance. The cumulative genetic risk established using currently available genome-wide association data provides important insights into disease heterogeneity and completeness of current knowledge in MS genetics.

European and Polynesian admixture in the Norfolk Island population

The Norfolk Island population in the South Pacific is primarily the product of recent admixture between a small number of British male and Polynesian female founders. We identified and genotyped 128 Ancestry Informative Markers (AIMs) spread across the autosomes, X/Y chromosomes and mitochondrial DNA genome, to explore and quantify the current levels of genetic admixture in the Norfolk Islanders. On the basis of autosomal AIMs, the population shows mean European and Polynesian ancestry proportions of 88 and 12%, respectively. However, there is a substantial variation between individuals ranging from total European ancestry to near total Polynesian origin. There is a strong correlation between individual genetic estimates of Polynesian ancestry and those derived from the extensive pedigree and genealogical records of Islanders. Also in line with historical accounts, there is a substantial asymmetry in the maternal and paternal origins of the Islanders with almost all Y-chromosomes of European origin whereas at least 25% of mtDNAs appear to have a Polynesian origin. Accurate knowledge of ancestry will be important in future attempts to use the Island population in admixture mapping approaches to find the genes that underlie differences in the risk to some diseases between Europeans and Polynesians.

An ecological approach towards building knowledge cities

Purpose A knowledge-based urban development needs to be sustainable and, therefore, requires ecological planning strategies to ensure a better quality of its services. The purpose of this paper is to present an innovative approach for monitoring the sustainability of urban services and help the policy-making authorities to revise the current planning and development practices for more effective solutions. The paper introduces a new assessment tool–Micro-level Urban-ecosystem Sustainability IndeX (MUSIX) – that provides a quantitative measure of urban sustainability in a local context. Design/methodology/approach A multi-method research approach was employed in the construction of the MUSIX. A qualitative research was conducted through an interpretive and critical literature review in developing a theoretical framework and indicator selection. A quantitative research was conducted through statistical and spatial analyses in data collection, processing and model application. Findings/results MUSIX was tested in a pilot study site and provided information referring to the main environmental impacts arising from rapid urban development and population growth. Related to that, some key ecological planning strategies were recommended to guide the preparation and assessment of development and local area plans. Research limitations/implications This study provided fundamental information that assists developers, planners and policy-makers to investigate the multidimensional nature of sustainability at the local level by capturing the environmental pressures and their driving forces in highly developed urban areas. Originality/value This study measures the sustainability of urban development plans through providing data analysis and interpretation of results in a new spatial data unit.