Planning under partial observability by classical replanning: theory and experiments

Planning with partial observability can be formulated as a non-deterministic search problem in belief space. The problem is harder than classical planning as keeping track of beliefs is harder than keeping track of states, and searching for action policies is harder than searching for action sequences. In this work, we develop a framework for partial observability that avoids these limitations and leads to a planner that scales up to larger problems. For this, the class of problems is restricted to those in which 1) the non-unary clauses representing the uncertainty about the initial situation are nvariant, and 2) variables that are hidden in the initial situation do not appear in the body of conditional effects, which are all assumed to be deterministic. We show that such problems can be translated in linear time into equivalent fully observable non-deterministic planning problems, and that an slight extension of this translation renders the problem solvable by means of classical planners. The whole approach is sound and complete provided that in addition, the state-space is connected. Experiments are also reported.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Frontshear and backshear instabilities of the mean longshore current

An analytical model based on Bowen and Holman [1989] is used to prove the existence of instabilities due to the presence of a second extremum of the background vorticity at the front side of the longshore current. The growth rate of the so-called frontshear waves depends primarily upon the frontshear but also upon the backshear and the maximum and the width of the current. Depending on the values of these parameters, either the frontshear or the backshear instabilities may dominate. Both types of waves have a cross-shore extension of the order of the width of the current, but the frontshear modes are localized closer to the coast than are the backshear modes. Moreover, under certain conditions both unstable waves have similar growth rates with close wave numbers and angular frequencies, leading to the possibility of having modulated shear waves in the alongshore direction. Numerical analysis performed on realistic current profiles confirm the behavior anticipated by the analytical model. The theory has been applied to a current profile fitted to data measured during the 1980 Nearshore Sediment Transport Studies experiment at Leadbetter Beach that has an extremum of background vorticity at the front side of the current. In this case and in agreement with field observations, the model predicts instability, whereas the theory based only on backshear instability fai led to do so.

Regulation of frizzled receptor activity at the plasma membrane : an interplay of the receptor, the trimeric G protein Go, and RGS protein and a scaffolding protein Kermit

G-protein-signaling pathways convey extracellular signals inside the cells and regulate distinct physiological responses. This type of signaling pathways consists of three major components: G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), heterotrimeric G proteins (G-proteins) and downstream effectors. Upon ligand binding, GPCRs activate heterotrimeric G proteins to initiate the signaling cascade. Dysfunction of GPCR signaling correlates with numerous diseases such as diabetes, nervous and immune system deficiency, and cancer. As the signaling switcher, G-proteins (Gs, Gq/11, G12/13, and Gi/o) have been an appealing topic of research for decades. A heterotrimeric G-protein is composed of three subunits, the guanine nucleotide associated a-subunit, ß and y subunits. In general, the duration of signaling is determined by the lifetime of activated (GTP bound) Ga subunits. Identification of novel communication partners of Ga subunits appears to be an attractive way to understand the machinery of GPCR signaling. In our lab, we mainly focus on Gao, which is abundantly expressed in the nervous system. Here we present two novel interacting partners of Drosophila Gao: Dhit and Kermit, identified through yeast two-hybrid screening and genetic screening respectively. Dhit is characterized by a small size with a conserved RGS domain and an N-terminal cysteine rich motif. The RGS domain possesses the GAP (GTPase activating protein) activity towards G proteins. However, we found that Dhit exerts not only the GAP activity but also the GDI (guanine nucleotide dissociation inhibitor) activity towards Gao. The unexpected GDI activity is preserved in GAIP/RGS19 - a mammalian homologue of Dhit. Further experiments confirmed the GDI activity of Dhit and GAIP/RGS19 in Drosophila and mammalian cell models. Therefore, we propose that Dhit and its mammalian homologues modulate GPCR signaling by a double suppression of Ga subunits - suppression of their nucleotide exchange with GTP and acceleration of their hydrolysis of GTP. Kermit/GEPC was first identified as a binding partner of GAIP/RGS19 in a yeast two- hybrid screen. Instead of interacting with the Drosophila homologue of GAIP/RGS19 (Dhit), Kermit binds to Gao in vivo and in vitro. The functional consequence of Kermit/Gao interaction is the regulation of localization of Vang (one of the planar cell polarity core components) at the apical membrane. Overall, my work elaborated the action of Gao with its two interaction partners in Gao- mediated signaling pathway. Conceivably, the understanding of GPCR signaling including Gao and its regulators or effectors will ultimately shed light on future pharmaceutical research. - Les voies de signalisation médiées par les protéines G transmettent des signaux extracellulaires à l'intérieur des cellules pour réguler des réponses physiologiques distinctes. Cette voie de signalisation consiste en trois composants majeurs : les récepteurs couplés aux protéines G (GPCRs), les protéines G hétérotrimériques (G-proteins) et les effecteurs en aval. Suite à la liaison du ligand, les GPCRs activent les protéines G hétérotrimériques qui initient la cascade de signalisation. Des dysfonctions dans la signalisation médiée par les GPCRs sont corrélées avec de nombreuses maladies comme le diabète, des déficiences immunes et nerveuses, ainsi que le cancer. Puisque la voie de signalisation s'active et se désactive, les protéines G (Gs, Gq/11, G12/13 et Gi/o) ont été un sujet de recherche attrayant pendant des décennies. Une protéine G hétérotrimérique est composée de trois sous-unités, la sous-unité a associée au nucléotide guanine, ainsi que les sous-unités ß et y. En général, la durée du signal est déterminée par le temps de demi-vie des sous-unités Ga activées (Ga liées au GTP). Identifier de nouveaux partenaires de communication des sous-unités Ga se révèle être un moyen attractif de comprendre la machinerie de la signalisation par les GPCRs. Dans notre laboratoire nous nous sommes concentrés principalement sur Gao qui est exprimée de manière abondante dans le système nerveux. Nous présentons ici deux nouveaux partenaires qui interagissent avec Gao chez la drosophile: Dhit et Kermit, qui ont été identifiés respectivement par la méthode du yeast two-hybrid et par criblage génétique. Dhit est caractérisé par une petite taille, avec un domaine RGS conservé et un motif N- terminal riche en cystéines. Le domaine RGS contient une activité GAP (GTPase activating protein) pour les protéines G. Toutefois, nous avons découvert que Dhit exerce non seulement une activité GAP mais aussi une activité GDI (guanine nucleotide dissociation inhibitor) à l'égard de Gao. Cette activité GDI inattendue est préservée dans RGS19 - un homologue de Dhit chez les mammifères. Des expériences supplémentaires ont confirmé l'activité GDI de Dhit et de RGS19 chez Drosophila melanogaster et les modèles cellulaires mammifères. Par conséquent, nous proposons que Dhit et ses homologues mammifères modulent la signalisation GPCR par une double suppression des sous-unités Ga - suppression de leur nucléotide d'échange avec le GTP et une accélération dans leur hydrolyse du GTP. Kermit/GIPC a été premièrement identifié comme un partenaire de liaison de RGS19 dans le criblage par yeast two-hybrid. Au lieu d'interagir avec l'homologue chez la drosophile de RGS19 (Dhit), Kermit se lie à Gao in vivo et in vitro. La conséquence fonctionnelle de l'interaction Kermit/Gao est la régulation de la localisation de Vang, un des composants essentiel de la polarité planaire cellulaire, à la membrane apicale. Globalement, mon travail a démontré l'action de Gao avec ses deux partenaires d'interaction dans la voie de signalisation médiée par Gao. La compréhension de la signalisation par les GPCRs incluant Gao et ses régulateurs ou effecteurs aboutira à mettre en lumière de futurs axes dans la recherche pharmacologique.

Machine learning for spatial environmental data. Theory, applications and software

The book presents the state of the art in machine learning algorithms (artificial neural networks of different architectures, support vector machines, etc.) as applied to the classification and mapping of spatially distributed environmental data. Basic geostatistical algorithms are presented as well. New trends in machine learning and their application to spatial data are given, and real case studies based on environmental and pollution data are carried out. The book provides a CD-ROM with the Machine Learning Office software, including sample sets of data, that will allow both students and researchers to put the concepts rapidly to practice.

Theory of Wetting-Induced Fluid Entrainment by Advancing Contact Lines on Dry Surfaces

We report on the onset of fluid entrainment when a contact line is forced to advance over a dry solid of arbitrary wettability. We show that entrainment occurs at a critical advancing speed beyond which the balance between capillary, viscous, and contact-line forces sustaining the shape of the interface is no longer satisfied. Wetting couples to the hydrodynamics by setting both the morphology of the interface at small scales and the viscous friction of the front. We find that the critical deformation that the interface can sustain is controlled by the friction at the contact line and the viscosity contrast between the displacing and displaced fluids, leading to a rich variety of wetting-entrainment regimes. We discuss the potential use of our theory to measure contact-line forces using atomic force microscopy and to study entrainment under microfluidic conditions exploiting colloid-polymer fluids of ultralow surface tension.

Constraints on effective field theory parameters for the Lambda N -> NN transition

The relation between the low-energy constants appearing in the effective field theory description of the Lambda N -> NN transition potential and the parameters of the one-meson-exchange model previously developed is obtained. We extract the relative importance of the different exchange mechanisms included in the meson picture by means of a comparison to the corresponding operational structures appearing in the effective approach. The ability of this procedure to obtain the weak baryon-baryon-meson couplings for a possible scalar exchange is also discussed.

Constraints on effective field theory parameters for the Lambda N -> NN transition

The relation between the low-energy constants appearing in the effective field theory description of the Lambda N -> NN transition potential and the parameters of the one-meson-exchange model previously developed is obtained. We extract the relative importance of the different exchange mechanisms included in the meson picture by means of a comparison to the corresponding operational structures appearing in the effective approach. The ability of this procedure to obtain the weak baryon-baryon-meson couplings for a possible scalar exchange is also discussed.

Populations with elevated mutation load do not benefit from the operation of sexual selection.

Theory predicts that if most mutations are deleterious to both overall fitness and condition-dependent traits affecting mating success, sexual selection will purge mutation load and increase nonsexual fitness. We explored this possibility with populations of mutagenized Drosophila melanogaster exhibiting elevated levels of deleterious variation and evolving in the presence or absence of male-male competition and female choice. After 60 generations of experimental evolution, monogamous populations exhibited higher total reproductive output than polygamous populations. Parental environment also affected fitness measures - flies that evolved in the presence of sexual conflict showed reduced nonsexual fitness when their parents experienced a polygamous environment, indicating trans-generational effects of male harassment and highlighting the importance of a common garden design. This cost of parental promiscuity was nearly absent in monogamous lines, providing evidence for the evolution of reduced sexual antagonism. There was no overall difference in egg-to-adult viability between selection regimes. If mutation load was reduced by the action of sexual selection in this experiment, the resultant gain in fitness was not sufficient to overcome the costs of sexual antagonism.

A general theory of rank testing

This paper develops an approach to rank testing that nests all existing rank tests andsimplifies their asymptotics. The approach is based on the fact that implicit in every ranktest there are estimators of the null spaces of the matrix in question. The approach yieldsmany new insights about the behavior of rank testing statistics under the null as well as localand global alternatives in both the standard and the cointegration setting. The approach alsosuggests many new rank tests based on alternative estimates of the null spaces as well as thenew fixed-b theory. A brief Monte Carlo study illustrates the results.