An Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Policy Reaction Function in India

This paper empirically analyzes India’s monetary policy reaction function by applying the Taylor (1993) rule and its open-economy version which employs dynamic OLS. The analysis uses monthly data from the period of April 1998 to December 2007. When the simple Taylor rule was estimated for India, the output gap coefficient was statistically significant, and its sign condition was found to be consistent with theoretical rationale; however, the same was not true of the inflation coefficient. When the Taylor rule with exchange rate was estimated, the coefficients of output gap and exchange rate had statistical significance with the expected signs, whereas the results of inflation remained the same as before. Therefore, the inflation rate has not played a role in the conduct of India’s monetary policy, and it is inappropriate for India to adopt an inflation-target type policy framework.

What Explains Real and Nominal Exchange Rate Fluctuations? Evidence from SVAR Analysis for India

This study empirically analyzes the sources of the exchange rate fluctuations in India by employing the structural VAR model. The VAR system consists of three variables, i.e., the nominal exchange rate, the real exchange rate, and the relative output of India and a foreign country. Consistent with most previous studies, the empirical evidence demonstrates that real shocks are the main drives of the fluctuations in real and nominal exchange rates, indicating that the central bank cannot maintain the real exchange rate at its desired level over time.

Separation of Control and Cash-Flow Rights of State Owned Listed Enterprises: Channels of Expropriation after the Discriminated Share Reform in China

Literature on agency problems arising between controlling and minority owners claim that separation of cash flow and control rights allows controllers to expropriate listed firms, and further that separation emerges when dual class shares or pyramiding corporate structures exist. Dual class share and pyramiding coexisted in listed companies of China until discriminated share reform was implemented in 2005. This paper presents a model of controller to expropriate behavior as well as empirical tests of expropriation via particular accounting items and pyramiding generated expropriation. Results show that expropriation is apparent for state controlled listed companies. While reforms have weakened the power to expropriate, separation remains and still generates expropriation. Size of expropriation is estimated to be 7 to 8 per cent of total asset at mean. If the "one share, one vote" principle were to be realized, asset inflation could be reduced by 13 percent.

How has financial deepening affected poverty reduction in India? : empirical analysis using state-level panel data

This paper examines empirically whether financial deepening has contributed to poverty reduction in India. Using unbalanced panel data for 28 states and union territories between 1973 and 2004, we estimate models in which the poverty ratio is explained by financial deepening, controlling for international openness, inflation rate, and economic growth. From the dynamic generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation, we find that financial deepening and economic growth alleviate poverty, while international openness and the inflation rate have the opposite effect. These results are robust to changes in the poverty ratios in rural areas, urban areas, and the whole economy.

Restructuring the state budget system for disinflation and exchange rate unification in Myanmar

The installment of a new government has augmented the prospect for implementing disinflation and exchange rate unification in Myanmar. A close look at the state budget shows that the reform of the budget system for state economic enterprises (SEEs) is essential. Reforms need to hold the replacement of controlled prices including the official exchange rate with market prices in SEE operations, and the separation of the SEEs from the state budget. But separating the SEEs from the state budget will necessitate careful planning to cope with SEE bankruptcies which would imposes another fiscal burden on the government. Therefore, economic viability must be a criterion for the continuation of their operations.

Evidence for a disaggregation of the universe.

Combining the kinematical definitions of the two dimensionless parameters, the deceleration q(x) and the Hubble t 0 H(x), we get a differential equation (where x=t/t 0 is the age of the universe relative to its present value t 0). First integration gives the function H(x). The present values of the Hubble parameter H(1) [approximately t 0 H(1)≈1], and the deceleration parameter [approximately q(1)≈−0.5], determine the function H(x). A second integration gives the cosmological scale factor a(x). Differentiation of a(x) gives the speed of expansion of the universe. The evolution of the universe that results from our approach is: an initial extremely fast exponential expansion (inflation), followed by an almost linear expansion (first decelerated, and later accelerated). For the future, at approximately t≈3t 0 there is a final exponential expansion, a second inflation that produces a disaggregation of the universe to infinity. We find the necessary and sufficient conditions for this disaggregation to occur. The precise value of the final age is given only with one parameter: the present value of the deceleration parameter [q(1)≈−0.5]. This emerging picture of the history of the universe represents an important challenge, an opportunity for the immediate research on the Universe. These conclusions have been elaborated without the use of any particular cosmological model of the universe

A comparative analysis of road financing approaches in Europe and the United States

• The viability of the present system of road funding has in recent years been widely questioned, for it has proved insufficient to support spending programs at their current levels. • Some transfers from the general fund have been needed since 2008 to keep the HTF solvent. • Fuel taxes, the primary source for funding roads in the US, have not kept pace with inflation for years. • A wide variety of measures to increase revenue has been presented: raising fuel taxes, extending toll highways, implementing a VMT fee, etc.

Discontinuous solutions and boundary value problems for non-linearly elastic fibre-reinforced materials

En este trabajo se han analizado varios problemas en el contexto de la elasticidad no lineal basándose en modelos constitutivos representativos. En particular, se han analizado problemas relacionados con el fenómeno de perdida de estabilidad asociada con condiciones de contorno en el caso de material reforzados con fibras. Cada problema se ha formulado y se ha analizado por separado en diferentes capítulos. En primer lugar se ha mostrado el análisis del gradiente de deformación discontinuo para un material transversalmente isótropo, en particular, el modelo del material considerado consiste de una base neo-Hookeana isótropa incrustada con fibras de refuerzo direccional caracterizadas con un solo parámetro. La solución de este problema se vincula con instabilidades que dan lugar al mecanismo de fallo conocido como banda de cortante. La perdida de elipticidad de las ecuaciones diferenciales de equilibrio es una condición necesaria para que aparezca este tipo de soluciones y por tanto las inestabilidades asociadas. En segundo lugar se ha analizado una deformación combinada de extensión, inación y torsión de un tubo cilíndrico grueso donde se ha encontrado que la deformación citada anteriormente puede ser controlada solo para determinadas direcciones de las fibras refuerzo. Para entender el comportamiento elástico del tubo considerado se ha ilustrado numéricamente los resultados obtenidos para las direcciones admisibles de las fibras de refuerzo bajo la deformación considerada. En tercer lugar se ha estudiado el caso de un tubo cilíndrico grueso reforzado con dos familias de fibras sometido a cortante en la dirección azimutal para un modelo de refuerzo especial. En este problema se ha encontrado que las inestabilidades que aparecen en el material considerado están asociadas con lo que se llama soluciones múltiples de la ecuación diferencial de equilibrio. Se ha encontrado que el fenómeno de instabilidad ocurre en un estado de deformación previo al estado de deformación donde se pierde la elipticidad de la ecuación diferencial de equilibrio. También se ha demostrado que la condición de perdida de elipticidad y ^W=2 = 0 (la segunda derivada de la función de energía con respecto a la deformación) son dos condiciones necesarias para la existencia de soluciones múltiples. Finalmente, se ha analizado detalladamente en el contexto de elipticidad un problema de un tubo cilíndrico grueso sometido a una deformación combinada en las direcciones helicoidal, axial y radial para distintas geotermias de las fibras de refuerzo . In the present work four main problems have been addressed within the framework of non-linear elasticity based on representative constitutive models. Namely, problems related to the loss of stability phenomena associated with boundary value problems for fibre-reinforced materials. Each of the considered problems is formulated and analysed separately in different chapters. We first start with the analysis of discontinuous deformation gradients for a transversely isotropic material under plane deformation. In particular, the material model is an augmented neo-Hookean base with a simple unidirectional reinforcement characterised by a single parameter. The solution of this problem is related to material instabilities and it is associated with a shear band-type failure mode. The loss of ellipticity of the governing differential equations is a necessary condition for the existence of these material instabilities. The second problem involves a detailed analysis of the combined non-linear extension, inflation and torsion of a thick-walled circular cylindrical tube where it has been found that the aforementioned deformation is controllable only for certain preferred directions of transverse isotropy. Numerical results have been illustrated to understand the elastic behaviour of the tube for the admissible preferred directions under the considered deformation. The third problem deals with the analysis of a doubly fibre-reinforced thickwalled circular cylindrical tube undergoing pure azimuthal shear for a special class of the reinforcing model where multiple non-smooth solutions emerge. The associated instability phenomena are found to occur prior to the point where the nominal stress tensor changes monotonicity in a particular direction. It has been also shown that the loss of ellipticity condition that arises from the equilibrium equation and ^W=2 = 0 (the second derivative of the strain-energy function with respect to the deformation) are equivalent necessary conditions for the emergence of multiple solutions for the considered material. Finally, a detailed analysis in the basis of the loss of ellipticity of the governing differential equations for a combined helical, axial and radial elastic deformations of a fibre-reinforced circular cylindrical tube is carried out.

Limit load instabilities in structural elements

Este trabajo analiza distintas inestabilidades en estructuras formadas por distintos materiales. En particular, se capturan y se modelan las inestabilidades usando el método de Riks. Inicialmente, se analiza la bifurcación en depósitos cilíndricos formados por material anisótropo sometidos a carga axial y presión interna. El análisis de bifurcación y post-bifurcación asociados con cilindros de pared gruesa se formula para un material incompresible reforzado con dos fibras que son mecánicamente equivalentes y están dispuestas simétricamente. Consideramos dos casos en la naturaleza de la anisotropía: (i) Fibras refuerzo que tienen una influencia particular sobre la respuesta a cortante del material y (ii) Fibras refuerzo que influyen sólo si la fibra cambia de longitud con la deformación. Se analiza la propagación de las inestabilidades. En concreto, se diferencia en el abultamiento (bulging) entre la propagación axial y la propagación radial de la inestabilidad. Distintos modelos sufren una u otra propagación. Por último, distintas inestabilidades asociadas al mecanismo de ablandamiento del material (material softening) en contraposición al de endurecimiento (hardening) en una estructura (viga) de a: hormigón y b: hormigón reforzado son modeladas utilizando una metodología paralela a la desarrollada en el análisis de inestabilidades en tubos sometidos a presión interna. This present work deals with the instability of structures made of various materials. It captures and models different types of instabilities using numerical analysis. Firstly, we consider bifurcation for anisotropic cylindrical shells subject to axial loading and internal pressure. Analysis of bifurcation and post bifurcation of inflated hyperelastic thick-walled cylinder is formulated using a numerical procedure based on the modified Riks method for an incompressible material with two preferred directions which are mechanically equivalent and are symmetrically disposed. Secondly, bulging/necking motion in doubly fiber-reinforced incompressible nonlinearly elastic cylindrical shells is captured and we consider two cases for the nature of the anisotropy: (i) reinforcing models that have a particular influence on the shear response of the material and (ii) reinforcing models that depend only on the stretch in the fiber direction. The different instability motions are considered. Axial propagation of the bulging instability mode in thin-walled cylinders under inflation is analyzed. We present the analytical solution for this particular motion as well as for radial expansion during bulging evolution. For illustration, cylinders that are made of either isotropic incompressible non-linearly elastic materials or doubly fiber reinforced incompressible non-linearly elastic materials are considered. Finally, strain-softening constitutive models are considered to analyze two concrete structures: a reinforced concrete beam and an unreinforced notch beam. The bifurcation point is captured using the Riks method used previously to analyze bifurcation of a pressurized cylinder.

Estudio del flujo sanguíneo para diferentes técnicas de implantación de stents en bifurcaciones coronarias

Las enfermedades arteriales vienen presididas por la aterosclerosis, que es un proceso crónico de degeneración, que evoluciona hacia la obstrucción de la luz arterial. La pared de la arteria se engrosa debido al depósito de elementos grasos tales como el colesterol. Los stents intraluminales son diminutas estructuras tubulares autoexpandibles de malla de metal, que se colocan dentro de la arteria coronaria después de una angioplastia con balón para prevenir el cierre de dicha arteria. A pesar de estar diseñados para ser compatibles con el tejido humano, a menudo se da una reacción en cadena de consecuencias indeseables. La reestenosis intra-stent es un problema creciente debido al importante incremento que se ha producido en la utilización del stent intracoronario como forma de revascularización percutánea. Se habla de una incidencia global del 28%, siendo la causa principal de su aparición la proliferación neointimal a través de una compleja cascada de sucesos que pueden tardar meses en desarrollarse. Una de las reacciones más importantes es la trombosis o la formación de una fina capa de coágulo como respuesta a la presencia de un material extraño. Este proceso es multifactorial, y en él intervienen la regresión de la pared como consecuencia del estiramiento previo, la denudación endotelial, lo que permite la agregación plaquetaria, la proliferación neointimal, lo que facilita a los receptores de membrana desencadenar un proceso de agregación posterior y, por último, el remodelado negativo inadecuado de la pared, lo que produce pérdida de luz arterial. Se ha observado frecuentemente que el depósito de ateroma en la pared arterial está relacionado con el valor de los esfuerzos cortantes en la misma. Hay mayores probabilidades de engrosamiento de la pared en las zonas donde son bajos los esfuerzos cortantes, quizá por el mayor tiempo de residencia de las partículas circulantes por el torrente sanguíneo. Si nos centramos en la afirmación anterior, el siguiente paso sería buscar las zonas susceptibles de presentar un valor bajo de dichos esfuerzos. Las zonas potencialmente peligrosas son los codos y bifurcaciones, entre otras. Nos hemos centrado en una bifurcación coronaria, ya que los patrones de flujo que se suelen presentar, tales como recirculación y desprendimiento de vórtices están íntimamente relacionados con las técnicas de implantación de stents en esta zona. Proyectamos nuestros esfuerzos en el estudio de dos técnicas de implante, utilizando un único stent y una tercera a través de una configuración de culotte con el uso de dos stents. El primer caso trata de una bifurcación con un único stent en la rama principal cuyos struts cierran el orificio lateral que da salida a la rama secundaria de la bifurcación, es decir sería un stent sin orificio. El segundo consiste en un único stent también, pero con la diferencia de que éste presenta un orificio de comunicación con la rama lateral. Todas estas técnicas se aplicaron a bifurcaciones de 45º y de 90º. Introdujimos las geometrías -una vez confeccionadas con el código comercial Gambit- en el programa Ansys-Fluent contemplando régimen estacionario. Los resultados obtenidos fueron cotejados con los experimentales, que se realizaron paralelamente, con el fin de corroborarlos. Una vez validados, el estudio computacional ya contó con la fiabilidad suficiente como para abordar el régimen no estacionario, tanto en la versión de reposo como en la de ejercicio –hiperemia- El comportamiento reológico de la sangre para régimen no estacionario en estado de reposo es otra de las tareas abordadas, realizando una comparativa de los modelos Newtoniano, Carreau y Ley de Potencias. Finalmente, en una última etapa, debido a la reciente incursión de los stents diseñados específicamente frente a los convencionales, se aborda el comportamiento hemodinámico de los mismos. Concretamente, se comparó el patrón de flujo en un modelo de bifurcación coronaria con los nuevos stents (Stentys) y los convencionales. Se estudiaron cuatro modelos, a saber, stent simple en la rama principal, stent simple en la rama secundaria, culotte desplegando el primer stent en la rama principal y culotte desplegando el primer stent en la rama secundaria. La bifurcación estudiada presenta un ángulo de apertura de 45º y la relación de diámetros de las ramas hija se ajustaron de acuerdo a la ley de Finet. Se recogieron resultados experimentales en el laboratorio y se corrieron simulaciones numéricas con Ansys Fluent paralelamente. Las magnitudes que se tuvieron en cuenta con el fin de ubicar las regiones potencialmente ateroscleróticas fueron los esfuerzos cortantes, vorticidad y caída de presión. ABSTRACT Nowadays, restenosis after percutaneous dilation is the major drawback of coronary angioplasty. It represents a special form of atherosclerosis due to the healing process secondary to extensive vessel trauma induced after intracoronary balloon inflation. The use of coronary stents may decrease the incidence of this phenomenon. Unfortunately, intra-stent restenosis still occurs in 20-30% of the cases following the stent implantation. Most experiments suggest a correlation between low wall shear stress and wall thickness. The preferential locations for the atherosclerotic plaque are bifurcations. The objective of this work is to analyze the local hemodynamic changes caused in a coronary bifurcation by three different stenting techniques: simple stenting of the main vessel, simple stenting of the main vessel with kissing balloon in the side branch and culotte. To carry out this study an idealized geometry of a coronary bifurcation is used, and two bifurcation angles, 45º and 90º, are chosen as representative of the wide variety of real configurations. Both numerical simulations and experimental measurements are performed. First, steady simulations are carried out with the commercial code Ansys-Fluent, then, experimental measurements with PIV (Particle Image Velocimetry), obtained in the laboratory, are used to validate the numerical simulations. The steady computational simulations show a good overall agreement with the experimental data. Then, pulsatile flow is considered to take into account the transient effects. The time averaged wall shear stress, oscillatory shear index and pressure drop obtained numerically are used to compare the behavior of the stenting techniques. In a second step, the rheologic behavior of blood was considered comparing Newtonian, Carreau and Power Law models. Finally, as a result of previous investigations with conventional stents and after the recent emergence of several devices specifically designed for coronary bifurcations angioplasty, the hemodynamic performance of these new devices (Stentys) was compared to conventional ones and techniques in a coronary bifurcation model. Four different stenting techniques: simple stenting of the main vessel, simple stenting of the side vessel, culotte deploying the first stent in the main vessel and culotte deploying the first stent in the side vessel have been considered. To carry out this study an idealized geometry of a coronary bifurcation is used. A 45 degrees bifurcation angle is considered and the daughter branches diameters are obtained according to the Finet law. Both experiments in the laboratory and numerical simulations were used , focusing on important factors for the atherosclerosis development, like the wall shear stress, the oscillation shear index, the pressure loss and the vorticity.

Evaluación de la distribución de riesgos en los distintos modelos de asociación público-privada para la provisión de infraestructura carretera en México

México es de los pocos países en el mundo que ha realizado dos grandes programas para la construcción de autopistas en colaboración con el sector privado. El primero, fue realizado entre 1989 y 1994, con resultados adversos por el mal diseño del esquema de concesiones; y, el segundo con mejores resultados, en operación desde 2003 mediante nuevos modelos de asociación público-privada (APP). El objetivo de la presente investigación es estudiar los modelos de asociación público-privada empleados en México para la provisión de infraestructura carretera, realizando el análisis y la evaluación de la distribución de riesgos entre el sector público y privado en cada uno de los modelos con el propósito de establecer una propuesta de reasignación de riesgos para disminuir el costo global y la incertidumbre de los proyectos. En la primera parte se describe el estado actual del conocimiento de las asociaciones público-privadas para desarrollar proyectos de infraestructura, incluyendo los antecedentes, la definición y las tipologías de los esquemas APP, así como la práctica internacional de programas como el modelo británico Private Finance Initiative (PFI), resultados de proyectos en la Unión Europea y programas APP en otros países. También, se destaca la participación del sector privado en el financiamiento de la infraestructura del transporte de México en la década de 1990. En los capítulos centrales se aborda el estudio de los modelos APP que se han utilizado en el país en la construcción de la red de carreteras de alta capacidad. Se presentan las características y los resultados del programa de autopistas 1989-94, así como el rescate financiero y las medidas de reestructuración de los proyectos concesionados, aspectos que obligaron a las autoridades mexicanas a cambiar la normatividad para la aprobación de los proyectos según su rentabilidad, modificar la legislación de caminos y diseñar nuevos esquemas de colaboración entre el gobierno y el sector privado. Los nuevos modelos APP vigentes desde 2003 son: nuevo modelo de concesiones para desarrollar autopistas de peaje, modelo de proyectos de prestación de servicios (peaje sombra) para modernizar carreteras existentes y modelo de aprovechamiento de activos para concesionar autopistas de peaje en operación a cambio de un pago. De estos modelos se realizaron estudios de caso en los que se determinan medidas de desempeño operativo (niveles de tráfico, costos y plazos de construcción) y rentabilidad financiera (tasa interna de retorno y valor presente neto). En la última parte se efectúa la identificación, análisis y evaluación de los riesgos que afectaron los costos, el tiempo de ejecución y la rentabilidad de los proyectos de ambos programas. Entre los factores de riesgo analizados se encontró que los más importantes fueron: las condiciones macroeconómicas del país (inflación, producto interno bruto, tipo de cambio y tasa de interés), deficiencias en la planificación de los proyectos (diseño, derecho de vía, tarifas, permisos y estimación del tránsito) y aportaciones públicas en forma de obra. Mexico is one of the few countries in the world that has developed two major programs for highway construction in collaboration with the private sector. The first one was carried out between 1989 and 1994 with adverse outcomes due to the wrong design of concession schemes; and, the second one, in operation since 2003, through new public-private partnership models (PPPs). The objective of this research is to study public-private partnership models used in Mexico for road infrastructure provision, performing the analysis and evaluation of risk’s distribution between the public and the private sector in each model in order to draw up a proposal for risk’s allocation to reduce the total cost and the uncertainty of projects. The first part describes the current state of knowledge in public-private partnership to develop infrastructure projects, including the history, definition and types of PPP models, as well as international practice of programs such as the British Private Finance Initiative (PFI) model, results in the European Union and PPP programs in other countries. Also, it stands out the private sector participation in financing of Mexico’s transport infrastructure in 1990s. The next chapters present the study of public-private partnerships models that have been used in the country in the construction of the high capacity road network. Characteristics and outcomes of the highway program 1989-94 are presented, as well as the financial bailout and restructuring measures of the concession projects, aspects that forced the Mexican authorities to change projects regulations, improve road’s legislation and design new schemes of cooperation between the Government and the private sector. The new PPP models since 2003 are: concession model to develop toll highways, private service contracts model (shadow toll) to modernize existing roads and highway assets model for the concession of toll roads in operation in exchange for a payment. These models were analyzed using case studies in which measures of operational performance (levels of traffic, costs and construction schedules) and financial profitability (internal rate of return and net present value) are determined. In the last part, the analysis and assessment of risks that affect costs, execution time and profitability of the projects are carried out, for both programs. Among the risk factors analyzed, the following ones were found to be the most important: country macroeconomic conditions (inflation, gross domestic product, exchange rate and interest rate), deficiencies in projects planning (design, right of way, tolls, permits and traffic estimation) and public contributions in the form of construction works.

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações

Emergency airway management by intensive care unit nurses with the intubating laryngeal mask airway and the laryngeal tube

When using the laryngeal tube and the intubating laryngeal mask airway (ILMA), the medium-size (maximum volume 1100 ml) versus adult (maximum volume 1500 ml) self-inflating bags resulted in significantly lower lung tidal volumes. No gastric inflation occurred when using both devices with either ventilation bag. The newly developed medium-size self-inflating bag may be an option to further reduce the risk of gastric inflation while maintaining sufficient lung ventilation. Both the ILMA and laryngeal tube proved to be valid alternatives for emergency airway management in the experimental model used.