Saddlepoint approximations to sensitivities of tail probabilities of random sums and comparisons with Monte Carlo estimators

This article proposes computing sensitivities of upper tail probabilities of random sums by the saddlepoint approximation. The considered sensitivity is the derivative of the upper tail probability with respect to the parameter of the summation index distribution. Random sums with Poisson or Geometric distributed summation indices and Gamma or Weibull distributed summands are considered. The score method with importance sampling is considered as an alternative approximation. Numerical studies show that the saddlepoint approximation and the method of score with importance sampling are very accurate. But the saddlepoint approximation is substantially faster than the score method with importance sampling. Thus, the suggested saddlepoint approximation can be conveniently used in various scientific problems.

5-year results comparing mineral trioxide aggregate and adhesive resin composite for root-end sealing in apical surgery

INTRODUCTION Recent meta-analyses of the outcome of apical surgery using modern techniques including microsurgical principles and high-power magnification have yielded higher rates of healing. However, the information is mainly based on 1- to 2-year follow-up data. The present prospective study was designed to re-examine a large sample of teeth treated with apical surgery after 5 years. METHODS Patients were recalled 5 years after apical surgery, and treated teeth were classified as healed or not healed based on clinical and radiographic examination. (The latter was performed independently by 3 observers). Two different methods of root-end preparation and filling (primary study parameters) were to be compared (mineral trioxide aggregate [MTA] vs adhesive resin composite [COMP]) without randomization. RESULTS A total of 271 patients and teeth from a 1-year follow-up sample of 339 could be re-examined after 5 years (dropout rate = 20.1%). The overall rate of healed cases was 84.5% with a significant difference (P = .0003) when comparing MTA (92.5%) and COMP (76.6%). The evaluation of secondary study parameters yielded no significant difference for healing outcome when comparing subcategories (ie, sex, age, type of tooth treated, post/screw, type of surgery). CONCLUSIONS The results from this prospective nonrandomized clinical study with a 5-year follow-up of 271 teeth indicate that MTA exhibited a higher healing rate than COMP in the longitudinal prognosis of root-end sealing.

Minimal intervention dentistry: part 5. Ultra-conservative approach to the treatment of erosive and abrasive lesions.

The therapeutic management of tooth wear lesions does not require the removal of diseased tissue. Nevertheless, diverse etiological factors may be associated with the condition and they could be difficult to eliminate; this has to be considered when planning therapy. Interceptive procedures should be reserved for such situations while regular monitoring is recommended for other cases, in accordance with advice provided for using the Basic Erosive Wear Examination (BEWE). Direct and indirect adhesive procedures with composite resins allow treatment of most clinical situations, including even extensive restorations. The possibility of managing subsequent interventions should be considered when planning the initial therapeutic approach.

Efficient and Robust Host–Guest Antenna Composite for Light Harvesting

We report discovery of a new efficient and robust antenna composite for light harvesting. The organic dye hostasol red (HR) is strongly luminescent in aprotic solvents but only weakly luminescent in potassium zeolite L (ZL) at ambient conditions. We observed a dramatic increase of the luminescence quantum yield of HR–ZL composites if some or all exchangeable potassium cations of ZL are substituted by an organic imidazolium cation (IMZ+) and if the acceptor HR is embedded in the middle part of the channels, so that it is fully protected by the environment of the perylene dye tb-DXP. This led to the discovery of a highly efficient donor,acceptor-ZL antenna material where tb-DXP acts as donor and HR acts as acceptor. The material has a donor-to-acceptor (D/A) absorption ratio of more than 100:1 and a nearly quantitative FRET efficiency. Synthesis of this host–guest material is reported. We describe a successful procedure for achieving full sealing of the ZL channel entrances such that the guests cannot escape. This new material is of great interest for applications in luminescent solar concentrator (LSC) devices because the efficiency killing self-absorption is very low.

Why do adaptable people feel less insecure? Indirect effects of career adaptability on job and career insecurity via two types of perceived marketability

The aim of the present study was to analyze if and how career adaptability reduces different types of insecurity. More specifically, we argue in a theoretical model at the intersection of career and organizational research that perceived internal and external marketability serve as connecting variables in the link between career adaptability and job and career insecurity. We tested our assumptions by means of multiple indirect effects path analyses across two measurement points (6 month timespan) with data from 142 university researchers working in the STEM fields. The results showed that career adaptability was positively related to perceived internal and external marketability, which both subsequently were negatively associated with job and career insecurity. We draw theoretical implications for career research in intra- and extraorganizational settings and discuss practical implications for fostering secure employment.

Social Support at the Workplace, Motivation to Transfer, and Training Transfer: A Multi-Level Indirect Effects Model

Supervisor support, peer support and transfer motivation have been identified as important predictors for training transfer. Transfer motivation is supposed to mediate the support–training transfer relationship. Especially after team training interventions that include all team members (i.e., intact-team training), individual perception of these factors might be shared among team members. However, an integration of the team level in the training transfer process is rare, yet still needed. Analyzing 194 employees from 34 teams in the context of intact-team training interventions, we found similar relationships and processes at both levels of analysis: Social support enhances transfer motivation at the individual and team levels. Furthermore, motivation to transfer increases training transfer and serves as a connecting mechanism in the social support–training transfer link. The results underline the importance of (1) considering multiple levels in theories and research about the training transfer process and (2) ensuring the practice of individual-directed support and a shared, supportive climate within teams.

A high-resolution map of direct and indirect connectivity of erosion risk areas to surface waters in Switzerland: A risk assessment tool for planning and policy-making

Off-site effects of soil erosion are becoming increasingly important, particularly the pollution of surface waters. In order to develop environmentally efficient and cost effective mitigation options it is essential to identify areas that bear both a high erosion risk and high connectivity to surface waters. This paper introduces a simple risk assessment tool that allows the delineation of potential critical source areas (CSA) of sediment input into surface waters concerning the agricultural areas of Switzerland. The basis are the erosion risk map with a 2 m resolution (ERM2) and the drainage network, which is extended by drained roads, farm tracks, and slope depressions. The probability of hydrological and sedimentological connectivity is assessed by combining soil erosion risk and extended drainage network with flow distance calculation. A GIS-environment with multiple-flow accumulation algorithms is used for routing runoff generation and flow pathways. The result is a high resolution connectivity map of the agricultural area of Switzerland (888,050 ha). Fifty-five percent of the computed agricultural area is potentially connected with surface waters, 45% is not connected. Surprisingly, the larger part of 34% (62% of the connected area) is indirectly connected with surface waters through drained roads, and only 21% are directly connected. The reason is the topographic complexity and patchiness of the landscape due to a dense road and drainage network. A total of 24% of the connected area and 13% of the computed agricultural area, respectively, are rated with a high connectivity probability. On these CSA an adapted land use is recommended, supported by vegetated buffer strips preventing sediment load. Even areas that are far away from open water bodies can be indirectly connected and need to be included in planning of mitigation measures. Thus, the connectivity map presented is an important decision-making tool for policy-makers and extension services. The map is published on the web and thus available for application.

Direct and indirect effects of invasion by the alien tree Ailanthus altissima on riparian plant communities and ecosystem multifunctionality

Most existing studies addressing the effects of invasive species on biodiversity focus on species richness ignoring better indicators of biodiversity and better predictors of ecosystem functioning such as the diversity of evolutionary histories (phylodiversity). Moreover, no previous study has separated the direct effect of alien plants on multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously (multifunctionality) from those indirect ones mediated by the decrease on biodiversity caused by alien plants. We aimed to analyze direct and indirect effects, mediated or not by its effect on biodiversity, of the invasive tree Ailanthus altissima on ecosystem multifunctionality of riparian habitats under Mediterranean climate. We measured vegetation attributes (species richness and phylodiversity) and several surrogates of ecosystem functioning (understory plant biomass, soil enzyme activities, available phosphorous and organic matter) in plots infested by A. altissima and in control (non-invaded) ones. We used structural equation modelling to tease apart the direct and indirect effects of A. altissima on ecosystem multifunctionality. Our results suggest that lower plant species richness, phylodiversity and multifunctionality were associated to the presence of A. altissima. When analyzing each function separately, we found that biodiversity has the opposite effect of the alien plant on all the different functions measured, therefore reducing the strength of the effect (either positive or negative) of A. altissima on them. This is one of the few existing studies addressing the effect of invasive species on phylodiversity and also studying the effect of invasive species on multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously.