Using Coxian Phase-Type Distributions to Identify Patient Characteristics for Duration of Stay in Hospital

Coxian phase-type distributions are a special type of Markov model that describes duration until an event occurs in terms of a process consisting of a sequence of latent phases. This paper considers the use of Coxian phase-type distributions for modelling patient duration of stay for the elderly in hospital and investigates the potential for using the resulting distribution as a classifying variable to identify common characteristics between different groups of patients according to their (anticipated) length of stay in hospital. The identification of common characteristics for patient length of stay groups would offer hospital managers and clinicians possible insights into the overall management and bed allocation of the hospital wards.

Effect of tailored practice and patient care plans on secondary prevention of heart disease in general practice: cluster randomised controlled trial

Objective: To test the effectiveness of a complex intervention designed, within a theoretical framework, to improve outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease. Design: Cluster randomised controlled multicentre trial. Setting: General practices in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, regions with different healthcare systems. Participants: 903 patients with established coronary heart disease registered with one of 48 practices. Intervention: Tailored care plans for practices (practice based training in prescribing and behaviour change, administrative support, quarterly newsletter), and tailored care plans for patients (motivational interviewing, goal identification, and target setting for lifestyle change) with reviews every four months at the practices. Control practices provided usual care. Main outcome measures: The proportion of patients at 18 month follow-up above target levels for blood pressure and total cholesterol concentration, and those admitted to hospital, and changes in physical and mental health status (SF-12). Results: At baseline the numbers (proportions) of patients above the recommended limits were: systolic blood pressure greater than 140 mm Hg (305/899; 33.9%, 95% confidence interval 30.8% to 33.9%), diastolic blood pressure greater than 90 mm Hg (111/901; 12.3%, 10.2% to 14.5%), and total cholesterol concentration greater than 5 mmol/l (188/860; 20.8%, 19.1% to 24.6%). At the 18 month follow-up there were no significant differences between intervention and control groups in the numbers (proportions) of patients above the recommended limits: systolic blood pressure, intervention 98/360 (27.2%) v control, 133/405 (32.8%), odds ratio 1.51 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 2.30; P=0.06); diastolic blood pressure, intervention 32/360 (8.9%) v control, 40/405 (9.9%), 1.40 (0.75 to 2.64; P=0.29); and total cholesterol concentration, intervention 52/342 (15.2%) v control, 64/391 (16.4%), 1.13 (0.63 to 2.03; P=0.65). The number of patients admitted to hospital over the 18 month study period significantly decreased in the intervention group compared with the control group: 107/415 (25.8%) v 148/435 (34.0%), 1.56 (1.53 to 2.60; P=0.03). Conclusions: Admissions to hospital were significantly reduced after an intensive 18 month intervention to improve outcomes for patients with coronary heart disease, but no other clinical benefits were shown, possibly because of a ceiling effect related to improved management of the disease. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN24081411.

The Impact of Admissions for the Management of End-stage renal disease on hospital bed occupancy

BACKGROUND:

End-stage renal disease (ESRD) is increasingly prevalent but the inpatient costs associated with this condition are poorly defined due to limitations with data extraction and failure to differentiate between hospitalisation for renal and non-renal disease reasons. The impact of admissions primarily for the management of ESRD on hospital bed utilisation was assessed over a 5-year period in a large teaching hospital.

METHODS:

All admission episodes were reviewed and the ESRD group was identified by a primary International Classification of Diseases code for ESRD or a non-specific primary renal failure code with a secondary code for ESRD. The frequency and duration of hospitalisation and contribution to bed day occupancy of this group with ESRD was determined.

RESULTS:

There were 70,808 patients responsible for a total of 116,915 admissions and 919,212 bed days over the study period. Of these, 988 (1.4%) patients were admitted for the management of ESRD, accounting for 2,387 (2.0%) of admissions and utilisation of 23,011 (2.5%) bed days. After adjustment for age and gender, those admitted for ESRD management were significantly more likely to have a prolonged admission exceeding 30 days (odds ratio 1.46, 95% confidence interval 1.23-1.72, p < 0.001). When the admission was an emergency rather than an elective event, the patient was 4.6 times more likely to be hospitalised for over 30 days.

CONCLUSIONS:

Persons admitted for ESRD management are hospitalised more frequently and for longer than the overall inpatient population, occupying a substantial number of bed days.

Modelling the impact of antibiotic use and infection control practices on the incidence of hospital-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: a time-series analysis

Objectives: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major nosocomial pathogen worldwide. A wide range of factors have been suggested to influence the spread of MRSA. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of antimicrobial drug use and infection control practices on nosocomial MRSA incidence in a 426-bed general teaching hospital in Northern Ireland.

Methods: The present research involved the retrospective collection of monthly data on the usage of antibiotics and on infection control practices within the hospital over a 5 year period (January 2000–December 2004). A multivariate ARIMA (time-series analysis) model was built to relate MRSA incidence with antibiotic use and infection control practices.

Results: Analysis of the 5 year data set showed that temporal variations in MRSA incidence followed temporal variations in the use of fluoroquinolones, third-generation cephalosporins, macrolides and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid (coefficients = 0.005, 0.03, 0.002 and 0.003, respectively, with various time lags). Temporal relationships were also observed between MRSA incidence and infection control practices, i.e. the number of patients actively screened for MRSA (coefficient = -0.007), the use of alcohol-impregnated wipes (coefficient = -0.0003) and the bulk orders of alcohol-based handrub (coefficients = -0.04 and -0.08), with increased infection control activity being associated with decreased MRSA incidence, and between MRSA incidence and the number of new patients admitted with MRSA (coefficient = 0.22). The model explained 78.4% of the variance in the monthly incidence of MRSA.

Conclusions: The results of this study confirm the value of infection control policies as well as suggest the usefulness of restricting the use of certain antimicrobial classes to control MRSA.

Cardiac rehabilitation uptake following myocardial infarction: cross-sectional study in primary care

Background Policies suggest that primary care should be more involved in delivering cardiac rehabilitation. However, there is a lack of information about what is known in primary care regarding patients' invitation or attendance. Aim To determine, within primary care, how many patients are invited to and attend rehabilitation after myocardial infarction (MI), examine sociodemographic factors related to invitation, and compare quality of life between those who do and do not attend. Design of study Review of primary care paper and computer records; cross-sectional questionnaire. Setting Northern Ireland general practices (38); stratified sample, based on practice size and health board area. Method Patients, identified from primary care records, 12-16?weeks after a confirmed diagnosis of MI, were posted questionnaires, including a validated MacNew post-MI quality-of-life questionnaire. Practices returned anonymised data for non-responders. Results Information about rehabilitation was available for 332 of the 432 patients identified (76.9%): 162 (37.5%) returned questionnaires. Of the total sample, 54.4% (235/432) were invited and 37.0% (160/432) attended; of those invited, 68.1% (160/235) attended. Invited patients were younger than those not invited (mean age 63?years [standard deviation SD 16] versus 68.5?years [SD 16]); mean difference 5.5?years (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.7 to 9.3). Among questionnaire responders, those who attended were younger and reported better emotional, physical, and social functioning than non-attenders (P = 0.01; mean differences 0.44 (95% CI = 0.11 to 0.77), 0.48 (95% CI = 0.10 to 0.85) and 0.54 (95% CI = 0.15 to 0.94) respectively). Conclusion Innovative strategies are needed to improve cardiac rehabilitation uptake, integration of hospital and primary care services, and healthcare professionals' awareness of patients' potential for health gain after MI.

Cluster randomised controlled trial of an infection control education and training intervention programme focusing on meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in nursing homes for older people

The aim of this cluster randomised controlled trial was to test the impact of an infection control education and training programme on meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) prevalence in nursing homes. Nursing homes were randomised to intervention (infection control education and training programme; N¼16) or control (usual practice continued; N¼16). Staff in intervention homes were educated and trained (0, 3 and 6 months) in the principles and implementation of good infection control practice with infection control audits conducted in all sites (0, 3, 6 and 12 months) to assess compliance with good practice. Audit scores were fed back to nursing home managers in intervention homes, together with a written report indicating where practice could be improved. Nasal swabs were taken from all consenting residents and staff at 0, 3, 6 and 12 months. The primary outcome was MRSA prevalence in residents and staff, and the secondary outcome was a change in infection control audit scores. In all, 793 residents and 338 staff were recruited at baseline. MRSA prevalence did not change during the study in residents or staff. The relative risk of a resident being colonised with MRSA in an intervention home compared with a control home at 12 months was 0.99 (95% con?dence interval: 0.69, 1.42) after adjustment for clustering. Mean infection control audit scores were signi?cantly higher in the intervention homes (82%) compared with the control homes (64%) at 12 months (P<0.0001). Consideration should be given to other approaches which may help to reduce MRSA in this setting.

Costing the hospital-based process of resettling people with learning disability in the community

Objectives: Much has been written about the costs and cost-effectiveness of community care for people with learning disabilities resettled from long stay hospital care. However, comparatively little has been published about the cost of hospital services relating to the preparatory process before eventual resettlement and the disengagement of formal, sustained input from hospital staff. This study describes and costs the input provided by a hospital based multi-disciplinary team into the resettlement of adults with learning disabilities, from long stay wards in Muckamore Abbey Hospital in Northern Ireland between 1996 and 1999 (n = 71).