Incorporating Higher Moments into Value at Risk Forecasting

Value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting generally relies on a parametric density function of portfolio returns that ignores higher moments or assumes them constant. In this paper, we propose a simple approach to forecasting of a portfolio VaR. We employ the Gram-Charlier expansion (GCE) augmenting the standard normal distribution with the first four moments, which are allowed to vary over time. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the GCE approach to other models of VaR forecasting and conclude that it provides accurate and robust estimates of the realized VaR. In spite of its simplicity, on our dataset GCE outperforms other estimates that are generated by both constant and time-varying higher-moments models.

Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

In this article, we extend the earlier work of Freeland and McCabe [Journal of time Series Analysis (2004) Vol. 25, pp. 701–722] and develop a general framework for maximum likelihood (ML) analysis of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes. Our exposition includes the case where the innovation sequence has a Poisson distribution and the thinning is binomial. A recursive representation of the transition probability of the model is proposed. Based on this transition probability, we derive expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix, which form the basis for ML estimation and inference. Similar to the results in Freeland and McCabe (2004), we show that the score function and the Fisher information matrix can be neatly represented as conditional expectations. Using the INAR(2) speci?cation with binomial thinning and Poisson innovations, we examine both the asymptotic e?ciency and ?nite sample properties of the ML estimator in relation to the widely used conditional least
squares (CLS) and Yule–Walker (YW) estimators. We conclude that, if the Poisson assumption can be justi?ed, there are substantial gains to be had from using ML especially when the thinning parameters are large.

Maximum likelihood estimation of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes

Corrigendum Vol. 30, Issue 2, 259, Article first published online: 15 MAR 2009 to correct the order of authors names: Bu R., K. Hadri, and B. McCabe.

Higher-order effects and ultrashort solitons in left-handed metamaterials

Starting from Maxwell's equations, we use the reductive perturbation method to derive a second-order and a third-order nonlinear Schrodinger equation, describing ultrashort solitons in nonlinear left-handed metamaterials. We find necessary conditions and derive exact bright and dark soliton solutions of these equations for the electric and magnetic field envelopes.

Teaching and learning technologies in Higher Education: Applied behaviour analysis and autism.

Professionals on both international and national levels who work with children with autism are expressing the need for graduate-level training in applied behaviour analysis. The implementation of effective instruction in higher education for professionals working with children with autism and their families is a complex undertaking: the learner needs to acquire an understanding of the principles and procedures of applied behaviour analysis and also adapt this knowledge to the learning prerequisites of individuals with autism. In this paper we outline some current thinking about adult education and blended learning technologies and then describe and illustrate with examples emerging possibilities of multimedia technology in the development of teaching materials. We conclude that synergies between graduate-level curriculum requirements, knowledge of adult learning, and communication technology are necessary to establish comprehensive learning environments for professionals who specialize in autism intervention.