984 resultados para forecast deviation
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Background/Introduction: ln Switzerland, most trends in overweight and obesity levels have been assessed using reported data, a methodology which is prone to reporting bias. ln this study, we aimed at assessing trends in overweight and obesity levels using objectively measured data. Methods: We used independent cross-sectional data collected between 2005 and 2011 by the Bus Santé study on representative samples of the Geneva population. Trends were assessed overall and according to different characteristics of the participants. Overweight and obesity were defined as a body mass index (BMI) between 25 and 29.9 kg/m2 and >=30 kg/m2, respectively. Results: Data from 4093 participants (2012 men) was assessed. Mean BMI was 25.2 ± 4.3 kg/m2 (mean ±standard deviation) in 2005 and 25.4 ± 4.3 in 2011 (p for trend using linear regression=0.98). For men, mean BMI was 26.3 ± 3.8 kg/m2 in 2005 and 26.1 ± 3.7 in 2011 (p for trend=0.37); for women, the corresponding values were 24.3 ± 4.6 and 24.7 ± 4.7 kg/m2 (p for trend=0.42). Overall prevalence of overweight and obesity was 32.2% and 13.3%, respectively, in 2005 and 33.6% and 13.7% in 2011 (p for trend using polytomous logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and smoking=0.49 and 0.94 for overweight and obesity, respectively). For men, prevalence of overweight and obesity was 45.9% and 12.2% in 2005 and 42.1 % and 14.6% in 2011 (P for trend=0.03 for overweight and 0.81 for obesity); for women, the corresponding values were 20.4% and 14.2% in 2005 and 25.4% and 12.9% in 2011 (p for trend=0.13 for overweight and 0.99 for obesity). Conclusion: Overweight and obesity levels appear to have levelled in Geneva, with a possible decrease in overweight levels in men. These favorable findings should be replicated in other geographical locations.
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En l'actualitat les xarxes de comunicacions són bàsicament digitals; el camí que s'ha avançat en els darrers quaranta anys ha estat molt llarg, amb un desenvolupament tan ràpid que ha fet que qualsevol previsió quedés molt endarrerida abans d'hora (o que de vegades se sobreestimés aquest desenvolupament, com va passar amb el
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This tool contains the data for the LHO briefing "The London Health Inequalities Forecast: A briefing on inequalities in life expectancy and deaths from cancers, heart disease and stroke in London". The tool enables local areas to monitor their progress towards the national health inequalities targets for life expectancy, mortality from heart disease and stroke, and mortality from cancers.
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We found that lumbar spine texture analysis using trabecular bone score (TBS) is a risk factor for MOF and a risk factor for death in a retrospective cohort study from a large clinical registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada. INTRODUCTION: FRAX® estimates the 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) using clinical risk factors and femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). Trabecular bone score (TBS), derived from texture in the spine dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) image, is related to bone microarchitecture and fracture risk independently of BMD. Our objective was to determine whether TBS provides information on MOF probability beyond that provided by the FRAX variables. METHODS: We included 33,352 women aged 40-100 years (mean 63 years) with baseline DXA measurements of lumbar spine TBS and femoral neck BMD. The association between TBS, the FRAX variables, and the risk of MOF or death was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: During the mean of 4.7 years, 1,754 women died and 1,872 sustained one or more MOF. For each standard deviation reduction in TBS, there was a 36 % increase in MOF risk (HR 1.36, 95 % CI 1.30-1.42, p < 0.001) and a 32 % increase in death (HR 1.32, 95 % CI 1.26-1.39, p < 0.001). When adjusted for significant clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD, lumbar spine TBS was still a significant predictor of MOF (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.12-1.23) and death (HR 1.20, 95 % CI 1.14-1.26). Models for estimating MOF probability, accounting for competing mortality, showed that low TBS (10th percentile) increased risk by 1.5-1.6-fold compared with high TBS (90th percentile) across a broad range of ages and femoral neck T-scores. CONCLUSIONS: Lumbar spine TBS is able to predict incident MOF independent of FRAX clinical risk factors and femoral neck BMD even after accounting for the increased death hazard.
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The population genetic structure of Anopheles darlingi, the major human malaria vector in the Neotropics, was examined using seven microsatellite loci from nine localities in central and western Amazonian Brazil. High levels of genetic variability were detected (5-25 alleles per locus; H E = 0.519-0.949). There was deviation from Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium for 59.79% of the tests due to heterozygote deficits, while the analysis of linkage disequilibrium was significant for only two of 189 (1.05%) tests, most likely caused by null alleles. Genetic differentiation (F ST = 0.001-0.095; Nm = 4.7-363.8) indicates that gene flow is extensive among locations < 152 km apart (with two exceptions) and reduced, but not absent, at a larger geographic scale. Genetic and geographic distances were significantly correlated (R² = 0.893, P < 0.0002), supporting the isolation by distance (IBD) model. The overall estimate of Ne was 202.4 individuals under the linkage disequilibrium model, and 8 under the heterozygote excess model. Analysis of molecular variance showed that nearly all variation (~ 94%) was within sample locations. The UPGMA phenogram clustered the samples geographically, with one branch including 5/6 of the state of Amazonas localities and the other branch the Acre, Rondônia, and remaining Amazonas localities. Taken together, these data suggest little genetic structure for An. darlingi from central and western Amazonian Brazil. These findings also imply that the IBD model explains nearly all of the differentiation detected. In practical terms, populations of An. darlingi at distances < 152 km should respond similarly to vector control measures, because of high gene flow.
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Durant la dernière dictature argentine (1976-1983), !a junte militaire organisa le vol de nourrissons, enfants de leurs ennemis, pour qu'ils puissent être élevés dans des familles proches du pouvoir. L'association « Grands-Mères de la Place de Mai » comptabilisa environ 409 vols. Au moment de l'exploration du terrain de récherche, en 2004, une quarantaine avaient été retrouvés dans des familles qui ne connaissaient pas leurs origines tandis qu'une vingtaine étaient dans des familles liées à la junte ; c'est à cette dernière catégorie que s'intéresse ce travail. Durant leur enfance ou à l'âge adulte, ces enfants apprirent un jour la vérité sur leurs origines biologiques et la justice la leur restitua ; c'est pourquoi ils sont dits « restitués ». Cette contribution vise à interroger l'identité individuelle comme une dynamique intime qui s'articule à la filiation et s'insère dans une collectivité, une société. Trois hypothèses l'ont organisée : une première concerne la connaissance des origines biologiques et ses conséquences psychologiques identitaires, qui passe nécessairement par la justice et la société. Une deuxième hypothèse explore les éventelles conséquences traumatiques de l'enlèvement des personnes restituées et de la restitution. Enfin, la troisième hypothèse interroge le rapport de la construction identitaire à la société, qu'elle se fasse par des investissements politiques et associatifs ou par les médias et l'Histoire. Ces hypothèses nourrissent un questionnement sur les liens entre restitution et travail de symbolisation des origines. Sept entretiens semi structurés avec des personnes restituées ont. été menés puis qualitativement analysés dans une perspective que l'on peut référer, de manière large, à une « anthropologique clinique », au croisement d'une psychologie clinique éclairée par la psychanalyse et de l'anthropologie. Au travers d'une analyse approfondie de leur parcours identitaire des personnes enlevées, adoptées et restituées, ce travail se livre à une recherche empirique sur la construction identitaire. Le concept de transmission se trouve mobilisé, qui concerne l'inscription de l'individu dans la subjectivité d'un couple avec le prénom, dans une lignée ou dans un collectif avec le choix professionnel ou les liens avec l'association « Grands-Mères de la Place Mai ». De plus, la thèse apporte une contribution à la compréhension des enjeux du clivage, des blessures primitive et narcissique, des processus d'affiliation et des secrets de famille et propose également de penser, en prolongement, les enjeux de la « défiliation » et de I'« amalgame ». La question du traumatisme, de sa répétition et de son élaboration, ainsi que celle des facteurs de resilience sont également discutées. Ce travail ouvre sur une réflexion plus large du concept d'identité. - During the last dictatorship in Argentina (1976-1983), the military junta organized the kidnapping of infants - children of its enemies - in order to raise them in families close to the authorities. The association "Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo" estimates that approximately 400 children have been kidnapped in this way. During their childhood, or as adults, they have come to learn the truth about their biological origins, restituted to them by justice: They are therefore known as "restituted" children. At the time of the field research in 2004, around 40 children had been found in families unaware of their origins. About 20 other came from families close to the junta. The present work is particularly interested in the latter category. This contribution investigates the individual identity as an intimate dynamics by examining its articulation with filiation and its insertion within a community, a society. It revolves around three hypotheses: the first concerns the knowledge - necessarily transmitted through justice and society - of biological origins and its psychological consequences on the identity. The second explores the eventually traumatic, consequences of kidnapping and restitution among the restituted persons. Finally, the third hypothesis questions the relation between identity construction and society, whether it is made through political and associative involvements, media or History. These hypotheses lead to the examination of affiliations between restitution and symbolization process of the origins. Seven semi-structured interviews with restituted persons have been conducted and qualitatively analyzed in a perspective that can, in a large sense, be referred to as "clinical anthropology": an approach/intersection between clinical psychology, psychoanalysis and anthropology. Through an in-depth analysis of the identity itinerary of the kidnapped, adopted and restituted persons, this work is conducted as an empirical research on identity construction. For that purpose, it uses the concept of transmission to describe an individual's affiliation with the subjectivity of a couple through the first name, with a lineage or a community through professional choices or through his/her connections with the association "Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo". Further, it makes a meaningful contribution to the understanding and implications of the notions of cleavage, of primal and narcissistic wounds, of processes of affiliation and of family secrets. In addition, it also proposes a reflection on and the implication of the notions of "deviation" and "amalgam". The question of trauma, its repetition and elaboration, and of resilience factors are aiso being discussed. This work concludes with results in a iarger consideration of the concept of identity.
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3-M syndrome is a rare autosomal recessive disorder that causes short stature, unusual facial features and skeletal abnormalities. Mutations in the CUL7, OBSL1 and CCDC8 genes could be responsible for 3-M syndrome.Here we describe the growth and evolution of dismorphic features of an Italian boy with 3-M syndrome and growth hormone deficiency (GHD) from birth until adulthood. He was born full term with a very low birth weight (2400 g=-3.36 standard deviation score, SDS) and length (40.0 cm =-6.53 SDS). At birth he presented with a broad, fleshy nose with anteverted nostrils, thick and patulous lips, a square chin, curvilinear shaped eyebrows without synophrys, short thorax and long slender bones. Then, during childhood tall vertebral bodies, hip dislocation, transverse chest groove, winged scapulae and hyperextensible joints became more evident and the diagnosis of 3-M syndrome was made; this was also confirmed by the finding of a homozygous deletion in exon 18 of the CUL7 gene, which has not been previously described.The patient also exhibited severe GHD (GH <5 ng/ml) and from the age of 18 months was treated with rhGH. Notwithstanding the early start of therapy and good compliance, his growth rate was always very low, except for the first two years of treatment and he achieved a final height of 132 cm (-6.42 SDS).
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Sequence variation among different hepatitis C virus (HCV) isolates has adaptive significance and reflects the modes and intensities of selection mechanisms operating on the virus. In this work, we sought to investigate using classical population genetics parameters, the genetic variability of HCV genotype 1 using the 5' UTR and NS5A regions from treatment non-responding and responding groups of patients. Both regions showed low genetic varia-bility and the 5' UTR showed neutral deviation. No differences were observed in the nonsynonymous/synonymous nucleotide substitution ratio among groups for NS5A. The analysis of molecular variance test of the 5' UTR region showed an 11.94% variation among groups. Phylogenetic analysis showed no correlation between sequence variations and therapeutic responses.
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Our objective was to establish the age-related 3D size of maxillary, sphenoid, and frontal sinuses. A total of 179 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of children under 17 years (76 females, 103 males) were included and sinuses were measured in the three axes. Maxillary sinuses measured at birth (mean+/-standard deviation) 7.3+/-2.7 mm length (or antero-posterior)/4.0+/-0.9 mm height (or cranio-caudal)/2.7+/-0.8 mm width (or transverse). At 16 years old, maxillary sinus measured 38.8+/-3.5 mm/36.3+/-6.2 mm/27.5+/-4.2 mm. Sphenoid sinus pneumatization starts in the third year of life after conversion from red to fatty marrow with mean values of 5.8+/-1.4 mm/8.0+/-2.3 mm/5.8+/-1.0 mm. Pneumatization progresses gradually to reach at 16 years 23.0+/-4.5 mm/22.6+/-5.8 mm/12.8+/-3.1 mm. Frontal sinuses present a wide variation in size and most of the time are not valuable with routine head MRI techniques. They are not aerated before the age of 6 years. Frontal sinuses dimensions at 16 years were 12.8+/-5.0 mm/21.9+/-8.4 mm/24.5+/-13.3 mm. A sinus volume index (SVI) of maxillary and sphenoid sinus was computed using a simplified ellipsoid volume formula, and a table with SVI according to age with percentile variations is proposed for easy clinical application. Percentile curves of maxillary and sphenoid sinuses are presented to provide a basis for objective determination of sinus size and volume during development. These data are applicable to other techniques such as conventional X-ray and CT scan.
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A solution of (18)F was standardised with a 4pibeta-4pigamma coincidence counting system in which the beta detector is a one-inch diameter cylindrical UPS89 plastic scintillator, positioned at the bottom of a well-type 5''x5'' NaI(Tl) gamma-ray detector. Almost full detection efficiency-which was varied downwards electronically-was achieved in the beta-channel. Aliquots of this (18)F solution were also measured using 4pigamma NaI(Tl) integral counting and Monte Carlo calculated efficiencies as well as the CIEMAT-NIST method. Secondary measurements of the same solution were also performed with an IG11 ionisation chamber whose equivalent activity is traceable to the Système International de Référence through the contribution IRA-METAS made to it in 2001; IRA's degree of equivalence was found to be close to the key comparison reference value (KCRV). The (18)F activity predicted by this coincidence system agrees closely with the ionisation chamber measurement and is compatible within one standard deviation of the other primary measurements. This work demonstrates that our new coincidence system can standardise short-lived radionuclides used in nuclear medicine.
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Objective: To determine the values of, and study the relationships among, central corneal thickness (CCT), intraocular pressure (IOP), and degree of myopia (DM) in an adult myopic population aged 20 to 40 years in Almeria (southeast Spain). To our knowledge this is first study of this kind in this region. Methods: An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study was done in which a sample of 310 myopic patients (620 eyes) aged 20 to 40 years was selected by gender- and age-stratified sampling, which was proportionally fixed to the size of the population strata for which a 20% prevalence of myopia, 5% epsilon, and a 95% confidence interval were hypothesized. We studied IOP, CCT, and DM and their relationships by calculating the mean, standard deviation, 95% confidence interval for the mean, median, Fisher’s asymmetry coefficient, range (maximum, minimum), and the Brown-Forsythe’s robust test for each variable (IOP, CCT, and DM). Results: In the adult myopic population of Almeria aged 20 to 40 years (mean of 29.8), the mean overall CCT was 550.12 μm. The corneas of men were thicker than those of women (P = 0.014). CCT was stable as no significant differences were seen in the 20- to 40-year-old subjects’ CCT values. The mean overall IOP was 13.60 mmHg. Men had a higher IOP than women (P = 0.002). Subjects over 30 years (13.83) had a higher IOP than those under 30 (13.38) (P = 0.04). The mean overall DM was −4.18 diopters. Men had less myopia than women (P < 0.001). Myopia was stable in the 20- to 40-year-old study population (P = 0.089). A linear relationship was found between CCT and IOP (R2 = 0.152, P ≤ 0.001). CCT influenced the IOP value by 15.2%. However no linear relationship between DM and IOP, or between CCT and DM, was found. Conclusions: CCT was found to be similar to that reported in other studies in different populations. IOP tends to increase after the age of 30 and is not accounted for by alterations in CCT values.
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Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan
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BACKGROUND: The Multiple Sclerosis International Quality Of Life (MusiQoL) questionnaire, a 31-item, multidimensional, self-administrated questionnaire that is available in 14 languages including Spanish, has been validated using a large international sample. We investigated the validity and reliability of the Spanish version of MusiQoL in Spain. METHODS: Consecutive patients with different types and severities of multiple sclerosis (MS) were recruited from 22 centres across Spain. All patients completed the MusiQoL questionnaire, the 36-Item Short Form (SF-36) health survey, and a symptoms checklist at baseline and 21 days later. External validity, internal consistency, reliability and reproducibility were tested. RESULTS: A total of 224 Spanish patients were evaluated. Dimensions of MusiQoL generally demonstrated a high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha: 0.70-0.92 for all but two MusiQoL domain scores). External validity testing revealed that the MusiQoL index score correlated significantly with all SF-36 dimension scores (Pearson's correlation: 0.46-0.76), reproducibility was satisfactory (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.60-0.91), acceptability was high, and the time taken to complete the 31-item questionnaire was reasonable (mean [standard deviation]: 9.8 [11.8] minutes). CONCLUSIONS: The Spanish version of the MusiQoL questionnaire appears to be a valid and reliable instrument for measuring quality of life in patients with MS in Spain and constitutes a useful instrument to measure health-related quality of life in the clinical setting.
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BACKGROUND. Total knee (TKR) and hip (THR) replacement (arthroplasty) are effective surgical procedures that relieve pain, improve patients' quality of life and increase functional capacity. Studies on variations in medical practice usually place the indications for performing these procedures to be highly variable, because surgeons appear to follow different criteria when recommending surgery in patients with different severity levels. We therefore proposed a study to evaluate inter-hospital variability in arthroplasty indication. METHODS. The pre-surgical condition of 1603 patients included was compared by their personal characteristics, clinical situation and self-perceived health status. Patients were asked to complete two health-related quality of life questionnaires: the generic SF-12 (Short Form) and the specific WOMAC (Western Ontario and Mcmaster Universities) scale. The type of patient undergoing primary arthroplasty was similar in the 15 different hospitals evaluated.The variability in baseline WOMAC score between hospitals in THR and TKR indication was described by range, mean and standard deviation (SD), mean and standard deviation weighted by the number of procedures at each hospital, high/low ratio or extremal quotient (EQ5-95), variation coefficient (CV5-95) and weighted variation coefficient (WCV5-95) for 5-95 percentile range. The variability in subjective and objective signs was evaluated using median, range and WCV5-95. The appropriateness of the procedures performed was calculated using a specific threshold proposed by Quintana et al for assessing pain and functional capacity. RESULTS. The variability expressed as WCV5-95 was very low, between 0.05 and 0.11 for all three dimensions on WOMAC scale for both types of procedure in all participating hospitals. The variability in the physical and mental SF-12 components was very low for both types of procedure (0.08 and 0.07 for hip and 0.03 and 0.07 for knee surgery patients). However, a moderate-high variability was detected in subjective-objective signs. Among all the surgeries performed, approximately a quarter of them could be considered to be inappropriate. CONCLUSIONS. A greater inter-hospital variability was observed for objective than for subjective signs for both procedures, suggesting that the differences in clinical criteria followed by surgeons when indicating arthroplasty are the main responsible factors for the variation in surgery rates.
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Objective: Status epilepticus (SE) prognosis, is mostly related to non-modifiable factors (especially age, etiology), but the specific role of treatment appropriateness (TA) has not been investigated. Methods: In a prospective cohort with incident SE (excluding postanoxic), TA was defined, after recent European recommendations, in terms of drug dosage (630% deviation) and sequence. Outcome at hospital discharge was categorized into mortality, new handicap, or return to baseline. Results: Among 225 adults, treatment was inappropriate in 37%. In univariate analyses, age, etiology, SE severity and comorbidity, but not TA, were significantly related to outcome. Etiology (95% CI 4.3-82.8) and SE severity (95% CI 1.2-2.4) were independent predictors of mortality, and of lack of return to baseline conditions (etiology: 95% CI 3.9-14.0; SE severity: 95% CI 1.4-2.2). Moreover, TA did not improve outcome prediction in the corresponding ROC curves. Conclusions: This large analysis suggests that TA plays a negligible prognostic role in SE, probably reflecting the outstanding importance of the biological background. Awaiting treatment trials in SE, it appears questionable to apply further resources in refining treatment protocols involving existing compounds; rather, new therapeutic approaches should be identified and tested.