Rationale and first results of developing at-risk (prodromal) criteria for bipolar disorder

Bipolar affective disorder (BD) is a severe, recurrent and disabling disorder with devastating consequences for individuals, families and society. Although these hazards and costs provide a compelling rationale for development of early detection and early intervention strategies in BD, the development of at-risk criteria for first episode mania is still in an early stage of development. In this paper we review the literature with respect to the clinical, neuroantomical and neuropsychological data, which support this goal. We also describe our recently developed bipolar at-risk criteria (BAR). This criteria comprises the peak age range of the first onset of bipolar disorder, genetic risk, presenting with sub-threshold mania, cyclothymic features or depressive symptoms. An initial pilot evaluation of the BAR criteria in 22 subjects indicated conversion rates to proxies of first-episode mania of 23% within 265 days on average, and high specificity and sensitivity of the criteria. If prospective studies confirm the validity of the BAR criteria, then the criteria would have the potential to open up new avenues of research for indicated prevention in BD and might therefore offer opportunities to ameliorate the severity of, or even prevent BD.

A survey of MRI-based medical image analysis for brain tumor studies

MRI-based medical image analysis for brain tumor studies is gaining attention in recent times due to an increased need for efficient and objective evaluation of large amounts of data. While the pioneering approaches applying automated methods for the analysis of brain tumor images date back almost two decades, the current methods are becoming more mature and coming closer to routine clinical application. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview by giving a brief introduction to brain tumors and imaging of brain tumors first. Then, we review the state of the art in segmentation, registration and modeling related to tumor-bearing brain images with a focus on gliomas. The objective in the segmentation is outlining the tumor including its sub-compartments and surrounding tissues, while the main challenge in registration and modeling is the handling of morphological changes caused by the tumor. The qualities of different approaches are discussed with a focus on methods that can be applied on standard clinical imaging protocols. Finally, a critical assessment of the current state is performed and future developments and trends are addressed, giving special attention to recent developments in radiological tumor assessment guidelines.

Does delaying the first mowing date benefit biodiversity in meadowland?

Background Meadows are regularly mown in order to provide fodder or litter for livestock and to prevent vegetation succession. However, the time of year at which meadows should be first mown in order to maximize biological diversity remains controversial and may vary with respect to context and focal taxa. We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis on the effects of delaying the first mowing date upon plants and invertebrates in European meadowlands. Methods Following a CEE protocol, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, JSTOR, Google and Google Scholar were searched. We recorded all studies that compared the species richness of plants, or the species richness or abundance of invertebrates, between grassland plots mown at a postponed date (treatment) vs plots mown earlier (control). In order to be included in the meta-analysis, compared plots had to be similar in all management respects, except the date of the first cut that was (mostly experimentally) manipulated. They were also to be located in the same meadow type. Meta-analyses applying Hedges’d statistic were performed. Results Plant species richness responded differently to the date to which mowing was postponed. Delaying mowing from spring to summer had a positive effect, while delaying either from spring to fall, or from early summer to later in the season had a negative effect. Invertebrates were expected to show a strong response to delayed mowing due to their dependence on sward structure, but only species richness showed a clearly significant positive response. Invertebrate abundance was positively influenced in only a few studies. Conclusions The present meta-analysis shows that in general delaying the first mowing date in European meadowlands has either positive or neutral effects on plant and invertebrate biodiversity (except for plant species richness when delaying from spring to fall or from early summer to later). Overall, there was also strong between-study heterogeneity, pointing to other major confounding factors, the elucidation of which requires further field experiments with both larger sample sizes and a distinction between taxon-specific and meadow-type-specific responses.

Modes of Diversification in Bulgarian Higher Education: Case Studies in four Disciplines

This project was stimulated by the unprecedented speed and scope of changes in Bulgarian higher education since 1989. The rapid growth of the student population and the emergence of a new private sector in higher education led to tightening governmental control and a growing criticism of autonomy and academic freedom. This raised questions about the need for diversification in the field, about the importance of recent innovations in terms of strategic choices for future development and so of how higher education governance could maintain diversity without the system deteriorating. The group first traced the extent of spontaneous processes of innovation at the level of content, of institutions, and the organisation of teaching and learning processes. They then identified the different parties in the struggle for institutionalisation and against diversification, and promising mechanisms for maintaining diversity in higher education. On this basis they outlined a basis for a wide-ranging public discussion of the issue which may serve as a corrective to the mechanisms of state control. Their work included analysis of the legislative framework laid down in the Higher Education Act, which effectively dispenses with the autonomy of universities. They then surveyed the views of both high-level executives in the field and the academics actually involved in the process, as well as of the "consumers" of the educational product, i.e. the students. In considering diversification, they focused on four different types of programmes, including those where diversification is largely limited to content level (e.g. Law), those where it operates mainly on structural levels (e.g. Industrial Management), those where it is often feigned (e.g. Social Work), and those where it is at best formal and sporadic (e.g. Mechanical Engineering). They conclude that the educational system in Bulgaria has considerable internal resources for development. The greatest need is for adequate statutory regulation of academic life which will provide incentives for responsible academic development of higher education institutions and create conditions for the institutionalisation of academic self-organisation and self-control, which will in turn limit the pathological trends in the diversification processes.

The Dynamics of the Policies of Ethnic Cleansing in Silesia in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries

Through studying German, Polish and Czech publications on Silesia, Mr. Kamusella found that most of them, instead of trying to objectively analyse the past, are devoted to proving some essential "Germanness", "Polishness" or "Czechness" of this region. He believes that the terminology and thought-patterns of nationalist ideology are so deeply entrenched in the minds of researchers that they do not consider themselves nationalist. However, he notes that, due to the spread of the results of the latest studies on ethnicity/nationalism (by Gellner, Hobsbawm, Smith, Erikson Buillig, amongst others), German publications on Silesia have become quite objective since the 1980s, and the same process (impeded by under funding) has been taking place in Poland and the Czech Republic since 1989. His own research totals some 500 pages, in English, presented on disc. So what are the traps into which historians have been inclined to fall? There is a tendency for them to treat Silesia as an entity which has existed forever, though Mr. Kamusella points out that it emerged as a region only at the beginning of the 11th century. These same historians speak of Poles, Czechs and Germans in Silesia, though Mr. Kamusella found that before the mid-19th century, identification was with an inhabitant's local area, religion or dynasty. In fact, a German national identity started to be forged in Prussian Silesia only during the Liberation War against Napoleon (1813-1815). It was concretised in 1861 in the form of the first Prussian census, when the language a citizen spoke was equated with his/her nationality. A similar census was carried out in Austrian Silesia only in 1881. The censuses forced the Silesians to choose their nationality despite their multiethnic multicultural identities. It was the active promotion of a German identity in Prussian Silesia, and Vienna's uneasy acceptance of the national identities in Austrian Silesia which stimulated the development of Polish national, Moravian ethnic and Upper Silesian ethnic regional identities in Upper Silesia, and Polish national, Czech national, Moravian ethnic and Silesian ethnic identities in Austrian Silesia. While traditional historians speak of the "nationalist struggle" as though it were a permanent characteristic of Silesia, Mr. Kamusella points out that such a struggle only developed in earnest after 1918. What is more, he shows how it has been conveniently forgotten that, besides the national players, there were also significant ethnic movements of Moravians, Upper Silesians, Silesians and the tutejsi (i.e. those who still chose to identify with their locality). At this point Mr. Kamusella moves into the area of linguistics. While traditionally historians have spoken of the conflicts between the three national languages (German, Polish and Czech), Mr Kamusella reminds us that the standardised forms of these languages, which we choose to dub "national", were developed only in the mid-18th century, after 1869 (when Polish became the official language in Galicia), and after the 1870s (when Czech became the official language in Bohemia). As for standard German, it was only widely promoted in Silesia from the mid 19th century onwards. In fact, the majority of the population of Prussian Upper Silesia and Austrian Silesia were bi- or even multilingual. What is more, the "Polish" and "Czech" Silesians spoke were not the standard languages we know today, but a continuum of West-Slavic dialects in the countryside and a continuum of West-Slavic/German creoles in the urbanised areas. Such was the linguistic confusion that, from time to time, some ethnic/regional and Church activists strove to create a distinctive Upper Silesian/Silesian language on the basis of these dialects/creoles, but their efforts were thwarted by the staunch promotion of standard German, and after 1918, of standard Polish and Czech. Still on the subject of language, Mr. Kamusella draws attention to a problem around the issue of place names and personal names. Polish historians use current Polish versions of the Silesian place names, Czechs use current Polish/Czech versions of the place names, and Germans use the German versions which were in use in Silesia up to 1945. Mr. Kamusella attempted to avoid this, as he sees it, nationalist tendency, by using an appropriate version of a place name for a given period and providing its modern counterpart in parentheses. In the case of modern place names he gives the German version in parentheses. As for the name of historical figures, he strove to use the name entered on the birth certificate of the person involved, and by doing so avoid such confusion as, for instance, surrounds the Austrian Silesian pastor L.J. Sherschnik, who in German became Scherschnick, in Polish, Szersznik, and in Czech, Sersnik. Indeed, the prospective Silesian scholar should, Mr. Kamusella suggests, as well as the three languages directly involved in the area itself, know English and French, since many documents and books on the subject have been published in these languages, and even Latin, when dealing in depth with the period before the mid-19th century. Mr. Kamusella divides the policies of ethnic cleansing into two categories. The first he classifies as soft, meaning that policy is confined to the educational system, army, civil service and the church, and the aim is that everyone learn the language of the dominant group. The second is the group of hard policies, which amount to what is popularly labelled as ethnic cleansing. This category of policy aims at the total assimilation and/or physical liquidation of the non-dominant groups non-congruent with the ideal of homogeneity of a given nation-state. Mr. Kamusella found that soft policies were consciously and systematically employed by Prussia/Germany in Prussian Silesia from the 1860s to 1918, whereas in Austrian Silesia, Vienna quite inconsistently dabbled in them from the 1880s to 1917. In the inter-war period, the emergence of the nation-states of Poland and Czechoslovakia led to full employment of the soft policies and partial employment of the hard ones (curbed by the League of Nations minorities protection system) in Czechoslovakian Silesia, German Upper Silesia and the Polish parts of Upper and Austrian Silesia. In 1939-1945, Berlin started consistently using all the "hard" methods to homogenise Polish and Czechoslovakian Silesia which fell, in their entirety, within the Reich's borders. After World War II Czechoslovakia regained its prewar part of Silesia while Poland was given its prewar section plus almost the whole of the prewar German province. Subsequently, with the active involvement and support of the Soviet Union, Warsaw and Prague expelled the majority of Germans from Silesia in 1945-1948 (there were also instances of the Poles expelling Upper Silesian Czechs/Moravians, and of the Czechs expelling Czech Silesian Poles/pro-Polish Silesians). During the period of communist rule, the same two countries carried out a thorough Polonisation and Czechisation of Silesia, submerging this region into a new, non-historically based administrative division. Democratisation in the wake of the fall of communism, and a gradual retreat from the nationalist ideal of the homogeneous nation-state with a view to possible membership of the European Union, caused the abolition of the "hard" policies and phasing out of the "soft" ones. Consequently, limited revivals of various ethnic/national minorities have been observed in Czech and Polish Silesia, whereas Silesian regionalism has become popular in the westernmost part of Silesia which remained part of Germany. Mr. Kamusella believes it is possible that, with the overcoming of the nation-state discourse in European politics, when the expression of multiethnicity and multilingualism has become the cause of the day in Silesia, regionalism will hold sway in this region, uniting its ethnically/nationally variegated population in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity championed by the European Union.

Social Policy Facing the Problems of Youth Employment

Rumiana Stoilova (Bulgaria). Social Policy Facing the Problems of Youth Employment. Ms. Stoilova is a researcher in the Institute of Sociology in Sofia and worked on this project from October 1996 to September 1998. This project involved collecting both statistical and empirical data on the state of youth employment in Bulgaria, which was then compared with similar data from other European countries. One significant aspect was the parallel investigation of employment and unemployment, which took as a premise the continuity of professional experience where unemployment is just a temporary condition caused by external and internal factors. These need to be studied and changed on a systematic basis so as to create a more favourable market situation and to improve individuals' resources for improving their market opportunities. A second important aspect of the project was an analysis of the various entities active on the labour market, including government and private institutions, associations of unemployed persons, of employers or of trade unions, all with their specific legal powers and interests, and of the problems in communication between these. The major trends in youth unemployment during the period studied include a high proportion of the registered unemployed who are not eligible for social assistance, a lengthening of the average period of unemployment, an increase in the percentage of people who are unemployed for the first time and an increasing percentage of these who are not eligible for assistance, particularly among newly registered young people. At the same time the percentage of those for who work has been found is rising and during the last three years an increasing number of the unemployed have started some independent economic activity. Regional differences are also considerable and in the case of the Haskovo region represent a danger of losing the youngest generation, with resulting negative demographic effects. One major weakness of the existing institutional structure is the large scale of the black labour market, with clear negative implications for the young people drawn into it. The role of non-governmental organisations in providing support and information for the unemployed is growing and the government has recently introduced special preferences for organisations offering jobs to unemployed persons. Social policy in the labour market has however been largely restricted to passive measures, mostly because of the risk that poverty poses to people continuously excluded from the labour market. Among the active measures taken, well over half are concerned with providing jobs for the unemployed and there are very limited programmes for providing or improving qualifications. The nature of youth employment in Bulgaria can be seen in the influence of sustained structures (generation) and institutions (family and school). Ms. Stoilova studied the situation of the modern generation through a series of profiles, mostly those of continuously unemployed and self-employed persons, but also distinguishing between students and the unemployed, and between high school and university students. The different categories of young people were studied in separate mini-studies and the survey was carried out in five town in order to gather objective and subjective information on the state of the labour market in the different regions. She conducted interviews with several hundred young people covering questions of family background, career plans, attitudes to the labour situation and government measures to deal with it, and such questions as independence, mobility, attitude to work, etc. The interviews with young people unemployed for a long period of time show the risk involved in starting work and its link with dynamics of economic development. Their approval of structural reforms, of the financial restrictions connected with the introduction of a currency board and the inevitability of unemployment was largely declarative. The findings indicate that the continuously unemployed need practical knowledge and skills to "translate" the macroeconomic realities in concrete alternatives of individual work and initiative. The unemployed experience their exclusion from the labour market not only as a professional problem but also as an existential threat, of poverty, forced mobility and dependence on their parents' generation. The exclusion from the market of goods and services means more than just exercising restraint in their consumption, as it places restrictions on their personal development. Ms. Stoilova suggests that more efficient ways of providing financial aid and mobilisation are needed to counteract the social disintegration and marginalisation of the continuously unemployed. In measuring the speed of reform, university students took both employment opportunities and the implementation of the meritocratic principle in employment into account. When offered a hypothetical choice between a well-paid job and work in one's own profession, 62% would prefer opt for the well-paid job and for working for a company that offered career opportunities rather than employment in a family or own company. While most see the information gained during their studies as useful and interesting, relatively few see their education as competitive on a wider level and many were pessimistic about employment opportunities based on their qualifications. Very similar attitudes were found among high school students, with differences being due rather to family and personal situations. The unemployed, on the other hand, placed greater emphasis on possibilities of gaining or improving qualifications on a job and for the opportunities it would offer for personal contacts. High school students tend to attribute more significance to opportunities for personal accomplishment. A significant difference that five times fewer high school students were willing to work for state-owned companies, and many fewer expected to find permanent employment or to find a job in the area where they lived, Within the family situation, actual support for children seems to be higher than the feelings of confidence expressed in interviews. The attitudes of the families towards past experience seems to be linked with their ability to cope with the difficulties of the present, with those families which show an optimistic and active attitude towards the future having a greater respect for parents experience and tolerance in communication between parents and children.

The Influence of the Social and Cultural Environment on a Child's Playing in the First Three Years of Life

The research focused on children's behaviour in playing with objects both independently and in interaction with adults. It was based on studies of 40 Slovene children in 4 age groups (6,12,18 and 24 months) and of 23 Croatian children in 2 age groups (18 and 24 months). All the children were sampled proportionally by their gender and the educational level of their parents (middle and higher). Several coding check lists with satisfactory internal consistency were constructed during the study and used to analyse the video-recorded playing sessions with each child. The basic conclusion reached was that even in early childhood playing behaviour differs significantly between the infants from the two Central European countries. The difference lies not so much in the structure or the content of the playing actions, but in the way in which the infants deal playfully with the objects. This difference appears regardless of the type of object the infants are playing with and even regardless of the playing condition. It can best be described as the difference between the first significant discriminant function activity versus passivity. The Slovene infants were found to be on the active pole and the Croatians on the passive one. Social and gender differences were much less significant than cultural ones in determining the structure, the content and the way of playing. Significant age differences appeared in all three aspects, which was consistent with general trends in infants' psychological development. The group define the Slovene interactive playing style as object oriented, while the Croatian one was largely communicated oriented. Within the experimenter-infant dyads, children of both cultures played at a developmentally more advanced level than they did with their mothers, showing that the mothers were not as successful at reaching the ZPD as were the trained experimenters. In addition, the children of mothers who attributed more cognitive benefit to play played on a more advanced level than those whose mothers attributed more emotional benefit to play. The quality of the object the children were playing with was also significantly related to the structure, content and partly the way of dealing with the objects. Highly-structured objects stimulated complex play and low-structured ones stimulated simple play, regardless of playing conditions. The group concluded that both culture and the quality of the available object have an important impact on young children's play. Through the playing interaction, the infants internalise culturally specific patterns of behaviour and culturally specific meanings. These internalisations become apparent very early in their lives, even in non-social situations. On the other hand, the objects themselves have an impact on the level of infants' play. When they do not provide sufficient perceptive and functional support for a representational action, the infants' play will lag behind their actual developmental capacities.

Antinociceptive effects, metabolism and disposition of ketamine in ponies under target-controlled drug infusion

Ketamine is widely used as an anesthetic in a variety of drug combinations in human and veterinary medicine. Recently, it gained new interest for use in long-term pain therapy administered in sub-anesthetic doses in humans and animals. The purpose of this study was to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPk) model for ketamine in ponies and to investigate the effect of low-dose ketamine infusion on the amplitude and the duration of the nociceptive withdrawal reflex (NWR). A target-controlled infusion (TCI) of ketamine with a target plasma level of 1 microg/ml S-ketamine over 120 min under isoflurane anesthesia was performed in Shetland ponies. A quantitative electromyographic assessment of the NWR was done before, during and after the TCI. Plasma levels of R-/S-ketamine and R-/S-norketamine were determined by enantioselective capillary electrophoresis. These data and two additional data sets from bolus studies were used to build a PBPk model for ketamine in ponies. The peak-to-peak amplitude and the duration of the NWR decreased significantly during TCI and returned slowly toward baseline values after the end of TCI. The PBPk model provides reliable prediction of plasma and tissue levels of R- and S-ketamine and R- and S-norketamine. Furthermore, biotransformation of ketamine takes place in the liver and in the lung via first-pass metabolism. Plasma concentrations of S-norketamine were higher compared to R-norketamine during TCI at all time points. Analysis of the data suggested identical biotransformation rates from the parent compounds to the principle metabolites (R- and S-norketamine) but different downstream metabolism to further metabolites. The PBPk model can provide predictions of R- and S-ketamine and norketamine concentrations in other clinical settings (e.g. horses).

Anatomical study of the human middle ear for the design of implantable hearing aids

OBJECTIVE: To generate anatomical data on the human middle ear and adjacent structures to serve as a base for the development and optimization of new implantable hearing aid transducers. Implantable middle ear hearing aid transducers, i.e. the equivalent to the loudspeaker in conventional hearing aids, should ideally fit into the majority of adult middle ears and should utilize the limited space optimally to achieve sufficiently high maximal output levels. For several designs, more anatomical data are needed. METHODS: Twenty temporal bones of 10 formalin-fixed adult human heads were scanned by a computed tomography system (CT) using a slide thickness of 0.63 mm. Twelve landmarks were defined and 24 different distances were calculated for each temporal bone. RESULTS: A statistical description of 24 distances in the adult human middle ear which may limit or influence the design of middle ear transducers is presented. Significant inter-individual differences but no significant differences for gender, side, age or degree of pneumatization of the mastoid were found. Distances, which were not analyzed for the first time in this study, were found to be in good agreement with the results of earlier studies. CONCLUSION: A data set describing the adult human middle ear anatomy quantitatively from the point of view of designers of new implantable hearing aid transducers has been generated. In principle, the method employed in this study using standard CT scans could also be used preoperatively to rule out exclusion criteria.

Mortality of HIV-1-infected patients in the first year of antiretroviral therapy: comparison between low-income and high-income countries

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is being scaled up in developing countries. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes during the first year of HAART between HIV-1-infected patients in low-income and high-income settings. METHODS: 18 HAART programmes in Africa, Asia, and South America (low-income settings) and 12 HIV cohort studies from Europe and North America (high-income settings) provided data for 4810 and 22,217, respectively, treatment-naive adult patients starting HAART. All patients from high-income settings and 2725 (57%) patients from low-income settings were actively followed-up and included in survival analyses. FINDINGS: Compared with high-income countries, patients starting HAART in low-income settings had lower CD4 cell counts (median 108 cells per muL vs 234 cells per muL), were more likely to be female (51%vs 25%), and more likely to start treatment with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (70%vs 23%). At 6 months, the median number of CD4 cells gained (106 cells per muL vs 103 cells per muL) and the percentage of patients reaching HIV-1 RNA levels lower than 500 copies/mL (76%vs 77%) were similar. Mortality was higher in low-income settings (124 deaths during 2236 person-years of follow-up) than in high-income settings (414 deaths during 20,532 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of mortality comparing low-income with high-income settings fell from 4.3 (95% CI 1.6-11.8) during the first month to 1.5 (0.7-3.0) during months 7-12. The provision of treatment free of charge in low-income settings was associated with lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.61). INTERPRETATION: Patients starting HAART in resource-poor settings have increased mortality rates in the first months on therapy, compared with those in developed countries. Timely diagnosis and assessment of treatment eligibility, coupled with free provision of HAART, might reduce this excess mortality.

Vulvovaginal-swab or first-catch urine specimen to detect Chlamydia trachomatis in women in a community setting?

Screening for chlamydia in women is widely recommended. We evaluated the performance of two nucleic acid amplification tests for detecting Chlamydia trachomatis in self-collected vulvovaginal-swab and first-catch urine specimens from women in a community setting and a strategy for optimizing the sensitivity of an amplified enzyme immunoassay on vulvovaginal-swab specimens. We tested 2,745 paired vulvovaginal-swab and urine specimens by PCR (Roche Cobas) or strand displacement amplification (SDA; Becton Dickinson). There were 146 women infected with chlamydia. The assays detected 97.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 93.1 to 99.2%) of infected patients with vulvovaginal-swab specimens and 91.8% (86.1 to 95.7%) with urine specimens. We tested 2,749 vulvovaginal-swab specimens with both a nucleic acid amplification test and a polymer conjugate-enhanced enzyme immunoassay with negative-gray-zone testing. The relative sensitivities obtained after retesting specimens in the negative gray zone were 74.3% (95% CI, 62.8 to 83.8%) with PCR and 58.3% (95% CI, 46.1 to 69.8%) with SDA. In community settings, both vulvovaginal-swab and first-catch urine specimens from women are suitable substrates for nucleic acid amplification tests, but enzyme immunoassays, even after negative-gray-zone testing, should not be used in screening programs.

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis. METHODS: We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51). INTERPRETATION: Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.

Prospectively assessed incidence, severity, and determinants of respiratory symptoms in the first year of life

Respiratory symptoms are common in infancy. Nevertheless, few prospective birth cohort studies have studied the epidemiology of respiratory symptoms in normal infants. The aim of this study was to prospectively obtain reliable data on incidence, severity, and determinants of common respiratory symptoms (including cough and wheeze) in normal infants and to determine factors associated with these symptoms. In a prospective population-based birth cohort, we assessed respiratory symptoms during the first year of life by weekly phone calls to the mothers. Poisson regression was used to examine the association between symptoms and various risk factors. In the first year of life, respiratory symptoms occurred in 181/195 infants (93%), more severe symptoms in 89 (46%). The average infant had respiratory symptoms for 4 weeks and 90% had symptoms for less than 12 weeks (range 0 to 23). Male sex, higher birth weight, maternal asthma, having older siblings and nursery care were associated with more, maternal hay fever with fewer respiratory symptoms. The association with prenatal maternal smoking decreased with time since birth. This study provides reliable data on the frequency of cough and wheeze during the first year of life in healthy infants; this may help in the interpretation of published hospital and community-based studies. The apparently reduced risk in children of mothers with hayfever but no asthma, and the decreasing effect of prenatal smoke exposure over time illustrate the complexity of respiratory pathology in the first year of life.

Underestimation of Standard Errors in Multi-Site Time Series Studies

Multi-site time series studies of air pollution and mortality and morbidity have figured prominently in the literature as comprehensive approaches for estimating acute effects of air pollution on health. Hierarchical models are generally used to combine site-specific information and estimate pooled air pollution effects taking into account both within-site statistical uncertainty, and across-site heterogeneity. Within a site, characteristics of time series data of air pollution and health (small pollution effects, missing data, highly correlated predictors, non linear confounding etc.) make modelling all sources of uncertainty challenging. One potential consequence is underestimation of the statistical variance of the site-specific effects to be combined. In this paper we investigate the impact of variance underestimation on the pooled relative rate estimate. We focus on two-stage normal-normal hierarchical models and on under- estimation of the statistical variance at the first stage. By mathematical considerations and simulation studies, we found that variance underestimation does not affect the pooled estimate substantially. However, some sensitivity of the pooled estimate to variance underestimation is observed when the number of sites is small and underestimation is severe. These simulation results are applicable to any two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model for combining information of site-specific results, and they can be easily extended to more general hierarchical formulations. We also examined the impact of variance underestimation on the national average relative rate estimate from the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study and we found that variance underestimation as much as 40% has little effect on the national average.

ESTIMATING TEMPORAL ASSOCIATIONS IN ELECTROCORTICOGRAPHIC (ECoG) TIME SERIES WITH FIRST ORDER PRUNING

Granger causality (GC) is a statistical technique used to estimate temporal associations in multivariate time series. Many applications and extensions of GC have been proposed since its formulation by Granger in 1969. Here we control for potentially mediating or confounding associations between time series in the context of event-related electrocorticographic (ECoG) time series. A pruning approach to remove spurious connections and simultaneously reduce the required number of estimations to fit the effective connectivity graph is proposed. Additionally, we consider the potential of adjusted GC applied to independent components as a method to explore temporal relationships between underlying source signals. Both approaches overcome limitations encountered when estimating many parameters in multivariate time-series data, an increasingly common predicament in today's brain mapping studies.