Risk Minimizing Option Pricing in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market

We address risk minimizing option pricing in a semi-Markov modulated market where the floating interest rate depends on a finite state semi-Markov process. The growth rate and the volatility of the stock also depend on the semi-Markov process. Using the Föllmer–Schweizer decomposition we find the locally risk minimizing price for European options and the corresponding hedging strategy. We develop suitable numerical methods for computing option prices.

The role of fruit traits of bird-dispersed plants in invasiveness and weed risk assessment

Aim: Birds play a major role in the dispersal of seeds of many fleshy-fruited invasive plants. The fruits that birds choose to consume are influenced by fruit traits. However, little is known of how the traits of invasive plant fruits contribute to invasiveness or to their use by frugivores. We aim to gain a greater understanding of these relationships to improve invasive plant management. Location: South-east Queensland, Australia. Methods: We measure a variety of fruit morphology, pulp nutrient and phenology traits of a suite of bird-dispersed alien plants. Frugivore richness of these aliens was derived from the literature. Using regressions and multivariate methods, we investigate relationships between fruit traits, frugivore richness and invasiveness. Results: Plant invasiveness was negatively correlated to fruit size, and all highly invasive species had quite similar fruit morphology [smaller fruits, seeds of intermediate size and few (<10) seeds per fruit]. Lower pulp water was the only pulp nutrient trait associated with invasiveness. There were strong positive relationships between the diversity of bird frugivores and plant invasiveness, and in the diversity of bird frugivores in the study region and another part of the plants' alien range. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that weed risk assessments (WRA) and predictions of invasive success for bird-dispersed plants can be improved. Scoring criteria for WRA regarding fruit size would need to be system-specific, depending on the fruit-processing capabilities of local frugivores. Frugivore richness could be quantified in the plant's natural range, its invasive range elsewhere, or predictions made based on functionally similar fruits.

Guidance for addressing the Australian Weed Risk Assessment questions

This paper provides guidance on how to address the 49 questions of the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) system. The WRA was developed in Australia in 1999, and has since been widely adapted for different regions. As interest in implementation and results comparison has increased, the issue of consistency in answering and scoring the questions has become important. As a result, this guidance was developed during the 2007 International WRA Workshop. Suggestions on search methods, data sources and examples are also provided.

Application of a model to assess aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

When exposed to hot (22-35 degrees C) and dry climatic conditions in the field during the final 4-6 weeks of pod filling, peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) can accumulate highly carcinogenic and immuno-suppressing aflatoxins. Forecasting of the risk posed by these conditions can assist in minimizing pre-harvest contamination. A model was therefore developed as part of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) peanut module, which calculated an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) using four temperature response functions when fractional available soil water was <0.20 and the crop was in the last 0.40 of the pod-filling phase. ARI explained 0.95 (P <= 0.05) of the variation in aflatoxin contamination, which varied from 0 to c. 800 mu g/kg in 17 large-scale sowings in tropical and four sowings in sub-tropical environments carried out in Australia between 13 November and 16 December 2007. ARI also explained 0.96 (P <= 0.01) of the variation in the proportion of aflatoxin-contaminated loads (>15 mu g/kg) of peanuts in the Kingaroy region of Australia during the period between the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons. Simulation of ARI using historical climatic data from 1890 to 2007 indicated a three-fold increase in its value since 1980 compared to the entire previous period. The increase was associated with increases in ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. To facilitate routine monitoring of aflatoxin risk by growers in near real time, a web interface of the model was also developed. The ARI predicted using this interface for eight growers correlated significantly with the level of contamination in crops (r=095, P <= 0.01). These results suggest that ARI simulated by the model is a reliable indicator of aflatoxin contamination that can be used in aflatoxin research as well as a decision-support tool to monitor pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

Early harvest and ensilage of forage sorghum infected with ergot (Claviceps africana) reduces the risk of livestock poisoning.

Sorghum ergot produces dihydroergosine (DHES) and related alkaloids, which cause hyperthermia in cattle. Proportions of infected panicles (grain heads), leaves and stems were determined in two forage sorghum crops extensively infected 2 to 4 weeks prior to sampling and the panicles were assayed for DHES. Composite samples from each crop, plus a third grain variety crop, were coarsely chopped and half of each sealed in plastic buckets for 6 weeks to simulate ensilation. The worst-infected panicles contained up to 55 mg DHES/kg, but dilution reduced average concentrations of DHES in crops to approximately 1 mg/kg, a relatively safe level for cattle. Ensilation significantly (P = 0.043) reduced mean DHES concentrations from 0.85 to 0.46 mg/kg.

Pyrrolizidine Alkaloids in Crotalaria Taxa from Northern Australia: Risk to Grazing Livestock.

Crotalaria species containing hepatotoxic pyrrolizidine alkaloids grow widely in pastures in northern Australia and have sporadically poisoned grazing livestock. The diverse Crotalaria taxa present in these pastures include varieties, subspecies, and chemotypes not previously chemically examined. This paper reports the pyrrolizidine alkaloid composition and content of 24 Crotalaria taxa from this region and assesses the risk of poisoning in livestock consuming them. Alkaloids present in C. goreensis, C. aridicola subsp. densifolia, and C. medicaginea var. neglecta lack the esterified 1,2-unsaturated functionality required for pyrrole adduct formation, and these taxa are not hepatotoxic. Taxa with high levels of hepatotoxic alkaloids, abundance, and biomass pose the greatest risk to livestock health, particularly C. novae-hollandiae subsp. novae-hollandiae, C. ramosissima, C. retusa var. retusa, and C. crispata. Other species containing moderate alkaloid levels, C. spectabilis and C. mitchellii, also pose significant risk when locally abundant.

Mandatory Reporting and the Difficulties Identifying and Responding to Risk of Severe Neglect: A Response Requiring a Rethink

Neglect of children is a significant social issue worldwide and is typically the most frequently reported form of maltreatment in Western nations, with its severe forms sometimes resulting in significant illness and disablement or death. Yet, paradoxically, it remains ‘neglected’ and largely in the shadow of physical and sexual abuse, often being viewed as less serious despite the real-life consequences of its insidious and compounding nature and the lasting damage it causes to intergenerational familial relationships and the life outcomes of those affected. This chapter explores the many complex forms of child neglect, its causes and impacts and the strategies to prevent it. In particular, a critical standpoint is taken in analysing the rationale and merits of mandatory reporting of neglect and their effects, systemically and for children.

The association between perception of health during pregnancy and the risk of cardiovascular disease: A prospective study

There is some evidence that self-rated perceptions of health are predictive of objective health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, and mortality. The objective of this study was to examine the prospective association between perceptions of health during pregnancy and cardiovascular risk factors of mothers 21 years after the pregnancy. Data used were from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a community-based prospective birth cohort study begun in Brisbane, Australia, in 1981. Logistic regression analyses were conducted. Data were available for 3692 women. Women who perceived themselves as not having a straight forward pregnancy had twice the odds (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1–3.8) of being diagnosed with heart disease 21 years after the pregnancy when compared with women with a straight forward pregnancy (event rate of 5.2 versus 2.6%). Women who experienced complications (other than serious pregnancy complications) during their pregnancy were also at 30% increased odds (adjusted OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0–1.6) of having hypertension 21years later (event rate of 25.7 versus 20%). As a whole, our study sug- gests that pregnant women who perceived that they had complications and did not have a straight forward preg- nancy were likely to experience poorer cardiovascular outcomes 21years after that pregnancy.

Reduced risk of acute poisoning in Australian cattle from used motor oils after introduction of lead-free petrol.

Lead (Pb) poisoning of cattle has been relatively common in Australia and sump oil has been identified as an important cause of Pb toxicity for cattle because they seem to have a tendency to drink it. Lead-free petrol has been available in Australia since 1975, so the aim of this study was to assess the current risk to cattle from drinking used automotive oils. Sump or gear box oil was collected from 56 vehicles being serviced. The low levels of Pb found suggest that the removal of leaded petrol from the Australian market as a public health measure has benefited cattle by eliminating the risk of acute poisoning from used engine oil.

Independent replication and meta-analysis for endometriosis risk loci

Endometriosis is a complex disease that affects 6-10% of women in their reproductive years and 20-50% of women with infertility. Genome-wide and candidate-gene association studies for endometriosis have identified 10 independent risk loci, and of these, nine (rs7521902, rs13394619, rs4141819, rs6542095, rs1519761, rs7739264, rs12700667, rs1537377, and rs10859871) are polymorphic in European populations. Here we investigate the replication of nine SNP loci in 998 laparoscopically and histologically confirmed endometriosis cases and 783 disease-free controls from Belgium. SNPs rs7521902, rs13394619, and rs6542095 show nominally significant (p <.05) associations with endometriosis, while the directions of effect for seven SNPs are consistent with the original reports. Association of rs6542095 at the IL1A locus with 'All' (p =.066) and 'Grade-B' (p =.01) endometriosis is noteworthy because this is the first successful replication in an independent population. Meta-analysis with the published results yields genome-wide significant evidence for rs7521902, rs13394619, rs6542095, rs12700667, rs7739264, and rs1537377. Notably, three coding variants in GREB1 (near rs13394619) and CDKN2B-AS1 (near rs1537377) also showed nominally significant associations with endometriosis. Overall, this study provides important replication in a uniquely characterized independent population, and indicates that the majority of the original genome-wide association findings are not due to chance alone. © The Author(s) 2015.

Norsesquiterpene Glycosides in Bracken Ferns (Pteridium esculentum and Pteridium aquilinum subsp wightianum) from Eastern Australia: Reassessed Poisoning Risk to Animals.

Austral bracken Pteridium esculentum contains three unstable norsesquiterpene glycosides: ptaquiloside, ptesculento-side, and caudatoside, in variable proportions. The concentration of each of the glycosides was determined in this study as their respective degradation products, pterosin B, pterosin G and pterosin A, by HPLC-UV analysis. Samples of P. esculentum collected from six sites in eastern Australia contained up to 17 mg of total glycoside/g DW, with both ptaquiloside and ptesculentoside present as major components accompanied by smaller amounts of caudatoside. Ratios of ptaquiloside to ptesculentoside varied from 1:3 to 4:3, but in all Australian samples ptesculentoside was a significant component. This profile differed substantially from that of P. esculentum from New Zealand, which contained only small amounts of both ptesculentoside and caudatoside, with ptaquiloside as the dominant component. A similar profile with ptaquiloside as the dominant glycoside was obtained for Pteridium aquilinum subsp. wightianum (previously P. revolutum) from northern Queensland and also P. aquilinum from European sources. Ptesculentoside has chemical reactivity similar to that of ptaquiloside and presumably biological activity similar to that of this potent carcinogen. The presence of this additional reactive glycoside in Australian P. esculentum implies greater toxicity for consuming animals than previously estimated from ptaquiloside content alone.

Concordance of genetic risk across migraine subgroups: Impact on current and future genetic association studies

BACKGROUND There has been intensive debate whether migraine with aura (MA) and migraine without aura (MO) should be considered distinct subtypes or part of the same disease spectrum. There is also discussion to what extent migraine cases collected in specialised headache clinics differ from cases from population cohorts, and how female cases differ from male cases with respect to their migraine. To assess the genetic overlap between these migraine subgroups, we examined genome-wide association (GWA) results from analysis of 23,285 migraine cases and 95,425 population-matched controls. METHODS Detailed heterogeneity analysis of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) effects (odds ratios) between migraine subgroups was performed for the 12 independent SNP loci significantly associated (p < 5 x 10(-8); thus surpassing the threshold for genome-wide significance) with migraine susceptibility. Overall genetic overlap was assessed using SNP effect concordance analysis (SECA) at over 23,000 independent SNPs. RESULTS: Significant heterogeneity of SNP effects (p het < 1.4 x 10(-3)) was observed between the MA and MO subgroups (for SNP rs9349379), and between the clinic- and population-based subgroups (for SNPs rs10915437, rs6790925 and rs6478241). However, for all 12 SNPs the risk-increasing allele was the same, and SECA found the majority of genome-wide SNP effects to be in the same direction across the subgroups. CONCLUSIONS Any differences in common genetic risk across these subgroups are outweighed by the similarities. Meta-analysis of additional migraine GWA datasets, regardless of their major subgroup composition, will identify new susceptibility loci for migraine.

Androgenetic alopecia: Identification of four genetic risk loci and evidence for the contribution of WNT signaling to its etiology

The pathogenesis of androgenetic alopecia (AGA, male-pattern baldness) is driven by androgens, and genetic predisposition is the major prerequisite. Candidate gene and genome-wide association studies have reported that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at eight different genomic loci are associated with AGA development. However, a significant fraction of the overall heritable risk still awaits identification. Furthermore, the understanding of the pathophysiology of AGA is incomplete, and each newly associated locus may provide novel insights into contributing biological pathways. The aim of this study was to identify unknown AGA risk loci by replicating SNPs at the 12 genomic loci that showed suggestive association (5 x 10(-8)firm the association with AGA at these loci. Combined analysis of the replication and the meta-analysis data identified four genome-wide significant risk loci for AGA on chromosomes 2q35, 3q25.1, 5q33.3, and 12p12.1. The strongest association signal was obtained for rs7349332 (P=3.55 x 10(-15)) on chr2q35, which is located intronically in WNT10A. Expression studies in human hair follicle tissue suggest that WNT10A has a functional role in AGA etiology. Thus, our study provides genetic evidence supporting an involvement of WNT signaling in AGA development.