Building adaptable agent-based models – application to the electricity distribution network

Agent-based modelling (ABM), like other modelling techniques, is used to answer specific questions from real world systems that could otherwise be expensive or impractical. Its recent gain in popularity can be attributed to some degree to its capacity to use information at a fine level of detail of the system, both geographically and temporally, and generate information at a higher level, where emerging patterns can be observed. This technique is data-intensive, as explicit data at a fine level of detail is used and it is computer-intensive as many interactions between agents, which can learn and have a goal, are required. With the growing availability of data and the increase in computer power, these concerns are however fading. Nonetheless, being able to update or extend the model as more information becomes available can become problematic, because of the tight coupling of the agents and their dependence on the data, especially when modelling very large systems. One large system to which ABM is currently applied is the electricity distribution where thousands of agents representing the network and the consumers’ behaviours are interacting with one another. A framework that aims at answering a range of questions regarding the potential evolution of the grid has been developed and is presented here. It uses agent-based modelling to represent the engineering infrastructure of the distribution network and has been built with flexibility and extensibility in mind. What distinguishes the method presented here from the usual ABMs is that this ABM has been developed in a compositional manner. This encompasses not only the software tool, which core is named MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model) but the model itself. Using such approach enables the model to be extended as more information becomes available or modified as the electricity system evolves, leading to an adaptable model. Two well-known modularity principles in the software engineering domain are information hiding and separation of concerns. These principles were used to develop the agent-based model on top of OSGi and Eclipse plugins which have good support for modularity. Information regarding the model entities was separated into a) assets which describe the entities’ physical characteristics, and b) agents which describe their behaviour according to their goal and previous learning experiences. This approach diverges from the traditional approach where both aspects are often conflated. It has many advantages in terms of reusability of one or the other aspect for different purposes as well as composability when building simulations. For example, the way an asset is used on a network can greatly vary while its physical characteristics are the same – this is the case for two identical battery systems which usage will vary depending on the purpose of their installation. While any battery can be described by its physical properties (e.g. capacity, lifetime, and depth of discharge), its behaviour will vary depending on who is using it and what their aim is. The model is populated using data describing both aspects (physical characteristics and behaviour) and can be updated as required depending on what simulation is to be run. For example, data can be used to describe the environment to which the agents respond to – e.g. weather for solar panels, or to describe the assets and their relation to one another – e.g. the network assets. Finally, when running a simulation, MODAM calls on its module manager that coordinates the different plugins, automates the creation of the assets and agents using factories, and schedules their execution which can be done sequentially or in parallel for faster execution. Building agent-based models in this way has proven fast when adding new complex behaviours, as well as new types of assets. Simulations have been run to understand the potential impact of changes on the network in terms of assets (e.g. installation of decentralised generators) or behaviours (e.g. response to different management aims). While this platform has been developed within the context of a project focussing on the electricity domain, the core of the software, MODAM, can be extended to other domains such as transport which is part of future work with the addition of electric vehicles.

Estimation of vibration amplitude in Fourier domain optical coherence tomography interferometric signals from Doppler spectrum

In presented method combination of Fourier and Time domain detection enables to broaden the effective bandwidth for time dependent Doppler Signal that allows for using higher-order Bessel functions to calculate unambiguously the vibration amplitudes.

Arts practice and disconnected youth in Australia : impact and domains of change

Background: This paper describes research conducted with Big hART, Australia's most awarded participatory arts company. It considers three projects, LUCKY, GOLD and NGAPARTJI NGAPARTJI across separate sites in Tasmania, Western NSW and Northern Territory, respectively, in order to understand project impact from the perspective of project participants, Arts workers, community members and funders. Methods: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 29 respondents. The data were coded thematically and analysed using the constant comparative method of qualitative data analysis. Results: Seven broad domains of change were identified: psychosocial health; community; agency and behavioural change; the Art; economic effect; learning and identity. Conclusions: Experiences of participatory arts are interrelated in an ecology of practice that is iterative, relational, developmental, temporal and contextually bound. This means that questions of impact are contingent, and there is no one path that participants travel or single measure that can adequately capture the richness and diversity of experience. Consequently, it is the productive tensions between the domains of change that are important and the way they are animated through Arts practice that provides sign posts towards the impact of Big hART projects.

Vaccination of koalas with a recombinant Chlamydia pecorum major outer membrane protein induces antibodies of different specificity compared to those following a natural live infection

Chlamydial infection in koalas is common across the east coast of Australia and causes significant morbidity, infertility and mortality. An effective vaccine to prevent the adverse consequences of chlamydial infections in koalas (particularly blindness and infertility in females) would provide an important management tool to prevent further population decline of this species. An important step towards developing a vaccine in koalas is to understand the host immune response to chlamydial infection. In this study, we used the Pepscan methodology to identify B cell epitopes across the Major Outer Membrane Protein (MOMP) of four C. pecorum strains/genotypes that are recognized, either following (a) natural live infection or (b) administration of a recombinant MOMP vaccine. Plasma antibodies from the koalas naturally infected with a C. pecorum G genotype strain recognised the epitopes located in the variable domain (VD) four of MOMP G and also VD4 of MOMP H. By comparison, plasma antibodies from an animal infected with a C. pecorum F genotype strain recognised epitopes in VD1, 2 and 4 of MOMP F, but not from other genotype MOMPs. When Chlamydia-free koalas were immunised with recombinant MOMP protein they produced antibodies not only against epitopes in the VDs but also in conserved domains of MOMP. Naturally infected koalas immunised with recombinant MOMP protein also produced antibodies against epitopes in the conserved domains. This work paves the way for further refinement of a MOMP-based Chlamydia vaccine that will offer wide cross-protection against the variety of chlamydial infections circulating in wild koala populations.

Time-domain hydroelastic analysis of a flexible marine structure using state-space models

This article deals with time-domain hydroelastic analysis of a marine structure. The convolution terms associated with fluid memory effects are replaced by an alternative state-space representation, the parameters of which are obtained by using realization theory. The mathematical model established is validated by comparison to experimental results of a very flexible barge. Two types of time-domain simulations are performed: dynamic response of the initially inert structure to incident regular waves and transient response of the structure after it is released from a displaced condition in still water. The accuracy and the efficiency of the simulations based on the state-space model representations are compared to those that integrate the convolutions.

Time- vs. frequency-domain identification of parametric radiation force models for marine structures at zero speed

The dynamics describing the motion response of a marine structure in waves can be represented within a linear framework by the Cummins Equation. This equation contains a convolution term that represents the component of the radiation forces associated with fluid memory effects. Several methods have been proposed in the literature for the identification of parametric models to approximate and replace this convolution term. This replacement can facilitate the model implementation in simulators and the analysis of motion control designs. Some of the reported identification methods consider the problem in the time domain while other methods consider the problem in the frequency domain. This paper compares the application of these identification methods. The comparison is based not only on the quality of the estimated models, but also on the ease of implementation, ease of use, and the flexibility of the identification method to incorporate prior information related to the model being identified. To illustrate the main points arising from the comparison, a particular example based on the coupled vertical motion of a modern containership vessel is presented.

Hybrid frequency–time domain models for dynamic response analysis of marine structures

Time-domain models of marine structures based on frequency domain data are usually built upon the Cummins equation. This type of model is a vector integro-differential equation which involves convolution terms. These convolution terms are not convenient for analysis and design of motion control systems. In addition, these models are not efficient with respect to simulation time, and ease of implementation in standard simulation packages. For these reasons, different methods have been proposed in the literature as approximate alternative representations of the convolutions. Because the convolution is a linear operation, different approaches can be followed to obtain an approximately equivalent linear system in the form of either transfer function or state-space models. This process involves the use of system identification, and several options are available depending on how the identification problem is posed. This raises the question whether one method is better than the others. This paper therefore has three objectives. The first objective is to revisit some of the methods for replacing the convolutions, which have been reported in different areas of analysis of marine systems: hydrodynamics, wave energy conversion, and motion control systems. The second objective is to compare the different methods in terms of complexity and performance. For this purpose, a model for the response in the vertical plane of a modern containership is considered. The third objective is to describe the implementation of the resulting model in the standard simulation environment Matlab/Simulink.

The IKBALS project: multi-modal reasoning in legal knowledge based systems

In attempting to build intelligent litigation support tools, we have moved beyond first generation, production rule legal expert systems. Our work integrates rule based and case based reasoning with intelligent information retrieval. When using the case based reasoning methodology, or in our case the specialisation of case based retrieval, we need to be aware of how to retrieve relevant experience. Our research, in the legal domain, specifies an approach to the retrieval problem which relies heavily on an extended object oriented/rule based system architecture that is supplemented with causal background information. We use a distributed agent architecture to help support the reasoning process of lawyers. Our approach to integrating rule based reasoning, case based reasoning and case based retrieval is contrasted to the CABARET and PROLEXS architectures which rely on a centralised blackboard architecture. We discuss in detail how our various cooperating agents interact, and provide examples of the system at work. The IKBALS system uses a specialised induction algorithm to induce rules from cases. These rules are then used as indices during the case based retrieval process. Because we aim to build legal support tools which can be modified to suit various domains rather than single purpose legal expert systems, we focus on principles behind developing legal knowledge based systems. The original domain chosen was theAccident Compensation Act 1989 (Victoria, Australia), which relates to the provision of benefits for employees injured at work. For various reasons, which are indicated in the paper, we changed our domain to that ofCredit Act 1984 (Victoria, Australia). This Act regulates the provision of loans by financial institutions. The rule based part of our system which provides advice on the Credit Act has been commercially developed in conjunction with a legal firm. We indicate how this work has lead to the development of a methodology for constructing rule based legal knowledge based systems. We explain the process of integrating this existing commercial rule based system with the case base reasoning and retrieval architecture.

Validation of a parent-proxy quality of life questionnaire for paediatric chronic cough (PC-QOL)

Background Quality of life (QOL) measures are an important patient-relevant outcome measure for clinical studies. Currently there is no fully validated cough-specific QOL measure for paediatrics. The objective of this study was to validate a cough-specific QOL questionnaire for paediatric use. Method 43 children (28 males, 15 females; median age 29 months, IQR 20–41 months) newly referred for chronic cough participated. One parent of each child completed the 27-item Parent Cough-Specific QOL questionnaire (PC-QOL), and the generic child (Pediatric QOL Inventory 4.0 (PedsQL)) and parent QOL questionnaires (SF-12) and two cough-related measures (visual analogue score and verbal category descriptive score) on two occasions separated by 2–3 weeks. Cough counts were also objectively measured on both occasions. Results Internal consistency for both the domains and total PC-QOL at both test times was excellent (Cronbach alpha range 0.70–0.97). Evidence for repeatability and criterion validity was established, with significant correlations over time and significant relationships with the cough measures. The PC-QOL was sensitive to change across the test times and these changes were significantly related to changes in cough measures (PC-QOL with: verbal category descriptive score, rs=−0.37, p=0.016; visual analogue score, rs=−0.47, p=0.003). Significant correlations of the difference scores for the social domain of the PC-QOL and the domain and total scores of the PedsQL were also noted (rs=0.46, p=0.034). Conclusion The PC-QOL is a reliable and valid outcome measure that assesses QOL related to childhood cough at a given time point and measures changes in cough-specific QOL over time.

Studies on the in-plane shear response of confined masonry shear walls

The prime aim of this research project is to evaluate the performance of confined masonry walls under in-plane shear with a view to contributing to the national masonry design standard through a set of design clauses. This aim stems from the criticisms of the current provisions of the in-plane shear capacity equations in the Australian Masonry Standard AS3700 (2011) being highly non-conservative. This PhD thesis is an attempt to address this gap in the knowledge through systematic investigation of the key parameters that affects the in-plane shear strength of the masonry walls through laboratory experiments and extensive finite element analyses.

Unsteady natural convection within a porous enclosure of sinusoidal corrugated side walls

Numerically investigation of free convection within a porous cavity with differential heating has been performed using modified corrugated side walls. Sinusoidal hot left and cold right walls are assumed to receive sudden differentially heating where top and bottom walls are insulated. Air is considered as working fluid and is quiescent, initially. Numerical experiments reveal 3 distinct stages of developing pattern including initial stage, oscillatory intermediate and finally steady state condition. Implicit Finite Volume Method with TDMA solver is used to solve the governing equations. This study has been performed for the Rayleigh numbers ranging from 100 to 10,000. Outcomes have been reported in terms of isotherms, streamline, velocity and temperature plots and average Nusselt number for various Ra, corrugation frequency and corrugation amplitude. The effects of sudden differential heating and its resultant transient behavior on fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics have been shown for the range of governing parameters. The present results show that the transient phenomena are enormously influenced by the variation of the Rayleigh Number with corrugation amplitude and frequency.

Disaster resilience in tertiary hospitals : a cross-sectional survey in Shandong Province, China

Background: Hospital disaster resilience can be defined as a hospital’s ability to resist, absorb, and respond to the shock of disasters while maintaining critical functions, and then to recover to its original state or adapt to a new one. This study aims to explore the status of resilience among tertiary hospitals in Shandong Province, China. Methods: A stratified random sample (n = 50) was derived from tertiary A, tertiary B, and tertiary C hospitals in Shandong Province, and was surveyed by questionnaire. Data on hospital characteristics and 8 key domains of hospital resilience were collected and analysed. Variables were binary, and analysed using descriptive statistics such as frequencies. Results: A response rate of 82% (n = 41) was attained. Factor analysis identified four key factors from eight domains which appear to reflect the overall level of disaster resilience. These were hospital safety, disaster management mechanisms, disaster resources and disaster medical care capability. The survey demonstrated that in regard to hospital safety, 93% had syndromic surveillance systems for infectious diseases and 68% had evaluated their safety standards. In regard to disaster management mechanisms, all had general plans, while only 20% had specific plans for individual hazards. 49% had a public communication protocol and 43.9% attended the local coordination meetings. In regard to disaster resources, 75.6% and 87.5% stockpiled emergency drugs and materials respectively, while less than a third (30%) had a signed Memorandum of Understanding with other hospitals to share these resources. Finally in regard to medical care, 66% could dispatch an on-site medical rescue team, but only 5% had a ‘portable hospital’ function and 36.6% and 12% of the hospitals could surge their beds and staff capacity respectively. The average beds surge capacity within 1 day was 13%. Conclusions: This study validated the broad utility of a framework for understanding and measuring the level of hospital resilience. The survey demonstrated considerable variability in disaster resilience arrangements of tertiary hospitals in Shandong province, and the difference between tertiary A hospitals and tertiary B hospitals was also identified in essential areas.

STOF Model : critical design issues and critical success factors

In this chapter we will make the transition towards the design of business models and the related critical issues. We develop a model that helps us understand the causalities that play a role in understanding the viability and feasibility of the business models, i.e. long-term profitability and market adoption. We argue that designing viable business models requires balancing the requirements and interests of the actors involved, within and between the various business model domains. Requirements in the service domain guide the design choices in the technology domain, which in turn affect network formation and the financial arrangements. It is important to understand the Critical Design Issues (CDIs) involved in business models and their interdependencies. In this chapter, we present the Critical Design Issues involved in designing mobile service business models, and demonstrate how they are linked to the Critical Success Factors (CSFs) with regard to business model viability. This results in a causal model for understanding business model viability, as well as providing grounding for the business model design approach outlined in Chapter 5.

Modelling of arc welding : the importance of including the arc plasma in the computational domain

We present results of computational simulations of tungsten-inert-gas and metal-inert-gas welding. The arc plasma and the electrodes (including the molten weld pool when necessary) are included self-consistently in the computational domain. It is shown, using three examples, that it would be impossible to accurately estimate the boundary conditions on the weld-pool surface without including the arc plasma in the computational domain. First, we show that the shielding gas composition strongly affects the properties of the arc that influence the weld pool: heat flux density, current density, shear stress and arc pressure at the weld-pool surface. Demixing is found to be important in some cases. Second, the vaporization of the weld-pool metal and the diffusion of the metal vapour into the arc plasma are found to decrease the heat flux density and current density to the weld pool. Finally, we show that the shape of the wire electrode in metal-inert-gas welding has a strong influence on flow velocities in the arc and the pressure and shear stress at the weld-pool surface. In each case, we present evidence that the geometry and depth of the weld pool depend strongly on the properties of the arc.

Fire resistance rating of light gauge steel frame walls exposed to realistic design fires : a review and development of time equivalent approach

This paper presents the details of research undertaken on the development of an energy based time equivalent approach for light gauge steel frame (LSF) walls. This research utilized an energy based time equivalent approach to obtain the fire resistance ratings (FRR) of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fires with respect to standard fire exposure [1]. It is based on the equal area concept of fire severity and relates to the amount of energy transferred to the member. The proposed method was used to predict the fire resistance of single and double plasterboard lined and externally insulated LSF walls. The predicted fire resistance ratings were compared with the results from finite element analyses and fire design rules for three different wall configurations. This paper presents the review of the available time equivalent approaches and the development of energy based time equivalent approach for the prediction of fire resistance ratings of LSF walls exposed to realistic design fires.