Knowledge gain or system benefit in environmental decision making?

The quality of environmental decisions are gauged according to the management objectives of a conservation project. Management objectives are generally about maximising some quantifiable measure of system benefit, for instance population growth rate. They can also be defined in terms of learning about the system in question, in such a case actions would be chosen that maximise knowledge gain, for instance in experimental management sites. Learning about a system can also take place when managing practically. The adaptive management framework (Walters 1986) formally acknowledges this fact by evaluating learning in terms of how it will improve management of the system and therefore future system benefit. This is taken into account when ranking actions using stochastic dynamic programming (SDP). However, the benefits of any management action lie on a spectrum from pure system benefit, when there is nothing to be learned about the system, to pure knowledge gain. The current adaptive management framework does not permit management objectives to evaluate actions over the full range of this spectrum. By evaluating knowledge gain in units distinct to future system benefit this whole spectrum of management objectives can be unlocked. This paper outlines six decision making policies that differ across the spectrum of pure system benefit through to pure learning. The extensions to adaptive management presented allow specification of the relative importance of learning compared to system benefit in management objectives. Such an extension means practitioners can be more specific in the construction of conservation project objectives and be able to create policies for experimental management sites in the same framework as practical management sites.

Managing moose harvests by the seat of your pants

Moose populations are managed for sustainable yield balanced against costs caused by damage to forestry or agriculture and collisions with vehicles. Optimal harvests can be calculated based on a structured population model driven by data on abundance and the composition of bulls, cows, and calves obtained by aerial-survey monitoring during winter. Quotas are established by the respective government agency and licenses are issued to hunters to harvest an animal of specified age or sex during the following autumn. Because the cost of aerial monitoring is high, we use a Management Strategy Evaluation to evaluate the costs and benefits of periodic aerial surveys in the context of moose management. Our on-the-fly "seat of your pants" alternative to independent monitoring is management based solely on the kill of moose by hunters, which is usually sufficient to alert the manager to declines in moose abundance that warrant adjustments to harvest strategies. Harvests are relatively cheap to monitor; therefore, data can be obtained each year facilitating annual adjustments to quotas. Other sources of "cheap" monitoring data such as records of the number of moose seen by hunters while hunting also might be obtained, and may provide further useful insight into population abundance, structure and health. Because conservation dollars are usually limited, the high cost of aerial surveys is difficult to justify when alternative methods exist. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Optimizing search strategies for invasive pests: Learn before you leap

Strategic searching for invasive pests presents a formidable challenge for conservation managers. Limited funding can necessitate choosing between surveying many sites cursorily, or focussing intensively on fewer sites. While existing knowledge may help to target more likely sites, e.g. with species distribution models (maps), this knowledge is not flawless and improving it also requires management investment. 2.In a rare example of trading-off action against knowledge gain, we combine search coverage and accuracy, and its future improvement, within a single optimisation framework. More specifically we examine under which circumstances managers should adopt one of two search-and-control strategies (cursory or focussed), and when they should divert funding to improving knowledge, making better predictive maps that benefit future searches. 3.We use a family of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves to reflect the quality of maps that direct search efforts. We demonstrate our framework by linking these to a logistic model of invasive spread such as that for the red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta in south-east Queensland, Australia. 4.Cursory widespread searching is only optimal if the pest is already widespread or knowledge is poor, otherwise focussed searching exploiting the map is preferable. For longer management timeframes, eradication is more likely if funds are initially devoted to improving knowledge, even if this results in a short-term explosion of the pest population. 5.Synthesis and applications. By combining trade-offs between knowledge acquisition and utilization, managers can better focus - and justify - their spending to achieve optimal results in invasive control efforts. This framework can improve the efficiency of any ecological management that relies on predicting occurrence. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology © 2010 British Ecological Society.

Robust conservation decision-making

Decision-making for conservation is conducted within the margins of limited funding. Furthermore, to allocate these scarce resources we make assumptions about the relationship between management impact and expenditure. The structure of these relationships, however, is rarely known with certainty. We present a summary of work investigating the impact of model uncertainty on robust decision-making in conservation and how this is affected by available conservation funding. We show that achieving robustness in conservation decisions can require a triage approach, and emphasize the need for managers to consider triage not as surrendering but as rational decision making to ensure species persistence in light of the urgency of the conservation problems, uncertainty, and the poor state of conservation funding. We illustrate this theory by a specific application to allocation of funding to reduce poaching impact on the Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae in Kerinci Seblat National Park, Indonesia. To conserve our environment, conservation managers must make decisions in the face of substantial uncertainty. Further, they must deal with the fact that limitations in budgets and temporal constraints have led to a lack of knowledge on the systems we are trying to preserve and on the benefits of the actions we have available (Balmford & Cowling 2006). Given this paucity of decision-informing data there is a considerable need to assess the impact of uncertainty on the benefit of management options (Regan et al. 2005). Although models of management impact can improve decision making (e.g.Tenhumberg et al. 2004), they typically rely on assumptions around which there is substantial uncertainty. Ignoring this 'model uncertainty', can lead to inferior decision-making (Regan et al. 2005), and potentially, the loss of the species we are trying to protect. Current methods used in ecology allow model uncertainty to be incorporated into the model selection process (Burnham & Anderson 2002; Link & Barker 2006), but do not enable decision-makers to assess how this uncertainty would change a decision. This is the basis of information-gap decision theory (info-gap); finding strategies most robust to model uncertainty (Ben-Haim 2006). Info-gap has permitted conservation biology to make the leap from recognizing uncertainty to explicitly incorporating severe uncertainty into decision-making. In this paper we present a summary of McDonald-Madden et al (2008a) who use an info-gap framework to address the impact of uncertainty in the functional representations of biological systems on conservation decision-making. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of two key elements limiting conservation decision-making - funding and knowledge - and how they interact to influence the best management strategy for a threatened species. Copyright © ASCE 2011.

Process variability of pollutant build-up on urban road surfaces

Knowledge of the pollutant build-up process is a key requirement for developing stormwater pollution mitigation strategies. In this context, process variability is a concept which needs to be understood in-depth. Analysis of particulate build-up on three road surfaces in an urban catchment confirmed that particles <150µm and >150µm have characteristically different build-up patterns, and these patterns are consistent over different field conditions. Three theoretical build-up patterns were developed based on the size-fractionated particulate build-up patterns, and these patterns explain the variability in particle behavior and the variation in particle-bound pollutant load and composition over the antecedent dry period. Behavioral variability of particles <150µm was found to exert the most significant influence on the build-up process variability. As characterization of process variability is particularly important in stormwater quality modeling, it is recommended that the influence of behavioral variability of particles <150µm on pollutant build-up should be specifically addressed. This would eliminate model deficiencies in the replication of the build-up process and facilitate the accounting of the inherent process uncertainty, and thereby enhance the water quality predictions.

Catalytic activity evaluation of industrial Pd/C catalyst via gray-box dynamic modeling and simulation of hydropurification reactor

In this paper, dynamic modeling and simulation of the hydropurification reactor in a purified terephthalic acid production plant has been investigated by gray-box technique to evaluate the catalytic activity of palladium supported on carbon (0.5 wt.% Pd/C) catalyst. The reaction kinetics and catalyst deactivation trend have been modeled by employing artificial neural network (ANN). The network output has been incorporated with the reactor first principle model (FPM). The simulation results reveal that the gray-box model (FPM and ANN) is about 32 percent more accurate than FPM. The model demonstrates that the catalyst is deactivated after eleven months. Moreover, the catalyst lifetime decreases about two and half months in case of 7 percent increase of reactor feed flowrate. It is predicted that 10 percent enhancement of hydrogen flowrate promotes catalyst lifetime at the amount of one month. Additionally, the enhancement of 4-carboxybenzaldehyde concentration in the reactor feed improves CO and benzoic acid synthesis. CO is a poison to the catalyst, and benzoic acid might affect the product quality. The model can be applied into actual working plants to analyze the Pd/C catalyst efficient functioning and the catalytic reactor performance.

Promoting pro-environmental action in climate change deniers

A sizeable (and growing) proportion of the public in Western democracies deny the existence of anthropogenic climate change. It is commonly assumed that convincing deniers that climate change is real is necessary for them to act pro-environmentally. However, the likelihood of ‘conversion’ using scientific evidence is limited because these attitudes increasingly reflect ideological positions. An alternative approach is to identify outcomes of mitigation efforts that deniers find important. People have strong interests in the welfare of their society, so deniers may act in ways supporting mitigation efforts where they believe these efforts will have positive societal effects. In Study 1, climate change deniers (N D 155) intended to act more pro-environmentally where they thought climate change action would create a society where people are more considerate and caring, and where there is greater economic/technological development. Study 2 (ND347) replicated this experimentally, showing that framing climate change action as increasing consideration for others, or improving economic/technological development, led to greater pro-environmental action intentions than a frame emphasizing avoiding the risks of climate change. To motivate deniers’ pro-environmental actions, communication should focus on how mitigation efforts can promote a better society, rather than focusing on the reality of climate change and averting its risks.

Understanding the behavior of workshop facilitators in systems analysis and design projects: Developing theory from process modeling projects

Organizational and technological systems analysis and design practices such as process modeling have received much attention in recent years. However, while knowledge about related artifacts such as models, tools, or grammars has substantially matured, little is known about the actual tasks and interaction activities that are conducted as part of analysis and design acts. In particular, key role of the facilitator has not been researched extensively to date. In this paper, we propose a new conceptual framework that can be used to examine facilitation behaviors in process modeling projects. The framework distinguishes four behavioral styles in facilitation (the driving engineer, the driving artist, the catalyzing engineer, and the catalyzing artist) that a facilitator can adopt. To distinguish between the four styles, we provide a set of ten behavioral anchors that underpin facilitation behaviors. We also report on a preliminary empirical exploration of our framework through interviews with experienced analysts in six modeling cases. Our research provides a conceptual foundation for an emerging theory for describing and explaining different behaviors associated with process modeling facilitation, provides first preliminary empirical results about facilitation in modeling projects, and provides a fertile basis for examining facilitation in other conceptual modeling activities.

Environmental conditions are important for establishing and evaluating pre-clinical models of GVHD

GVHD remains the major complication of allo-HSCT. Murine models are the primary system used to understand GVHD, and to develop potential therapies. Several factors are critical for GVHD in these models; including histo- compatibility, conditioning regimen, and T-cell number. We serendipitously found that environmental factors such as the caging system and bedding also significantly impact the kinetics of GVHD in these models. This is important because such factors may influence the experimental conditions required to cause GVHD and how mice respond to various treatments. Consequently, this is likely to alter interpretation of results between research groups, and the perceived effectiveness of experimental therapies.

Numerical modeling of railway track supporting system using finite–infinite and thin layer elements

The present contribution deals with the numerical modelling of railway track-supporting systems-using coupled finite-infinite elements-to represent the near and distant field stress distribution, and also employing a thin layer interface element to account for the interfacial behaviour between sleepers and ballast. To simulate the relative debonding, slipping and crushing at the contact area between sleepers and ballast, a modified Mohr-Coulomb criterion was adopted. Further more an attempt was made to consider the elasto plastic materials’ non-linearity of the railway track supporting media by employing different constitutive models to represent steel, concrete and other supporting materials. It is seen that during an incremental-iterative mode of load application, the yielding initially started from the edge of the sleepers and then flowed vertically downwards and spread towards the centre of the railway supporting system.

Modeling and control of a 3500 tonne mining robot

Draglines are extremely large machines that are widely used in open-cut coal mines for overburden stripping. Since 1994 we have been working toward the development of a computer control system capable of automatically driving a dragline for a large portion of its operating cycle. This has necessitated the development and experimental evaluation of sensor systems, machines models, closed-loop control controllers, and an operator interface. This paper describes our steps toward the goal through scale-model and full-scale field experimentation.

Modeling and control of a robotic power line inspection vehicle

Power line inspection is a vital function for electricity supply companies but it involves labor-intensive and expensive procedures which are tedious and error-prone for humans to perform. A possible solution is to use an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) equipped with video surveillance equipment to perform the inspection. This paper considers how a small, electrically driven rotorcraft conceived for this application could be controlled by visually tracking the overhead supply lines. A dynamic model for a ducted-fan rotorcraft is presented and used to control the action of an Air Vehicle Simulator (AVS), consisting of a cable-array robot. Results show how visual data can be used to determine, and hence regulate in closed loop, the simulated vehicle’s position relative to the overhead lines.

Response of segmented bored transit tunnels to surface blast

Increasing threat of terrorism highlights the importance of enhancing the resilience of underground tunnels to all hazards. This paper develops, applies and compares the Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) and Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) techniques to treat the response of buried tunnels to surface explosions. The results and outcomes of the two techniques were compared, along with results from existing test data. The comparison shows that the ALE technique is a better method for describing the tunnel response for above ground explosion with regards to modeling accuracy and computational efficiency. The ALE technique was then applied to treat the blast response of different types of segmented bored tunnels buried in dry sand. Results indicate that the most used modern ring type segmented tunnels were more flexible for in-plane response, however, they suffered permanent drifts between the rings. Hexagonal segmented tunnels responded with negligible drifts in the longitudinal direction, but the magnitudes of in-plane drifts were large and hence hazardous for the tunnel. Interlocking segmented tunnels suffered from permanent drifts in both the longitudinal and transverse directions. Multi-surface radial joints in both the hexagonal and interlocking segments affected the flexibility of the tunnel in the transverse direction. The findings offer significant new information in the behavior of segmented bored tunnels to guide their future implementation in civil engineering applications.

Socio-environmental drivers and suicide in Australia: Bayesian spatial analysis

Background The impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide has been examined in many studies. Few of them, however, have explored these associations from a spatial perspective, especially in assessing the association between meteorological factors and suicide. This study examined the association of meteorological and socio-demographic factors with suicide across small areas over different time periods. Methods Suicide, population and socio-demographic data (e.g., population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (ATSI), and unemployment rate (UNE) at the Local Government Area (LGA) level were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period of 1986 to 2005. Information on meteorological factors (rainfall, temperature and humidity) was supplied by Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) Model was applied to explore the association of socio-demographic and meteorological factors with suicide across LGAs. Results In Model I (socio-demographic factors), proportion of ATSI and UNE were positively associated with suicide from 1996 to 2000 (Relative Risk (RR)ATSI = 1.0107, 95% Credible Interval (CI): 1.0062-1.0151; RRUNE = 1.0187, 95% CI: 1.0060-1.0315), and from 2001 to 2005 (RRATSI = 1.0126, 95% CI: 1.0076-1.0176; RRUNE = 1.0198, 95% CI: 1.0041-1.0354). Socio-Economic Index for Area (SEIFA) and IND, however, had negative associations with suicide between 1986 and 1990 (RRSEIFA = 0.9983, 95% CI: 0.9971-0.9995; RRATSI = 0.9914, 95% CI: 0.9848-0.9980). Model II (meteorological factors): a 1°C higher yearly mean temperature across LGAs increased the suicide rate by an average by 2.27% (95% CI: 0.73%, 3.82%) in 1996–2000, and 3.24% (95% CI: 1.26%, 5.21%) in 2001–2005. The associations between socio-demographic factors and suicide in Model III (socio-demographic and meteorological factors) were similar to those in Model I; but, there is no substantive association between climate and suicide in Model III. Conclusions Proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, unemployment and temperature appeared to be statistically associated with of suicide incidence across LGAs among all selected variables, especially in recent years. The results indicated that socio-demographic factors played more important roles than meteorological factors in the spatial pattern of suicide incidence.

Affordances of ICTs: an environmental study of a French language unit offered at university level

This project investigates the integration of Information Communication Technologies (ICTs) into educational settings by closely looking at the uptake of the perceived affordances offered by ICTs by students enrolled in a French language course at Queensland University of Technology. This cross-disciplinary research uses the theoretical concepts of: Ecological Psychology (Gibson, 1979; Good, 2007; Reed, 1996); Ecological Linguistics (Greeno, 1994; Leather & van Dam, 2003; van Lier 2000, 2003, 2004a, 2004b); Design (Norman, 1988, 1999); Software Design/ Human-Computer Interaction (Hartson, 2003; McGrenere & Ho, 2000); Learning Design (Conole & Dyke, 2004a, 2004b; Laurillard et al. 2000;); Education (Kirschner, 2002; Salomon, 1993; Wijekumar et al., 2006) and Educational Psychology (Greeno, 1994). In order to investigate this subject, the following research questions, rooted in the theoretical foundations of the thesis, were formulated: (1) What are the learners’ attitudes towards the ICT tools used in the project?; (2) What are the affordances offered by ICTs used in a specific French language course at university level from the perspective of the teacher and from the perspective of language learners?; (3) What affordances offered by ICT tools used by the teacher within the specific teaching and learning environment have been taken up by learners?; and (4) What factors influence the uptake by learners of the affordances created by ICT tools used by the teacher within the specific teaching and learning environment? The teaching phase of this project, conducted between 2006 and 2008, used Action Research procedures (Hopkins, 2002; McNiff & Whitehead, 2002; van Lier 1994) as a research framework. The data were collected using the following combination of qualitative and quantitative methods: (1) questionnaires administered to students (Hopkins, 2002; McNiff & Whitehead, 2002) using Likert-scale questions, open questions, yes/no questions; (2) partnership classroom observations of research participants conducted by Research Participant Advocates (Hopkins, 2002; McNiff & Whitehead, 2002); and (3) a focus group with volunteering students who participated in the unit (semi-structured interview) (Hopkins, 2002; McNiff & Whitehead, 2002). The data analysis confirms the importance of a careful examination of the teaching and learning environment and reveals differences in the ways in which the opportunities for an action offered by the ICTs were perceived by teacher and students, which impacted on the uptake of affordances. The author applied the model of affordance, as described by Good (2007), to explain these differences and to investigate their consequences. In conclusion, the teacher-researcher considers that the discrepancies in perceiving the affordances result from the disparities between the frames of reference and the functional contexts of the teacher-researcher and students. Based on the results of the data analysis, a series of recommendations is formulated supporting calls for careful analysis of frames of reference and the functional contexts of all participants in the learning and teaching process. The author also suggests a modified model of affordance, outlining the important characteristics of its constituents.