Random propagation in complex systems : nonlinear matrix recursions and epidemic spread

This dissertation studies long-term behavior of random Riccati recursions and mathematical epidemic model. Riccati recursions are derived from Kalman filtering. The error covariance matrix of Kalman filtering satisfies Riccati recursions. Convergence condition of time-invariant Riccati recursions are well-studied by researchers. We focus on time-varying case, and assume that regressor matrix is random and identical and independently distributed according to given distribution whose probability distribution function is continuous, supported on whole space, and decaying faster than any polynomial. We study the geometric convergence of the probability distribution. We also study the global dynamics of the epidemic spread over complex networks for various models. For instance, in the discrete-time Markov chain model, each node is either healthy or infected at any given time. In this setting, the number of the state increases exponentially as the size of the network increases. The Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution where all the nodes are healthy with probability 1. Since the probability distribution of Markov chain defined on finite state converges to the stationary distribution, this Markov chain model concludes that epidemic disease dies out after long enough time. To analyze the Markov chain model, we study nonlinear epidemic model whose state at any given time is the vector obtained from the marginal probability of infection of each node in the network at that time. Convergence to the origin in the epidemic map implies the extinction of epidemics. The nonlinear model is upper-bounded by linearizing the model at the origin. As a result, the origin is the globally stable unique fixed point of the nonlinear model if the linear upper bound is stable. The nonlinear model has a second fixed point when the linear upper bound is unstable. We work on stability analysis of the second fixed point for both discrete-time and continuous-time models. Returning back to the Markov chain model, we claim that the stability of linear upper bound for nonlinear model is strongly related with the extinction time of the Markov chain. We show that stable linear upper bound is sufficient condition of fast extinction and the probability of survival is bounded by nonlinear epidemic map.

High-strain composites and dual-matrix composite structures

Most space applications require deployable structures due to the limiting size of current launch vehicles. Specifically, payloads in nanosatellites such as CubeSats require very high compaction ratios due to the very limited space available in this typo of platform. Strain-energy-storing deployable structures can be suitable for these applications, but the curvature to which these structures can be folded is limited to the elastic range. Thanks to fiber microbuckling, high-strain composite materials can be folded into much higher curvatures without showing significant damage, which makes them suitable for very high compaction deployable structure applications. However, in applications that require carrying loads in compression, fiber microbuckling also dominates the strength of the material. A good understanding of the strength in compression of high-strain composites is then needed to determine how suitable they are for this type of application.

The goal of this thesis is to investigate, experimentally and numerically, the microbuckling in compression of high-strain composites. Particularly, the behavior in compression of unidirectional carbon fiber reinforced silicone rods (CFRS) is studied. Experimental testing of the compression failure of CFRS rods showed a higher strength in compression than the strength estimated by analytical models, which is unusual in standard polymer composites. This effect, first discovered in the present research, was attributed to the variation in random carbon fiber angles respect to the nominal direction. This is an important effect, as it implies that microbuckling strength might be increased by controlling the fiber angles. With a higher microbuckling strength, high-strain materials could carry loads in compression without reaching microbuckling and therefore be suitable for several space applications.

A finite element model was developed to predict the homogenized stiffness of the CFRS, and the homogenization results were used in another finite element model that simulated a homogenized rod under axial compression. A statistical representation of the fiber angles was implemented in the model. The presence of fiber angles increased the longitudinal shear stiffness of the material, resulting in a higher strength in compression. The simulations showed a large increase of the strength in compression for lower values of the standard deviation of the fiber angle, and a slight decrease of strength in compression for lower values of the mean fiber angle. The strength observed in the experiments was achieved with the minimum local angle standard deviation observed in the CFRS rods, whereas the shear stiffness measured in torsion tests was achieved with the overall fiber angle distribution observed in the CFRS rods.

High strain composites exhibit good bending capabilities, but they tend to be soft out-of-plane. To achieve a higher out-of-plane stiffness, the concept of dual-matrix composites is introduced. Dual-matrix composites are foldable composites which are soft in the crease regions and stiff elsewhere. Previous attempts to fabricate continuous dual-matrix fiber composite shells had limited performance due to excessive resin flow and matrix mixing. An alternative method, presented in this thesis uses UV-cure silicone and fiberglass to avoid these problems. Preliminary experiments on the effect of folding on the out-of-plane stiffness are presented. An application to a conical log-periodic antenna for CubeSats is proposed, using origami-inspired stowing schemes, that allow a conical dual-matrix composite shell to reach very high compaction ratios.

Synthesis and matrix isolated photolysis of 2,3-dimethylbicyclo [2.2.0]hexa-2,5-diene-1,4-dicarboxylic acid anhydride: a potential percursor to 2,3-dimethyl-1,4-dehydrobenzene

The synthesis of the first member of a new class of Dewar benzenes has been achieved. The synthesis of 2,3- dimethylbicyclo[2.2.0]hexa-2,5-diene-1, 4-dicarboxylic acid and its anhydride are described. Dibromomaleic anhydride and dichloroethylene were found to add efficiently in a photochemical [2+2] cycloaddition to produce 1,2-dibromo- 3,4-dichlorocyclobutane-1,2-dicarboxylic acid. Removal of the bromines with tin/copper couple yielded dichloro- cyclobutenes which added to 2-butyne under photochemical conditions to yield 5,6-dichloro-2,3-dimethylbicyclo [2.2.0] hex-2-ene dicarboxylic acids. One of the three possible isomers yielded a stable anhydride which could be dechlorinated using triphenyltin radicals generated by the photolysis of hexaphenylditin.

Photolysis of argon matrix isolated 2,3-dimethylbicyclo [2.2.0]hexa-2, 5-diene-1,4-dicarboxylic acid anhydride produced traces whose strongest bands in the infrared were at 3350 and 600 cm^(-1). This suggested the formation of terminal acetylenes. The spectra of argon matrix isolated E- and Z- 3,4-dimethylhexa-1,5-diyne-3-ene and cis-and trans-octa- 2,6-diyne-4-ene were compared with the spectrum of the photolysis products. Possibly all four diethynylethylenes were present in the anhydride photolysis products. Gas chromatograph-mass spectral analysis of the volatiles from the anhydride photolysis again suggested, but did not confirm, the presence of the diethynylethylenes.

Neural and computational representations of decision variables

These studies explore how, where, and when representations of variables critical to decision-making are represented in the brain. In order to produce a decision, humans must first determine the relevant stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes before applying an algorithm that will select an action from those available. When choosing amongst alternative stimuli, the framework of value-based decision-making proposes that values are assigned to the stimuli and that these values are then compared in an abstract “value space” in order to produce a decision. Despite much progress, in particular regarding the pinpointing of ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) as a region that encodes the value, many basic questions remain. In Chapter 2, I show that distributed BOLD signaling in vmPFC represents the value of stimuli under consideration in a manner that is independent of the type of stimulus it is. Thus the open question of whether value is represented in abstraction, a key tenet of value-based decision-making, is confirmed. However, I also show that stimulus-dependent value representations are also present in the brain during decision-making and suggest a potential neural pathway for stimulus-to-value transformations that integrates these two results.

More broadly speaking, there is both neural and behavioral evidence that two distinct control systems are at work during action selection. These two systems compose the “goal-directed system”, which selects actions based on an internal model of the environment, and the “habitual” system, which generates responses based on antecedent stimuli only. Computational characterizations of these two systems imply that they have different informational requirements in terms of input stimuli, actions, and possible outcomes. Associative learning theory predicts that the habitual system should utilize stimulus and action information only, while goal-directed behavior requires that outcomes as well as stimuli and actions be processed. In Chapter 3, I test whether areas of the brain hypothesized to be involved in habitual versus goal-directed control represent the corresponding theorized variables.

The question of whether one or both of these neural systems drives Pavlovian conditioning is less well-studied. Chapter 4 describes an experiment in which subjects were scanned while engaged in a Pavlovian task with a simple non-trivial structure. After comparing a variety of model-based and model-free learning algorithms (thought to underpin goal-directed and habitual decision-making, respectively), it was found that subjects’ reaction times were better explained by a model-based system. In addition, neural signaling of precision, a variable based on a representation of a world model, was found in the amygdala. These data indicate that the influence of model-based representations of the environment can extend even to the most basic learning processes.

Knowledge of the state of hidden variables in an environment is required for optimal inference regarding the abstract decision structure of a given environment and therefore can be crucial to decision-making in a wide range of situations. Inferring the state of an abstract variable requires the generation and manipulation of an internal representation of beliefs over the values of the hidden variable. In Chapter 5, I describe behavioral and neural results regarding the learning strategies employed by human subjects in a hierarchical state-estimation task. In particular, a comprehensive model fit and comparison process pointed to the use of "belief thresholding". This implies that subjects tended to eliminate low-probability hypotheses regarding the state of the environment from their internal model and ceased to update the corresponding variables. Thus, in concert with incremental Bayesian learning, humans explicitly manipulate their internal model of the generative process during hierarchical inference consistent with a serial hypothesis testing strategy.

A variational framework for spectral discretization of the density matrix in Kohn Sham density functional theory

Kohn-Sham density functional theory (KSDFT) is currently the main work-horse of quantum mechanical calculations in physics, chemistry, and materials science. From a mechanical engineering perspective, we are interested in studying the role of defects in the mechanical properties in materials. In real materials, defects are typically found at very small concentrations e.g., vacancies occur at parts per million, dislocation density in metals ranges from $10^{10} m^{-2}$ to $10^{15} m^{-2}$, and grain sizes vary from nanometers to micrometers in polycrystalline materials, etc. In order to model materials at realistic defect concentrations using DFT, we would need to work with system sizes beyond millions of atoms. Due to the cubic-scaling computational cost with respect to the number of atoms in conventional DFT implementations, such system sizes are unreachable. Since the early 1990s, there has been a huge interest in developing DFT implementations that have linear-scaling computational cost. A promising approach to achieving linear-scaling cost is to approximate the density matrix in KSDFT. The focus of this thesis is to provide a firm mathematical framework to study the convergence of these approximations. We reformulate the Kohn-Sham density functional theory as a nested variational problem in the density matrix, the electrostatic potential, and a field dual to the electron density. The corresponding functional is linear in the density matrix and thus amenable to spectral representation. Based on this reformulation, we introduce a new approximation scheme, called spectral binning, which does not require smoothing of the occupancy function and thus applies at arbitrarily low temperatures. We proof convergence of the approximate solutions with respect to spectral binning and with respect to an additional spatial discretization of the domain. For a standard one-dimensional benchmark problem, we present numerical experiments for which spectral binning exhibits excellent convergence characteristics and outperforms other linear-scaling methods.

Essays in Behavioral Decision Theory

This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.

MODIFIED DIRECT TWOS-COMPLEMENT PARALLEL ARRAY MULTIPLICATION ALGORITHM FOR COMPLEX MATRIX OPERATION

A direct twos-complement parallel array multiplication algorithm is introduced and modified for digital optical numerical computation. The modified version overcomes the problems encountered in the conventional optical twos-complement algorithm. In the array, all the summands are generated in parallel, and the relevant summands having the same weights are added simultaneously without carries, resulting in the product expressed in a mixed twos-complement system. In a two-stage array, complex multiplication is possible with using four real subarrays. Furthermore, with a three-stage array architecture, complex matrix operation is straightforwardly accomplished. In the experiment, parallel two-stage array complex multiplication with liquid-crystal panels is demonstrated.

MODIFIED ENGAGEMENT METHOD FOR MATRIX OPERATION

We describe a modified engagement method for matrix operation based on a two-dimensional crossed-ring interconnection network, Our method incorporates fewer steps than that reported by Bocker et al. [Appl. Opt. 22, 804 (1983)], and its performance is found to be the most efficient (minimum steps) in comparison with other systolic and/or engagement methods for matrix operation. Thus, it may be helpful for other optical and electronic implementations of matrix operations. One compact optoelectronic integrity approach for implementing the modified engagement method is briefly described. (C) 1995 Optical Society of America