The changing relationship between commodity prices and equity prices in commodity exporting

We explore the linkage between equity and commodity markets, focusing in particular on its evolution over time. We document that a country's equity market valuehas significant out-of-sample predictive ability for the future global commodity priceindex for several primary commodity-exporting countries. The out-of-sample predictive ability of the equity market appears around 2000s. The results are robust to usingseveral control variables as well as firm-level equity data. Finally, our results indicatethat exchange rates are a better predictor of commodity prices than equity markets,especially at very short horizons.

Infections and functionnal impairment in nursing home residents : a reciprocal relationship

RESUME: Contexte : l'objectif de cette étude de cohorte prospective était de déterminer la relation entre la survenue d'infections et la dépendance fonctionnelle chez des résidents d'établissements de long séjour durant une période de 6 mois. Population et méthode : les patients inclus (1324 résidents) étaient âgés de 65 ans et plus (âge moyen 85.7 ans, 76.6% de femmes), étaient des résidents de 39 EMS du canton de Vaud. Au baseline, des données démographiques, médicales, concernant les facteurs de risque et protecteurs des infections ont été récoltées. Au cours du suivi de 6 mois, les infirmières des EMS ont documenté la survenue de symptômes et signes d'infection en utilisant les critères développés spécifiquement par l'APIC pour les établissements de long séjour. Les mesures du status fonctionnel ont été évaluées au baseline, à 3 mois et à 6 mois. Deux outcomes différents ont été utilisés : a) le déclin fonctionnel défini comme le décès ou une diminution des capacités fonctionnelles au suivi, b) le status fonctionnel mesuré par une échelle standardisée. Résultats : à la fin du suivi, la mortalité était de 14.6%, similaire pour les résidents avec et sans infection (16.2% versus 13.1%, P .11). Durant les 2 périodes de suivi de 3 mois, les sujets ayant présenté une ou plusieurs infections avaient des odds de déclin fonctionnel plus élevés, y compris après ajustement pour les caractéristiques démographiques, médicales et fonctionnelles du baseline, ainsi que la survenue de nouvelles maladies (odds ratio ajustés (OR) = 1.6, intervalle de confiance à 95% (IC) = 1.2-2.2, P = .002 et OR = 1.5, 95% IC= 1.1-2.0, P= .008, respectivement). Comparés aux résidents non infectés, les odds de déclin fonctionnel augmentaient significativement et graduellement chez ceux ayant eu une, respectivement 2 infections ou plus. L'analyse prédisant le score fonctionnel (restreinte aux sujets ayant survécu) a donné des résultats similaires. Finalement, une analyse de survie prédisant le temps jusqu'à la première infection a confirmé une augmentation progressive de la probabilité d'infection chez les sujets avec dépendance fonctionnelle modérée, respectivement sévère, comparés aux sujets indépendants à la ligne de base. Conclusion : chez les résidents de long séjour, les infections sont à la fois cause et conséquence de la dépendance fonctionnelle. Des études futures devraient être entreprises pour investiguer si des programmes de prévention des infections peuvent également contribuer à prévenir le déclin fonctionnel, un facteur important pour la qualité de vie de ces résidents. ABSTRACT: Objectives: To determine the relationship between infections and functional impairment in nursing home residents. Design: Prospective cohort study (follow-up period, 6 months). Setting: Thirty-nine nursing homes in western Switzerland. Participants: A total of 1,324 residents aged 65 and older (mean age 85.7; 76.6% female) who agreed to participate, or their proxies, by oral informed consent. Measurements: Functional status measured every 3 months. Two different outcomes were used: (a) functional decline defined as death or decreased function at follow-up and (b) functional status score using a standardized measure. Results: At the end of follow-up, mortality was 14.6%, not different for those with and without infection (16.2% vs 13.1%, P= .11) During both 3-month periods, subjects with infection had higher odds of functional decline, even after adjustment for baseline characteristics and occurrence of a new illness (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-2.2, P = .002, and AOR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.0, P .008, respectively). The odds of decline increased in a stepwise fashion in patients with zero, one, and two or more infections. The analyses predicting functional status score (restricted to subjects who survived) gave similar results. A survival analysis predicting time to first infection confirmed a stepwise greater likelihood of infection in subjects -with moderate and severe impairment at baseline than in subjects with no or mild functional impairment at baseline. Conclusion: Infections appear to be both a cause and a consequence of functional impairment in nursing home residents. Further studies should be undertaken to investigate whether effective infection control programs can also contribute to preventing functional decline, an important component of these residents' quality of life.

Adsorption of glyphosate in chilean soils and its relationship with unoccupied phosphate binding sites

The objective of this work was to investigate glyphosate adsorption by soils and its relationship with unoccupied binding sites for phosphate adsorption. Soil samples of three Chilean soils series - Valdivia (Andisol), Clarillo (Inceptisol) and Chicureo (Vertisol) - were incubated with different herbicide concentrations. Glyphosate remaining in solution was determined by adjusting a HPLC method with a UV detector. Experimental maximum adsorption capacity were 15,000, 14,300 and 4,700 mg g¹ for Valdivia, Clarillo, and Chicureo soils, respectively. Linear, Freundlich, and Langmuir models were used to describe glyphosate adsorption. Isotherms describing glyphosate adsorption differed among soils. Maximum adjusted adsorption capacity with the Langmuir model was 231,884, 17,874 and 5,670 mg g-1 for Valdivia, Clarillo, and Chicureo soils, respectively. Glyphosate adsorption on the Valdivia soil showed a linear behavior at the range of concentrations used and none of the adjusted models became asymptotic. The high glyphosate adsorption capacity of the Valdivia soil was probably a result of its high exchangeable Al, extractable Fe, and alophan and imogolite clay type. Adsorption was very much related to phosphate dynamics in the Valdivia soil, which showed the larger unoccupied phosphate binding sites. However relationship between unoccupied phosphate binding sites and glyphosate adsorption in the other two soils (Clarillo and Chicureo) was not clear.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

An evolutionary analysis of the relationship between spite and altruism.

We investigate the selective pressures on a social trait when evolution occurs in a population of constant size. We show that any social trait that is spiteful simultaneously qualifies as altruistic. In other words, any trait that reduces the fitness of less related individuals necessarily increases that of related ones. Our analysis demonstrates that the distinction between "Hamiltonian spite" and "Wilsonian spite" is not justified on the basis of fitness effects. We illustrate this general result with an explicit model for the evolution of a social act that reduces the recipient's survival ("harming trait"). This model shows that the evolution of harming is favoured if local demes are of small size and migration is low (philopatry). Further, deme size and migration rate determine whether harming evolves as a selfish strategy by increasing the fitness of the actor, or as a spiteful/altruistic strategy through its positive effect on the fitness of close kin.

The adjective petit 'small, little' in French acquisition data: an example of the relationship between pragmatics and morphosyntactic development

In French the adjective petit 'small, little' has a special status: it fulfills various pragmatic functions in addition to semantic meanings and it is thus highly frequent in discourse. Résumé: This study, based on the data of two children, aged 1;6 to 2;11, argues that petit and its pragmatic meanings play a specific role in the acquisition of French adjectives. In contrast to what is expected in child language, petit favours the early development of a pattern of noun phrase with prenominal attributive adjective. The emergence and distribution of petit in the children's production is examined and related to its distribution in the input, and the detailed pragmatic meanings and functions of petit are analysed. Prenominal petit emerges early as the preferred and most productive adjective. Pragmatic meanings of petit appear to be predominant in this early age and are of two main types: expressions of endearment (in noun phrases) and mitigating devices whose scope is the entire utterance. These results, as well as instances of children's pragmatic overgeneralizations, provide new evidence that at least some pragmatic meanings are prior to semantic meanings in early acquisition.

Relationship between grain colour and preharvest sprouting-resistance in wheat

Since red alleles (R) of the genes that control grain colour are important for the improvement of preharvest sprouting resistance in wheat and there are three independently inherited loci, on chromosomes 3A, 3B and 3D of hexaploid wheat, it is possible to vary the dosage of dominant alleles in a breeding program. The objective of this work was to evaluate the dosage effect of R genes on preharvest sprouting, in a single seed descent population, named TRL, derived from the cross between Timgalen, white-grained wheat, and RL 4137, red-grained wheat. The study was carried out using sprouting data in ripe ears obtained under artificial conditions in a rainfall simulator over three years. According to the results there is a significant effect on preharvest sprouting provided by colour and a weaker effect of increasing R dosage. However, the significant residual genotypic variation between red lines and all lines (reds and whites) at 0.1% level showed that preharvest sprouting was also controlled by other genes. There are no significant correlations between sprouting and date of ripeness or between ripeness, R dosage and colour intensity.

Food Indicators and Their Relationship with 10 to 12 Year-olds' Subjective Well-Being

This study aimed to test subjective indicators designed to analyze the role food plays in children’s lives, explore children’s personal well-being, and evaluate the relationship between these two phenomena. It was conducted on 371 children aged 10 to 12 by means of a selfadministered questionnaire. Results showed a marked interest in food on the part of children, who consider taste and health the most important indicators when it comes to eating. They demonstrated a high level of personal well-being, measured using Cummins & Lau’s adapted version of the Personal Well- Being Index–School Children (PWI-SC) (2005), overall life satisfaction (OLS) and satisfaction with various life domains (friends, family, sports, food and body). Regression models were conducted to explain satisfaction with food, taking as independent variables the interest children have in food, the importance they give to different reasons for eating, scores from the PWI-SC, OLS and satisfaction with various life domains. In the final model, it was found that OLS, health indicators, satisfaction with health from the PWI-SC and satisfaction with your body contribute to explaining satisfaction with food. The results obtained suggest that satisfaction with food is a relevant indicator in the exploration of children’s subjective well-being, calling into question the widespread belief that these aspects are of exclusive interest to adults. They also seem to reinforce the importance of including food indicators in any study aimed at exploring the well-being of the 10 to 12 year-old population.

Stereoselective metabolism of citalopram in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid of depressive patients: relationship with 5-HIAA in CSF and clinical response.

Plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) concentrations of the enantiomers of citalopram (CIT), its N-demethylated metabolite demethylcitalopram (DCIT) and its deaminated metabolite citalopram propionic acid derivative (CIT-PROP) were measured in plasma and CSF in 22 depressed patients after a 4-week treatment with 40 mg/d citalopram, which was preceded by a 1-week washout period. CSF 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA) and homovanillic acid (HVA) were measured at baseline and after the 4-week CIT medication period. Patients were assessed clinically, using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (21-item HAM-D): at baseline and then at weekly intervals. CSF concentrations of S-CIT and R-CIT were 10.6 +/- 4.3 and 20.9 +/- 6 ng/mL, respectively, and their CSF/plasma ratios were 52% +/- 9% and 48% +/- 6%, respectively. The CIT treatment resulted in a significant decrease (28%) of 5-HIAA (P < 0.0001) and a significant increase (41%) of HVA in the CSF. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify the impact of plasma and CSF CIT enantiomers and its metabolites on CSF monoamine metabolites and clinical response. There were 10 responders as defined by a > or =50% decrease of the HAM-D score (DeltaHAM-D) after the 4-week treatment. DeltaHAM-D correlated (Spearman) significantly with CSF S-CIT (r = - 0.483, P < 0.05), CSF S-CIT-PROP (r = -0.543, P = 0.01) (a metabolite formed from CIT by monoamine oxidase [MAO]) and 5-HIAA decrease (Delta5-HIAA) (r = 0.572, P = 0.01). The demonstrated correlations between pharmacokinetic parameters and the clinical outcome as well as 5-HIAA changes indicate that monitoring of plasma S-CIT, CSF S-CIT and CSF S-CIT-PROP may be of clinical relevance.

Relationship of Carbonate Aggregates to Concrete Aging, HR-116, 1967

HR-116 is concerned with the relationship of carbonate aggregate to aging of highway concrete. The ultimate purpose of the research is to provide the Materials Department with better criteria for selection of carbonate aggregates for use in highway concrete. The research stems from the problem in Iowa which relates durability of highway concrete to use of certain aggregates. Service records of certain highways have shown that concrete deterioration is related to the source of coarse carbonate aggregate. Research on this problem in projects HR-15 and HR-86 helped define three broad areas of the problem in more detail: 1. The problem of evaluation of rocks which pass current specifications but have poor service records 2. The basic problem of how rocks contribute to distress in concrete 3. The problem of how concrete ages or weathers.

The Relationship of Ferroan Dolomite Aggregate to Rapid Concrete Deterioration, HR-266, 1987

Some of Iowa's 13,200 miles of portland cement concrete (pcc) pavement have remained structurally sound for over 50 years while others have suffered premature deterioration. Research has shown that the type of coarse aggregate used in the pcc is the major cause of this premature deterioration. Some coarse aggregates for concrete exhibit a nonuniform performance history. They contribute to premature deterioration on heavily salted primary roadways while providing long maintenance-free life on unsalted secondary pavements. This inconsistency supports the premise that there are at least two mechanisms that contribute to the deterioration. Previous research has shown that one of these mechanisms is a bad pore system. The other is apparently a chemical reaction. The objective of this research is to develop simple rapid test methods to predict the durability of carbonate aggregate in pcc pavement. X-ray diffraction analyses of aggregate samples have been conducted on various beds from numerous quarries producing diffraction plots for more than 200 samples of dolomitic or dolomite aggregates. The crystalline structures of these dolomitic aggregates show maximum-intensity dolomite/ankerite peaks ranging from a d-spacing of 2.884 angstroms for good aggregates to a d-spacing of 2.914 angstroms for nondurable aggregates. If coarse aggregates with known bad pore systems are removed from this summary, the d-spacing values of the remaining aggregates correlate very well with expected service life. This may indicate that the iron substitution for magnesium in the dolomite crystal is associated with the instability of the ferroan dolomite aggregates in pcc pavement.

Genetic distance estimated by RAPD markers and its relationship with hybrid performance in maize

The objective of this work was to evaluate the genetic diversity of 16 maize inbred lines, and to determine the correlation between genetic distance and hybrid performance, using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) molecular markers. Twenty-two different random primers were used, which resulted in the amplification of 265 fragments, 237 (84.44%) of them being polymorphic. A genetic similarity matrix was created from the RAPD data, using Jaccard coefficient, and a dendrogram was constructed. Hybrid analyses were carried out using random block design and Griffing method VI for diallel crossings. The genetic associations showed five distinct heterotic groups. Correlations between genetic divergences detected by RAPD, as well as the means observed in the diallel crossings were positive and significant for plant height, ear height, prolificacy, and grain weight. The correlation of genetic divergences, detected by RAPD, and the specific combining ability between heterotic group associations, showed significance in all characteristics under study, except prolificacy. A direct relationship between genetic divergence and productivity was found in 79.2% of the 120 hybrids confirming the hypothesis that genetic divergence is directly related to the performance of hybrids and is efficient in predicting it.

Basic density and pulp yield relationship with some chemical parameters in eucalyptus trees

The objective of this work was to evaluate the use of basic density and pulp yield correlations with some chemical parameters, in order to differentiate an homogeneous eucalyptus tree population, in terms of its potential for pulp production or some other technological applications. Basic density and kraft pulp yield were determined for 120 Eucalyptus globulus trees, and the values were plotted as frequency distributions. Homogenized samples from the first and fourth density quartiles and first and fourth yield quartiles were submitted to total phenols, total sugars and methoxyl group analysis. Syringyl/guaiacyl (S/G) and syringaldehyde/vanillin (S/V) ratios were determined on the kraft lignins from wood of the same quartiles. The results show the similarity between samples from high density and low yield quartiles, both with lower S/G (3.88-4.12) and S/V (3.99-4.09) ratios and higher total phenols (13.3-14.3 g gallic acid kg-1 ). Woods from the high yield quartile are statistically distinguished from all the others because of their higher S/G (5.15) and S/V (4.98) ratios and lower total phenols (8.7 g gallic acid kg-1 ). Methoxyl group and total sugars parameters are more adequate to distinguish wood samples with lower density.