New findings on the dynamics of HIV and TB coinfection models

In this paper we study a model for HIV and TB coinfection. We consider the integer order and the fractional order versions of the model. Let α∈[0.78,1.0] be the order of the fractional derivative, then the integer order model is obtained for α=1.0. The model includes vertical transmission for HIV and treatment for both diseases. We compute the reproduction number of the integer order model and HIV and TB submodels, and the stability of the disease free equilibrium. We sketch the bifurcation diagrams of the integer order model, for variation of the average number of sexual partners per person and per unit time, and the tuberculosis transmission rate. We analyze numerical results of the fractional order model for different values of α, including α=1. The results show distinct types of transients, for variation of α. Moreover, we speculate, from observation of the numerical results, that the order of the fractional derivative may behave as a bifurcation parameter for the model. We conclude that the dynamics of the integer and the fractional order versions of the model are very rich and that together these versions may provide a better understanding of the dynamics of HIV and TB coinfection.

A coinfection model for HIV and HCV

We study a mathematical model for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatites C virus (HCV) coinfection. The model predicts four distinct equilibria: the disease free, the HIV endemic, the HCV endemic, and the full endemic equilibria. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium was calculated for the full model and the HIV and HCV submodels. We present numerical simulations of the full model where the distinct equilibria can be observed. We show simulations of the qualitative changes of the dynamical behavior of the full model for variation of relevant parameters. From the results of the model, we infer possible measures that could be implemented in order to reduce the number of infected individuals.

Rheology of the cytoskeleton as a fractal network

We model the cytoskeleton as a fractal network by identifying each segment with a simple Kelvin-Voigt element with a well defined equilibrium length. The final structure retains the elastic characteristics of a solid or a gel, which may support stress, without relaxing. By considering a very simple regular self-similar structure of segments in series and in parallel, in one, two, or three dimensions, we are able to express the viscoelasticity of the network as an effective generalized Kelvin-Voigt model with a power law spectrum of retardation times L similar to tau(alpha). We relate the parameter alpha with the fractal dimension of the gel. In some regimes ( 0 < alpha < 1), we recover the weak power law behaviors of the elastic and viscous moduli with the angular frequencies G' similar to G" similar to w(alpha) that occur in a variety of soft materials, including living cells. In other regimes, we find different power laws for G' and G".

What is the shape of an air bubble on a liquid surface?

We have calculated the equilibrium shape of the axially symmetric meniscus along which a spherical bubble contacts a flat liquid surface by analytically integrating the Young-Laplace equation in the presence of gravity, in the limit of large Bond numbers. This method has the advantage that it provides semianalytical expressions for key geometrical properties of the bubble in terms of the Bond number. Results are in good overall agreement with experimental data and are consistent with fully numerical (Surface Evolver) calculations. In particular, we are able to describe how the bubble shape changes from hemispherical, with a flat, shallow bottom, to lenticular, with a deeper, curved bottom, as the Bond number is decreased.

Layerwise mixed models for analysis of multilayered piezoelectric composite plates using least-squares formulation

This work provides an assessment of layerwise mixed models using least-squares formulation for the coupled electromechanical static analysis of multilayered plates. In agreement with three-dimensional (3D) exact solutions, due to compatibility and equilibrium conditions at the layers interfaces, certain mechanical and electrical variables must fulfill interlaminar C-0 continuity, namely: displacements, in-plane strains, transverse stresses, electric potential, in-plane electric field components and transverse electric displacement (if no potential is imposed between layers). Hence, two layerwise mixed least-squares models are here investigated, with two different sets of chosen independent variables: Model A, developed earlier, fulfills a priori the interiaminar C-0 continuity of all those aforementioned variables, taken as independent variables; Model B, here newly developed, rather reduces the number of independent variables, but also fulfills a priori the interlaminar C-0 continuity of displacements, transverse stresses, electric potential and transverse electric displacement, taken as independent variables. The predictive capabilities of both models are assessed by comparison with 3D exact solutions, considering multilayered piezoelectric composite plates of different aspect ratios, under an applied transverse load or surface potential. It is shown that both models are able to predict an accurate quasi-3D description of the static electromechanical analysis of multilayered plates for all aspect ratios.

A conceptual model for sheet-flow drawn from rapid granular flow theories

33rd IAHR Congress: Water Engineering for a Sustainable Environment

Iberian peninsula ecosystem carbon fluxes: a model-data integration study

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia do Ambiente pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa,Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Privatization in an international mixed duopoly with environmental taxes

We study the effects of environmental and trade policies in an international duopoly serving two countries, with pollution abatement. This analysis is done in both mixed and privatized markets. The model has two stages: First, governments choose environmental taxes and import tariffs, simultaneously; then, the firms compete in the market by choosing output levels for the domestic market and to export and also abatement levels.

Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Processos de construção e dimensionamento de pontes atirantadas

Na presente dissertação desenvolve-se o tema das pontes atirantadas. Apresentam-se várias formas de concepção estrutural, identificando os diversos elementos estruturais e as suas possíveis combinações. São também apresentadas as vantagens, desvantagens e aplicação de cada elemento estrutural na globalidade da estrutura. Os métodos construtivos foram também abordados, apresentando o faseamento construtivo, vantagens, desvantagens e condicionantes de cada processo para pilares, mastros e tabuleiros. Foi feito um estudo das várias acções regulamentares relevantes, para este tipo de estrutura, explicando para cada uma a sua metodologia de cálculo e a sua aplicação em cada elemento estrutural. A sua aplicação depende da estrutura em causa. Utilizando como caso de estudo uma ponte idealizada pelo Professor António Adão da Fonseca, que faz a ligação entre as cidades do Porto e Vila Nova de Gaia, foi feito um pré-dimensionamento de cada elemento estrutural, assim como o cálculo do pré-tensionamento dos tirantes. Em seguida foram elaboradas análises estáticas e dinâmicas através de um modelo numérico, considerando algumas das acções regulamentares estudadas anteriormente. Das análises foram extraídos valores de deslocamentos e esforços em cada elemento estrutural. Estes deslocamentos e esforços foram comparados entre várias combinações de acções e alternâncias de sobrecargas, procedendo-se no final a uma discussão dos resultados.

Government preference, environmental taxes and privatization

We analyse the relationship between the privatization of a public firm and government preferences for environmental tax revenue. The model that we consider is more general than the one consider in Wang and Wang (2009), in the sense that we put a larger weight in the environment tax revenue than on the other terms of the government's objective function. The model has two stages. In the first stage, the government sets the environmental tax. Then, the firms engage in a Cournot competition, choosing output and pollution abatement levels.

Privatization and social welfare in an international mixed Stackelberg duopoly

Competition between public and private firms exists in a range of industries like telecommunications, electricity, natural gas, airlines industries, as weel as services including hospitals, banking and education. Some authors studied mixed oligopolies under Cournot competition (firms move simultaneously) and some others considered Stackelberg models (firms move sequentially). Tomaru [1] analyzed, in a Cournot model, how decision-making upon cost-reducing R&D investment by a domestic public firm is affected by privatization when competing in the domestic market with a foreign firm. He shows that privatization of the domestic public firm lowers productive efficiency and deteriorates domestic social welfare. In this paper, we examine the same question but in a Stackelberg formulation instead of Cournot. The model is a three-stage game. In the first stage, the domestic firm chooses the amount of cost-reducing R&D investment. Then, the firms compete à la Stackelberg. Two cases are considered: (i) The domestic firm is the leader; (ii) The foreign firm is the leader. We show that the results obtained in [1] for Cournot competition are robust in the sence that they are also true when firms move sequentially.

European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change and its key tool for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. The purpose of the present work is to evaluate the influence of CO2 opportunity cost on the Spanish wholesale electricity price. Our sample includes all Phase II of the EU ETS and the first year of Phase III implementation, from January 2008 to December 2013. A vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to estimate not only long-run equilibrium relations, but also short-run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The four commodities prices are modeled as joint endogenous variables with air temperature and renewable energy as exogenous variables. We found a long-run relationship (cointegration) between electricity price, carbon price, and fuel prices. By estimating the dynamic pass-through of carbon price into electricity price for different periods of our sample, it is possible to observe the weakening of the link between carbon and electricity prices as a result from the collapse on CO2 prices, therefore compromising the efficacy of the system to reach proposed environmental goals. This conclusion is in line with the need to shape new policies within the framework of the EU ETS that prevent excessive low prices for carbon over extended periods of time.

Stackelberg leadership with demand uncertainty in a differentiated duopoly

On a symmetric differentiated Stackelberg duopoly model in which there is asymmetric demand information owned by leading and follower firms, we show that the leading firm does not necessarily have advantage over the following one. The reason for this is that the second mover can adjust its output level after observing the realized demand, while the first mover chooses its output level only with the knowledge of demand distribution.

Welfare effects of entry into international markets with licensing

We study the effects of entry of a foreign firm on domestic welfare in the presence of licensing, when the entrant is technologically inferior to the incumbent. We show that foreign entry increases domestic welfare for intermediate (respectively, sufficiently large) technological differences between the firms under licensing with fixed fee (respectively, output royalty).