Which policy option can be more cost-effective in promoting the use of energy efficient appliances in Europe? A comparison of energy taxes, subsidies, tax credits and bans.

4 p.

Economic Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Services Losses: Cost of Policy Inaction

52 p.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Protein structure refinement algorithms

Protein structure prediction has remained a major challenge in structural biology for more than half a century. Accelerated and cost efficient sequencing technologies have allowed researchers to sequence new organisms and discover new protein sequences. Novel protein structure prediction technologies will allow researchers to study the structure of proteins and to determine their roles in the underlying biology processes and develop novel therapeutics.

Difficulty of the problem stems from two folds: (a) describing the energy landscape that corresponds to the protein structure, commonly referred to as force field problem; and (b) sampling of the energy landscape, trying to find the lowest energy configuration that is hypothesized to be the native state of the structure in solution. The two problems are interweaved and they have to be solved simultaneously. This thesis is composed of three major contributions. In the first chapter we describe a novel high-resolution protein structure refinement algorithm called GRID. In the second chapter we present REMCGRID, an algorithm for generation of low energy decoy sets. In the third chapter, we present a machine learning approach to ranking decoys by incorporating coarse-grain features of protein structures.

The principles involved in a factory cost system

Successful management has been defined as the art of spending money wisely and well. Profits may not be the end and all of business but they are certainly the test of practicality. Everything worth while should pay for itself. One proposal is no better than another, except as in the working-out it yields better results.

Structure Prediction of G-Protein Coupled Receptors

G-protein coupled receptors (GPCRs) form a large family of proteins and are very important drug targets. They are membrane proteins, which makes computational prediction of their structure challenging. Homology modeling is further complicated by low sequence similarly of the GPCR superfamily.

In this dissertation, we analyze the conserved inter-helical contacts of recently solved crystal structures, and we develop a unified sequence-structural alignment of the GPCR superfamily. We use this method to align 817 human GPCRs, 399 of which are nonolfactory. This alignment can be used to generate high quality homology models for the 817 GPCRs.

To refine the provided GPCR homology models we developed the Trihelix sampling method. We use a multi-scale approach to simplify the problem by treating the transmembrane helices as rigid bodies. In contrast to Monte Carlo structure prediction methods, the Trihelix method does a complete local sampling using discretized coordinates for the transmembrane helices. We validate the method on existing structures and apply it to predict the structure of the lactate receptor, HCAR1. For this receptor, we also build extracellular loops by taking into account constraints from three disulfide bonds. Docking of lactate and 3,5-dihydroxybenzoic acid shows likely involvement of three Arg residues on different transmembrane helices in binding a single ligand molecule.

Protein structure prediction relies on accurate force fields. We next present an effort to improve the quality of charge assignment for large atomic models. In particular, we introduce the formalism of the polarizable charge equilibration scheme (PQEQ) and we describe its implementation in the molecular simulation package Lammps. PQEQ allows fast on the fly charge assignment even for reactive force fields.

The minimal overlap cost sharing rule

In this paper we introduce a new cost sharing rule-the minimal overlap cost sharing rule-which is associated with the minimal overlap rule for claims problems defined by O'Neill (1982). An axiomatic characterization is given by employing a unique axiom: demand separability. Variations of this axiom enable the serial cost sharing rule (Moulin and Shenker, 1992) and the rules of a family (Albizuri, 2010) that generalize the serial cost sharing rule to be characterized. Finally, a family that includes the minimal overlap cost sharing rule is defined and obtained by means of an axiomatic characterization.