Investigation into a best practice model for providing an integrated user experience with mobile cloud applications

Mobile Cloud Computing promises to overcome the physical limitations of mobile devices by executing demanding mobile applications on cloud infrastructure. In practice, implementing this paradigm is difficult; network disconnection often occurs, bandwidth may be limited, and a large power draw is required from the battery, resulting in a poor user experience. This thesis presents a mobile cloud middleware solution, Context Aware Mobile Cloud Services (CAMCS), which provides cloudbased services to mobile devices, in a disconnected fashion. An integrated user experience is delivered by designing for anticipated network disconnection, and low data transfer requirements. CAMCS achieves this by means of the Cloud Personal Assistant (CPA); each user of CAMCS is assigned their own CPA, which can complete user-assigned tasks, received as descriptions from the mobile device, by using existing cloud services. Service execution is personalised to the user's situation with contextual data, and task execution results are stored with the CPA until the user can connect with his/her mobile device to obtain the results. Requirements for an integrated user experience are outlined, along with the design and implementation of CAMCS. The operation of CAMCS and CPAs with cloud-based services is presented, specifically in terms of service description, discovery, and task execution. The use of contextual awareness to personalise service discovery and service consumption to the user's situation is also presented. Resource management by CAMCS is also studied, and compared with existing solutions. Additional application models that can be provided by CAMCS are also presented. Evaluation is performed with CAMCS deployed on the Amazon EC2 cloud. The resource usage of the CAMCS Client, running on Android-based mobile devices, is also evaluated. A user study with volunteers using CAMCS on their own mobile devices is also presented. Results show that CAMCS meets the requirements outlined for an integrated user experience.

Freshwater Resource Supply Modeling for Developed and Undeveloped Watersheds

Globally, the current state of freshwater resource management is insufficient and impeding the chance at a sustainable future. Human interference within the natural hydrologic cycle is becoming dangerously irreversible and the need to redefine resource managerial approaches is imminent. This research involves the development of a coupled natural-human freshwater resource supply model using a System Dynamics approach. The model was applied to two case studies, Somalia, Africa and the Phoenix Active Management Area in Arizona, USA. It is suggested that System Dynamic modeling would be an invaluable tool for achieving sustainable freshwater resource management in individual watersheds. Through a series of thought experiments, a thorough understanding of the systems’ dynamic behaviors is obtainable for freshwater resource managers and policy-makers to examine various courses of action for alleviating freshwater supply concerns. This thesis reviews the model, its development and an analysis of several thought experiments applied to the case studies.

Surface wind stress modeled for the Panama Seaway with the Community Climate System Model 3

The early Pliocene warm phase was characterized by high sea surface temperatures and a deep thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific. A new hypothesis suggests that the progressive closure of the Panamanian seaway contributed substantially to the termination of this zonally symmetric state in the equatorial Pacific. According to this hypothesis, intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) - induced by the closure of the gateway - was the principal cause of equatorial Pacific thermocline shoaling during the Pliocene. In this study, twelve Panama seaway sensitivity experiments from eight ocean/climate models of different complexity are analyzed to examine the effect of an open gateway on AMOC strength and thermocline depth. All models show an eastward Panamanian net throughflow, leading to a reduction in AMOC strength compared to the corresponding closed-Panama case. In those models that do not include a dynamic atmosphere, deepening of the equatorial Pacific thermocline appears to scale almost linearly with the throughflow-induced reduction in AMOC strength. Models with dynamic atmosphere do not follow this simple relation. There are indications that in four out of five models equatorial wind-stress anomalies amplify the tropical Pacific thermocline deepening. In summary, the models provide strong support for the hypothesized relationship between Panama closure and equatorial Pacific thermocline shoaling.

Age determinaton and age model of sediments from the Bay of Biscay

Continuous high-resolution mass accumulation rates (MAR) and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements from marine sediment records in the Bay of Biscay (NE Atlantic) have allowed the determination of the timing and the amplitude of the 'Fleuve Manche' (Channel River) discharges during glacial stages MIS 10, MIS 8, MIS 6 and MIS 4-2. These results have yielded detailed insight into the Middle and Late Pleistocene glaciations in Europe and the drainage network of the western and central European rivers over the last 350 kyr. This study provides clear evidence that the 'Fleuve Manche' connected the southern North Sea basin with the Bay of Biscay during each glacial period and reveals that 'Fleuve Manche' activity during the glaciations MIS 10 and MIS 8 was significantly less than during MIS 6 and MIS 2. We correlate the significant 'Fleuve Manche' activity, detected during MIS 6 and MIS 2, with the extensive Saalian (Drenthe Substage) and the Weichselian glaciations, respectively, confirming that the major Elsterian glaciation precedes the glacial MIS 10. In detail, massive 'Fleuve Manche' discharges occurred at ca 155 ka (mid-MIS 6) and during Termination I, while no significant discharges are found during Termination II. It is assumed that a substantial retreat of the European ice sheet at ca 155 kyr, followed by the formation of ice-free conditions between the British Isles and Scandinavia until Termination II, allowed meltwater to flow northwards through the North Sea basin during the second part of the MIS 6. We assume that this glacial pattern corresponds to the Warthe Substage glacial maximum, therefore indicating that the data presented here equates to the Drenthe and the Warthe glacial advances at ca 175-160 ka and ca 150-140 ka, respectively. Finally, the correlation of our records with ODP site 980 reveals that massive 'Fleuve Manche' discharges, related to partial or complete melting of the European ice masses, were synchronous with strong decreases in both the rate of deep-water formation and the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. 'Fleuve Manche' discharges over the last 350 kyr probably participated, with other meltwater sources, in the collapse of the thermohaline circulation by freshening the northern Atlantic surface water.

Meteorological observations and eddy covariance raw data from polygonal tundra in the Lena River Delta, Siberia

We present the first ecosystem-scale methane flux data from a northern Siberian tundra ecosystem covering the entire snow-free period from spring thaw until initial freeze-back. Eddy covariance measurements of methane emission were carried out from the beginning of June until the end of September in the southern central part of the Lena River Delta (72°22' N, 126°30' E). The study site is located in the zone of continuous permafrost and is characterized by Arctic continental climate with very low precipitation and a mean annual temperature of -14.7°C. We found relatively low fluxes of on average 18.7 mg/m**2/d, which we consider to be because of (1) extremely cold permafrost, (2) substrate limitation of the methanogenic archaea, and (3) a relatively high surface coverage of noninundated, moderately moist areas. Near-surface turbulence as measured by the eddy covariance system in 4 m above the ground surface was identified as the most important control on ecosystem-scale methane emission and explained about 60% of the variance in emissions, while soil temperature explained only 8%. In addition, atmospheric pressure was found to significantly improve an exponential model based on turbulence and soil temperature. Ebullition from waterlogged areas triggered by decreasing atmospheric pressure and near-surface turbulence is thought to be an important pathway that warrants more attention in future studies. The close coupling of methane fluxes and atmospheric parameters demonstrated here raises questions regarding the reliability of enclosure-based measurements, which inherently exclude these parameters.

Sea ice thickness distribution (ITD) Model for the Arctic, links to NetCDF files

Sea ice models contain many different parameterizations of which one of the most commonly used is a subgrid-scale ice thickness distribution (ITD). The effect of this model component and the associated ice strength formulation on the reproduction of observed Arctic sea ice is assessed. To this end the model's performance in reproducing satellite observations of sea ice concentration, thickness and drift is evaluated. For an unbiased comparison, different model configurations with and without an ITD are tuned with an automated parameter optimization. The original combination of ITD and ice strength parameterization does not lead to better results than a simple single category model. Yet changing to a simpler ice strength formulation, which depends linearly on the mean ice thickness across all thickness categories, allows to clearly improve the model-data misfit when using an ITD. In the original formulation, the ice strength depends strongly on the number of thickness categories, so that introducing more categories can lead to thicker albeit weaker ice on average.

Seafloor spreading magnetic anomaly isochron map compilation for the Weddell Sea and Scotia Sea

The deep sea sedimentary record is an archive of the pre-glacial to glacial development of Antarctica and changes in climate, tectonics and ocean circulation. Identification of the pre-glacial, transitional and full glacial components in the sedimentary record is necessary for ice sheet reconstruction and to build circum-Antarctic sediment thickness grids for past topography and bathymetry reconstructions, which constrain paleoclimate models. A ~3300 km long Weddell Sea to Scotia Sea transect consisting of multichannel seismic reflection data from various organisations, were used to interpret new horizons to define the initial basin-wide seismostratigraphy and to identify the pre-glacial to glacial components. We mapped seven main units of which three are in the inferred Cretaceous-Paleocene pre-glacial regime, one in the Eocene-Oligocene transitional regime and three units in the Miocene-Pleistocene full glacial climate regime. Sparse borehole data from ODP leg 113 and SHALDRIL constrain the ages of the upper three units. Compiled seafloor spreading magnetic anomalies constrain the basement ages and the hypothetical age model. In many cases, the new horizons and stratigraphy contradict the interpretations in local studies. Each seismic sedimentary unit and its associated base horizon are continuous and traceable for the entire transect length, but reflect a lateral change in age whilst representing the same deposition process. The up to 1240 m thick pre-glacial seismic units form a mound in the central Weddell Sea basin and, in conjunction with the eroded flank geometry, support the interpretation of a Cretaceous proto-Weddell Gyre. The base reflector of the transitional seismic unit, which marks the initial ice sheet advances to the outer shelf, has a lateral model age of 26.6-15.5 Ma from southeast to northwest. The Pliocene-Pleistocene glacial deposits reveals lower sedimentations rates, indicating a reduced sediment supply. Sedimentation rates for the pre-glacial, transitional and full glacial components are highest around the Antarctic Peninsula, indicating higher erosion and sediment supply of a younger basement. We interpret an Eocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet expansion, Oligocene grounding of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and Early Miocene grounding of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet.

Holocene experiment with coupled atmosphere-ocean-model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

Changes in the Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of insolation. We quantify the influence of orbitally induced changes on the seasonal temperature cycle in a transient simulation of the last 6000 years - from the mid-Holocene to today - using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) including a land surface model (JSBACH). The seasonal temperature cycle responds directly to the insolation changes almost everywhere. In the Northern Hemisphere, its amplitude decreases according to an increase in winter insolation and a decrease in summer insolation. In the Southern Hemisphere, the opposite is true. Over the Arctic Ocean, decreasing summer insolation leads to an increase in sea-ice cover. The insulating effect of sea ice between the ocean and the atmosphere leads to decreasing heat flux and favors more "continental" conditions over the Arctic Ocean in winter, resulting in strongly decreasing temperatures. Consequently, there are two competing effects: the direct response to insolation changes and a sea-ice insulation effect. The sea-ice insulation effect is stronger, and thus an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal temperature cycle over the Arctic Ocean occurs. This increase is strongest over the Barents Shelf and influences the temperature response over northern Europe. We compare our modeled seasonal temperatures over Europe to paleo reconstructions. We find better agreements in winter temperatures than in summer temperatures and better agreements in northern Europe than in southern Europe, since the model does not reproduce the southern European Holocene summer cooling inferred from the paleo reconstructions. The temperature reconstructions for northern Europe support the notion of the influence of the sea-ice insulation effect on the evolution of the seasonal temperature cycle.

Towards convection-resolving, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) v3.1: an extreme scaling experiment, links to sourcecode of model and grides

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric model, an ocean model and a land-ice model. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. This concept allows one to include the feedback of regional land use information on weather and climate at local and global scales in a consistent way, which is impossible to achieve with traditional limited area modelling approaches. Here, we present an in-depth evaluation of MPAS with regards to technical aspects of performing model runs and scalability for three medium-size meshes on four different high-performance computing (HPC) sites with different architectures and compilers. We uncover model limitations and identify new aspects for the model optimisation that are introduced by the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes. We further demonstrate the model performance of MPAS in terms of its capability to reproduce the dynamics of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its associated precipitation in a pilot study. Constrained by available computational resources, we compare 11-month runs for two meshes with observations and a reference simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show that MPAS can reproduce the atmospheric dynamics on global and local scales in this experiment, but identify a precipitation excess for the West African region. Finally, we conduct extreme scaling tests on a global 3?km mesh with more than 65 million horizontal grid cells on up to half a million cores. We discuss necessary modifications of the model code to improve its parallel performance in general and specific to the HPC environment. We confirm good scaling (70?% parallel efficiency or better) of the MPAS model and provide numbers on the computational requirements for experiments with the 3?km mesh. In doing so, we show that global, convection-resolving atmospheric simulations with MPAS are within reach of current and next generations of high-end computing facilities.

Age model and chemistry of sediment core STK7 from Steisslinger See

Stable isotope records for carbon and oxygen in bulk carbonates, carbon in bulk organic matter, and for total and chromium-reducible sulfur in a lacustrine sediment core from Lake Steisslingen (Southwest Germany) show several distinct and abrupt shifts during the last 15,000 years. Variations in the isotopic composition of authigenic carbonates indicate two major phases in the lake history. In the pre-Holocene, the hydrological budget of the lake was apparently stable. Variations of delta18O values of authigenic carbonates were, therefore, dominantly controlled by temperature changes. A decrease in the delta18Ocarb values of about 2 per mil at the Allerød/Younger Dryas transition is interpreted as a drop in mean annual air temperatures of approximately 5°C. An abrupt temperature increase of a similar magnitude is inferred at the Younger Dryas/Preboreal boundary. Throughout most of the Holocene, the isotopic composition of authigenic carbonates was influenced by marked changes in the hydrological budget of the lake. A major positive excursion in the delta13Ccarb and delta18Ocarb values at the beginning of the Atlantic and a smaller one in the Preboreal were related to evaporation effects, which indicate that dry climatic conditions must have prevailed at that time. A simultaneous increase in delta13C values of bulk organic matter at the beginning of the Atlantic suggests a high level of productivity in the lake. As a consequence, aqueous sulfate became limited as indicated by variations in the delta34S values of total and chromium-reducible sedimentary sulfur. Therefore, we conclude that the beginning of the Atlantic was characterized not only by dry but also by warm climatic conditions, which triggered a higher productivity in the lake. In the Subatlantic sediments, large variations in carbon, oxygen, and sulfur isotope ratios were observed as a result of human activities, causing considerable perturbations in the biogeochemical element cycling of Lake Steisslingen. Results obtained by the study of the continuous 15 ka record of Lake Steisslingen document clearly that isotopic proxy data from lacustrine sediments can provide useful information on environmental and climatic changes of local, regional, and in the case of the Younger Dryas event, of even hemispherical significance.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Model simulation output data (CCSM3) related to uplift of Africa and Himalaya/Tibet Plateau and the influence on tropical African vegetation

Hominid evolution in the late Miocene has long been hypothesized to be linked to the retreat of the tropical rainforest in Africa. One cause for the climatic and vegetation change often considered was uplift of Africa, but also uplift of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau was suggested to have impacted rainfall distribution over Africa. Recent proxy data suggest that in East Africa open grassland habitats were available to the common ancestors of hominins and apes long before their divergence and do not find evidence for a closed rainforest in the late Miocene. We used the coupled global general circulation model CCSM3 including an interactively coupled dynamic vegetation module to investigate the impact of topography on African hydro-climate and vegetation. We performed sensitivity experiments altering elevations of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau as well as of East and Southern Africa. The simulations confirm the dominant impact of African topography for climate and vegetation development of the African tropics. Only a weak influence of prescribed Asian uplift on African climate could be detected. The model simulations show that rainforest coverage of Central Africa is strongly determined by the presence of elevated African topography. In East Africa, despite wetter conditions with lowered African topography, the conditions were not favorable enough to maintain a closed rainforest. A discussion of the results with respect to other model studies indicates a minor importance of vegetation-atmosphere or ocean-atmosphere feedbacks and a large dependence of the simulated vegetation response on the land surface/vegetation model.

Results of the coupled atmosphere-land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH in NetCDF format

In this study we present first results of a new model development, ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso, where we have incorporated the stable water isotopes H218O and HDO as tracers in the hydrological cycle of the coupled atmosphere-land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH. The ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso model was run under present-day climate conditions at two different resolutions (T31L19, T63L31). A comparison between ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso and ECHAM5-wiso shows that the coupling has a strong impact on the simulated temperature and soil wetness. Caused by these changes of temperature and the hydrological cycle, the d18O in precipitation also shows variations from -4 permil up to 4 permil. One of the strongest anomalies is shown over northeast Asia where, due to an increase of temperature, the d18O in precipitation increases as well. In order to analyze the sensitivity of the fractionation processes over land, we compare a set of simulations with various implementations of these processes over the land surface. The simulations allow us to distinguish between no fractionation, fractionation included in the evaporation flux (from bare soil) and also fractionation included in both evaporation and transpiration (from water transport through plants) fluxes. While the isotopic composition of the soil water may change for d18O by up to +8 permil:, the simulated d18O in precipitation shows only slight differences on the order of ±1 permil. The simulated isotopic composition of precipitation fits well with the available observations from the GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) database.