A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Inside the ‘Hurt Locker’: The combined effects of explosive ordnance disposal and chemical protective clothing on physiological tolerance time in extreme environments

Background Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) technicians are often required to wear specialised clothing combinations that not only protect against the risk of explosion but also potential chemical contamination. This heavy (>35kg) and encapsulating ensemble is likely to increase physiological strain by increasing metabolic heat production and impairing heat dissipation. This study investigated the physiological tolerance times of two different chemical protective undergarments, commonly worn with EOD personal protective clothing, in a range of simulated environmental extremes and work intensities Methods Seven males performed eighteen trials wearing two ensembles. The trials involved walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km.h-1 at each of the following environmental conditions, 21, 30 and 37°C wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The trials were ceased if the participants’ core temperature reached 39°C, if heart rate exceeded 90% of maximum, if walking time reached 60 minutes or due to volitional fatigue. Results Physiological tolerance times ranged from 8 to 60 min and the duration (mean difference: 2.78 min, P>0.05) were similar in both ensembles. A significant effect for environment (21>30>37°C WBGT, P<0.05) and work intensity (2.5>4>5.5 km.h-1, P< 0.05) was observed in tolerance time. The majority of trials across both ensembles (101/126; 80.1%) were terminated due to participants achieving a heart rate equivalent to greater than 90% of their maximum. Conclusions Physiological tolerance times wearing these two chemical protective undergarments, worn underneath EOD personal protective clothing, were similar and predominantly limited by cardiovascular strain.

Promoting pro-environmental action in climate change deniers

A sizeable (and growing) proportion of the public in Western democracies deny the existence of anthropogenic climate change. It is commonly assumed that convincing deniers that climate change is real is necessary for them to act pro-environmentally. However, the likelihood of ‘conversion’ using scientific evidence is limited because these attitudes increasingly reflect ideological positions. An alternative approach is to identify outcomes of mitigation efforts that deniers find important. People have strong interests in the welfare of their society, so deniers may act in ways supporting mitigation efforts where they believe these efforts will have positive societal effects. In Study 1, climate change deniers (N D 155) intended to act more pro-environmentally where they thought climate change action would create a society where people are more considerate and caring, and where there is greater economic/technological development. Study 2 (ND347) replicated this experimentally, showing that framing climate change action as increasing consideration for others, or improving economic/technological development, led to greater pro-environmental action intentions than a frame emphasizing avoiding the risks of climate change. To motivate deniers’ pro-environmental actions, communication should focus on how mitigation efforts can promote a better society, rather than focusing on the reality of climate change and averting its risks.

Commuting mode choice in transit oriented development: Disentangling the effects of competitive neighbourhoods, travel attitudes, and self-selection

This research identifies the commuting mode choice behaviour of 3537 adults living in different types of transit oriented development (TOD) in Brisbane by disentangling the effects of their “evil twin” transit adjacent developments (TADs), and by also controlling for residential self-selection, travel attitudes and preferences, and socio-demographic effects. A TwoStep cluster analysis was conducted to identify the natural groupings of respondents’ living environment based on six built environment indicators. The analysis resulted in five types of neighbourhoods: urban TODs, activity centre TODs, potential TODs, TADs, and traditional suburbs. HABITAT survey data were used to derive the commute mode choice behaviour of people living in these neighbourhoods. In addition, statements reflecting both respondents’ travel attitudes and living preferences were also collected as part of the survey. Factor analyses were conducted based on these statements and these derived factors were then used to control for residential self-selection. Four binary logistic regression models were estimated, one for each of the travel modes used (e.g. public transport, active transport, less sustainable transport such as the car/taxi, and other), to differentiate between the commuting behaviour of people living in the five types of neighbourhoods. The findings verify that urban TODs enhance the use of public transport and reduce car usage. No significant difference was found in the commuting behaviour between respondents living in traditional suburbs and TADs. The results confirm the hypothesis that TADs are the “evil twin” of TODs. The data indicates that TADs and the mode choices of residents in these neighbourhoods is a missed transport policy opportunity. Further policy efforts are required for a successive transition of TADs into TODs in order to realise the full benefits of these. TOD policy should also be integrated with context specific TOD design principles.

Mapping genetic influences on brain fiber architecture with high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI)

We report the first 3D maps of genetic effects on brain fiber complexity. We analyzed HARDI brain imaging data from 90 young adult twins using an information-theoretic measure, the Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD), to gauge the regional complexity of the white matter fiber orientation distribution functions (ODF). HARDI data were fluidly registered using Karcher means and ODF square-roots for interpol ation; each subject's JSD map was computed from the spatial coherence of the ODFs in each voxel's neighborhood. We evaluated the genetic influences on generalized fiber anisotropy (GFA) and complexity (JSD) using structural equation models (SEM). At each voxel, genetic and environmental components of data variation were estimated, and their goodness of fit tested by permutation. Color-coded maps revealed that the optimal models varied for different brain regions. Fiber complexity was predominantly under genetic control, and was higher in more highly anisotropic regions. These methods show promise for discovering factors affecting fiber connectivity in the brain.

Memory strength effects in fMRI studies: A matter of confidence

To investigate potentially dissociable recognition memory responses in the hippocampus and perirhinal cortex, fMRI studies have often used confidence ratings as an index of memory strength. Confidence ratings, although correlated with memory strength, also reflect sources of variability, including task-irrelevant item effects and differences both within and across individuals in terms of applying decision criteria to separate weak from strong memories. We presented words one, two, or four times at study in each of two different conditions, focused and divided attention, and then conducted separate fMRI analyses of correct old responses on the basis of subjective confidence ratings or estimates from single- versus dual-process recognition memory models. Overall, the effect of focussing attention on spaced repetitions at study manifested as enhanced recognition memory performance. Confidence- versus model-based analyses revealed disparate patterns of hippocampal and perirhinal cortex activity at both study and test and both within and across hemispheres. The failure to observe equivalent patterns of activity indicates that fMRI signals associated with subjective confidence ratings reflect additional sources of variability. The results are consistent with predictions of single-process models of recognition memory.

Multivariate variance-components analysis in DTI

Twin studies are a major research direction in imaging genetics, a new field, which combines algorithms from quantitative genetics and neuroimaging to assess genetic effects on the brain. In twin imaging studies, it is common to estimate the intraclass correlation (ICC), which measures the resemblance between twin pairs for a given phenotype. In this paper, we extend the commonly used Pearson correlation to a more appropriate definition, which uses restricted maximum likelihood methods (REML). We computed proportion of phenotypic variance due to additive (A) genetic factors, common (C) and unique (E) environmental factors using a new definition of the variance components in the diffusion tensor-valued signals. We applied our analysis to a dataset of Diffusion Tensor Images (DTI) from 25 identical and 25 fraternal twin pairs. Differences between the REML and Pearson estimators were plotted for different sample sizes, showing that the REML approach avoids severe biases when samples are smaller. Measures of genetic effects were computed for scalar and multivariate diffusion tensor derived measures including the geodesic anisotropy (tGA) and the full diffusion tensors (DT), revealing voxel-wise genetic contributions to brain fiber microstructure.

Effects of temperature and salinity on growth performance in cultured Tra catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) in Vietnam

This project is a step towards assessing the effects of climate change on the tra catfish industry in Vietnam. The methods were designed to evaluate possible effects of salinity and temperature increase and their interaction on fish physiological parameters, growth performance, survival and the expression of stress related genes. Results indicated that tra had higher overall performance at 35oC with 6ppt salinity and therefore should cope with moderate predicted outcomes of climate change for the region. The experiments were mostly conducted in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam - the centre of the tra catfish industry with the cooperation of Can Tho University – Can Tho City – Vietnam.

Phylogeographical relationships of Sicilian brown trout and the effects of genetic introgression on morphospace occupation

Genetic introgression of aquaculture stocks in local forms is well documented in many fish species but their evolutionary consequences for the local populations have not been thoroughly explored. Due to its wide geographical range, the existence of many locally adapted forms and the frequent occurrence of introgression of aquaculture stocks in local forms, brown trout represents the ideal system to study the effects of such introgressions. Here, we focus on a group of rivers and streams in Sicily (Italy), and, by using molecular tools, we show that autochthonous populations are probably derived from the Southern Atlantic clade, which is present in the Iberian peninsula and North Africa. Three out of the four studied rivers reveal signs of genetic introgression of domestic stocks. Finally, by using advanced geometric morphometric analyses, we show that genetic introgression produces a higher degree of morphological variability relative to that observed in non-introgressed populations.

Temporal and environmental influences on the vocal behaviour of a nocturnal bird

Temporal and environmental variation in vocal activity can provide information on avian behaviour and call function not available to short-term experimental studies. Intersexual differences in this variation can provide insight into selection effects. Yet factors influencing vocal behaviour have not been assessed in many birds, even those monitored by acoustic methods. This applies to the New Zealand kiwi (Apterygidae), for which call censuses are used extensively in conservation monitoring, yet which have poorly understood acoustic ecology. We investigated little spotted kiwi Apteryx owenii vocal behaviour over 3 yr, measuring influences on vocal activity in both sexes from time of night, season, weather conditions and lunar cycle. We tested hypotheses that call rate variation reflects call function, foraging efficiency, historic predation risk and variability in sound transmission, and that there are inter-sexual differences in call function. Significant seasonal variation showed that vocalisations were important in kiwi reproduction, and inter-sexual synchronisation of call rates indicated that contact, pair-bonding or resource defence were key functions. All weather variables significantly affected call rates, with elevated calling during increased humidity and ground moisture indicating a relation between vocal activity and foraging conditions. A significant decrease in calling activity on cloudy nights, combined with no moonlight effect, suggests an impact of light pollution in this species. These influences on vocal activity provide insight into kiwi call function, have direct consequences for conservation monitoring of kiwi, and have wider implications in understanding vocal behaviour in a range of nocturnal birds

The effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality: An epidemiologic study in four climatic zones in China

Background Little evidence is available about the association between temperature and cerebrovascular mortality in China. This study aims to examine the effects of ambient temperature on cerebrovascular mortality in different climatic zones in China. Method We obtained daily data on weather conditions, air pollution and cerebrovascular deaths from five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Guangzhou) in China during 2004-2008. We examined city-specific associations between ambient temperature and the cerebrovascular mortality, while adjusting for season, long-term trends, day of the week, relative humidity and air pollution. We examined cold effects using a 1°C decrease in temperature below a city-specific threshold, and hot effects using a 1°C increase in temperature above a city-specific threshold. We used a meta-analysis to summarize the cold and hot effects across the five cities. Results Beijing and Tianjin (with low mean temperature) had lower thresholds than Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou (with high mean temperature). In Beijing, Tianjin, Wuhan and Guangzhou cold effects were delayed, while in Shanghai there was no or short induction. Hot effects were acute in all five cities. The cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. The hot effects were followed by mortality displacement. The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C decrease in temperature below thresholds (cold effect) was 1.037 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020, 1.053). The pooled relative risk associated with a 1°C increase in temperature above thresholds (hot effect) was 1.014 (95% CI: 0.979, 1.050). Conclusion Cold temperatures are significantly associated with cerebrovascular mortality in China, while hot effect is not significant. People in colder climate cities were sensitive to hot temperatures, while people in warmer climate cities were vulnerable to cold temperature.

The effects of high temperature on cardiovascular admissions in the most populous tropical city in Vietnam

This study examined the short-term effects of temperature on cardiovascular hospital admissions (CHA) in the largest tropical city in Southern Vietnam. We applied Poisson time-series regression models with Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model (DLNM) to examine the temperature-CHA association while adjusting for seasonal and long-term trends, day of the week, holidays, and humidity. The threshold temperature and added effects of heat waves were also evaluated. The exposure-response curve of temperature-CHA reveals a J-shape relationship with a threshold temperature of 29.6 °C. The delayed effects temperature-CHA lasted for a week (0–5 days). The overall risk of CHA increased 12.9% (RR, 1.129; 95%CI, 0.972–1.311) during heatwave events, which were defined as temperature ≥ the 99th percentile for ≥2 consecutive days. The modification roles of gender and age were inconsistent and non-significant in this study. An additional prevention program that reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease in relation to high temperatures should be developed.

Systematic and Day-to-Day Effects of Chemical-Derived Population Estimates on Wastewater-Based Drug Epidemiology

Population size is crucial when estimating population-normalized drug consumption (PNDC) from wastewater-based drug epidemiology (WBDE). Three conceptually different population estimates can be used: de jure (common census, residence), de facto (all persons within a sewer catchment), and chemical loads (contributors to the sampled wastewater). De facto and chemical loads will be the same where all households contribute to a central sewer system without wastewater loss. This study explored the feasibility of determining a de facto population and its effect on estimating PNDC in an urban community over an extended period. Drugs and other chemicals were analyzed in 311 daily composite wastewater samples. The daily estimated de facto population (using chemical loads) was on average 32% higher than the de jure population. Consequently, using the latter would systemically overestimate PNDC by 22%. However, the relative day-to-day pattern of drug consumption was similar regardless of the type of normalization as daily illicit drug loads appeared to vary substantially more than the population. Using chemical loads population, we objectively quantified the total methodological uncertainty of PNDC and reduced it by a factor of 2. Our study illustrated the potential benefits of using chemical loads population for obtaining more robust PNDC data in WBDE.

Self-Absorption and Focusing Effects in Carrier Relaxation Dynamics under Depletion Conditions

The effect of a one-dimensional field (1) on the self-absorption characteristics and (2) when we have a finite numerical aperture for the objective lens that focuses the laser beam on the solid are considered here. Self-absorption, in particular its manifestation as an inner filter for the emitted signal, has been observed in luminescence experiments. Models for this effect exist and have been analyzed, but only in the absence of space charge. Using our previous results on minority carrier relaxation in the presence of a field, we obtain expressions incorporating inner filter effects. Focusing of a light beam on the sample, by an objective lens, results in a three-dimensional source and consequently a three-dimensional continuity equation to be solved for the minority carrier concentration. Assuming a one-dimensional electric field and employing Fourier-Bessel transforms, we recast the problem of carrier relaxation and solve the same via an identity that relates it to solutions obtained in the absence of focusing effects. The inner filter effect as well as focusing introduces new time scales in the problem of carrier relaxation. The interplay between the electric field and the parameters which characterize these effects and the consequent modulation of the intensity and time scales of carrier decay signals are analyzed and discussed.

Laboratory investigation on the effects of overburden pressure, water, and time on slaking induced material property degradation of coal mine spoil

In open-cut strip mining, waste material is placed in-pit to minimise operational mine costs. Slope failures in these spoil piles pose a significant safety risk to personnel, along with a financial risk from loss of equipment and scheduling delays. It has been observed that most spoil pile failures occur when the pit has been previously filled with water and then subsequently dewatered. The failures are often initiated at the base of spoil piles where the material can undergo significant slaking (disintegration) over time due to overburden pressure and water saturation. It is important to understand how the mechanical properties of base spoil material are affected by slaking when designing safe spoil pile slope angles, heights, and dewatering rates. In this study, fresh spoil material collected from a coal mine in Brown Basin Coalfield of Queensland, Australia was subjected to high overburden pressure (0 – 900 kPa) under saturated condition and maintained over a period of time (0 – 6 months) allowing the material to slake. To create the above conditions, laboratory designed pressure chambers were used. Once a spoil sample was slaked under certain overburden pressure over a period of time, it was tested for classification, permeability, and strength properties. Results of this testing program suggested that the slaking of saturated coal mine spoil increase with overburden pressure and the time duration over which the overburden pressure was maintained. Further, it was observed that shear strength and permeability of spoil decreased with increase in spoil slaking.