The contagion effect of public debt on monetary policy: the Brazilian experience

This paper attempts to explain why the Brazilian inter-bank interest rate is so high compared with rates practiced by other emerging economies. The interplay between the markets for bank reserves and government securities feeds into the inter-bank rate the risk premium of the Brazilian public debt.

External debt in developing economies: assessment and policy issues

More than one decade after the external debt restructuring (the Brady Plan), a great amount of literature has been published concerning the balance sheet factors in developing countries. The staff of international multilateral institutions joined with reputable academics in this great controversy. The external debt problem of the developing countries is back and once more reflections on its cause and on policy recommendations are analytically distinct. Our main task is to reflect on the recent external debt dynamics and assess how this debt has evolved. Our findings indicate that the susceptibility of some developing countries to default is associated with global imbalance, that is, the way they borrow.

Uncertainties, monetary policy and financial stability: challenges on inflation targeting

This work aims at presenting the challenges that inflation targeting central banks may face since uncertainties represent a harmful element for the effectiveness of monetary policy, and since financial instabilities may disturb the transmission mechanisms - in particular, the expectation channel - and thus the economic stability. Financial stability must not be considered as a simple goal of monetary policy, but a precondition for central banks operate their policies and reach the goals of inflation and output stability. The work identifies different sources of uncertainties that surround central banks' decisions; and approaches the role that inflation targeting central banks should play according to some basic principles that can serve as useful guides for central banks to help them achieve successful outcomes in their conduct of monetary policy.

EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region: its added value in environmental social and economic dimensions

The European Council has invited the European Commission to present the first macro-regional strategy – the EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region (EUSBSR) on the 14th of December 2007, primarily to address collective challenges and opportunities of the Region and also to engender cohesion in support of an European integration policy. However, macro-regional strategies conceived to aid European integration and territorial cohesion were viewed by academics with skepticism, obscuring the strategies’ potential impact. This thesis intends to investigate and measure the added value of the EUSBSR in order to analyze its impact on regional development and its feasibility as a guide for future programs intending to strengthen European cohesion and integration. To determine the added value of the EUSBSR the thesis is organized into three sections, so as to address environmental, social, and economic concerns, respectively. The first case examines EU-Russia cooperation in an environmental context to investigate how environmental cooperation with an external neighbor could forge increased cohesion in a macro-regional setting. To figure the added cooperation that academic cooperation among universities would contribute to social dimension, the work has chosen several study results. Lastly, to measure out the added value for the economic strategy objective, the study employs the project for Improved Global Competitiveness in an example of ‘A Baltic Sea Region Program for Innovation, Cluster and SME-Networks’ as an economic plan.

Macroeconomic trouble and policy challenges in the wake of the financial bust

Contrasting with the 1929 great crisis, authorities intervened forcefully in 2008 to stop the disintegration of the financial system. Governments and central banks then sought to revise the prudential regulation in depth. It would be optimistic, however, to believe that prudential measures, alone, could deliver full economic recovery, at least in the countries that had been involved in the financial turmoil. Indeed, the collapse of the "state of confidence" and the negative effects of private debts on consumption and investment decisions have fed depressive forces and policy challenges which could hold for a while, even once the financial sector is made safe. On the one hand, the economic slowdown and the direct and indirect assistance provided by the governments to the private sectors are having a heavy impact on public finances, meanwhile, on the other hand, the massive amounts of money which artificially inflated the prices of housing and financial products could produce inflationary pressures in the post-crisis period, unless a new assets bubble is allowed for. Authorities could therefore be facing high unemployment in a damaged context of public deficits and inflationary pressures. The paper aims at discussing these new challenges. The inadequacy of inflation targets and fiscal orthodoxy in a depressed economy is emphasized, and the outlines of a Post Keynesian alternative policy are examined.

Building climate justice : an analysis of how the nexus between climate change and human rights shapes public policy agendas and alternatives

This thesis provides an analysis of how the nexus between climate change and human rights shapes public policy agendas and alternatives. It draws upon seminal work conducted by John Kingdon, whose landmark publication “Agendas, alternatives, and public policy” described how separate streams of problems, solutions, and politics converge to move an issue onto the public policy agenda toward potential government action. Building on Kingdon’s framework, this research explores how human rights contribute to surfacing the problem of climate change; developing alternative approaches to tackling climate change; and improving the political environment necessary for addressing climate change with sufficient ambition. The study reveals that climate change undermines the realization of human rights and that human rights can be effective tools in building climate resilience. This analysis was developed using a mixed methods approach and drawing upon substantial literature review, the researcher’s own participation in international climate policy design; elite interviews with thought leaders dealing with climate change and human rights; and regular inputs from focus groups comprised of practitioners drawn from the fields of climate change, development and human rights. This is a journal based thesis with a total of six articles submitted for evaluation, published in peer‐reviewed publications, over a five year period. Denna avhandling analyserar hur klimatfrågan och mänskliga rättigheter i samverkan formar den politiska agendan och det politiskt möjliga. Den bygger på banbrytande forskning av John Kingdon, vars publikation “Agendas, alternatives, and public policy” beskriver hur en fråga blir politiskt viktig och lyfts upp på den politiska agendan. Med utgångspunkt i Kingdons ramverk, utforskar avhandlingen hur mänskliga rättigheter bidrar till att blottlägga klimatfrågan som problem; utveckla alternativa metoder för att angripa och hantera klimatfrågan; samt skapa ett politiskt klimat nödvändigt för att på ett ambitiöst sätt kunna angripa klimatfrågan. Studien visar att klimatförändringar undergräver mänskliga rättigheterna men att arbete med mänskliga rättigheter kan vara ett effektivt verktyg för att stå emot och hantera effekterna av klimatförändringar. Analysen har genomförts med hjälp av en rad olika metoder vilka inkluderar litteraturstudier, författarens egna observationer under klimatförhandlingar; intervjuer med ledande tänkare inom klimatfrågan och mänskliga rättigheter; samt data insamlad genom fokusgrupper bestående av yrkesverksamma inom klimat, utveckling och mänskliga rättigheter. Avhandlingen är baserad på totalt sex artiklar som publicerats i fackgranskade tidskrifter under en femårsperiod.

Fiscal policy and private investment: latin america in a comparative perspective

The main objective of the paper is to assess the impact of fiscal variables on private investment comparing some Latin-American economies to other advanced ones. For such purposes, the authors carry out an econometric analysis for the period 1990-2008. They make use of two dynamic panel models in which they group countries with similar characteristics and development levels. In one of them, they include Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay; whereas in the second one the countries accounted for are the U.S., Canada, Spain, Korea, Ireland and Japan. They specify in both models an investment function using as arguments a wide range of variables, including those related with fiscal policy. From their results the authors infer that governments can, with higher spending, boost up the economy even when they finance spending with higher taxes. In Latin America, where income concentration is enormous, a proposal to boost up the economy through higher government expenditure financed with a progressive income tax, is even more justified.

The effects of fiscal policy after the global recession: assessing the evidences

This paper offers a commented review of the most recent empirical studies of the effects of fiscal contraction on economic growth, which have helped underpin the prescription that fiscal policy should be expansionary in coming years in order to contain economic semi-stagnation in the developed countries. The paper shows that there is ample literature showing that fiscal expansion helps the economy grow, and that fiscal contraction tends to reduce output and employment in the short term.

Public management, policy capacity, innovation and development

In this paper we discuss the question of what factors in development policy create specific forms of policy capacity and under what circumstances developmentoriented complementarities or mismatches between the public and private sectors emerge. We argue that specific forms of policy capacity emerge from three interlinked policy choices, each fundamentally evolutionary in nature: policy choices on understanding the nature and sources of technical change and innovation; on the ways of financing economic growth, in particular technical change; and on the nature of public management to deliver and implement both previous sets of policy choices. Thus, policy capacity is not so much a continuum of abilities (from less to more), but rather a variety of modes of making policy that originate from co-evolutionary processes in capitalist development. To illustrate, we briefly reflect upon how the East Asian developmental states of the 1960s-1980s and Eastern European transition policies since the 1990s led to almost opposite institutional systems for financing, designing and managing development strategies, and how this led, through co-evolutionary processes, to different forms of policy capacity.

Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa and import substitution policy

This article aims to contribute to the understanding of the process of import substitution in Sub-Saharan Africa. The process of industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa occurred in two phases: a first step, even very early during the colonial regime began around the 1920s and ended in the late forties; a second phase of industrialization began in the late fifties and gained momentum in the sixties, when import substitution was implemented more widely. Although these countries were the last to embark on the strategy of import substitution, they followed the same steps of Latin American countries, and as the structural domestic and external constraints were too strong, the failure of the policy of import substitution arrived early and the negative impact on these economies had a greater magnitude.

Effects of overvaluation and exchange rate volatility over industrial investment: empirical evidence and economic policy proposals for Brazil

The present article aims to analyze the recent behavior of real exchange rate in Brazil and its effects over investment per worker in Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. Preliminary estimates presented in the article shows an over-valuation of 48% of real exchange rate in Brazil. The reaction between the level (and volatility) of real exchange rate and investment (per worker) in Brazil is analyzed by means of a panel data econometric model for 30 sectors of Brazilian manufacturing and extractive industry. The empirical results show that the level and volatility of real exchange rate has a strong effect over investment per worker in Brazilian industry. Finally, we conclude the article presenting a proposal for a new macroeconomic regime that aims to produce an acceleration of economic growth of Brazilian economy and, by that, a catching-up process with developed countries.