An early-stage design decision-support tool for selecting building assemblies to minimise a building's life cycle energy demand

The significant effects of the building industry on the natural environment are well documented and improving the environmental performance of buildings is an on-going challenge. This is particularly the case for projects with restrictive budgets and timelines and because many existing environmental assessment tools are designed to be used too late in the design process. The use of tools during the early design stages may assist in achieving greater improvements in a building’s environmental performance. However, user-friendly tools with the ability to comprehensively compare environmental information between various building assemblies and materials, which can be easily adopted during the early design stages of a project, are not readily available. This paper presents the progress to date in developing a tool which supports building designers in identifying and selecting preferred building assemblies with the aim of minimising a building’s life cycle energy demand. The tool is based on comprehensive energy performance data for a broad range of building assemblies across all Australian climate zones. Allowing for adjustments to a set of pre-defined and user-defined assemblies the designer is able to see how assemblies perform in relation to each other. This provides valuable information to support decision-making relating to minimising the life cycle energy demand of buildings.

Using business intelligence to support the process of organizational sensemaking

Making sense of an organization overwhelmed with data becomes a problem for decision makers at all levels of business planning and operation. Although scholars have suggested several technological solutions such as business intelligence as being useful in helping busy executives to make decisions, we still know little about assisting business stakeholders in the process of understanding their organizational complexity before such decisions could even be formulated. In this paper, we investigate the opportunities in using BI technologies to make sense of a business environment. We analyze the views and opinions of developers, analysts, consultants, and users of business intelligence, who are experienced in using the technology beyond decision making to support organizational sensemaking. Our results highlight the need for creating and maintaining individual; and organizational identity and enacting this identity on the business and its environment.

Single-room usage patterns and allocation decision-making in an Australian public hospital: a sequential exploratory study

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: The aims are to (1) measure occupancy rates of single and shared rooms; (2) compare single room usage patterns and (3) explore the practice, rationale and decision-making processes associated with single rooms; across one Australian public health service.

BACKGROUND: There is a tendency in Australia and internationally to increase the proportion of single patient rooms in hospitals. To date there have been no Australian studies that investigate the use of single rooms in clinical practice.

DESIGN: This study used a sequential exploratory design with data collected in 2014.

METHODS: A descriptive survey was used to measure the use of single rooms across a two-week time frame. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with occupancy decision-makers to explore the practices, rationale decision-making process associated with single-room allocation.

RESULTS: Total bed occupancy did not fall below 99·4% during the period of data collection. Infection control was the primary reason for patients to be allocated to a single room, however, the patterns varied according to ward type and single-room availability. For occupancy decision-makers, decisions about patient allocation was a complex and challenging process, influenced and complicated by numerous factors including occupancy rates, the infection status of the patient/s, funding and patient/family preference. Bed moves were common resulting from frequent re-evaluation of need.

CONCLUSION: Apart from infection control mandates, there was little tangible evidence to guide decision-making about single-room allocation. Further work is necessary to assist nurses in their decision-making.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: There is a trend towards increasing the proportion of single rooms in new hospital builds. Coupled with the competing clinical demands for single room care, this study highlights the complexity of nursing decision-making about patient allocation to single rooms, an issue urgently requiring further attention.

iPrevent®: a tailored, web-based, decision support tool for breast cancer risk assessment and management

We aimed to develop a user-centered, web-based, decision support tool for breast cancer risk assessment and personalized risk management. Using a novel model choice algorithm, iPrevent(®) selects one of two validated breast cancer risk estimation models (IBIS or BOADICEA), based on risk factor data entered by the user. Resulting risk estimates are presented in simple language and graphic formats for easy comprehension. iPrevent(®) then presents risk-adapted, evidence-based, guideline-endorsed management options. Development was an iterative process with regular feedback from multidisciplinary experts and consumers. To verify iPrevent(®), risk factor data for 127 cases derived from the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study were entered into iPrevent(®), IBIS (v7.02), and BOADICEA (v3.0). Consistency of the model chosen by iPrevent(®) (i.e., IBIS or BOADICEA) with the programmed iPrevent(®) model choice algorithm was assessed. Estimated breast cancer risks from iPrevent(®) were compared with those attained directly from the chosen risk assessment model (IBIS or BOADICEA). Risk management interventions displayed by iPrevent(®) were assessed for appropriateness. Risk estimation model choice was 100 % consistent with the programmed iPrevent(®) logic. Discrepant 10-year and residual lifetime risk estimates of >1 % were found for 1 and 4 cases, respectively, none was clinically significant (maximal variation 1.4 %). Risk management interventions suggested by iPrevent(®) were 100 % appropriate. iPrevent(®) successfully integrates the IBIS and BOADICEA risk assessment models into a decision support tool that provides evidence-based, risk-adapted risk management advice. This may help to facilitate precision breast cancer prevention discussions between women and their healthcare providers.

Cost and feasibility of a barrier to halt the spread of invasive cane toads in arid Australia: incorporating expert knowledge into model-based decision-making

1. Active engagement with practitioners is a crucial component of model-based decision-making in conservation management; it can assist with data acquisition, improve models and help narrow the 'knowing-doing' gap.
2. We worked with practitioners of one of the worst invasive species in Australia, the cane toad Rhinella marina, to revise a model that estimates the effectiveness of landscape barriers to contain spread. The original model predicted that the invasion could be contained by managing artificial watering points on pastoral properties, but was initially met with scepticism by practitioners, in part due to a lack of engagement during model development.
3. We held a workshop with practitioners and experts in cane toad biology. Using structured decision-making, we elicited concerns about the original model, revised its structure, updated relevant input data, added an economic component and found the most cost-effective location for a barrier across a range of fixed budgets and management scenarios. We then conducted scenario analyses to test the sensitivity of management decisions to model revisions.
4. We found that toad spread could be contained for all of the scenarios tested. Our modelling suggests a barrier could cost $4·5 M (2015 AUD) over 50 years for the most likely landscape scenario. The incorporation of practitioner knowledge into the model was crucial. As well as improving engagement, when we incorporated practitioner concerns (particularly regarding the effects of irrigation and dwellings on toad spread), we found a different location for the optimal barrier compared to a previously published study (Tingley et al. 2013).
5. Synthesis and applications. Through engagement with practitioners, we turned an academic modelling exercise into a decision-support tool that integrated local information, and considered more realistic scenarios and constraints. Active engagement with practitioners led to productive revisions of a model that estimates the effectiveness of a landscape barrier to contain spread of the invasive cane toad R. marina. Benefits also include greater confidence in model predictions, improving our assessment of the cost and feasibility of containing the spread of toads.

Liveable Yarra - planning for the city's future using a deliberative process

Community engagement on planning processes is traditionally adversarial,with residents reacting to a development proposal or local amenity impacts.With the significant increase in inner-urban medium-high density developments andsubsequent pressure on physical and social infrastructure, the City of Yarra embarked on anew approach to the rewrite of its Planning Scheme. This paper describes the process by whichthe City of Yarra involved the community to help address some of the dilemmas and trade-offswhich are necessarily part of planning in an inner-urban area.To hear from a broad range of voices and receive informed recommendations, a deliberativeprocess, the Liveable Yarra project was formed. It aimed to have an in-depth two-wayconversation with the community about how Yarra can adapt to the challenges andopportunities brought about by growth and change.A 60 member People’s Panel, comprising a cross section of Yarra’s community, came togetherto learn, debate and provide recommendations to Council on the topics of housing, transport,built form and the local economy. The Panel was supplemented by feedback from a householdbaseline survey, Council’s Advisory Committees and targeted workshops with hard-to-reachcommunities.This was the first time a deliberative approach has been undertaken for a topic as multifacetedand far-reaching as rewriting a Local Government Planning Scheme. It allowed participantsto gain an understanding of the complexity of planning issues and the challenges this presentsto Council decision making. It’s expected that the revised Planning Scheme will moreaccurately reflect community expectations, improve liveability and enhance communityunderstanding of the complex issues faced by Council in planning the city’s future.Furthermore, in describing this approach, along with reflections from those Councillors,planners and community members involved, we hope to provide a model which other councilscould embrace to enhance their existing planning processes.

Assessing Decision Making Skill in Complex and Dynamic Environments Using Representative and Simulated Tasks

Traditional decision making research has often focused on one's ability to choose from a set of prefixed options, ignoring the process by which decision makers generate courses of action (i.e., options) in-situ (Klein, 1993). In complex and dynamic domains, this option generation process is particularly critical to understanding how successful decisions are made (Zsambok & Klein, 1997). When generating response options for oneself to pursue (i.e., during the intervention-phase of decision making) previous research has supported quick and intuitive heuristics, such as the Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003). When generating predictive options for others in the environment (i.e., during the assessment-phase of decision making), previous research has supported the situational-model-building process described by Long Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; see Ward, Ericsson, & Williams, 2013). In the first three experiments, the claims of TTF and LTWM are tested during assessment- and intervention-phase tasks in soccer. To test what other environmental constraints may dictate the use of these cognitive mechanisms, the claims of these models are also tested in the presence and absence of time pressure. In addition to understanding the option generation process, it is important that researchers in complex and dynamic domains also develop tools that can be used by `real-world' professionals. For this reason, three more experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a new online assessment of perceptual-cognitive skill in soccer. This test differentiated between skill groups and predicted performance on a previously established test and predicted option generation behavior. The test also outperformed domain-general cognitive tests, but not a domain-specific knowledge test when predicting skill group membership. Implications for theory and training, and future directions for the development of applied tools are discussed.

Understanding the Impact of the Property Tax Appeal Process on Assessment Uniformity: Procedures, Structures, and Outcomes

Property taxes serve as a vital revenue source for local governments. The revenues derived from the property tax function as the primary funding source for a variety of critical local public service systems. Property tax appeal systems serve as quasi-administrative-judicial mechanisms intended to assure the public that property tax assessments are correct, fair, and equitable. Despite these important functions, there is a paucity of empirical research related to property tax appeal systems. This study contributes to property tax literature by identifying who participates in the property tax appeal process and examining their motivations for participation. In addition, the study sought to determine whether patterns of use and success in appeal systems affected the distribution of the tax burden. Data were collected by means of a survey distributed to single-family property owners from two Florida counties. In addition, state and county documents were analyzed to determine appeal patterns and examine the impact on assessment uniformity, over a three-year period. The survey data provided contextual evidence that single-family property owners are not as troubled by property taxes as they are by the conduct of local government officials. The analyses of the decision to appeal indicated that more expensive properties and properties excluded from initial uniformity analyses were more likely to be appealed, while properties with homestead exemptions were less likely to be appealed. The value change analyses indicated that appeals are clustered in certain geographical areas; however, these areas do not always experience a greater percentage of the value changes. Interestingly, professional representation did not increase the probability of obtaining a reduction in value. Other relationships between the variables were discovered, but often with weak predictive ability. Findings from the assessment uniformity analyses were also interesting. The results indicated that the appeals mechanisms in both counties improved assessment uniformity. On average, appealed properties exhibited greater horizontal and vertical inequities, as compared to non-appealed properties, prior to the appeals process. After, the appeal process was completed; the indicators of horizontal and vertical equity were largely improved. However, there were some indications of regressivity in the final year of the study.

Internationalization process of TUBOFURO

The central objective of this case study was to formulate the strategy of internationalization of Tubofuro®, discriminating relevant points from its design to its implementation. This is a company located in Leiria, Ortigosa parish, which operates, among others, in the Portuguese PVC pipes industry for which currently the domestic market is clearly insufficient, given the oversupply compared to demand. Being Tubofuro® an exporting company since 2004, the work here developed specifically intended to increase sales to the foreign market, with this representing 45% of total company's business in 2018 increasing of the number of markets through new partners to enable the positioning of Tubofuro® among the main players in each market, particularly in South American markets, North African and European. To achieve the above objectives presented a case study was applied, centred on Tubofuro® company, target of the internationalization strategy. The search carried out for the formulation of the strategy has been supported on a thorough analysis of the external environment and internal characteristics of the company, for which were crossed different types of data, quantitative, qualitative, secondary data and primary data. From this work resulted the development of internationalization and international marketing plan for the next three years, whose objectives are based on entrance and consequent growth in new markets, including the market Chilean, Peruvian, Mexican, Argentine, Algerian and German, as well growth in the presence and turnover in the markets for which Tubofuro® already exports regularly, for example Spain, France, Tunisia and Morocco. Based on the production capacity of Tubofuro® company, which will not suffer any kind of investment for incrementing but only to update, it is expected that the appropriate response capacity for the company is 8 regular markets, and could eventually arise sporadic exports to other markets not interfering with the normal production capacity of the company. The suggestion of the presented markets resulted from the study of the final price based on the one that local customers purchase a product equal or similar to Tubofuro® and the number of potential existing customers in each market. The internationalization model known as Uppsala Model corresponds to the strategy adopted by the company to its internationalization process, taking into account the philosophy of senior management and the risk aversion of them. The sales team Tubofuro® demand for each market, export a full container registering customer feedback, including quality and flow capacity in the market in order to seek a partnership agreement with a local distributor, which allows the Tubofuro® go to step two above mentioned model. The partnership agreement is based on mutual commitment to technical cooperation and trade between the Tubofuro® and partner, in order to increase the performance capacity among local customers. Only if the market presents a greater demand to our supply capacity and be justified by cost / benefit ratio, the entry into this market through a joint venture or subsidiary is that the decision will be taken. Although this is a case study, which means that is adjusted to the concrete case Tubofuro® preventing generalization of findings, we believe that this work can be a useful example for other companies in the internationalization process or the methodology adopted in formulating strategy or the outputs and conclusions drawn.

Using business intelligence to support the process of organizational sensemaking.

Morteza’s thesis investigated the opportunities in using BI technologies to make sense of a business environment. The results of his research highlighted the need for creating and maintaining an identity for Business Intelligence at both individual and organizational level and enacting this identity on the business and its environment.

Evaluation of deterministic and complex analytical hierarchy process methods for agricultural land suitability analysis in a changing climate

Land suitability analysis is employed to evaluate the appropriateness of land for a particular purpose whilst integrating both qualitative and quantitative inputs, which can be continuous in nature. However, in agricultural modelling there is often a disregard of this contiguous aspect. Therefore, some parametric procedures for suitability analysis compartmentalise units into defined membership classes. This imposition of crisp boundaries neglects the continuous formations found throughout nature and overlooks differences and inherent uncertainties found in the modelling. This research will compare two approaches to suitability analysis over three differing methods. The primary approach will use an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), while the other approach will use a Fuzzy AHP over two methods; Fitted Fuzzy AHP and Nested Fuzzy AHP. Secondary to this, each method will be assessed into how it behaves in a climate change scenario to understand and highlight the role of uncertainties in model conceptualisation and structure. Outputs and comparisons between each method, in relation to area, proportion of membership classes and spatial representation, showed that fuzzy modelling techniques detailed a more robust and continuous output. In particular the Nested Fuzzy AHP was concluded to be more pertinent, as it incorporated complex modelling techniques, as well as the initial AHP framework. Through this comparison and assessment of model behaviour, an evaluation of each methods predictive capacity and relevance for decision-making purposes in agricultural applications is gained.

Boosting imbalanced data learning with Wiener process oversampling

Learning from imbalanced data is a challenging task in a wide range of applications, which attracts significant research efforts from machine learning and data mining community. As a natural approach to this issue, oversampling balances the training samples through replicating existing samples or synthesizing new samples. In general, synthesization outperforms replication by supplying additional information on the minority class. However, the additional information needs to follow the same normal distribution of the training set, which further constrains the new samples within the predefined range of training set. In this paper, we present the Wiener process oversampling (WPO) technique that brings the physics phenomena into sample synthesization. WPO constructs a robust decision region by expanding the attribute ranges in training set while keeping the same normal distribution. The satisfactory performance of WPO can be achieved with much lower computing complexity. In addition, by integrating WPO with ensemble learning, the WPOBoost algorithm outperformsmany prevalent imbalance learning solutions.

Are Decision Makers Rational in Ambiguous Situations?

This research work analyzes human behavior in complex situations and explains how decisions makers act in ambiguous situations. The objective of this research work is to study the sunk cost effect and the completion percentage effect of an investment project in a decision-making process. This research work uses a “retrospective rationality” approach to justify irrational behaviors such as the sunk cost effect, the completion percentage effect of an investment project and the irrational escalation since decision-makers are repeatedly affected by the decisions on past irreversible investments. This research work evaluates three sunk cost levels, and three completion percentage levels of an investment project, besides three neutral situations in a business environment and a personal decision situation. Graduate students in three Portuguese Management Schools responded to the questionnaires. Model results show that the value of resources invested is crucial for understanding the students’ rational behavior, who participated in this research work. These results disclose statistical evidence that the information on sunk costs and completion percentage of an investment project determines human behavior under irrational escalation in ambiguous situations. As a consequence, decision makers have the opportunity to interpret their decisions, since the scenarios do not allow a unique definition of rational choice, it is not correct to judge the irrational decision makers that decide to continue to invest in ambiguous situations. Keywords: Human Behavior, Sunk costs Effect, Completion Percentage Effect of an Investment Project, Irrational Escalation, Ambiguous Situations.

The Selection Process of Applications to the Portuguese Innovation Incentive System: Who Gets Financial Support?

Public policies to support entrepreneurship and innovation play a vital role when firms have difficulties in accessing external finance. However, some authors have found evidence of long-term inefficiency in subsidized firms (Bernini and Pelligrini, 2011; Cerqua and Pelligrini, 2014) and ineffectiveness of public funds (Jorge and Suárez, 2011). The aim of the paper is to assess the effectiveness in the selection process of applications to public financial support for stimulating innovation. Using a binary choice model, we investigate which factors influence the probability of obtaining public support for an innovative investment. The explanatory variables are connected to firm profile, the characteristics of the project and the macroeconomic environment. The analysis is based on the case study of the Portuguese Innovation.Incentive System (PIIS) and on the applications managed by the Alentejo Regional Operational Program in the period 2007 – 2013. The results show that the selection process is more focused on the expected impact of the project than on the firm’s past performance. Factors that influence the credit risk and the decision to grant a bank loan do not seem to influence the government evaluator regarding the funding of some projects. Past activities in R&D do not significantly affect the probability of having an application approved under the PIIS, whereas an increase in the number of patents and the number of skilled jobs are both relevant factors. Nevertheless, some evidence of firms’ short-term inefficiency was found, in that receiving public financial support is linked to a smaller increase in productivity compared to non-approved firm applications. At the macroeconomic level, periods with a higher cost of capital in financial markets are linked to a greater probability of getting an application for public support approved, which could be associated with the effectiveness of public support in correcting market failings.