Evaluating raw ensembles with the continuous ranked probability score

The continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is a frequently used scoring rule. In contrast with many other scoring rules, the CRPS evaluates cumulative distribution functions. An ensemble of forecasts can easily be converted into a piecewise constant cumulative distribution function with steps at the ensemble members. This renders the CRPS a convenient scoring rule for the evaluation of ‘raw’ ensembles, obviating the need for sophisticated ensemble model output statistics or dressing methods prior to evaluation. In this article, a relation between the CRPS score and the quantile score is established. The evaluation of ‘raw’ ensembles using the CRPS is discussed in this light. It is shown that latent in this evaluation is an interpretation of the ensemble as quantiles but with non-uniform levels. This needs to be taken into account if the ensemble is evaluated further, for example with rank histograms.

Initialisation and predictability of the AMOC over the last 50 years in a climate model

The mechanisms involved in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) decadal variability and predictability over the last 50 years are analysed in the IPSL–CM5A–LR model using historical and initialised simulations. The initialisation procedure only uses nudging towards sea surface temperature anomalies with a physically based restoring coefficient. When compared to two independent AMOC reconstructions, both the historical and nudged ensemble simulations exhibit skill at reproducing AMOC variations from 1977 onwards, and in particular two maxima occurring respectively around 1978 and 1997. We argue that one source of skill is related to the large Mount Agung volcanic eruption starting in 1963, which reset an internal 20-year variability cycle in the North Atlantic in the model. This cycle involves the East Greenland Current intensity, and advection of active tracers along the subpolar gyre, which leads to an AMOC maximum around 15 years after the Mount Agung eruption. The 1997 maximum occurs approximately 20 years after the former one. The nudged simulations better reproduce this second maximum than the historical simulations. This is due to the initialisation of a cooling of the convection sites in the 1980s under the effect of a persistent North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) positive phase, a feature not captured in the historical simulations. Hence we argue that the 20-year cycle excited by the 1963 Mount Agung eruption together with the NAO forcing both contributed to the 1990s AMOC maximum. These results support the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic in the observations. Hindcasts following the CMIP5 protocol are launched from a nudged simulation every 5 years for the 1960–2005 period. They exhibit significant correlation skill score as compared to an independent reconstruction of the AMOC from 4-year lead-time average. This encouraging result is accompanied by increased correlation skills in reproducing the observed 2-m air temperature in the bordering regions of the North Atlantic as compared to non-initialized simulations. To a lesser extent, predicted precipitation tends to correlate with the nudged simulation in the tropical Atlantic. We argue that this skill is due to the initialisation and predictability of the AMOC in the present prediction system. The mechanisms evidenced here support the idea of volcanic eruptions as a pacemaker for internal variability of the AMOC. Together with the existence of a 20-year cycle in the North Atlantic they propose a novel and complementary explanation for the AMOC variations over the last 50 years.

Case study part 1: how to calculate appropriate deterministic long-term toxicity to exposure rates (TERs) for birds and mammals

In the European Union, first-tier assessment of the long-term risk to birds and mammals from pesticides is based on calculation of a deterministic long-term toxicity/exposure ratio(TERlt). The ratio is developed from generic herbivores and insectivores and applied to all species. This paper describes two case studies that implement proposed improvements to the way long-term risk is assessed. These refined methods require calculation of a TER for each of five identified phases of reproduction (phase-specific TERs) and use of adjusted No Observed Effect Levels (NOELs)to incorporate variation in species sensitivity to pesticides. They also involve progressive refinement of the exposure estimate so that it applies to particular species, rather than generic indicators, and relates spraying date to onset of reproduction. The effect of using these new methods on the assessment of risk is described. Each refinement did not necessarily alter the calculated TER value in a way that was either predictable or consistent across both case studies. However, use of adjusted NOELs always reduced TERs, and relating spraying date to onset of reproduction increased most phase-specific TERs. The case studies suggested that the current first-tier TERlt assessment may underestimate risk in some circumstances and that phase-specific assessments can help identify appropriate risk-reduction measures. The way in which deterministic phase-specific assessments can currently be implemented to enhance first-tier assessment is outlined.

Gut microbiome modulates the toxicity of hydrazine: a metabonomic study

The influence of gut microbiota on the toxicity and metabolism of hydrazine has been investigated in germ-free and ‘conventional’ Sprague Dawley rats using 1H NMR based metabonomic analysis of urine and plasma. Toxicity was more severe in germ-free rats compared with conventional rats for equivalent exposures indicating that bacterial presence altered the nature or extent of response to hydrazine and that the toxic response can vary markedly in the absence of a functional microbiome.

Odd deposits and average practice. A critical history of the concept of structured deposition.

This paper presents a critical history of the concept of ‘structured deposition’. It examines the long-term development of this idea in archaeology, from its origins in the early 1980s through to the present day, looking at how it has been moulded and transformed. On the basis of this historical account, a number of problems are identified with the way that ‘structured deposition’ has generally been conceptualized and applied. It is suggested that the range of deposits described under a single banner as being ‘structured’ is unhelpfully broad, and that archaeologists have been too willing to view material culture patterning as intentionally produced – the result of symbolic or ritual action. It is also argued that the material signatures of ‘everyday’ practice have been undertheorized and all too often ignored. Ultimately, it is suggested that if we are ever to understand fully the archaeological signatures of past practice, it is vital to consider the ‘everyday’ as well as the ‘ritual’ processes which lie behind the patterns we uncover in the ground.

Cesium toxicity in Arabidopsis

Cesium (Cs) is chemically similar to potassium (K). However, although K is an essential element, Cs is toxic to plants. Two contrasting hypotheses to explain Cs toxicity have been proposed: (1) extracellular Cs+ prevents K+ uptake and, thereby, induces K starvation; and (2) intracellular Cs+ interacts with vital K+-binding sites in proteins, either competitively or noncompetitively, impairing their activities. We tested these hypotheses with Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana). Increasing the Cs concentration in the agar (Cs(agar)) on which Arabidopsis were grown reduced shoot growth. Increasing the K concentration in the agar (K(agad)) increased the Cs(agar) at which Cs toxicity was observed. However, although increasing Cs(agar) reduced shoot K concentration (K(shoot)), the decrease in shoot growth appeared unrelated to K(shoot) per se. Furthermore, the changes in gene expression in Cs-intoxicated plants differed from those of K-starved plants, suggesting that Cs intoxication was not perceived genetically solely as K starvation. In addition to reducing K(shoot) increasing Cs(agar) also increased shoot Cs concentration (Cs(shoot)), but shoot growth appeared unrelated to Cs(shoot) per se. The relationship between shoot growth and Cs(shoot)/Kt(shoot) suggested that, at a nontoxic Cs(shoot) growth was determined by K(shoot) but that the growth of Cs-intoxicated plants was related to the Cs(shoot)/K(shoot) quotient. This is consistent with Cs intoxication resulting from competition between K+ and Cs+ for K+-binding sites on essential proteins.

'Score it upon my taille': the use (and abuse) of tallies by the medieval Exchequer

The paper traces the evolution of the tally from a receipt for cash payments into the treasury, to proof of payments made by royal officials outside of the treasury and finally to an assignment of revenue to be paid out by royal officials. Each of these processes is illustrated by examples drawn from the Exchequer records and explains their significance for royal finance and for historians working on the Exchequer records.

Local and average structure in zinc cyanide: towards an understanding of the atomistic origin of negative thermal expansion

Neutron diffraction at 11.4 and 295 K and solid-state 67Zn NMR are used to determine both the local and average structures in the disordered, negative thermal expansion (NTE) material, Zn(CN)2. Solid-state NMR not only confirms that there is head-to-tail disorder of the C≡N groups present in the solid, but yields information about the relative abundances of the different Zn(CN)4-n(NC)n tetrahedral species, which do not follow a simple binomial distribution. The Zn(CN)4 and Zn(NC)4 species occur with much lower probabilities than are predicted by binomial theory, supporting the conclusion that they are of higher energy than the other local arrangements. The lowest energy arrangement is Zn(CN)2(NC)2. The use of total neutron diffraction at 11.4 K, with analysis of both the Bragg diffraction and the derived total correlation function, yields the first experimental determination of the individual Zn−N and Zn−C bond lengths as 1.969(2) and 2.030(2) Å, respectively. The very small difference in bond lengths, of ~0.06 Å, means that it is impossible to obtain these bond lengths using Bragg diffraction in isolation. Total neutron diffraction also provides information on both the average and local atomic displacements responsible for NTE in Zn(CN)2. The principal motions giving rise to NTE are shown to be those in which the carbon and nitrogen atoms within individual Zn−C≡N−Zn linkages are displaced to the same side of the Zn···Zn axis. Displacements of the carbon and nitrogen atoms to opposite sides of the Zn···Zn axis, suggested previously in X-ray studies as being responsible for NTE behavior, in fact make negligible contribution at temperatures up to 295 K.

Curcumin protects organotypic hippocampal slice cultures 4 from Ab1–42 -induced synaptic toxicity

Increasing evidence demonstrates that beta-amyloid (Ab) is toxic to synapses, resulting in the progressive dismantling of neuronal circuits. Counteract the synaptotoxic effects of Ab could be particularly relevant for providing effective treatments for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Curcumin was recently reported to improve learning and memory in animal models of AD. Little is currently known about the specific mechanisms by which Ab affects neuronal excitability and curcumin ameliorates synaptic transmission in the hippocampus. Organotypic hippocampal slice cultures exposed to Ab1–42 were used to study the neuroprotective effects of curcumin through a spectral analysis of multi-electrode array (MEA) recordings of spontaneous neuronal activity. Curcumin counteracted both deleterious effects of Ab; the initial synaptic dysfunction and the later neuronal death. The analysis of MEA recordings of spontaneous neuronal activity showed an attenuation of signal propagation induced by Ab before cell death and curcumin-induced alterations to local field potential (LFP) phase coherence. Curcumin-mediated attenuation of Ab-induced synaptic dysfunction involved regulation of synaptic proteins, namely phospho-CaMKII and phosphosynapsin I. Taken together, our results expand the neuroprotective role of curcumin to a synaptic level. The identification of these mechanisms underlying the effects of curcumin may lead to new targets for future therapies for AD.

Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems.

In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.

Gender and the evaluation of research

This study examines if and how gender relates to research evaluation via panel assessment and journal ratings lists. Using data from UK business schools we find no evidence that the proportion of women in a submission for panel assessment affected the score received by the submitting institution. However, we do find that women on average receive lower scores according to some journal ratings lists. There are important differences in the rated quality of journals that men and women publish in across the sub-disciplines with men publishing significantly more research in the highest rated accountancy, information management and strategy journals. In addition, women who are able to utilise networks to co-author with individuals outside their institution are able to publish in higher-rated journals, although the same is not true for men; women who are attributed with “individual staff circumstances” (e.g. maternity leave or part-time working) have lower scores according to journal ratings lists.

Improving transmission reliability of low-power medium access control protocols using average diversity combining

Embedded computer systems equipped with wireless communication transceivers are nowadays used in a vast number of application scenarios. Energy consumption is important in many of these scenarios, as systems are battery operated and long maintenance-free operation is required. To achieve this goal, embedded systems employ low-power communication transceivers and protocols. However, currently used protocols cannot operate efficiently when communication channels are highly erroneous. In this study, we show how average diversity combining (ADC) can be used in state-of-the-art low-power communication protocols. This novel approach improves transmission reliability and in consequence energy consumption and transmission latency in the presence of erroneous channels. Using a testbed, we show that highly erroneous channels are indeed a common occurrence in situations, where low-power systems are used and we demonstrate that ADC improves low-power communication dramatically.

The role of the harmonic vector average in motion integration

The local speeds of object contours vary systematically with the cosine of the angle between the normal component of the local velocity and the global object motion direction. An array of Gabor elements whose speed changes with local spatial orientation in accordance with this pattern can appear to move as a single surface. The apparent direction of motion of plaids and Gabor arrays has variously been proposed to result from feature tracking, vector addition and vector averaging in addition to the geometrically correct global velocity as indicated by the intersection of constraints (IOC) solution. Here a new combination rule, the harmonic vector average (HVA), is introduced, as well as a new algorithm for computing the IOC solution. The vector sum can be discounted as an integration strategy as it increases with the number of elements. The vector average over local vectors that vary in direction always provides an underestimate of the true global speed. The HVA, however, provides the correct global speed and direction for an unbiased sample of local velocities with respect to the global motion direction, as is the case for a simple closed contour. The HVA over biased samples provides an aggregate velocity estimate that can still be combined through an IOC computation to give an accurate estimate of the global velocity, which is not true of the vector average. Psychophysical results for type II Gabor arrays show perceived direction and speed falls close to the IOC direction for Gabor arrays having a wide range of orientations but the IOC prediction fails as the mean orientation shifts away from the global motion direction and the orientation range narrows. In this case perceived velocity generally defaults to the HVA.

Heme oxygenase-1 protects against Alzheimer’s amyloid-β1-42 induced toxicity via carbon monoxide production

Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1), an inducible enzyme up-regulated in Alzheimer‟s disease (AD), catabolises heme to biliverdin, Fe2+ and carbon monoxide (CO). CO can protect neurones from oxidative stress-induced apoptosis by inhibiting Kv2.1 channels, which mediate cellular K+ efflux as an early step in the apoptotic cascade. Since apoptosis contributes to the neuronal loss associated with amyloid β peptide (Aβ) toxicity in AD, we investigated the protective effects of HO-1 and CO against Aβ1-42 toxicity in SH-SY5Y cells, employing cells stably transfected with empty vector or expressing the cellular prion protein, PrPc, and rat primary hippocampal neurons. Aβ1-42 (containing protofibrils) caused a concentrationdependent decrease in cell viability, attributable at least in part to induction of apoptosis, with the PrPc expressing cells showing greater susceptibility to Aβ1-42 toxicity. Pharmacological induction or genetic over-expression of HO-1 significantly ameliorated the effects of Aβ1-42. The CO-donor CORM-2 protected cells against Aβ1-42 toxicity in a concentration-dependent manner. Electrophysiological studies revealed no differences in the outward current pre- and post-Aβ1-42 treatment suggesting that K+ channel activity is unaffected in these cells. Instead, Aβ toxicity was reduced by the L-type Ca2+ channel blocker nifedipine, and by the CaMKKII inhibitor, STO-609. Aβ also activated the downstream kinase, AMP-dependent protein kinase (AMPK). CO prevented this activation of AMPK. Our findings indicate that HO-1 protects against Aβ toxicity via production of CO. Protection does not arise from inhibition of apoptosis-associated K+ efflux, but rather by inhibition of AMPK activation, which has been recently implicated in the toxic effects of Aβ. These data provide a novel, beneficial effect of CO which adds to its growing potential as a therapeutic agent.

On flow reversal boundaries and transpolar voltage in average models of high-latitude convection

The implications of polar cap expansions, contractions and movements for empirical models of high-latitude plasma convection are examined. Some of these models have been generated by directly averaging flow measurements from large numbers of satellite passes or radar scans; others have employed more complex means to combine data taken at different times into large-scale patterns of flow. In all cases, the models have implicitly adopted the assumption that the polar cap is in steady state: they have all characterized the ionospheric flow in terms of the prevailing conditions (e.g. the interplanetary magnetic field and/or some index of terrestrial magnetic activity) without allowance for their history. On long enough time scales, the polar cap is indeed in steady state but on time scales shorter than a few hours it is not and can oscillate in size and position. As a result, the method used to combine the data can influence the nature of the convection reversal boundary and the transpolar voltage in the derived model. This paper discusses a variety of effects due to time-dependence in relation to some ionospheric convection models which are widely applied. The effects are shown to be varied and to depend upon the procedure adopted to compile the model.