Verification of cloud-fraction forecasts

Cloud radar and lidar can be used to evaluate the skill of numerical weather prediction models in forecasting the timing and placement of clouds, but care must be taken in choosing the appropriate metric of skill to use due to the non- Gaussian nature of cloud-fraction distributions. We compare the properties of a number of different verification measures and conclude that of existing measures the Log of Odds Ratio is the most suitable for cloud fraction. We also propose a new measure, the Symmetric Extreme Dependency Score, which has very attractive properties, being equitable (for large samples), difficult to hedge and independent of the frequency of occurrence of the quantity being verified. We then use data from five European ground-based sites and seven forecast models, processed using the ‘Cloudnet’ analysis system, to investigate the dependence of forecast skill on cloud fraction threshold (for binary skill scores), height, horizontal scale and (for the Met Office and German Weather Service models) forecast lead time. The models are found to be least skillful at predicting the timing and placement of boundary-layer clouds and most skilful at predicting mid-level clouds, although in the latter case they tend to underestimate mean cloud fraction when cloud is present. It is found that skill decreases approximately inverse-exponentially with forecast lead time, enabling a forecast ‘half-life’ to be estimated. When considering the skill of instantaneous model snapshots, we find typical values ranging between 2.5 and 4.5 days. Copyright c 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Spectroscopic properties and electronic structures of 17-electron half-sandwich ruthenium acetylide complexes, [Ru(CCAr)(L2)Cp′]+ (Ar=phenyl, p-tolyl, 1-naphthyl, 9-anthryl; L2=(PPh3)2, Cp′=Cp; L2=dppe; Cp′=Cp∗)

A series of half-sandwich bis(phosphine) ruthenium acetylide complexes [Ru(C CAr)(L-2)Cp'] (Ar = phenyl, p-tolyl, 1-naphthyl, 9-anthryl; L2 = (PPh3)(2), Cp' = Cp; L-2 = dppe; Cp' = Cp*) have been examined using electrochemical and spectroelectrochemical methods. One-electron oxidation of these complexes gave the corresponding radical cations [Ru(C CAr)(L2)Cp'](+). Those cations based on Ru(dppe)Cp*, or which feature a para-tolyl acetylide substituent, are more chemically robust than examples featuring the Ru(PPh3)(2)Cp moiety, permitting good quality UV-Vis-NIR and IR spectroscopic data to be obtained using spectroelectrochemical methods. On the basis of TD DFT calculations, the low energy (NIR) absorption bands in the experimental electronic spectra for most of these radical cations are assigned to transitions between the beta-HOSO and beta-LUSO, both of which have appreciable metal d and ethynyl pi character. However, the large contribution from the anthryl moiety to the frontier orbitals of [Ru(C CC14H9)(L2)CP'](+) suggests compounds containing this moiety should be described as metal-stabilised anthryl radical cations.

Sleeping with half open eyes: dreams and realities in The Cry of the Owl

This article is a close analysis of The Cry of the Owl (Thraves, 2009). It is also part of larger project to bring together traditions of detailed criticism with those of production history, which culminates in second article on the film due to be published in 2011. The detail of the argument concerns analysing a range of the film’s key signifying systems, with a particular interest in the way the film explores the gap between images / impressions and characters’ realities; engages in a complex way with generic traditions and modes of address; establishes complex patterns of connection and contrast through blocking, camera strategies and narrative structure.

‘Anything can happen in the next half-hour’: Gerry Anderson’s transnational science fiction

Gerry Anderson’s 1960s puppet series have hybrid identities in relation to their medial, geographical, and production histories. This chapter ranges over his science fiction series from Supercar (1961) to Joe 90 (1968), arguing that Anderson’s television science fiction in that period crossed many kinds of boundary and border. Anderson’s television series were a compromise between his desire to make films for adults versus an available market for children’s television puppet programs, and aimed to appeal to a cross-generational family audience. They were made on film, using novel effects, for a UK television production culture that still relied largely on live and videotaped production. While commissioned by British ITV companies, the programs had notable success in the USA, achieving national networked screening as well as syndication, and they were designed to be transatlantic products. The transnational hero teams and security organisations featured in the series supported this internationalism, and simultaneously negotiated between the cultural meanings of Britishness and Americanness. By discussing their means of production, the aesthetic and narrative features of the programs, their institutional contexts, and their international distribution, this chapter argues that Anderson’s series suggest ways of rethinking the boundaries of British science fiction television in the 1960s.

Boundary layer dynamics over London, UK, as observed using Doppler lidar during REPARTEE-II

Urban boundary layers (UBLs) can be highly complex due to the heterogeneous roughness and heating of the surface, particularly at night. Due to a general lack of observations, it is not clear whether canonical models of boundary layer mixing are appropriate in modelling air quality in urban areas. This paper reports Doppler lidar observations of turbulence profiles in the centre of London, UK, as part of the second REPARTEE campaign in autumn 2007. Lidar-measured standard deviation of vertical velocity averaged over 30 min intervals generally compared well with in situ sonic anemometer measurements at 190 m on the BT telecommunications Tower. During calm, nocturnal periods, the lidar underestimated turbulent mixing due mainly to limited sampling rate. Mixing height derived from the turbulence, and aerosol layer height from the backscatter profiles, showed similar diurnal cycles ranging from c. 300 to 800 m, increasing to c. 200 to 850 m under clear skies. The aerosol layer height was sometimes significantly different to the mixing height, particularly at night under clear skies. For convective and neutral cases, the scaled turbulence profiles resembled canonical results; this was less clear for the stable case. Lidar observations clearly showed enhanced mixing beneath stratocumulus clouds reaching down on occasion to approximately half daytime boundary layer depth. On one occasion the nocturnal turbulent structure was consistent with a nocturnal jet, suggesting a stable layer. Given the general agreement between observations and canonical turbulence profiles, mixing timescales were calculated for passive scalars released at street level to reach the BT Tower using existing models of turbulent mixing. It was estimated to take c. 10 min to diffuse up to 190 m, rising to between 20 and 50 min at night, depending on stability. Determination of mixing timescales is important when comparing to physico-chemical processes acting on pollutant species measured simultaneously at both the ground and at the BT Tower during the campaign. From the 3 week autumnal data-set there is evidence for occasional stable layers in central London, effectively decoupling surface emissions from air aloft.

Options for enhancing the biodiversity value of intensive livestock farms: experience from the English agri-environment schemes

Permanent grassland makes up a greater proportion of the agricultural area in the UK and Ireland than in any other EU country, representing 60% and 72% of UAA respectively (Eurostat 2007). Of the permanent grassland in the UK, approximately half (about 6 million hectares) comprises improved grassland on moist or free-draining neutral soils typical of lowland livestock farms. These swards tend to have low plant species richness and are typically dominated by perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne). The aim of this paper is to review the ways in which biodiversity of such farmland can be enhanced, focussing on the evidence behind management options in English agri-environment schemes (AES) at a range of scales and utilising a range of mechanisms.

New half-sandwich heterobimetallic CpMPt (M=Rh, Ir) dithiolato bridged complexes

Cationic heterobimetallic complexes 5–7 [(PPh3)2Pt(μ-edt)MClCp′)]BF4 (edt=−S(CH2)2S−; 5: M=Rh and Cp′=η5-C5H5; 6: M=Rh and Cp′=η5-C5Me5 and 7: M=Ir and Cp′=η5-C5Me5) were prepared by reaction of [Pt(edt)(PPh3)2] with [Cp′ClM(μ-Cl)2MClCp′] in THF in the presence of two equivalents of AgBF4. The crystalline structure of 5 was determined by X-ray diffraction methods. Cationic heterobimetallic complexes [(PPh3)2Pt(μ-S(CH2)2S)MClCp′)]BF4 (M=Rh, Ir) were prepared. The crystalline structure of [(PPh3)2Pt(μ-edt)RhClCp)]BF4 was determined by X-ray diffraction methods.

On the Convergence of Two-Stage Iterative Processes for Solving Linear Equations

This paper considers two-stage iterative processes for solving the linear system $Af = b$. The outer iteration is defined by $Mf^{k + 1} = Nf^k + b$, where $M$ is a nonsingular matrix such that $M - N = A$. At each stage $f^{k + 1} $ is computed approximately using an inner iteration process to solve $Mv = Nf^k + b$ for $v$. At the $k$th outer iteration, $p_k $ inner iterations are performed. It is shown that this procedure converges if $p_k \geqq P$ for some $P$ provided that the inner iteration is convergent and that the outer process would converge if $f^{k + 1} $ were determined exactly at every step. Convergence is also proved under more specialized conditions, and for the procedure where $p_k = p$ for all $k$, an estimate for $p$ is obtained which optimizes the convergence rate. Examples are given for systems arising from the numerical solution of elliptic partial differential equations and numerical results are presented.

Treatment of the elderly colorectal cancer patient: SIOG expert recommendations.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the commonest malignancies of Western countries, with approximately half the incidence occurring in patients >70 years of age. Elderly CRC patients, however, are understaged, undertreated and underrepresented in clinical trials. The International Society of Geriatric Oncology created a task force with a view to assessing the potential for developing guidelines for the treatment of elderly (geriatric) CRC patients. A review of the evidence presented by the task force members confirmed the paucity of clinical trial data in elderly people and the lack of evidence-based guidelines. However, recommendations have been proposed on the basis of the available data and on the emerging evidence that treatment outcomes for fit, elderly CRC patients can be similar to those of younger patients. It is hoped that these will pave the way for formal treatment guidelines based upon solid scientific evidence in the future.

Inner plasma structure of the low-latitude reconnection layer

We report a clear transition through a reconnection layer at the low-latitude magnetopause which shows a complete traversal across all reconnected field lines during northwestward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. The associated plasma populations confirm details of the electron and ion mixing and the time history and acceleration through the current layer. This case has low magnetic shear with a strong guide field and the reconnection layer contains a single density depletion layer on the magnetosheath side which we suggest results from nearly field-aligned magnetosheath flows. Within the reconnection boundary layer, there are two plasma boundaries, close to the inferred separatrices on the magnetosphere and magnetosheath sides (Ssp and Ssh) and two boundaries associated with the Alfvén waves (or Rotational Discontinuities, RDsp and RDsh). The data are consistent with these being launched from the reconnection site and the plasma distributions are well ordered and suggestive of the time elapsed since reconnection of the field lines observed. In each sub-layer between the boundaries the plasma distribution is different and is centered around the current sheet, responsible for magnetosheath acceleration. We show evidence for a velocity dispersion effect in the electron anisotropy that is consistent with the time elapsed since reconnection. In addition, new evidence is presented for the occurrence of partial reflection of magnetosheath electrons at the magnetopause current layer.