Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Advantage of single-trial models for response to selection in wheat breeding multi-environment trials

An investigation was conducted to evaluate the impact of experimental designs and spatial analyses (single-trial models) of the response to selection for grain yield in the northern grains region of Australia (Queensland and northern New South Wales). Two sets of multi-environment experiments were considered. One set, based on 33 trials conducted from 1994 to 1996, was used to represent the testing system of the wheat breeding program and is referred to as the multi-environment trial (MET). The second set, based on 47 trials conducted from 1986 to 1993, sampled a more diverse set of years and management regimes and was used to represent the target population of environments (TPE). There were 18 genotypes in common between the MET and TPE sets of trials. From indirect selection theory, the phenotypic correlation coefficient between the MET and TPE single-trial adjusted genotype means [r(p(MT))] was used to determine the effect of the single-trial model on the expected indirect response to selection for grain yield in the TPE based on selection in the MET. Five single-trial models were considered: randomised complete block (RCB), incomplete block (IB), spatial analysis (SS), spatial analysis with a measurement error (SSM) and a combination of spatial analysis and experimental design information to identify the preferred (PF) model. Bootstrap-resampling methodology was used to construct multiple MET data sets, ranging in size from 2 to 20 environments per MET sample. The size and environmental composition of the MET and the single-trial model influenced the r(p(MT)). On average, the PF model resulted in a higher r(p(MT)) than the IB, SS and SSM models, which were in turn superior to the RCB model for MET sizes based on fewer than ten environments. For METs based on ten or more environments, the r(p(MT)) was similar for all single-trial models.

Wheat grain cooking process as investigated by modulated temperature differential scanning calorimetry

The thermal properties of soft and hard wheat grains, cooked in a steam pressure cooker, as a function of cooking temperature and time were investigated by modulated temperature differential scanning calorimetry (MTDSC). Four cooking temperatures (110, 120, 130 and 140 degrees C) and six cooking times (20, 40, 60, 80, 100 and 120 min) for each temperature were studied. It was found that typical non-reversible heat flow thermograms of cooked and uncooked wheat grains consisted of two endothermic baseline shifts localised around 40-50 degrees C and then 60-70 degrees C. The second peaks of non-reversible heat flow thermograms (60-70 degrees C) were associated with starch gelatinisation. The degree of gelatinisation was quantified based on these peaks. In this study, starch was completely gelatinised within 60-80 min for cooking temperatures at 110-120 degrees C and within 20 min for cooking temperatures at 130-140 degrees C. MTDSC detected reversible endothermic baseline shifts in most samples, localised broadly around 48-67 degrees C with changes in heat capacity ranging from 0.02 to 0.06 J/g per degrees C. These reversible endothermic baseline shifts are related to the glass transition, which occurs during starch gelatinisation. Data on the specific heat capacity of the cooked wheat samples are provided. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic and economic analysis of a targeted marker-assisted wheat breeding strategy

The advent of molecular markers as a tool to aid selection has provided plant breeders with the opportunity to rapidly deliver superior genetic solutions to problems in agricultural production systems. However, a major constraint to the implementation of marker-assisted selection (MAS) in pragmatic breeding programs in the past has been the perceived high relative cost of MAS compared to conventional phenotypic selection. In this paper, computer simulation was used to design a genetically effective and economically efficient marker-assisted breeding strategy aimed at a specific outcome. Under investigation was a strategy involving the integration of both restricted backcrossing and doubled haploid (DH) technology. The point at which molecular markers are applied in a selection strategy can be critical to the effectiveness and cost efficiency of that strategy. The application of molecular markers was considered at three phases in the strategy: allele enrichment in the BC1F1 population, gene selection at the haploid stage and the selection for recurrent parent background of DHs prior to field testing. Overall, incorporating MAS at all three stages was the most effective, in terms of delivering a high frequency of desired outcomes and at combining the selected favourable rust resistance, end use quality and grain yield alleles. However, when costs were included in the model the combination of MAS at the BC1F1 and haploid stage was identified as the optimal strategy. A detailed economic analysis showed that incorporation of marker selection at these two stages not only increased genetic gain over the phenotypic alternative but actually reduced the over all cost by 40%.

Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Nino events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Nino events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Nino are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (footprints) found in the El Nino impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Nino differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Nino events on agricultural systems.

Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner): can wheat stubble protect cotton plants against attack?

When investigating strategies for Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) control, it is important to understand oviposition behaviour. Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) was sown into standing wheat (Triticum astivum L.) stubble in a closed arena to investigate the effect of stubble on H. armigera moth behaviour and oviposition. Infrared cameras were used to track moths and determine whether stubble acted as a physical barrier or provided camouflage to cotton plants, thereby reducing oviposition. Searching activity was observed to peak shortly before dawn (03:00 and 04:00 h) and remained high until just after dawn (4 h window). Moths spent more time resting on cotton plants than spiralling above them, and the least time flying across the arena. While female moths spent more time searching for cotton plants growing in wheat stubble, the difference in oviposition was not significant. As similar numbers of eggs were laid on cotton plants with stubble (3.5/plant SE +/- 0.87) and without stubble (2.5/plant SE +/- 0.91), wheat stubble does not appear to provide camouflage to cotton plants. There was no significant difference in the location of eggs deposited on cotton plants with and without stubble, although more eggs were laid on the tops of cotton leaves in wheat stubble. As the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs laid on the cotton plant is a crucial component of population stability, eggs laid on the upper side of leaves on cotton plants may be more prone to fatalities caused by environmental factors such as wind and rain. Therefore, although stubble did not influence the number of eggs laid, it did affect their distribution on the plant, which may result in increased mortality of eggs on cotton plants sown into standing wheat stubble.

Comparison of blast furnace raceway size with theory

A previously developed one-dimensional mathematical model, to explain raceway hysteresis, is used to predict the raceway diameter in operating blast furnaces and hot models. Raceway size obtained from the open literature under various conditions for various blast furnaces are compared with computed predictions. In addition the predictions are also compared with published outcomes from other hot models. Simulated results on raceway diameter are in very good agreement with published operating blast furnace and hot model data. The effect of various parameters such as tuyere and hearth diameter, coke size and density, void fraction and bed height on raceway diameter has been studied.

Global adaptation of spring bread and durum wheat lines near-isogenic for major reduced height genes

The effect of major dwarfing genes, Rht-B1 and Rht-D1, in bread (Triticum aestivum L.) and durum (Triticum turgidum L. var. durum) wheats varies with environment. Six reduced-height near-isogenic spring wheat lines, included in the International Adaptation Trial (IAT), were grown in 81 trials around the world. Of the 56 IAT trials yielding > 3 Mg ha(-1), the mean yield of semidwarfs was significantly greater than tails in 54% of trials; in the 27 trials yielding < 3 Mg ha-1, semidwarfs were superior in only 24%. Sixteen pairs of semidwarf-tall near-isolines were grown in six managed drought environment trials (DETs) in northwestern Mexico. In these trials, semidwarfs outyielded talls in all but the most droughted environment (2.5 Mg ha(-1)). The effect of the height alleles varied with genetic background and environment. For both yield and height, variance components for allele and environment by allele interaction were larger than those for genetic background and genetic background by environment. Pattern analysis showed that tall and semidwarf lines had similar adaptation to stressed environments (< 2.8 Mg ha(-1), low rainfall), while semidwarfs yielded more in less stressed environments (> 4.3 Mg ha(-1), high rainfall). The best adapted near-isogenic pair had a Kauz background, where the tall was only 16% taller than the dwarf. In the Kauz-derived pair, the semidwarf outyielded the tall in only 13% of trials with no differences in low yielding trials. This supports the idea that '' short talls '' may be useful in marginal environments (yield < 3 Mg ha(-1)).

Pathogenic variation of Fusarium isolates associated with head blight of wheat in Australia

This paper examines the level of pathogenic diversity in Australian Fusarium pseudograminearum and Fusarium graminearum isolates for head blight from the assessment of 51 wheat germplasm lines, barley, triticale, rye, maize and sorghum plants. A set of nine putative wheat differentials were selected and assessed with 10 F. graminearum and 12 F. pseudograminearum isolates. Isolates of both species were pathogenic on all the wheat germplasm lines, barley triticale and rye. The isolates differed largely in a quantitative way with only small differential effects and were statistically demarcated into three pathogenicity groups: low, intermediate and high. Such distribution patterns suggest that wheat germplasm lines employ different resistance mechanisms to each group of isolates and the three pathogenicity groups may have different mechanisms controlling pathogenicity. The aggressiveness of F. graminearum and F. pseudograminearum isolates on the wheat germplasm lines were marginally correlated (r = 0.40). Durum wheats were ranked as the most susceptible while Sumai 3, Ituo Komugi, Sotome A, Sotome and Nobeokabouzu komugi were consistently grouped as resistant by both species. These findings reiterate the need to consider pathogen variability in the screening, selection and improvement of resistance to head blight in wheat.

Pattern analysis on grain yield performance of Chinese and CIMMYT spring wheat cultivars sown in China and CIMMYT

Understanding the relationships among testing environments is essential for better targeting cultivars to production environments. To identify patterns of cultivar, environment, cultivar-by-environment interactions, and opportunities for indirect selection for grain yield, a set of 25 spring wheat cultivars from China and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) was evaluated in nine environments in China and four management environments at CIMMYT in Cd. Obregon, Mexico, during two wheat seasons. Genetic background and original environment were the main factors influencing grain yield performance of the cultivars. Baviacora M 92, Xinchun 2 and Xinchun 6 showed relatively more stable and higher grain yields, whereas highly photoperiod sensitive cultivars Xinkehan 9, Kefeng 6 and Longmai 19 proved consistently inferior across environments, except in Harbin and Keshan, the two high latitude environments. Longmai 26, also from high latitude environments in the northeastern Heilongjiang province, was however probably not as photoperiodicly sensitive as other cultivars; from that region, and produced much higher grain yield and expressed a broader adaptation. None of the environments reported major diseases. Pattern analyses revealed that photoperiod response and planting option on beds were the two main factors underlying the observed interactions for grain yield. The production environment of planting on the flat in Mexico grouped together with Huhhot and Urumqi in both wheat seasons, indicating an indirect response to selection for grain yield in this CIMMYT managed environment could benefit the two Chinese environments. Both the environment of planting on the flat with Chinese Hejin and Yongning, and the three CIMMYT enviromnents planting on raised beds with Chinese Yongning grouped together only in one season, showing that repeatability may not be stable in this case.

Pattern analysis on protein properties of Chinese and CIMMYT spring wheat cultivars sown in China and CIMMYT

Improvement of processing quality is a very important objective for Chinese wheat breeding programs. Twenty-five CIMMYT and Chinese spring wheat cultivars were grown at four managed conditions by CIMMYT in Cd. Obregon, Sonora, Mexico and in nine environments in China, over two successive wheat seasons from 2000 to 2002. These trials were used to identify patterns of cultivar, environment and cultivar x environment interactions, and to determine opportunities for indirect selection for protein content and the protein-quality related parameter, SDS sedimentation (SDSS) value. The cultivar Inqalab 91 showed low levels of interaction with environments in the 2000-01 crop cycle for protein content, and expressed intermediate levels for both protein content and SDSS value, across most of the environments in both years. Longmai 26 had consistently high protein content and SDSS value across environments in both years, indicating that it is possible to breed cultivars expressing high yields with good protein properties. Cluster analyses revealed that cultivars grouped differently for protein content and SDSS value. Besides photoperiod, water availability appeared to influence the ranking of cultivars for protein content and SDSS value. Temperature and soil type may underlie the observed interactions for protein content, while temperature may also be a factor associated with interactions for SDSS value. The full irrigation managed environment in Mexico, with the cultivars sown on raised beds two months later than optimum and exposing them to late heat, clustered together with the Chinese environments Huhhot, Yongning, and Hejin in the 2000-01 season for SDSS value. This indicates that there is an opportunity to exploit indirect responses to selection in the CIMMYT management environments for SDSS value with relevance for China's spring wheat regions. However, there seemed little chance for positive indirect selection in CIMMYT's managed environments for China in regard to protein content, as environments clustered distinctly. Pattern analyses permitted a sensible and useful summary for this multi environment experiment, helping in understanding natural relationships and variations in cultivar performance among the various environment groups, and assisting in the structuring of environments.

Methyl jasmonate induced gene expression in wheat delays symptom development by the crown rot pathogen Fusarium pseudograminearum

The necrotrophic fungal pathogen Fusarium pseudograminearum (F. pseudograminearum) causes crown rot disease (CR) in wheat. This host-pathogen interaction has not been studied previously at the molecular level. In this study. using real-time quantitative PCR, the expression of 26 selected wheat genes was examined 1, 2 and 4 days after inoculation of wheat seedlings of the CR susceptible cultivar Kennedy and the partially field-resistant cultivar Sunco. Reproducible induction of eight defence genes consisting of PR1.1, PR2 (beta,1-3 glucanase), PR3 (chitinase), PR4 (wheativin), PR5 (thaumatin-like protein). TaPERO (peroxidase), PR10 and TaGLP2a (germin-like) was observed. These genes were induced in both cultivars, however. some genes were induced more rapidly in Sunco than in Kennedy. MJ treatment also induced the above pathogen responsive defence genes in both cultivars while benzo(1,2,3)thiadiazole-7-carbothionic acid S-methyl ester (BTH) treatment weakly induced them in Kennedy only. Similarly. treatment with MJ before inoculation significantly delayed the development of necrotic symptoms for 2 weeks in both wheat cultivars, while BTH pre-treatments delayed symptom development in Kennedy only. The chemically induced protection, therefore, correlated with induction of the F. pseudograminearum-responsive genes. These results support the emerging role of jasmonate signalling in defence against necrotrophic fungal pathogens in monocots and future manipulation of this pathway may improve CR resistance in wheat. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.