Retro-wedge foreland basin evolution along the ECORS line, eastern Pyrenees, France

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Essays on Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Investment Dynamics

Understanding how imperfect information affects firms' investment decision helps answer important questions in economics, such as how we may better measure economic uncertainty; how firms' forecasts would affect their decision-making when their beliefs are not backed by economic fundamentals; and how important are the business cycle impacts of changes in firms' productivity uncertainty in an environment of incomplete information. This dissertation provides a synthetic answer to all these questions, both empirically and theoretically. The first chapter, provides empirical evidence to demonstrate that survey-based forecast dispersion identifies a distinctive type of second moment shocks different from the canonical volatility shocks to productivity, i.e. uncertainty shocks. Such forecast disagreement disturbances can affect the distribution of firm-level beliefs regardless of whether or not belief changes are backed by changes in economic fundamentals. At the aggregate level, innovations that increase the dispersion of firms' forecasts lead to persistent declines in aggregate investment and output, which are followed by a slow recovery. On the contrary, the larger dispersion of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the standard way to measure economic uncertainty, delivers the ``wait and see" effect, such that aggregate investment experiences a sharp decline, followed by a quick rebound, and then overshoots. At the firm level, data uncovers that more productive firms increase investments given rises in productivity dispersion for the future, whereas investments drop when firms disagree more about the well-being of their future business conditions. These findings challenge the view that the dispersion of the firms' heterogeneous beliefs captures the concept of economic uncertainty, defined by a model of uncertainty shocks. The second chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms subject to the real productivity uncertainty shocks and informational disagreement shocks. As firms cannot perfectly disentangle aggregate from idiosyncratic productivity because of imperfect information, information quality thus drives the wedge of difference between the unobserved productivity fundamentals, and the firms' beliefs about how productive they are. Distribution of the firms' beliefs is no longer perfectly aligned with the distribution of firm-level productivity across firms. This model not only explains why, at the macro and micro level, disagreement shocks are different from uncertainty shocks, as documented in Chapter 1, but helps reconcile a key challenge faced by the standard framework to study economic uncertainty: a trade-off between sizable business cycle effects due to changes in uncertainty, and the right amount of pro-cyclicality of firm-level investment rate dispersion, as measured by its correlation with the output cycles.

Agriculture, Environmental Incentive Payments, and Water Quality in the Chesapeake Bay

Nonpoint sources (NPS) pollution from agriculture is the leading source of water quality impairment in U.S. rivers and streams, and a major contributor to lakes, wetlands, estuaries and coastal waters (U.S. EPA 2016). Using data from a survey of farmers in Maryland, this dissertation examines the effects of a cost sharing policy designed to encourage adoption of conservation practices that reduce NPS pollution in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. This watershed is the site of the largest Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) implemented to date, making it an important setting in the U.S. for water quality policy. I study two main questions related to the reduction of NPS pollution from agriculture. First, I examine the issue of additionality of cost sharing payments by estimating the direct effect of cover crop cost sharing on the acres of cover crops, and the indirect effect of cover crop cost sharing on the acres of two other practices: conservation tillage and contour/strip cropping. A two-stage simultaneous equation approach is used to correct for voluntary self-selection into cost sharing programs and account for substitution effects among conservation practices. Quasi-random Halton sequences are employed to solve the system of equations for conservation practice acreage and to minimize the computational burden involved. By considering patterns of agronomic complementarity or substitution among conservation practices (Blum et al., 1997; USDA SARE, 2012), this analysis estimates water quality impacts of the crowding-in or crowding-out of private investment in conservation due to public incentive payments. Second, I connect the econometric behavioral results with model parameters from the EPA’s Chesapeake Bay Program to conduct a policy simulation on water quality effects. I expand the econometric model to also consider the potential loss of vegetative cover due to cropland incentive payments, or slippage (Lichtenberg and Smith-Ramirez, 2011). Econometric results are linked with the Chesapeake Bay Program watershed model to estimate the change in abatement levels and costs for nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment under various behavioral scenarios. Finally, I use inverse sampling weights to derive statewide abatement quantities and costs for each of these pollutants, comparing these with TMDL targets for agriculture in Maryland.

DEVELOPMENT OF LI+ AND NA+ CONDUCTING CERAMICS AND CERAMIC STRUCTURES FOR USE IN SOLID STATE BATTERIES

A solid state lithium metal battery based on a lithium garnet material was developed, constructed and tested. Specifically, a porous-dense-porous trilayer structure was fabricated by tape casting, a roll-to-roll technique conducive to high volume manufacturing. The high density and thin center layer (< 20 μm) effectively blocks dendrites even over hundreds of cycles. The microstructured porous layers, serving as electrode supports, are demonstrated to increase the interfacial surface area available to the electrodes and increase cathode loading. Reproducibility of flat, well sintered ceramics was achieved with consistent powderbed lattice parameter and ball milling of powderbed. Together, the resistance of the LLCZN trilayer was measured at an average of 7.6 ohm-cm2 in a symmetric lithium cell, significantly lower than any other reported literature results. Building on these results, a full cell with a lithium metal anode, LLCZN trilayer electrolyte, and LiCoO2 cathode was cycled 100 cycles without decay and an average ASR of 117 ohm-cm2. After cycling, the cell was held at open circuit for 24 hours without any voltage fade, demonstrating the absence of a dendrite or short-circuit of any type. Cost calculations guided the optimization of a trilayer structure predicted that resulting cells will be highly competitive in the marketplace as intrinsically safe lithium batteries with energy densities greater than 300 Wh/kg and 1000 Wh/L for under $100/kWh. Also in the pursuit of solid state batteries, an improved Na+ superionic conductor (NASICON) composition, Na3Zr2Si2PO12, was developed with a conductivity of 1.9x10-3 S/cm. New super-lithiated lithium garnet compositions, Li7.06La3Zr1.94Y0.06O12 and Li7.16La3Zr1.84Y0.16O12, were developed and studied revealing insights about the mechanisms of conductivity in lithium garnets.

SOVLENT REACTIVITY AND INTERFACE EVOLUTION AT MODEL ELECTRODES FOR ENERGY APPLICATIONS

The Li-ion rechargeable battery (LIB) is widely used as an energy storage device, but has significant limitations in battery cycle life and safety. During initial charging, decomposition of the ethylene carbonate (EC)-based electrolytes of the LIB leads to the formation of a passivating layer on the anode known as the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI). The formation of an SEI has great impact on the cycle life and safety of LIB, yet mechanistic aspects of SEI formation are not fully understood. In this dissertation, two surface science model systems have been created under ultra-high vacuum (UHV) to probe the very initial stage of SEI formation at the model carbon anode surfaces of LIB. The first model system, Model System I, is an lithium-carbonate electrolyte/graphite C(0001) system. I have developed a temperature programmed desorption/temperature programmed reaction spectroscopy (TPD/TPRS) instrument as part of my dissertation to study Model System I in quantitative detail. The binding strengths and film growth mechanisms of key electrolyte molecules on model carbon anode surfaces with varying extents of lithiation were measured by TPD. TPRS was further used to track the gases evolved from different reduction products in the early-stage SEI formation. The branching ratio of multiple reaction pathways was quantified for the first time and determined to be 70.% organolithium products vs. 30% inorganic lithium product. The obtained branching ratio provides important information on the distribution of lithium salts that form at the very onset of SEI formation. One of the key reduction products formed from EC in early-stage SEI formation is lithium ethylene dicarbonate (LEDC). Despite intensive studies, the LEDC structure in either the bulk or thin-film (SEI) form is unknown. To enable structural study, pure LEDC was synthesized and subject to synchrotron X-ray diffraction measurements (bulk material) and STM measurements (deposited films). To enable studies of LEDC thin films, Model System II, a lithium ethylene dicarbonate (LEDC)-dimethylformamide (DMF)/Ag(111) system was created by a solution microaerosol deposition technique. Produced films were then imaged by ultra-high vacuum scanning tunneling microscopy (UHV-STM). As a control, the dimethylformamide (DMF)-Ag(111) system was first prepared and its complex 2D phase behavior was mapped out as a function of coverage. The evolution of three distinct monolayer phases of DMF was observed with increasing surface pressure — a 2D gas phase, an ordered DMF phase, and an ordered Ag(DMF)2 complex phase. The addition of LEDC to this mixture, seeded the nucleation of the ordered DMF islands at lower surface pressures (DMF coverages), and was interpreted through nucleation theory. A structural model of the nucleation seed was proposed, and the implication of ionic SEI products, such as LEDC, in early-stage SEI formation was discussed.

MANIPULATION OF IONS, ELECTRONS, AND PHOTONS IN 2D MATERIALS BY ION INTERCALATION

2D materials have attracted tremendous attention due to their unique physical and chemical properties since the discovery of graphene. Despite these intrinsic properties, various modification methods have been applied to 2D materials that yield even more exciting results. Among all modification methods, the intercalation of 2D materials provides the highest possible doping and/or phase change to the pristine 2D materials. This doping effect highly modifies 2D materials, with extraordinary electrical transport as well as optical, thermal, magnetic, and catalytic properties, which are advantageous for optoelectronics, superconductors, thermoelectronics, catalysis and energy storage applications. To study the property changes of 2D materials, we designed and built a planar nanobattery that allows electrochemical ion intercalation in 2D materials. More importantly, this planar nanobattery enables characterization of electrical, optical and structural properties of 2D materials in situ and real time upon ion intercalation. With this device, we successfully intercalated Li-ions into few layer graphene (FLG) and ultrathin graphite, heavily dopes the graphene to 0.6 x 10^15 /cm2, which simultaneously increased its conductivity and transmittance in the visible range. The intercalated LiC6 single crystallite achieved extraordinary optoelectronic properties, in which an eight-layered Li intercalated FLG achieved transmittance of 91.7% (at 550 nm) and sheet resistance of 3 ohm/sq. We extend the research to obtain scalable, printable graphene based transparent conductors with ion intercalation. Surfactant free, printed reduced graphene oxide transparent conductor thin film with Na-ion intercalation is obtained with transmittance of 79% and sheet resistance of 300 ohm/sq (at 550 nm). The figure of merit is calculated as the best pure rGO based transparent conductors. We further improved the tunability of the reduced graphene oxide film by using two layers of CNT films to sandwich it. The tunable range of rGO film is demonstrated from 0.9 um to 10 um in wavelength. Other ions such as K-ion is also studied of its intercalation chemistry and optical properties in graphitic materials. We also used the in situ characterization tools to understand the fundamental properties and improve the performance of battery electrode materials. We investigated the Na-ion interaction with rGO by in situ Transmission electron microscopy (TEM). For the first time, we observed reversible Na metal cluster (with diameter larger than 10 nm) deposition on rGO surface, which we evidenced with atom-resolved HRTEM image of Na metal and electron diffraction pattern. This discovery leads to a porous reduced graphene oxide sodium ion battery anode with record high reversible specific capacity around 450 mAh/g at 25mA/g, a high rate performance of 200 mAh/g at 250 mA/g, and stable cycling performance up to 750 cycles. In addition, direct observation of irreversible formation of Na2O on rGO unveils the origin of commonly observed low 1st Columbic Efficiency of rGO containing electrodes. Another example for in situ characterization for battery electrode is using the planar nanobattery for 2D MoS2 crystallite. Planar nanobattery allows the intrinsic electrical conductivity measurement with single crystalline 2D battery electrode upon ion intercalation and deintercalation process, which is lacking in conventional battery characterization techniques. We discovered that with a “rapid-charging” process at the first cycle, the lithiated MoS2 undergoes a drastic resistance decrease, which in a regular lithiation process, the resistance always increases after lithiation at its final stage. This discovery leads to a 2- fold increase in specific capacity with with rapid first lithiated MoS2 composite electrode material, compare with the regular first lithiated MoS2 composite electrode material, at current density of 250 mA/g.