On the foundations of well-being economics and policy

When one wishes to implement public policies, there is a previous need of comparing different actions and valuating and evaluating them to assess their social attractiveness. Recently the concept of well-being has been proposed as a multidimensional proxy for measuring societal prosperity and progress; a key research topic is then on how we can measure and evaluate this plurality of dimensions for policy decisions. This paper defends the thesis articulated in the following points: 1. Different metrics are linked to different objectives and values. To use only one measurement unit (on the grounds of the so-called commensurability principle) for incorporating a plurality of dimensions, objectives and values, implies reductionism necessarily. 2. Point 1) can be proven as a matter of formal logic by drawing on the work of Geach about moral philosophy. This theoretical demonstration is an original contribution of this article. Here the distinction between predicative and attributive adjectives is formalised and definitions are provided. Predicative adjectives are further distinguished into absolute and relative ones. The new concepts of set commensurability and rod commensurability are introduced too. 3. The existence of a plurality of social actors, with interest in the policy being assessed, causes that social decisions involve multiple types of values, of which economic efficiency is only one. Therefore it is misleading to make social decisions based only on that one value. 4. Weak comparability of values, which is grounded on incommensurability, is proved to be the main methodological foundation of policy evaluation in the framework of well-being economics. Incommensurability does not imply incomparability; on the contrary incommensurability is the only rational way to compare societal options under a plurality of policy objectives. 5. Weak comparability can be implemented by using multi-criteria evaluation, which is a formal framework for applied consequentialism under incommensurability. Social Multi-Criteria Evaluation, in particular, allows considering both technical and social incommensurabilities simultaneously.

An assessment of gene prediction accuracy in large DNA sequences

One of the first useful products from the human genome will be a set of predicted genes. Besides its intrinsic scientific interest, the accuracy and completeness of this data set is of considerable importance for human health and medicine. Though progress has been made on computational gene identification in terms of both methods and accuracy evaluation measures, most of the sequence sets in which the programs are tested are short genomic sequences, and there is concern that these accuracy measures may not extrapolate well to larger, more challenging data sets. Given the absence of experimentally verified large genomic data sets, we constructed a semiartificial test set comprising a number of short single-gene genomic sequences with randomly generated intergenic regions. This test set, which should still present an easier problem than real human genomic sequence, mimics the approximately 200kb long BACs being sequenced. In our experiments with these longer genomic sequences, the accuracy of GENSCAN, one of the most accurate ab initio gene prediction programs, dropped significantly, although its sensitivity remained high. Conversely, the accuracy of similarity-based programs, such as GENEWISE, PROCRUSTES, and BLASTX was not affected significantly by the presence of random intergenic sequence, but depended on the strength of the similarity to the protein homolog. As expected, the accuracy dropped if the models were built using more distant homologs, and we were able to quantitatively estimate this decline. However, the specificities of these techniques are still rather good even when the similarity is weak, which is a desirable characteristic for driving expensive follow-up experiments. Our experiments suggest that though gene prediction will improve with every new protein that is discovered and through improvements in the current set of tools, we still have a long way to go before we can decipher the precise exonic structure of every gene in the human genome using purely computational methodology.

Evolutionary history and its relevance in understanding and conserving southern African biodiversity

Abstract : Understanding how biodiversity is distributed is central to any conservation effort and has traditionally been based on niche modeling and the causal relationship between spatial distribution of organisms and their environment. More recently, the study of species' evolutionary history and relatedness has permeated the fields of ecology and conservation and, coupled with spatial predictions, provides useful insights to the origin of current biodiversity patterns, community structuring and potential vulnerability to extinction. This thesis explores several key ecological questions by combining the fields of niche modeling and phylogenetics and using important components of southern African biodiversity. The aims of this thesis are to provide comparisons of biodiversity measures, to assess how climate change will affect evolutionary history loss, to ask whether there is a clear link between evolutionary history and morphology and to investigate the potential role of relatedness in macro-climatic niche structuring. The first part of my thesis provides a fine scale comparison and spatial overlap quantification of species richness and phylogenetic diversity predictions for one of the most diverse plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR), the Proteaceae. In several of the measures used, patterns do not match sufficiently to argue that species relatedness information is implicit in species richness patterns. The second part of my thesis predicts how climate change may affect threat and potential extinction of southern African animal and plant taxa. I compare present and future niche models to assess whether predicted species extinction will result in higher or lower V phylogenetic diversity survival than what would be experienced under random extinction processes. l find that predicted extinction will result in lower phylogenetic diversity survival but that this non-random pattern will be detected only after a substantial proportion of the taxa in each group has been lost. The third part of my thesis explores the relationship between phylogenetic and morphological distance in southern African bats to assess whether long evolutionary histories correspond to equally high levels of morphological variation, as predicted by a neutral model of character evolution. I find no such evidence; on the contrary weak negative trends are detected for this group, as well as in simulations of both neutral and convergent character evolution. Finally, I ask whether spatial and climatic niche occupancy in southern African bats is influenced by evolutionary history or not. I relate divergence time between species pairs to climatic niche and range overlap and find no evidence for clear phylogenetic structuring. I argue that this may be due to particularly high levels of micro-niche partitioning. Résumé : Comprendre la distribution de la biodiversité représente un enjeu majeur pour la conservation de la nature. Les analyses se basent le plus souvent sur la modélisation de la niche écologique à travers l'étude des relations causales entre la distribution spatiale des organismes et leur environnement. Depuis peu, l'étude de l'histoire évolutive des organismes est également utilisée dans les domaines de l'écologie et de la conservation. En combinaison avec la modélisation de la distribution spatiale des organismes, cette nouvelle approche fournit des informations pertinentes pour mieux comprendre l'origine des patterns de biodiversité actuels, de la structuration des communautés et des risques potentiels d'extinction. Cette thèse explore plusieurs grandes questions écologiques, en combinant les domaines de la modélisation de la niche et de la phylogénétique. Elle s'applique aux composants importants de la biodiversité de l'Afrique australe. Les objectifs de cette thèse ont été l) de comparer différentes mesures de la biodiversité, 2) d'évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques à venir sur la perte de diversité phylogénétique, 3) d'analyser le lien potentiel entre diversité phylogénétique et diversité morphologique et 4) d'étudier le rôle potentiel de la phylogénie sur la structuration des niches macro-climatiques des espèces. La première partie de cette thèse fournit une comparaison spatiale, et une quantification du chevauchement, entre des prévisions de richesse spécifique et des prédictions de la diversité phylogénétique pour l'une des familles de plantes les plus riches en espèces de la région floristique du Cap (CFR), les Proteaceae. Il résulte des analyses que plusieurs mesures de diversité phylogénétique montraient des distributions spatiales différentes de la richesse spécifique, habituellement utilisée pour édicter des mesures de conservation. La deuxième partie évalue les effets potentiels des changements climatiques attendus sur les taux d'extinction d'animaux et de plantes de l'Afrique australe. Pour cela, des modèles de distribution d'espèces actuels et futurs ont permis de déterminer si l'extinction des espèces se traduira par une plus grande ou une plus petite perte de diversité phylogénétique en comparaison à un processus d'extinction aléatoire. Les résultats ont effectivement montré que l'extinction des espèces liées aux changements climatiques pourrait entraîner une perte plus grande de diversité phylogénétique. Cependant, cette perte ne serait plus grande que celle liée à un processus d'extinction aléatoire qu'à partir d'une forte perte de taxons dans chaque groupe. La troisième partie de cette thèse explore la relation entre distances phylogénétiques et morphologiques d'espèces de chauves-souris de l'Afrique australe. ll s'agit plus précisément de déterminer si une longue histoire évolutive correspond également à des variations morphologiques plus grandes dans ce groupe. Cette relation est en fait prédite par un modèle neutre d'évolution de caractères. Aucune évidence de cette relation n'a émergé des analyses. Au contraire, des tendances négatives ont été détectées, ce qui représenterait la conséquence d'une évolution convergente entre clades et des niveaux élevés de cloisonnement pour chaque clade. Enfin, la dernière partie présente une étude sur la répartition de la niche climatique des chauves-souris de l'Afrique australe. Dans cette étude je rapporte temps de divergence évolutive (ou deux espèces ont divergé depuis un ancêtre commun) au niveau de chevauchement de leurs niches climatiques. Les résultats n'ont pas pu mettre en évidence de lien entre ces deux paramètres. Les résultats soutiennent plutôt l'idée que cela pourrait être I dû à des niveaux particulièrement élevés de répartition de la niche à échelle fine.

Patterns of evolutionary constraints on genes in humans

Background: Different regions in a genome evolve at different rates depending on structural and functional constraints. Some genomic regions are highly conserved during metazoan evolution, while other regions may evolve rapidly, either in all species or in a lineage-specific manner. A strong or even moderate change in constraints in functional regions, for example in coding regions, can have significant evolutionary consequences. Results: Here we discuss a novel framework, 'BaseDiver', to classify groups of genes in humans based on the patterns of evolutionary constraints on polymorphic positions in their coding regions. Comparing the nucleotide-level divergence among mammals with the extent of deviation from the ancestral base in the human lineage, we identify patterns of evolutionary pressure on nonsynonymous base-positions in groups of genes belonging to the same functional category. Focussing on groups of genes in functional categories, we find that transcription factors contain a significant excess of nonsynonymous base-positions that are conserved in other mammals but changed in human, while immunity related genes harbour mutations at base-positions that evolve rapidly in all mammals including humans due to strong preference for advantageous alleles. Genes involved in olfaction also evolve rapidly in all mammals, and in humans this appears to be due to weak negative selection. Conclusion: While recent studies have identified genes under positive selection in humans, our approach identifies evolutionary constraints on Gene Ontology groups identifying changes in humans relative to some of the other mammals.

Taking care of the most vulnerable : a descriptive study of patients with 12 attendances or more at a Swiss university hospital emergency department in 2009

Introduction: Patients who repeatedly attend the Emergency Department (ED) often have a distinct and complex vulnerability profile that includes poor somatic, psychological, and social indicators. This profile has an impact on the patients' well-being as well as on hospital costs. The objective of the study was to specify the characteristics of hyper users (HU) and explore the connection with ED care and hospital costs. Methods: The study sample comprised all adult patients with 12 or more attendances at the ED of the Lausanne University Hospital in 2009. The data were collected by retrospectively searching internal databases to identify the patients concerned and then analysing the profiles of these patients. Information gathered included demographic, somatic, psychological, at-risk behaviour, and social indicators, and health system consumption including costs. Results: In 2009, 23 patients (0.1%) attended 12 times or more (425 attendances, 0.8%). The average age was about 43 years, 60.9% were female, and 47.8% single. Of these 95.7% had basic insurance, 87.0% had a general practitioner, and 30.4% were under legal guardianship. The majority attended in the evening or at night (67.1%), and almost one quarter of these attendances resulted in inpatient treatment (24.0%). Most HU had attended the ED in previous years too (95.7% in 2008). The most prevalent diagnoses concerned 'mental disorders' (87.0%). About 30.4% of patients had attempted suicide (all were female patients). Other frequent diagnoses concerned 'trauma' (65.2%), and the 'digestive' and the 'nervous system' (each 56.5%). At-risk behaviour such as severe alcohol consumption (34.8%), or excessive use of medicines (26.1%) was very frequent, and some patients used illicit drugs (21.7%). There was only a weak association between the number of ED attendances and the resulting costs. However, a reduction of one outpatient visit per patient would have decreased ED outpatient costs by 8.5%. Conclusions: HU often have a particularly vulnerable profile. Mental problems are prevalent among them, as are at-risk behaviour and severe somatic conditions. The complexity of the patients' profiles demands specific care that cannot be guaranteed within an everyday ED routine. The use of an interdisciplinary case management team might be a promising approach in diminishing the number of attendances and the associated costs, although the profiles of HU are such that they probably cannot completely give up ED attendance.

Correlation of diffusion tensor tractography and intraoperative macrostimulation during deep brain stimulation for Parkinson disease.

Object The purpose of this study was to investigate whether diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) of the corticospinal tract (CST) is a reliable surrogate for intraoperative macrostimulation through the deep brain stimulation (DBS) leads. The authors hypothesized that the distance on MRI from the DBS lead to the CST as determined by DTI would correlate with intraoperative motor thresholds from macrostimulations through the same DBS lead. Methods The authors retrospectively reviewed pre- and postoperative MRI studies and intraoperative macrostimulation recordings in 17 patients with Parkinson disease (PD) treated by DBS stimulation. Preoperative DTI tractography of the CST was coregistered with postoperative MRI studies showing the position of the DBS leads. The shortest distance and the angle from each contact of each DBS lead to the CST was automatically calculated using software-based analysis. The distance measurements calculated for each contact were evaluated with respect to the intraoperative voltage thresholds that elicited a motor response at each contact. Results There was a nonsignificant trend for voltage thresholds to increase when the distances between the DBS leads and the CST increased. There was a significant correlation between the angle and the voltage, but the correlation was weak (coefficient of correlation [R] = 0.36). Conclusions Caution needs to be exercised when using DTI tractography information to guide DBS lead placement in patients with PD. Further studies are needed to compare DTI tractography measurements with other approaches such as microelectrode recordings and conventional intraoperative MRI-guided placement of DBS leads.

cFLIP protein prevents tumor necrosis factor-alpha-mediated induction of caspase-8-dependent apoptosis in insulin-secreting betaTc-Tet cells.

Type 1 diabetes is characterized by the infiltration of activated leukocytes within the pancreatic islets, leading to beta-cell dysfunction and destruction. The exact role played by interferon-gamma, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, and interleukin-1beta in this pathogenic process is still only partially understood. To study cytokine action at the cellular level, we are working with the highly differentiated insulin-secreting cell line, betaTc-Tet. We previously reported that it was susceptible to apoptosis induced by TNF-alpha, in combination with interleukin-1beta and interferon-gamma. Here, we report that cytokine-induced apoptosis was correlated with the activation of caspase-8. We show that in betaTc-Tet cells, overexpression of cFLIP, the cellular FLICE (FADD-like IL-1beta-converting enzyme)-inhibitory protein, completely abolished cytokine-dependent activation of caspase-8 and protected the cells against apoptosis. Furthermore, cFLIP overexpression increased the basal and interleukin-1beta-mediated transcriptional activity of nuclear factor (NF)-kappaB, whereas it did not change cytokine-induced inducible nitric oxide synthase gene transcription and nitric oxide secretion. The presence of cFLIP prevented the weak TNF-alpha-induced reduction in cellular insulin content and secretion; however, it did not prevent the decrease in glucose-stimulated insulin secretion induced by the combined cytokines, in agreement with our previous data demonstrating that interferon-gamma alone could induce these beta-cell dysfunctions. Together, our data demonstrate that overexpression of cFLIP protects mouse beta-cells against TNF-alpha-induced caspase-8 activation and apoptosis and is correlated with enhanced NF-kappaB transcriptional activity, suggesting that cFLIP may have an impact on the outcome of death receptor-triggered responses by directing the intracellular signals from beta-cell death to beta-cell survival.

Predictors of political orientation among US-born Mexican Americans: cultural identification, acculturation attitudes and socioeconomic status

With each passing election, U.S. political campaigns have renewed their efforts in courting the “Latino vote,” yet the Latino population is not a culturally homogenous voting bloc. This study examined how cultural identifications and acculturation attitudes in U.S. born Mexican Americans interacted with socioeconomic status (SES) to predict political orientation. Individuals who held stronger Mexican identity and supported biculturalism as an acculturation strategy had a more liberal orientation, while belonging to a higher SES group and holding stronger assimilation attitudes predicted a less liberal orientation. Mexican cultural identification interacted with SES such that those who held a weaker Mexican identity, but came from a higher social class were less liberal and more moderate in their political orientation. Weak Mexican identification and higher SES also predicted weaker endorsement of bicultural acculturation attitudes, which in turn, mediated the differences in political orientation. The acceptance of one’s ethnic identity and endorsement of bicultural attitudes predicted a more liberal political orientation. In light of these findings, political candidates should be cautious in how they pander to Latino constituents—referencing the groups’ ethnic culture or customs may distance constituents who are not strongly identified with their ethnic culture.

Determination of Vasopressin and Desmopressin in urine by means of liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry for doping control purposes.

The anti-diuretic neurohypophysial hormone Vasopressin (Vp) and its synthetic analogue Desmopressin (Dp, 1-desamino-vasopressin) have received considerable attention from doping control authorities due to their impact on physiological blood parameters. Accordingly, the illicit use of Desmopressin in elite sport is sanctioned by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) and the drug is classified as masking agent. Vp and Dp are small (8-9 amino acids) peptides administered orally as well as intranasally. Within the present study a method to determine Dp and Vp in urinary doping control samples by means of liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole high resolution time-of-flight mass spectrometry was developed. After addition of Lys-Vasopressin as internal standard and efficient sample clean up with a mixed mode solid phase extraction (weak cation exchange), the samples were directly injected into the LC-MS system. The method was validated considering the parameters specificity, linearity, recovery (80-100%), accuracy, robustness, limit of detection/quantification (20/50 pg mL(-1)), precision (inter/intra-day<10%), ion suppression and stability. The analysis of administration study urine samples collected after a single intranasal or oral application of Dp yielded in detection windows for the unchanged target analyte for up to 20 h at concentrations between 50 and 600 pg mL(-1). Endogenous Vp was detected in concentrations of approximately 20-200 pg mL(-1) in spontaneous urine samples obtained from healthy volunteers. The general requirements of the developed method provide the characteristics for an easy transfer to other anti-doping laboratories and support closing another potential gap for cheating athletes.

Kaupungin ja maaseudun vuorovaikutus alueellisessa kehittämispolitiikassa

In Finland, European Union membership and economic globalisation have changed the position of regions from closed territorial systems to nodes of open international networks. The increasing complexity of cities as globalised knowledge centres and functionally specialised and diversified rural areas, and on the other hand growing disparities between prosperous urban cores and lagging peripheral areas are also essential features in contemporary regional development. These trends have produced new needs to promote mutual dialogue between cities and the countryside in western market economies. Urban-rural interaction is an idea which was developed in the late 1990s within regional policy to pull together these new challenges to regional development and handle cities and the countryside as a whole. The aim of my study is to conceptualise the idea of urban-rural interaction, explain the phenomenon theoretically, clarify past and present urban and rural development and analyse regional policies from the interaction angle. The ultimate purpose is to illustrate the existence and nature of particular interaction policy in a globalising society. The general method is discourse analysis, which I use in three cases: Central Finland, South-Ostrobothnia and South-West Finland. Theoretically I have a two-dimensional approach. On the first hand I use World-System theory to explain how the global economy is moulding urban and rural structures at the regional level. On the other hand I use regime theory to explain local political actions and practises between cities and the countryside under the overlapping pressures deriving from reformulated regional structures and policies.

Adaptation to globalisation in Finland has been carried out by strengthening urban centres. The stress in regional policy has been in urban development. The development of the countryside has mostly been implemented by a separate rural policy. At the end of the 1990s and early 2000s Finnish cities have actually shown themselves to be competitive in global markets. The drawbacks of the new growth centre policy have been the sparse network of prosperous cities and their weak spreading effects, which have hindered comprehensive regional development. Tensions between urban and rural areas have also deepened. In this situation the interaction policy is used as a way of balancing development and moderate conflicts within the regions. From this point of view urban-rural interaction can be seen as a way of tackling the challenges of globalisation.

On the other hand the results emphasise that actors involved in regional development still believe, although the hegemonic discourse is on urban policy, that there are opportunities to stimulate progress in the countryside as well. In the situation where regional authorities control development resources, rural development can be successful only if rural actors manage to establish fruitful relationships with their urban partners. This is also the weakness of the programme-based regional policy. If rural municipalities or other actors are for any reason incapable of building development regimes with cities, the offers of interaction policy will be useless.

The problem of the interaction policy is that the focus and methods of it have so far been rather underdeveloped. In order to improve the efficiency of the interaction policy, further research should concentrate on the social processes which define the position of cities and the countryside as partners of interaction, and practises which promote or prohibit the possibilities of developing the interaction policy. The efforts to define different contents of urban-rural interaction or promote interaction projects should not have such an important role in the future as they have had so far. Instead, the focus of interaction policy should be on questions such as how to manage the political tensions between town and country and how to create a positive atmosphere for regional policy where the needs of urban and rural development are promoted equally.

Low estimates of dietary acid load are positively associated with bone ultrasound in women older than 75 years of age with a lifetime fracture

Dietary acid load from Western diets may be a risk factor for osteoporosis. It can be estimated by net endogenous acid production (NEAP). No data currently exists for NEAP estimates and bone indices in the very elderly (i.e. > or = 75 y). The aim of this study was to determine the association between NEAP estimates by using the potential renal acid load (PRAL) equation and quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS) measurements at the heel [broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA)] in Caucasian women. We assessed NEAP and QUS in 401 very elderly Swiss ambulatory women. We evaluated dietary intake and NEAP estimates with a validated FFQ. QUS was measured using Achilles (Lunar). We identified 2 subgroups: 256 women (80.6 y +/- 3; BUA, 96.8 dB/MHz) with a fracture history and the remaining 145 (79.9 y SD 2.9; BUA, 101.7 dB/MHz) without. Women who reported having suffered a fracture had lower BUA (P < 0.001) than nonfractured women but did not differ in nutrient intakes and NEAP. Lower NEAP (P = 0.023) and higher potassium intake (P = 0.033) were correlated with higher BUA, which remained significant even after adjustment for age, BMI, and osteoporosis treatment. BUA was positively correlated with calcium (P = 0.016) and BMI (P < 0.001). Women who reported no fractures had no significant correlations between nutrient intake, NEAP, and BUA. Low nutritional acid load was correlated with higher BUA in very elderly women with a fracture history. Although relatively weak compared with age and BMI, this association was significant and may be an important additional risk factor that might be particularly relevant in frail patients with an already high fracture risk.

The Law of Impersonal Transactions: Meaning and Difficulties

Most economic interactions happen in a context of sequential exchange in which innocent third parties suffer information asymmetry with respect to previous "originative" contracts. The law reduces transaction costs by protecting these third parties but preserves some element of consent by property right holders to avoid damaging property enforcement-e.g., it is they as principals who authorize agents in originative contracts. Judicial verifiability of these originative contracts is obtained either as an automatic byproduct of transactions or, when these would have remained private, by requiring them to be made public. Protecting third parties produces a sort of legal commodity which is easy to trade impersonally, improving the allocation and specialization of resources. Historical delay in generalizing this legal commoditization paradigm is attributed to path dependency-the law first developed for personal trade-and an unbalance in vested interests, as luddite legal professionals face weak public bureaucracies.

Globalization, Divergence and Stagnation

In a world where poor countries provide weak protection for intellectual property rights, market integration shifts technical change in favor of rich nations. Through this channel, free trade may amplify international income differences. At the same time, integration with countries where intellectual property rights are weakly protected can slow down the world growth rate. A crucial implication of these results is that protection of intellectual property is most beneficial in open countries. This prediction, which is novel in the literature, finds support in the data on a panel of 53 countries observed in the years 1965-1990.

Co-evolution between sociality and dispersal: The role of synergistic cooperative benefits.

Explaining the evolution of sociality is challenging because social individuals face disadvantages that must be balanced by intrinsic benefits of living in a group. One potential route towards the evolution of sociality may emerge from the avoidance of dispersal, which can be risky in some environments. Although early studies found that local competition may cancel the benefits of cooperation in viscous populations, subsequent studies have identified conditions, such as the presence of kin recognition or specific demographic conditions, under which altruism will still spread. Most of these studies assume that the costs of cooperating outweigh the direct benefits (strong altruism). In nature, however, many organisms gain synergistic benefits from group living, which may counterbalance even costly altruistic behaviours. Here, we use an individual based model to investigate how dispersal and social behaviour co-evolve when social behaviours result in synergistic benefits that counterbalance the relative cost of altruism to a greater extent than assumed in previous models. When the cost of cooperation is high, selection for sociality responds strongly to the cost of dispersal. In particular, cooperation can begin to spread in a population when higher cooperation levels become correlated with lower dispersal tendencies within individuals. In contrast, less costly social behaviours are less sensitive to the cost of dispersal. In line with previous studies, we find that mechanisms of global population control also affect this relationship: when whole patches (groups) go extinct each generation, selection favours a relatively high dispersal propensity, and social behaviours evolve only when they are not very costly. If random individuals within groups experience mortality each generation to maintain a global carrying capacity, on the other hand, social behaviours spread and dispersal is reduced, even when the latter is not costly.

Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars

This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.