Effect of drainage and wildfire on peat hydrophysical properties

Consecutive multiple disturbances to northern peatlands can dramatically impact peat hydrophysical properties. We examine the impact of a double disturbance (drainage and wildfire) on the hydrophysical and moisture retention properties of peat, a key regulator of peatland ecohydrological resilience, and compare this with the impact to each individual disturbance (drainage and wildfire). The compound effect of drainage and wildfire resulted in a shift of the surface datum down the peat profile, revealing denser peat. Less-dense near-surface peats that regulate water-table position and near-surface moisture content, both favourable to Sphagnum recolonization, were lost. At a drained peatland that was then subject to wildfire, peat bulk density increased by 14.1%, von Post humification class increased by two categories and water retention increased by 15.6%, compared with an adjacent burned but undrained (single disturbance) portion of the fen. We discuss the key hydrophysical metrics of peatland vulnerability and outline how they are affected by the isolated impacts of drainage and wildfire, as well as their combined effects. We demonstrate that multiple peatland disturbances have likely led to an increase in hydrological limitations to Sphagnum recovery, which may impact peatland ecohydrological resilience.

What (science for) adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture? A commentary on “A way forward on adaptation to climate change in Colombian agriculture: perspectives towards 2050” by J. Ramirez-Villegas, M. Salazar, A. Jarvis, C. E. Navarro-Valcines.

Climate change is putting Colombian agriculture under significant stress and, if no adaptation is made, the latter will be severely impacted during the next decades. Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2012) set out a government-led, top-down, techno-scientific proposal for a way forward by which Colombian agriculture could adapt to climate change. However, this proposal largely overlooks the root causes of vulnerability of Colombian agriculture, and of smallholders in particular. I discuss some of the hidden assumptions underpinning this proposal and of the arguments employed by Ramirez-Villegas et al., based on existing literature on Colombian agriculture and the wider scientific debate on adaptation to climate change. While technical measures may play an important role in the adaptation of Colombian agriculture to climate change, I question whether the actions listed in the proposal alone and specifically for smallholders, truly represent priority issues. I suggest that by i) looking at vulnerability before adaptation, ii) contextualising climate change as one of multiple exposures, and iii) truly putting smallholders at the centre of adaptation, i.e. to learn about and with them, different and perhaps more urgent priorities for action can be identified. Ultimately, I argue that what is at stake is not only a list of adaptation measures but, more importantly, the scientific approach from which priorities for action are identified. In this respect, I propose that transformative rather than technical fix adaptation represents a better approach for Colombian agriculture and smallholders in particular, in the face of climate change.

Introduction to politics of climate change: discourses of policy and practice in developing countries

This Themed Section aims to increase understanding of how the idea of climate change, and the policies and actions that spring from it, travel beyond their origins in natural sciences to meet different political arenas in the developing world. It takes a discursive approach whereby climate change is not just a set of physical processes but also a series of messages, narratives and policy prescriptions. The articles are mostly case study-based and focus on sub-Saharan Africa and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). They are organised around three interlinked themes. The first theme concerns the processes of rapid technicalisation and professionalisation of the climate change ‘industry’, which have sustantially narrowed the boundaries of what can be viewed as a legitimate social response to the problem of global warming. The second theme deals with the ideological effects of the climate change industry, which is ‘depoliticisation’, in this case the deflection of attention away from underlying political conditions of vulnerability and exploitation towards the nature of the physical hazard itself. The third theme concerns the institutional effects of an insufficiently socialised idea of climate change, which is the maintenance of existing relations of power or their reconfiguration in favour of the already powerful. Overall, the articles suggest that greater scrutiny of the discursive and political dimensions of mitigation and adaptation activities is required. In particular, greater attention should be directed towards the policy consequences that governments and donors construct as a result of their framing and rendition of climate change issues.

Terrorist transgressions: gendered representations of the terrorist in visual culture

The aim of Terrorist Transgressions is to analyse the myths inscribed in images of the terrorist and identify how agency is attributed to representation through invocations and inversions of gender stereotypes. In modern discourses on the terrorist the horror experienced in Western societies was the appearance of a new sense of the vulnerability of the body politic, and therefore of the modern self with its direct dependency on security and property. The terrorist has been constructed as the epitome of transgression against economic resources and moral, physical and political boundaries. Although terrorism has been the focus of intense academic activity, cultural representations of the terrorist have received less attention. Yet terrorism is dependent on spectacle and the topic is subject to forceful exposure in popular media. While the terrorist is predominantly aligned with masculinity, women have been active in terrorist organisations since the late 19th century and in suicidal terrorist attacks since the 1980s. Such attacks have confounded constructions of femininity and masculinity, with profound implications for the gendering of violence and horror. The publication arises from an AHRC networking grant, 2011-12, with Birkbeck, and includes collaboration with the army at Sandhurst RMA. The project relates to a wider investigation into feminism, violence and contemporary art.

Cost effectiveness of mitigation measures for water security and water quality in the River Thames catchment: impacts of changing climate, land use and water scarcity

The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.

Increased resting state functional connectivity in the default mode network in recovered anorexia nervosa.

Functional brain imaging studies have shown abnormal neural activity in individuals recovered from anorexia nervosa (AN) during both cognitive and emotional task paradigms. It has been suggested that this abnormal activity which persists into recovery might underpin the neurobiology of the disorder and constitute a neural biomarker for AN. However, no study to date has assessed functional changes in neural networks in the absence of task-induced activity in those recovered from AN. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate whole brain resting state functional connectivity in nonmedicated women recovered from anorexia nervosa. Functional magnetic resonance imaging scans were obtained from 16 nonmedicated participants recovered from anorexia nervosa and 15 healthy control participants. Independent component analysis revealed functionally relevant resting state networks. Dual regression analysis revealed increased temporal correlation (coherence) in the default mode network (DMN) which is thought to be involved in self-referential processing. Specifically, compared to healthy control participants the recovered anorexia nervosa participants showed increased temporal coherence between the DMN and the precuneus and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex/inferior frontal gyrus. The findings support the view that dysfunction in resting state functional connectivity in regions involved in self-referential processing and cognitive control might be a vulnerability marker for the development of anorexia nervosa.

What next for children's services? Can policy at a local or national level have any significant impact on the outcomes for children and their families?

In England at both strategic and operational levels, policy-makers in the public sector have undertaken considerable work on implementing the findings of the Every Child Matters report and subsequently through the Children's Act 2004. Legislation has resulted in many local authorities seeking to implement more holistic approaches to the delivery of children's services. At a strategic level this is demonstrated by the creation of integrated directorate structures providing for a range of services, from education to children's social care. Such services were generally under the management of the Director of Children's Services, holding statutory responsibilities for the delivery of services formally divided into the three sectors of education, health and social services. At a national level, more fundamental policy developments have sought to establish a framework through which policy-makers can address the underlying causes of deprivation, vulnerability and inequality. The Child Poverty Act, 2010, which gained Royal Assent in 2010, provides for a clear intention to reduce the number of children in poverty, acknowledging that ‘the best way to eradicate child poverty is to address the causes of poverty, rather than only treat the symptoms’. However, whilst the policy objectives of both pieces of legislation hold positive aspirations for children and young people, a change of policy direction through a change of government in May 2010 seems to be in direct contrast to the intended focus of these aims. This paper explores the impact of new government policy on the future direction of children's services both at the national and local levels. At the national level, we question the ability of the government to deliver the aspirations of the Child Poverty Act, 2010, given the broad range of influences and factors that can determine the circumstances in which a child may experience poverty. We argue that poverty is not simply an issue of the pressure of financial deprivation, but that economic recession and cuts in government spending will further increase the number of children living in poverty.

It is always on your mind: experiences and perceptions of falling of older people and their carers and the potential of a mobile falls detection device

Background. Falls and fear of falling present a major risk to older people as both can affect their quality of life and independence. Mobile assistive technologies (AT) fall detection devices may maximise the potential for older people to live independently for as long as possible within their own homes by facilitating early detection of falls. Aims. To explore the experiences and perceptions of older people and their carers as to the potential of a mobile falls detection AT device. Methods. Nine focus groups with 47 participants including both older people with a range of health conditions and their carers. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed verbatim, and thematically analysed. Results. Four key themes were identified relating to participants’ experiences and perceptions of falling and the potential impact of a mobile falls detector: cause of falling, falling as everyday vulnerability, the environmental context of falling, and regaining confidence and independence by having a mobile falls detector. Conclusion. The perceived benefits of a mobile falls detector may differ between older people and their carers. The experience of falling has to be taken into account when designing mobile assistive technology devices as these may influence perceptions of such devices and how older people utilise them.

Diversity for resilience : multi-scale application of agro-ecology

The integration of ecological principles into agricultural systems presents major opportunities for spreading risk at the crop and farm scale. This paper presents mechanisms by which diversity at several scales within the farming system can increase the stability of production. Diversity of above- and below-ground biota, but also genetic and phenotypic diversity within crops, has an essential role in safeguarding farm production. Novel mixtures of legume-grass leys have been shown to potentially provide significant benefits for pollinator and decomposer ecosystem services but to realise the greatest improvements carefully tailored farm management is needed such as mowing or grazing time, and the type and depth of cutivation. Complex farmland landscapes such as agroforestry systems have the potential to support pollinator abundance and diversity and spread risk across production enterprises. At the crop level, early results indicate that the vulnerability of pollen development, flowering and early grain set to abiotic stress can be ameliorated by managing flowering time through genotypic selection, and through the buffering effects of pollinators. Finally, the risk of sub-optimal quality in cereals can be mitigated through integration of near isogenic lines selected to escape specific abiotic stress events. We conclude that genotypic, phenotypic and community diversity can all be increased at multiple scales to enhance resilience in agricultural systems.

Colombian agriculture under multiple exposures: a review and research agenda

We adopt the multiple exposures framework to review the existing literature on the impacts of climate change, trade liberalization, and violent conflict on Colombian agriculture. These stressors act simultaneously but policies address them separately, overlooking the root causes of vulnerability. We find that the expected impacts of the single stressors have been relatively well documented, but that limited research has been dedicated to the observed effects of these three stressors and to their interactions. We propose a research agenda in three themes: trade-offs; social mechanisms; and governance. This agenda can inform not only agricultural adaptation but also debate on the alternative agricultural development models.

The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

Integrating risks of climate change into water management

The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change critically reviewed and assessed tens of thousands of recent publications to inform about the assess current scientific knowledge on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Chapter 3 of the report focuses on freshwater resources, but water issues are also prominent in other sectoral chapters and in the regional chapters of the Working Group II report as well as in various chapters of Working Group I. With this paper, the lead authors, a review editor and the chapter scientist of the freshwater chapter of the WGII AR5 wish to summarize their assessment of the most relevant risks of climate change related to freshwater systems and to show how assessment and reduction of those risks can be integrated into water management.

Climate impact research: beyond patchwork

Despite significant progress in climate impacts research, the narratives that science can presently piece together of a 2-, 3-, 4-, or 5-degree warmer world remain fragmentary. Here we briefly review past undertakings to comprehensively characterize and quantify climate impacts based on multi-model approaches. We then report on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), a community-driven effort to systematically compare impacts models across sectors and scales, and to quantify the uncertainties along the chain from greenhouse gas emissions and climate input data to the modelling of climate impacts themselves. We show how ISI-MIP and similar efforts can substantially advance the science relevant to impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, and we outline the steps that need to be taken in order to make the most of available modelling tools. We discuss pertinent limitations of these methods and how they could be tackled. We argue that it is time to consolidate the current patchwork of impacts knowledge through integrated cross-sectoral assessments, and that the climate impacts community is now in a favourable position to do so.

Freshwater resources

This is Chapter 3 of the report of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It describes the risks posed by climate change to freshwater resources and their management.

Parenting difficulties and postnatal depression: implications for primary healthcare assessment and intervention

Postnatal depression (PND) is associated with impairments in the mother–child relationship, and these impairments are themselves associated with adverse child outcomes. Thus, compared to the children of non-depressed mothers, children of mothers with PND are more likely to be insecurely attached, and to have externalising behaviour problems and poor cognitive development. Each of these three child outcomes is predicted by a particular pattern of difficulty in parenting: insecure attachment is related to maternal insensitivity, particularly in relation to infant distress and emotional vulnerability; externalising problems are particularly common in the context of hostile parenting; and poor cognitive development is related to parental difficulties in noticing infant signs of interest and supporting their engagement with the environment. This article sets out procedures for how parenting could be assessed in ways that are sensitive to the domain-specific associations between parenting and child outcome, while remaining sensitive to the child's developmental stage. This set of assessments requires field testing.