Nestle's dynamic forecasting process: Anticipating risks and opportunities

Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process: Anticipating Risks and Opportunities This Work Project discusses the Nestlé’s Dynamic Forecasting Process, implemented within the organization as a way of reengineering its performance management concept and processes, so as to make it more flexible and capable to react to volatile business conditions. When stressing the importance of demand planning to reallocate resources and enhance performance, Nescafé Dolce Gusto comes as way of seeking improvements on this forecasts’ accuracy and it is thus, by providing a more accurate model on its capsules’ sales, as well as recommending adequate implementations that positively contribute to the referred Planning Process, that value is brought to the Project

Antioxidant extraction process for Andean Oca by a photodiode array detector using response surface methodology

Application of Experimental Design techniques has proven to be essential in various research fields, due to its statistical capability of processing the effect of interactions among independent variables, known as factors, in a system’s response. Advantages of this methodology can be summarized in more resource and time efficient experimentations while providing more accurate results. This research emphasizes the quantification of 4 antioxidants extraction, at two different concentration, prepared according to an experimental procedure and measured by a Photodiode Array Detector. Experimental planning was made following a Central Composite Design, which is a type of DoE that allows to consider the quadratic component in Response Surfaces, a component that includes pure curvature studies on the model produced. This work was executed with the intention of analyzing responses, peak areas obtained from chromatograms plotted by the Detector’s system, and comprehending if the factors considered – acquired from an extensive literary review – produced the expected effect in response. Completion of this work will allow to take conclusions regarding what factors should be considered for the optimization studies of antioxidants extraction in a Oca (Oxalis tuberosa) matrix.

Fostering e-participation sustainability through a BPM-driven semantic model

According to a recent Eurobarometer survey (2014), 68% of Europeans tend not to trust national governments. As the increasing alienation of citizens from politics endangers democracy and welfare, governments, practitioners and researchers look for innovative means to engage citizens in policy matters. One of the measures intended to overcome the so-called democratic deficit is the promotion of civic participation. Digital media proliferation offers a set of novel characteristics related to interactivity, ubiquitous connectivity, social networking and inclusiveness that enable new forms of societal-wide collaboration with a potential impact on leveraging participative democracy. Following this trend, e-Participation is an emerging research area that consists in the use of Information and Communication Technologies to mediate and transform the relations among citizens and governments towards increasing citizens’ participation in public decision-making. However, despite the widespread efforts to implement e-Participation through research programs, new technologies and projects, exhaustive studies on the achieved outcomes reveal that it has not yet been successfully incorporated in institutional politics. Given the problems underlying e-Participation implementation, the present research suggested that, rather than project-oriented efforts, the cornerstone for successfully implementing e-Participation in public institutions as a sustainable added-value activity is a systematic organisational planning, embodying the principles of open-governance and open-engagement. It further suggested that BPM, as a management discipline, can act as a catalyst to enable the desired transformations towards value creation throughout the policy-making cycle, including political, organisational and, ultimately, citizen value. Following these findings, the primary objective of this research was to provide an instrumental model to foster e-Participation sustainability across Government and Public Administration towards a participatory, inclusive, collaborative and deliberative democracy. The developed artefact, consisting in an e-Participation Organisational Semantic Model (ePOSM) underpinned by a BPM-steered approach, introduces this vision. This approach to e-Participation was modelled through a semi-formal lightweight ontology stack structured in four sub-ontologies, namely e-Participation Strategy, Organisational Units, Functions and Roles. The ePOSM facilitates e-Participation sustainability by: (1) Promoting a common and cross-functional understanding of the concepts underlying e-Participation implementation and of their articulation that bridges the gap between technical and non-technical users; (2) Providing an organisational model which allows a centralised and consistent roll-out of strategy-driven e-Participation initiatives, supported by operational units dedicated to the execution of transformation projects and participatory processes; (3) Providing a standardised organisational structure, goals, functions and roles related to e-Participation processes that enhances process-level interoperability among government agencies; (4) Providing a representation usable in software development for business processes’ automation, which allows advanced querying using a reasoner or inference engine to retrieve concrete and specific information about the e-Participation processes in place. An evaluation of the achieved outcomes, as well a comparative analysis with existent models, suggested that this innovative approach tackling the organisational planning dimension can constitute a stepping stone to harness e-Participation value.

Analysis of chromium behaviour and speciation during the electrodialytic process

The interest in chromium (Cr) arises from the widespread use of this heavy metal in various industrial processes that cause its release as liquid, solid and gaseous waste into the environment. The impact of Cr on the environment and living organisms primarily depends on its chemical form, since Cr(III) is an essential micronutrient for humans, other animals and plants, and Cr(VI) is highly toxic and a known human carcinogen. This study aimed to evaluate if the electrodialytic process (ED) is an appropriate treatment for Cr removal, through a critical overview of Cr speciation, before and after the ED experiments, to assess possible Cr(III)-Cr(VI) interconversions during the treatment. ED was the treatment technique applied to two types of matrices containing Cr: chromate copper arsenate (CCA) contaminated soil and municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) fly ash. In order to study Cr remediation, three EDR set-ups were used: a new set-up, the combined cell (2/3C or 3/2C), with three compartments, alternating current between two anodes and different initial experimental conditions, one set-up with three compartments (3C cell) and the other set-up with two compartments (2C cell). The Cr removal rates obtained in this study were between 10-36% for the soil, and 1-13% for the fly ash. The highest Cr removal rates were achieved in the 26 days experiments: 36% for the soil, 13% for the fly ash. Regarding the 13 days experiments, the highest Cr removal rates were attained with the 2/3C set-up: 24% for the soil, 5% for the fly ash. The analysis of Cr(VI) was performed before and after ED experiments to evaluate eventual changes in Cr speciation during the treatment. This analysis was conducted by two methods: USEPA Method 3060A, for the extraction of Cr(VI); and Hach Company Method 8023, for the detection of Cr(VI). Despite the differences in Cr total concentration, both matrices presented a similar speciation, with Cr(III) being the main species found and Cr(VI) less than 3% of Cr total, before and after the treatment. For fly ash, Cr(VI) was initially below the detection limit of the method and remained that way after the treatment. For soil, Cr(VI) decreased after the treatment. Oxidation of Cr(III) to Cr(VI) did not occur during the ED process since there was no increase in Cr(VI) in the matrices after the treatment. Hence, the results of this study indicate that ED is an appropriate technique to remediate matrices containing Cr because it contributes to Cr removal, without causing Cr(III)-Cr(VI) interconversions.

Development of process control strategies exploiting knowledge from systems biology: application to MDCK suspension cells

Madine Darby Canine Kidney (MDCK) cell lines have been extensively evaluated for their potential as host cells for influenza vaccine production. Recent studies allowed the cultivation of these cells in a fully defined medium and in suspension. However, reaching high cell densities in animal cell cultures still remains a challenge. To address this shortcoming, a combined methodology allied with knowledge from systems biology was reported to study the impact of the cell environment on the flux distribution. An optimization of the medium composition was proposed for both a batch and a continuous system in order to reach higher cell densities. To obtain insight into the metabolic activity of these cells, a detailed metabolic model previously developed by Wahl A. et. al was used. The experimental data of four cultivations of MDCK suspension cells, grown under different conditions and used in this work came from the Max Planck Institute, Magdeburg, Germany. Classical metabolic flux analysis (MFA) was used to estimate the intracellular flux distribution of each cultivation and then combined with partial least squares (PLS) method to establish a link between the estimated metabolic state and the cell environment. The validation of the MFA model was made and its consistency checked. The resulted PLS model explained almost 70% of the variance present in the flux distribution. The medium optimization for the continuous system and for the batch system resulted in higher biomass growth rates than the ones obtained experimentally, 0.034 h-1 and 0.030 h-1, respectively, thus reducing in almost 10 hours the duplication time. Additionally, the optimal medium obtained for the continuous system almost did not consider pyruvate. Overall the proposed methodology seems to be effective and both proposed medium optimizations seem to be promising to reach high cell densities.

Reclamações dos utentes : estudo dos resultados e medidas correctivas no contexto dos Agrupamentos de Centros de Saúde de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo

RESUMO - A qualidade dos cuidados de saúde, evolui ao longo dos tempos e é agora considerada um direito e um pilar fundamental nos serviços de saúde. As reclamações dos utentes podem revelar informação acerca das experiências entre os utentes e as organizações de saúde. Desta forma as reclamações podem ser consideradas como indicadores de qualidade que permitem identificar áreas e/ou oportunidades de melhoria, e de grande representatividade no processo da melhoria contínua da qualidade na saúde. Sendo fundamental dar voz aos utentes do SNS e possibilitar a sua participação activa no processo de melhoria da prestação dos cuidados de saúde, com este trabalho pretendeu-se estudar a forma como as reclamações dos utentes nos ACES na Região de Saúde de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo, contribuem para a melhoria da qualidade nos referidos serviços de saúde. Foram reconhecidas e analisadas as principais causas de reclamação, as correspondentes medidas correctivas e as necessidades e/ou dificuldades no seu processo de implementação, bem como a respectiva avaliação dos resultados obtidos e identificação das recomendações dos Coordenadores dos Gabinetes do Utente no âmbito dos ACES da Região de Saúde de LVT. Efectuou-se a análise de revisão bibliográfica e a consulta dos dados, desagregados, das causas mais mencionadas nas reclamações no âmbito do estudo e foram realizados contactos informais com a estrutura regional e nacional do Sistema SIM-Cidadão. Foram aplicados 15 questionários aos Coordenadores Locais dos Gabinetes do Cidadão dos ACES da ARSLVT, apresentando a investigação um carácter exploratório e qualitativo. Os questionários, foram enviados e recebidos anonimamente através da plataforma para estudos estatísticos Survey Monkey. A sua análise e interpretação, foi efectuada de forma a organizar os seus dados de uma forma sistematizada e permitir categorizar a informação para permitir a sua análise. Os resultados evidenciaram que as reclamações dos utentes apresentadas nos Gabinetes do Cidadão, de certa forma, foram um contributo para o processo da melhoria da qualidade nos ACES da Região de Saúde de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo através do adopção de medidas e acções correctivas, ultrapassando algumas limitações devida à criação de estratégias locais. No entanto foi evidente que algumas limitações não foram passiveis de ser ultrapassadas, pois envolvem decisões do âmbito externo aos ACES. Os resultados alcançados e as recomendações dos Coordenadores, podem evidenciar algumas mudanças organizacionais, mas transparecem a ideia de que existe ainda um longo caminho a percorrer.

On the labor share the long-run equilibrium and its adjustment process

This research computes an Equilibrium Labor Share using a VECM for a panel of 19 countries, analyzes what determines the speed at which the labor share adjusts towards that equilibrium and decomposes this adjustment in terms of real wages and employment. Results suggest that the speed at which a country adjusts decreases with employment protection legislation and labor taxes. Most countries’ labor shares adjustment is made through real wages changes instead of changing employment, suggesting that wage moderation policies may play an important role on the adjustment process without harming employment. Keywords: Equilibrium

Sexing the human skull through the mastoid process

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the significance for sex determination of the measurement of the area formed by the xerographic projection of 3 craniometric points related to the mastoid process: the porion, asterion, and mastoidale points. METHOD: Sixty skulls, 30 male and 30 female, were analyzed. A xerographic copy of each side of the skull was obtained. On each xerographic copy, the craniometric points were marked to demarcate a triangle. The area (mm²) of the demarcated triangle for each side of the skull (right (D) and left (E) sides) was determined, and the total value of these measures (T) was calculated. RESULTS: Concerning the right area of the male and female skulls, 60% of the values overlapped; for the left area, 51.67% overlapped, and for the total area, 36.67% overlapped. The analysis of the differences between the sexes in the areas studied was significant for the 3 areas. Regarding the total area, which is the preferred measurement because of the asymmetry between the sides of the skull, the value of the mean was 1505.32 mm² for male skulls, which was greater than the maximum value obtained in the female skulls. The value of the mean for female skulls was 1221.24 mm², less than the minimum value obtained for the male skulls. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates a significant result in the 3 studied areas, (D), (E), and (T). The total area values show less overlapping of values between the sexes, and therefore can be used for sexing human skulls. For the population studied, values of the total area that were greater than or equal to 1447.40 mm² belonged to male crania (95% confidence). Values for this area that were less than or equal to 1260.36 mm² belonged to female crania (95% confidence).

On the labor share the long-run equilibrium and its adjustment process

This research computes an Equilibrium Labor Share using a VECM for a panel of 19 countries, analyzes what determines the speed at which the labor share adjusts towards that equilibrium and decomposes this adjustment in terms of real wages and employment. Results suggest that the speed at which a country adjusts decreases with employment protection legislation and labor taxes. Most countries’ labor shares adjustment is made through real wages changes instead of changing employment, suggesting that wage moderation policies may play an important role on the adjustment process without harming employment.

Analysis of a controversial decision process: the case of the pumped hydro storage power plant Atdorf in Germany

Based on the report for the unit “Métodos Interactivos de Participação e Decisão A” (Interactive methods of participation and decision A), coordinated by Prof. Lia Maldonado Teles de Vasconcelos and Prof. Nuno Miguel Ribeiro Videira Costa. This unit was provided for the PhD Program in Technology Assessment in 2015/2016.

Relatório de estágio na Caixa Geral de Depósitos

This report will describe the activities undertaken during my internship at the Personnel Department (DPE-UPE4.1) in Caixa Geral de Depósitos (CGD), Lisbon, between September 22, 2014, and February 28, 2015. I consider that it is important to note from the outset i) that the subject of my training was suggested by my supervisor in the DPE and accepted by me; and ii) that the internship consisted essentially of carrying out research and information gathering into the different social systems that coexist within the bank and the application of each legal system in solving concrete situations of the CGD employees. The research and analysis of information was important not only for my study but for the CGD itself, as it enables the department to have such an important matter, full of specific characteristics, condensed into a single document, i.e. this report. This is a complex reality. The various welfare systems differ according to the contractual agreement linking the employee to the employer at the date when the labour contract is signed, and also the unique/singular characteristics of the CGD. In the early stage I started by trying to understand the financial institution and its organization and role and the department where I worked. So I analyzed the CGD Statutes and the legal measures that crystallized the scheme for its employees and I also researched its domestic and international operations. The first month was devoted to the research and analysis of such legislation to understand the creation of the CGD and its path to date. In the second and third months I studied the legal social systems that are applied to different groups of CGD workers. This period was quite important to identify and understand the differences between those regimes of CGD employees as well as the procedure inherent in each case. I highlighted the non-implementation of “the social protection regime of convergence” to the workers of this institution; the differences regarding the allocation of sickness subsidies paid to workers who belong to Social Security and CGA contributors, as well as the enforcement of internal rules to all the workers when a work-related accident happens.Then I focused on to assessing and examining external legislation and several internal regulations in order to obtain solutions to questions raised and situations involving by the workers, in order to understand how the DPE solves these situations. Over the last three months of internship, after this more theoretical work, I began the analysis of concrete situations involving employees carrying out their duties in Portugal and abroad. Some of these situations had been received by the department before the beginning of my internship and others over this period. When I was “working” in the DPE I analyzed “cases” that had been solved and some others without a final solution because they were still in courts. As for the last ones (new cases) I was able to follow their assessment and sometimes their outcome. Some of them became study cases for me. Over these five months of my internship, several cases were analyzed and discussed by legal experts of DPE in which I could participate. I always worked hard. I know that this action contributed to elucidate me about the treatment of the issues, and allowed me to have a direct contact with some workers and be part of a dynamic work team. For these reasons, my internship report is not merely descriptive of activities. It consists of an analysis of rules (legislation) and a regulatory framework of activities and it is also a description of several specific situations solved or in a solution process. Through this work I intend to make known the particular reality of a modern Portuguese financial institution not only because of its importance in our country but also such a large number of employees work here (in Portugal and abroad). I should add that throughout my internship I was allowed to attend conferences, within the scope of the bank in order to get a broader view of some issues related to the daily life of the DPE and the CGD. So, I participated in I Jornadas Bancárias and the Conferência Internacional do Contrato a Termo, given that the CGD is a bank and the DPE deals with legal and labour relations.

CTT, the mail going public

The main purpose of this case-study is to analyse CTT’s privatisation process, a previously Government-owned firm, which went public in 2013, under the terms of the adjustment program agreed between Portugal, the European institutions (ECB and European Commission) and the IMF. The emphasis will be placed on the IPO process, but also on the company itself (its history, current situation and prospects for its new phase, as a publicly listed company). This piece of work aims to evaluate the different alternatives for the privatisation of the company along with the respective implications, as well as the outcome of the actual decision taken by the Portuguese Government. One key aspect of the case is also to understand the importance that the privatisation of the Royal Mail, which can be seen as a peer of the Portuguese company, in the unfolding of the process and in the choice of the privatisation model. The case intends to show how the British process influenced the subsequent option of the Portuguese entities to sell CTT through an IPO, instead of a trade sale. All in all, the overall objective of this case-study is to analyse CTT’s successful sale process, which created the first Portuguese company with 100% free-float. 3 On the last days of November 2013, Steven Bernstein was staring at the window of his office overlooking downtown Manhattan, not even noticing the intense rain that was pouring down. As senior manager at ABC Fund, a pension fund responsible for managing more than 800 million dollars, his thoughts were focused on a very important decision that ABC Fund would have to make in just a matter of days. The American pension fund was considering whether or not to invest in the upcoming Initial Public Offering of CTT- Correios de Portugal, the Government-owned Portuguese mail company. Is this investment opportunity in accordance with the risk profile of a pension fund? Is it a wise decision to acquire shares in a Portuguese company when the country is at the centre of the European Sovereign debt crisis, going through a very demanding economic adjustment program imposed by its bail-out creditors? Would the creation of Portugal's Postal Bank make CTT a sure bet today when its price does not fully reflect the future benefits from entering financial services? Those were some of the questions that were constantly in Mr. Bernstein’s mind over the last couple of days and he was struggling to find the answers…

The interception process in tropical rain forests: a literature review and critique (*).

A review of the literature on measurements of rain water interception processes by forests is made. Information on Africa, Central and South America, and Asia is given. A general analysis is made and the need to further the measurements under field conditions is stressed.