The impact on housing supply in England of planning delay and uncertainty

The time taken to consider development proposals within the English planning system continues to provoke great policy concern despite a decade of inquiry and policy change. The results of an extensive site-based survey and hedonic modelling exercise across 45 local authorities are reported here. The analysis reveals a slow, uncertain system. It identifies planning delay as a serious problem for housing supply and its ability to respond to increases in demand. Only a relatively limited set of factors seem relevant in explaining differences in times and the results suggest that 80% of councils’ performances are statistically indistinguishable from each other. These findings question the policy emphasis put on rankings of local authorities, though some influence from local politics is apparent. Development control is consistently a lengthy and uncertain process due to its complexity. Therefore, success in lowering planning delay is only likely through radical simplification.

Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

"Oft expectation fails": a time-series analysis of construction starts in the London office market

Expectations of future market conditions are generally acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. This empirical study of the Central London office market from 1987 to 2009 tests for evidence of adaptive and naive expectations. Applying VAR models and a recursive OLS regression with one-step forecasts, we find evidence of adaptive and naïve, rather than rational expectations of developers. Although the magnitude of the errors and the length of time lags vary over time and development cycles, the results confirm that developers’ decisions are explained to a large extent by contemporaneous and past conditions in both London submarkets. The corollary of this finding is that developers may be able to generate excess profits by exploiting market inefficiencies but this may be hindered in practice by the long periods necessary for planning and construction of the asset. More generally, the results of this study suggest that real estate cycles are largely generated endogenously rather than being the result of unexpected exogenous shocks.

Fit for planning? An evaluation of the application of development viability appraisal models in the UK planning system

The aim of this paper is to critically examine the application of development appraisal to viability assessment in the planning system. This evaluation is of development appraisal models in general and also their use in particular applications associated with estimating planning obligation capacity. The paper is organised into four themes: · The context and conceptual basis for development viability appraisal · A review of development viability appraisal methods · A discussion of selected key inputs into a development viability appraisal · A discussion of the applications of development viability appraisals in the planning system It is assumed that readers are familiar with the basic models and information needs of development viability appraisal rather than at the cutting edge of practice and/or academe

UK planning controls and the market responsiveness of housing supply

There is growing international interest in the impact of regulatory controls on the supply of housing The UK has a particularly restrictive planning regime and a detailed and uncertain process of development control linked to it. This paper presents the findings of empirical research on the time taken to gain planning permission for selected recent major housing projects from a sample of local authorities in southern England. The scale of delay found was far greater than is indicated by average official data measuring the extent to which local authorities meet planning delay targets. Hedonic analysis indicated that there is considerable variation in time it takes local authorities to process planning applications, with the worst being four times slower than the best. Smaller builders and housing association developments are processed more quickly than those of large developers and small sites appear to be particularly time intensive. These results suggest that delays in development control may be a significant contributory factor to the low responsiveness of UK housing supply to upturns in market activity.

The dynamics of asset prices and transaction activity in illiquid markets: the case of private commercial real estate

This paper investigates the relationship between capital flows, turnover and returns for the UK private real estate market. We examine a number of possible implication of capital flows and turnover on capital returns testing for evidence of a price pressure effect, ‘return chasing’ behaviour and information revelation. The main tool of analysis is a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which institutional capital flows, turnover and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation system in which we also control for macro-economic variables. Data on flows, turnover and returns are obtained for the 10 market segments covering the main UK commercial real estate sectors. Our results do not support the widely-held belief among practitioners that capital flows have a ‘price pressure’ effect. Although there is some evidence of return chasing behaviour, the short timescales involved suggest this finding may be due to delayed recording of flows relative to returns given the difficulties of market entry. We find a significant positive relationship between lagged turnover and contemporaneous capital returns, suggesting that asset turnover provides pricing information.

Housing supply and planning delay in the South of England

There is growing international interest in the impact of regulatory controls on the supply of housing The UK has a particularly restrictive planning regime and a detailed and uncertain process of development control linked to it. This paper presents the findings of empirical research on the time taken to gain planning permission for selected recent major housing projects from a sample of local authorities in southern England. The scale of delay found was far greater than is indicated by average official data measuring the extent to which local authorities meet planning delay targets. If these results are representative of the country as a whole, they indicate that planning delay could be a major cause of the slow responsiveness of British housing supply.

Planning for the reuse of redundant defence estate: disposal processes, policy frameworks and development impacts

This paper reviews recent research and other literature concerning the planning and development of redundant defence estate. It concentrates on UK sources but includes reference to material from Europe and the North America were it is relevant for comparative purposes. It introduces the topic by providing a brief review of the recent restructuring of the UK defence estate and then proceeds to examine the various planning policy issues generated by this process; the policy frameworks used to guide it; comparable approaches to surplus land disposal and the appraisal of impacts; and ending the main body of the review with an analyse of the economic, social and environmental impacts of military base closure and redevelopment. It concludes that there is a significant body of work focusing on the reuse and redevelopment of redundant defence estate in the UK and abroad, but that much of this work is based on limited research or on personal experience. One particular weakness of the current literature is that it does not fully reflect the institutional difficulties posed by the disposal process and the day-to-day pressures which MOD personnel have to deal with. In doing this, it also under-emphasises the embedded cultures of individuals and professional groups who are required to operationalise the policies, procedures and practices for planning and redeveloping redundant defence estate.

Ideology and the by-passing of the planning system: case studies of Canary Wharf, London and The Globe, Stockholm

This paper explores the relationship between political ideology and planning in Britain and Sweden, with particular emphasis on the by-passing of the planning system. The prevailing ideology in each country over the last ten years is outlined and the impact on planning identified. The argument is then given in greater depth through case studies of two major projects. For Britain, this involves setting out the main features of Thatcherism and the way that this has changed the purposes underlying planning and created a diversified planning system. This is followed by a case study of Canary Wharf. For Sweden, the consensus culture and the emphasis on participation and decentralisation are discussed. The new planning legislation of 1987 is outlined. These aspects are then contrasted with the fiscal crisis and the development of 'negotiation planning'. These themes are illustrated by a case study of the Globe in Stockholm.

Ideology, centralisation and urban planning in Britain and Sweden

This paper outlines the main elements of the Thatcherist ideology focusing on the process of centralisation. The implications of this process for British local government and planning are explored. Attention then turns to Sweden with a discussion of the consensus culture and decentralisation policy. Again the implications for planning are pursued with an emphasis on the 'negotiation' style of planning which has emerged in recent years. The concluding section compares the two experiences and notes many similarities notwithstanding the different ideological contexts.

Urban planning under Major: the end of Thatcherism?

This paper explores the urban planning legacy left by Mrs Thatcher. To what extent has Mr Major continued with her approach? Has he developed new directions? This broad question provides the background for an examination of the changes to the planning system since Mrs Thatcher left office. The main themes covered are the new plan-led emphasis, the increase in the coverage of environmental issues, the question of whether a more people oriented perspective has developed with Major's softer touch and the Citizen's Charter and the property-led approach to urban regeneration. The paper concludes that although the contradictions of Thatcherism have led to the relaxation of certain ideological stances to planning, the central themes of Thatcherism - individualism and centralisation - continue unabated.