Fractional State Space Analysis of Economy Systems

This paper examines modern economic growth according to the multidimensional scaling (MDS) method and state space portrait (SSP) analysis. Electing GDP per capita as the main indicator for economic growth and prosperity, the long-run perspective from 1870 to 2010 identifies the main similarities among 34 world partners’ modern economic growth and exemplifies the historical waving mechanics of the largest world economy, the USA. MDS reveals two main clusters among the European countries and their old offshore territories, and SSP identifies the Great Depression as a mild challenge to the American global performance, when compared to the Second World War and the 2008 crisis.

Comparative morphometry and morphology of Anopheles aconitus Form B and C eggs under scanning electron microscope

Comparative morphometric and morphological studies of eggs under scanning electron microscope (SEM) were undertaken in the three strains of two karyotypic forms of Anopheles aconitus, i.e., Form B (Chiang Mai and Phet Buri strains) and Form C (Chiang Mai and Mae Hong Son strains). Morphometric examination revealed the intraspecific variation with respect to the float width [36.77 ± 2.30 µm (Form C: Chiang Mai strain) = 38.49 ± 2.78 µm (Form B: Chiang Mai strain) = 39.06 ± 2.37 µm (Form B: Phet Buri strain) > 32.40 ± 3.52 µm (Form C: Mae Hong Son strain)] and number of posterior tubercles on deck [2.40 ± 0.52 (Form B: Phet Buri strain) = 2.70 ± 0.82 (Form B: Chiang Mai strain) < 3.10 ± 0.32 (Form C: Chiang Mai strain) = 3.20 ± 0.42 (Form C: Mae Hong Son strain)], whereas the surface topography of eggs among the three strains of two karyotypic forms were morphologically similar.

Sanitary conditions of a colony of urban feral cats (Felis catus Linnaeus, 1758) in a zoological garden of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The colony of urban stray cats living in the Rio de Janeiro zoological garden was studied in order to develop a population and health control program. As many cats as possible were captured during two months (47 animals) and were classified according to gender, age, weight and coat markings. They were submitted to a general health evaluation, examined for the presence of ectoparasites and sent to a surgical neutering program. All animals had a blood sample drawn for CBC, platelet count, heartworm and retroviruses detection. Capillary blood smears were made for hemoparasites detection. Coat marking and colors were tabby (59.7%), followed by solid black (17%); torbie (10.6%); bicolor (10.6%) and harlequin (2.1%). The only ectoparasites found were fleas, which infested 28% of the animals. The hemoparasites found were Haemobartonella felis (38%) and piroplasmas that could not be differentiated between Cytauxzoon spp. and Babesia spp. (47%). No cat was found infected by Dirofilaria immitis or FeLV (Feline Leukemia Virus), although FIV (Feline Immunodeficiency Virus) antibodies could be detected (21%). There was no correlation between hemoparasites and FIV infections. The estimated total cat population (mark-recapture method) was 59; 68% female and 32% male, suggesting that a neutering program is in fact needed.

First record of Desmodus rotundus in urban area from the city of Olinda, Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil: a case report

The objective of this report is to describe the first record of Desmodus rotundus in urban area from the city of Olinda, Pernambuco State, Northeastern Brazil, and to draw attention to the possible risk of rabies transmission in this place. After the complaint of a dog owner who observed three bats attacking his dog, images registering attacks of D. rotundus were captured with a video camera. From 09:00 p.m. on 13 February 2004 to 04:00 a.m. of the next day, a high frequency of haematophagic activity and the presence of several bites on the dog's body were observed. This finding represents a serious risk to public health. Thus, it is necessary to further study the bat fauna, with special attention to their feeding behaviour in this place, in order to better know their biology and to adopt pertinent control measures. This is, to our knowledge, the first record of D. rotundus in urban area of Olinda.

Characterization of Cryptococcus neoformans isolated from urban environmental sources in Goiânia, Goiás State, Brazil

Cryptococcus neoformans is an opportunistic fungal pathogen that causes meningoencephalitis as the most frequent clinical presentation in immunocompromised patients, mainly in people infected by HIV. This fungus is an environmental encapsulated yeast, commonly found in soil enriched with avian droppings and plant material. A total of 290 samples of pigeon and the other avian droppings, soil, ornamental trees and vegetable material associated with Eucalyptus trees were collected to study environmental sources of Cryptococcus species in Goiânia, Goiás State. The determination of varieties, serotypes and the susceptibility in vitro to fluconazole, itraconazole and amphotericin B of C. neoformans isolates were performed. C. neoformans var. grubii (serotype A) was found in 20.3% (36/177) of pigeon dropping samples and in 14.3% (5/35) of samples of Eucalyptus. None of the environmental isolates of C. neoformans showed in vitro resistance to three antifungal agents. The knowledge of major route for human cryptococcal infection (inhalation of infectious particles from saprophytic sources) and a total of 60 C. neoformans isolates obtained from AIDS patients with cryptococcal meningitis between October 2001 and April 2002 justify the study of the habitats of these yeasts as probable sources of cryptococcosis in this city.

An Exact Schedulability Test for Global FP Using State Space Pruning

Presented at 23rd International Conference on Real-Time Networks and Systems (RTNS 2015). 4 to 6, Nov, 2015, Main Track. Lille, France.

Aperfeiçoamento dos Métodos Utilizados, para a Orçamentação e Planeamento de Obras Rodoviárias

Este relatório foi realizado no âmbito da unidade curricular de DIPRE (Dissertação/Projecto/Estágio) lecionada no Mestrado em Engenharia Civil – Infraestruturas, no Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto. O estágio foi realizado na Divisão Municipal de Obras e Iluminação Pública, na Câmara Municipal do Porto. Neste relatório procurou-se descrever e caracterizar todos os tipos de pavimentos, desenvolver e estudar novas técnicas de orçamentação e planeamento, e ainda analisar vários casos para mostrar a validade do que se realizou. Este relatório inicia-se com uma primeira parte de âmbito teórico, em que se faz referência aos diferentes tipos de pavimentos, analisando-se o seu comportamento, execução, patologias e métodos de dimensionamento. Para além disso faz-se a interpretação do Decreto-Lei nº 163/2006 e das questões de mobilidade urbana. Para o estágio foram necessárias diversas ferramentas de trabalho, não só fornecidas pela Divisão Municipal de Obras e Iluminação Pública, mas também propostas e exploradas pelo aluno. Com estas ferramentas conseguiu-se desenvolver um novo método de orçamentação, estudando os Rendimentos dos operários para um maior rigor nas estimativas de custo efetuadas. As soluções que se apresentam para mostrar o trabalho desenvolvido foram escolhidas de acordo com a sua importância e abrangência para demonstrar tudo o que foi acompanhado e realizado durante o estágio. Começando pela Rua do Dr. Magalhães Lemos, que foi selecionada porque houve a oportunidade de acompanhar e fiscalizar uma obra que contempla a execução de dois pavimentos distintos, o pavimento flexível e o rígido, em Betão Armado Contínuo. Optou-se também por selecionar dois casos de melhoria da acessibilidade no centro da cidade, porque foram dois projetos desenvolvidos pelo aluno em que se conseguiu explorar as diferentes decisões que teve de se tomar. Por fim, apresenta-se o estudo do dimensionamento da Rua de Santo Ildefonso de acordo com as diretrizes da Câmara Municipal do Porto no percurso académico.

Assessment of groundwater contamination in an agricultural peri-urban area (NW Portugal): an integrated approach

The excessive use of pesticides and fertilisers in agriculture has generated a decrease in groundwater and surface water quality in many regions of the EU, constituting a hazard for human health and the environment. Besides, on-site sewage disposal is an important source of groundwater contamination in urban and peri-urban areas. The assessment of groundwater vulnerability to contamination is an important tool to fulfil the demands of EU Directives. The purpose of this study is to assess the groundwater vulnerability to contamination related mainly to agricultural activities in a peri-urban area (Vila do Conde, NW Portugal). The hydrogeological framework is characterised mainly by fissured granitic basement and sedimentary cover. Water samples were collected and analysed for temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, chloride, phosphate, nitrate and nitrite. An evaluation of groundwater vulnerability to contamination was applied (GOD-S, Pesticide DRASTIC-Fm, SINTACS and SI) and the potential nitrate contamination risk was assessed, both on a hydrogeological GIS-based mapping. A principal component analysis was performed to characterised patterns of relationship among groundwater contamination, vulnerability, and the hydrogeological setting assessed. Levels of nitrate above legislation limits were detected in 75 % of the samples analysed. Alluvia units showed the highest nitrate concentrations and also the highest vulnerability and risk. Nitrate contamination is a serious problem affecting groundwater, particularly shallow aquifers, especially due to agriculture activities, livestock and cesspools. GIS-based cartography provided an accurate way to improve knowledge on water circulation models and global functioning of local aquifer systems. Finally, this study highlights the adequacy of an integrated approach, combining hydrogeochemical data, vulnerability assessments and multivariate analysis, to understand groundwater processes in peri-urban areas.

Children’s Indoor Exposures to (Ultra)Fine Particles in an Urban Area: Comparison Between School and Home Environments

Due to their detrimental effects on human health, scientific interest in ultrafine particles (UFP), has been increasing but available information is far from comprehensive. Children, who represent one of the most susceptible subpopulation, spend the majority of time in schools and homes. Thus, the aim of this study is to (1) assess indoor levels of particle number concentrations (PNC) in ultrafine and fine (20–1000 nm) range at school and home environments and (2) compare indoor respective dose rates for 3- to 5-yr-old children. Indoor particle number concentrations in range of 20–1000 nm were consecutively measured during 56 d at two preschools (S1 and S2) and three homes (H1–H3) situated in Porto, Portugal. At both preschools different indoor microenvironments, such as classrooms and canteens, were evaluated. The results showed that total mean indoor PNC as determined for all indoor microenvironments were significantly higher at S1 than S2. At homes, indoor levels of PNC with means ranging between 1.09 × 104 and 1.24 × 104 particles/cm3 were 10–70% lower than total indoor means of preschools (1.32 × 104 to 1.84 × 104 particles/cm3). Nevertheless, estimated dose rates of particles were 1.3- to 2.1-fold higher at homes than preschools, mainly due to longer period of time spent at home. Daily activity patterns of 3- to 5-yr-old children significantly influenced overall dose rates of particles. Therefore, future studies focusing on health effects of airborne pollutants always need to account for children’s exposures in different microenvironments such as homes, schools, and transportation modes in order to obtain an accurate representation of children overall exposure.

Occurrence of antibodies against Leptospira spp. in horses of the urban area of Londrina, Paraná, Brazil

A total of 320 horses were studied in this paper, both male and female, between two and 17 years of age, which were used for traction of wagons in the urban area of the municipality of Londrina (PR). These animals were kept, after their daily work, in abandoned areas or plots, in the outskirts of the urban area of the city. When these animals were attended by the veterinarians, between 1996 and 2005, none of them presented symptoms suggesting leptospirosis. The most frequent reasons for the visit were loss of weight, unwillingness for work, parasitism, laminess, and wounds. Microscopic Seroagglutination Test (SAM), with 22 Leptospira serovars, was performed in sera sample from all these animals. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of antibodies against Leptospira spp. in horses from the urban area of Londrina (PR). From the samples tested, 214 (66.88%) were considered positive, with titers between 100 and 3200, being that 49 (22.90%) presented antibodies against a single serovar of Leptospira, and 165 (77.10%) samples presented antibodies against two or more serovars simultaneously, where in 88 (53.33%) it was possible to characterize the most likely probable serovar. Antibodies against the serovar Icterohaemorrhagiae were detected in 32 (23.36%) animals.

First report of rabies in vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) in an urban area, Ubatuba, São Paulo state, Brazil

The purpose of this report is to record the first case of a hematophagous bat (Desmodus rotundus) infected with rabies virus in an urban area in Brazil. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first such case in Latin America. After discovering a bat in his garden at 10 o'clock in the morning, a resident of Ubatuba municipality asked the Zoonosis Control Center team to visit his home. The animal was caught alive on the same day and sent to the Pasteur Institute laboratory, where it was identified as a Desmodus rotundus specimen. Standard tests for rabies diagnosis were carried out (direct immunofluorescence and viral isolation), and the results were positive. The presence of different species of (primarily insectivorous) bats in urban areas represents a serious public health problem. This case, however, is indicative of a much greater risk because the species in question has hematophagous habits, what means this animals has a low energy reserves and, therefore, its need to feed daily.

Fractional State Space Analysis of Temperature Time Series

Atmospheric temperatures characterize Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, revealing long-memory and complex behavior. Temperature time series of 54 worldwide geographic locations are considered as representative of the Earth weather dynamics. These data are then interpreted as the time evolution of a set of state space variables describing a complex system. The data are analyzed by means of multidimensional scaling (MDS), and the fractional state space portrait (fSSP). A centennial perspective covering the period from 1910 to 2012 allows MDS to identify similarities among different Earth’s locations. The multivariate mutual information is proposed to determine the “optimal” order of the time derivative for the fSSP representation. The fSSP emerges as a valuable alternative for visualizing system dynamics.

Molecular characterization of Cryptosporidium spp. from HIV infected patients from an urban area of Brazil

Cryptosporidium spp. are important cause of enteric disease in humans, but may also infect animals. This study describes the relative frequency of several Cryptosporidium species found in human specimens from HIV infected patients in the São Paulo municipality obtained from January to July 2007. Sequence analysis of the products of nested-PCR based on small subunit rRNA and Cryptosporidium oocyst wall protein coding genes revealed 17 (63.0%) isolates of C. hominis, four (14.8%) C. parvum, five (18.5%) C. felis and one (3.7%) C. canis. These findings suggest that, in urban environments of Brazil, the cat adapted C. felis may play a potential role in the zoonotic transmission of cryptosporidiosis whereas the anthroponotic transmission of cryptosporidiosis caused by C. hominis seems to predominate.

Serological, clinical and epidemiological evaluation of toxocariasis in urban areas of south Brazil

Toxocariasis is a worldwide public-health problem that poses major risks to children who may accidentally ingest embryonated eggs of Toxocara. The objectives of this study were to investigate the occurrence of anti-Toxocara spp. antibodies in children and adolescents and the variables that may be involved, as well as environmental contamination by Toxocara spp. eggs, in urban recreation areas of north central mesoregion, Paraná State, Brazil. From June 2005 to March 2007. a total of 376 blood samples were collected by the Public Health Service from children and adolescents one to 12 years old, of both genders. Samples were analyzed by the indirect ELISA method for detection of anti-Toxocara antibodies. Serum samples were previously absorbed with Ascaris suum antigens, and considered positive with a reagent reactivity index >1. Soil samples from all of the public squares and schools located in the four evaluated municipalities that had sand surfaces (n = 19) or lawns (n = 15) were analyzed. Of the 376 serum samples, 194 (51.6%) were positive. The seroprevalence rate was substantially higher among children aging one to five years (p = 0.001) and six to eight years (p = 0.022). The clinical signs and symptoms investigated did not show a statistical difference between seropositive and seronegative individuals (p > 0.05). In 76.5% of the investigated recreation places, eggs of Toxocara were detected in at least one of the five collected samples. Recreation areas from public schools were 2.8 times more contaminated than from public squares. It is important to institute educational programs to inform families and educators, as well as to improve sanitary control of animals and cleaning of the areas intended for recreation in order to prevent toxocariasis.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.