When to Monitor CD4 Cell Count and HIV RNA to Reduce Mortality and AIDS-Defining Illness in Virologically Suppressed HIV-Positive Persons on Antiretroviral Therapy in High-Income Countries: A Prospective Observational Study.

OBJECTIVE To illustrate an approach to compare CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies in HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN Prospective studies of HIV-positive individuals in Europe and the USA in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration and The Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. METHODS Antiretroviral-naive individuals who initiated ART and became virologically suppressed within 12 months were followed from the date of suppression. We compared 3 CD4 cell count and HIV-RNA monitoring strategies: once every (1) 3 ± 1 months, (2) 6 ± 1 months, and (3) 9-12 ± 1 months. We used inverse-probability weighted models to compare these strategies with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes. RESULTS In 39,029 eligible individuals, there were 265 deaths and 690 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths. Compared with the 3-month strategy, the mortality hazard ratios (95% CIs) were 0.86 (0.42 to 1.78) for the 6 months and 0.82 (0.46 to 1.47) for the 9-12 month strategy. The respective 18-month risk ratios (95% CIs) of virologic failure (RNA >200) were 0.74 (0.46 to 1.19) and 2.35 (1.56 to 3.54) and 18-month mean CD4 differences (95% CIs) were -5.3 (-18.6 to 7.9) and -31.7 (-52.0 to -11.3). The estimates for the 2-year risk of AIDS-defining illness or death were similar across strategies. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that monitoring frequency of virologically suppressed individuals can be decreased from every 3 months to every 6, 9, or 12 months with respect to clinical outcomes. Because effects of different monitoring strategies could take years to materialize, longer follow-up is needed to fully evaluate this question.

AN APPROACH TO THE CHARACTERIZATION OF FIBRONECTIN-INTERACTION WITH MAMMALIAN CELLS

Cell adhesion is a fundamentally important process which has been implicated in morphogenesis, metastasis and wound healing. Fibronectin (Fn), a large glycoprotein present in body fluids, the extracellular matrix, and on the cell surface, mediates adhesion of fibroblastic cells. To study the interaction of Fn with Chinese Hamster Cell (CHO) cell membranes, latex beads coated with H('3)-Fn (Fn-beads) were used as surface probes. Binding of Fn-beads was independent of temperature, divalent cations, and metabolic activity. Identification of fibronectin-receptors has been problematical. To study Fn binding components, Fn-beads were pre-incubated with purified glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) and glycolipids. Among the GAGs tested, heparin and heparan sulfate blocked bead binding. Only sialylated glycolipids, GT(,1) and GD(,1) were inhibitory; however, neuraminidase treatment of cells had no effect. It was further shown that Fn-bead binding could be blocked by pre-treating cells with papain. Furthermore, papain digestion releases cellular material which blocks Fn-bead-cell binding. Beads coated with a fragment of Fn which binds to cells but not heparin (F105) were also blocked by soluble papain digests. It was observed that the ability of F105-beads to bind to CHO cells was dependent on surface charge as F105 on uncharged beads did not bind to cells; whereas, F105 on positive or negative beads displayed cell binding activity. The active component in the papain digests was apparently macromolecular (i.e. non-dialysable) and heat stable (i.e. 100(DEGREES)C for 15 min.). This suggested the inhibitory factor is more likely a glycopeptide, rather than a GAG or glycolipid. The findings of this research can be summarized as follows: (1) the expression of cell binding of Fn and Fn fragments can be modulated by the chemical nature of the surface used for adsorption; (2) factors can be released by proteolytic digestion which block Fn and Fn-fragment bead binding; and (3) since bead binding can be done under conditions which reflect initial Fn-cell interaction, it seems likely that the component(s) identified in this way may play a direct role in the recognition phases of cell adhesion to Fn. ^

4HPR-X radiation mechanisms of interactions in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cells in vitro

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death. However, poor survival using conventional therapies fuel the search for more rational interventions. The objective of this study was to design and implement a 4HPR-radiation interaction model in NSCLC, employing a traditional clinical modality (radiation), a relatively new, therapeutically unexplored agent (4HPR) and rationally combining them based on molecular mechanistic findings pertaining to their interactions. To test the hypothesis that 4HPR sensitizes cells to radiation-induced cell death via G2+M accumulation, we designed a working model consisting of H522 adenocarcinoma cells (p53, K-ras mutated) derived from an NSCLC patient; 4HPR at concentrations up to 10 μM; and X radiation up to 6 Gy generated by a patient-dedicated Phillips RT-250 X ray unit at 250 KV, 15 mA, 1.85 Gy/min. We found that 4HPR produced time- and dose-dependent morphological changes, growth inhibition, and DNA damage-inducing enhancement of reactive oxygen species. A transient G2+M accumulation of cells maximal at 24 h of continuous 4HPR exposure was used for irradiation time scheduling. Our data demonstrated enhanced cell death (both apoptotic and necrotic) in irradiated cells pre-treated with 4HPR versus those with either stressor alone. 4HPR's effect of increased NSCLC cells' radioresponse was confirmed by clonogenic assay. To explore these practical findings from a molecular mechanistic perspective, we further investigated and showed that levels of cyclin B1 and p34cdc2 kinase—both components of the mitosis promoting factor (MPF) regulating the G2/M transition—did not change following 4HPR treatment. Likewise, cdc25C phosphatase was not altered. However, enhanced p34cdc2 phosphorylation on its Thr14Tyr15 residues—indicative of its inactivation and increased expression of MPF negative regulators chk1 and wee1 kinases—were supportive of explaining 4HPR-treated cells' accumulation. Hence, p34cdc2 phosphorylation, chk1, and wee1 warrant further evaluation as potential molecular targets for 4HPR-X radiation combination. In summary, we (1) demonstrated that 4HPR not only induces cell death by itself, but also increases NSCLC cells' subsequent radioresponse, indicative of potential clinical applicability, and (2) for the first time, shed light on deciphering 4HPR-X radiation molecular mechanisms of interaction, including the finding of 4HPR's role as a p34cdc2 inactivator via Thr14Tyr15 phosphorylation. ^

Mechanism of damage sensing and cell killing following the inhibition of nucleotide excision repair by fludarabine in quiescent cells

Inhibition of DNA repair by the nucleoside of fludarabine (F-ara-A) induces toxicity in quiescent human cells. The sensing and signaling mechanisms following DNA repair inhibition by F-ara-A are unknown. The central hypothesis of this project was that the mechanistic interaction of a DNA repair initiating agent and a nucleoside analog initiates an apoptotic signal in quiescent cells. The purpose of this research was to identify the sensing and signaling mechanism(s) that respond to DNA repair inhibition by F-ara-A. Lymphocytes were treated with F-ara-A, to accumulate the active triphosphate metabolite and subsequently DNA repair was activated by UV irradiation. Pre-incubation of lymphocytes with 3 μM F-ara-A inhibited DNA repair initiated by 2 J/m2 UV and induced greater than additive apoptosis after 24 h. Blocking the incorporation of F-ara-A nucleotide into repairing DNA using 30 μM aphidicolin considerably lowered the apoptotic response. ^ Wild-type quiescent cells showed a significant loss in viability than did cells lacking functional sensor kinase DNA-PKcs or p53 as measured by colony formation assays. The functional status of ATM did not appear to affect the apoptotic outcome. Immunoprecipitation studies showed an interaction between the catalytic sub-unit of DNA-PK and p53 following DNA repair inhibition. Confocal fluorescence microscopy studies have indicated the localization pattern of p53, DNA-PK and γ-H2AX in the nucleus following DNA damage. Foci formation by γ-H2AX was seen as an early event that is followed by interaction with DNA-PKcs. p53 serine-15 phosphorylation and accumulation were detected 2 h after treatment. Fas/Fas ligand expression increased significantly after repair inhibition and was dependent on the functional status of p53. Blocking the interaction between Fas and Fas ligand by neutralizing antibodies significantly rescued the apoptotic fraction of cells. ^ Collectively, these results suggest that incorporation of the nucleoside analog into repair patches is critical for cytotoxicity and that the DNA damage, while being sensed by DNA-PK, may induce apoptosis by a p53-mediated signaling mechanism. Based on the results, a model is proposed for the sensing of F-ara-A-induced DNA damage that includes γ-H2AX, DNA-PKcs, and p53. Targeting the cellular DNA repair mechanism can be a potential means of producing cytotoxicity in a quiescent population of neoplastic cells. These results also provide mechanistic support for the success of nucleoside analogs with cyclophosphamide or other agents that initiate excision repair processes, in the clinic. ^

Current United States stem cell policy considerations and a recommendation for an alternative policy based on guidelines from existing international policies

Embryonic stem cell research is a widely debated topic in modern politics and religion. Differing views on the fetal rights conflict with the rights of an embryo. Those who believe an embryo has the same human qualities as a fetus accordingly believe embryonic stem cell research is unethical because it destroys a potential human life. However, scientists advocate the embryo does not have human qualities and should be used for valuable research in the stem cell field. Stem cell research may lead to vast developments in medical treatments, including cancer and brain conditions and injuries that are currently incurable. ^ The current stem cell policy introduced by President Bush in 2001 in an attempt to balance the moral issues with the need for scientific research has broad negative implications on the furthering of stem cell research. There is a limited diversity of available stem cell lines, there may be constitutional issues, there is an increasing disparity between the public and private research spheres, and the U.S. is struggling to maintain its scientific community. The U.S. must develop a new stem cell research policy that will balance the interest of science and public health with the moral issues that concern the public. ^ The United Kingdom allows researchers great liberty in conducting research, permitting the creation of embryos for the sole purpose of research, while Germany is equally conservative in their laws, as their policies support the philosophy that all embryos deserve the protection of full life. The United States should adopt a policy that takes the "middle ground" approach and permit research on excess embryos created for IVF purposes, rather than simply discarding those potentially valuable research tools. ^

Proteomic identification and functional characterization of prohibitin 1 and 2 in T cell activation, expansion, survival and disease

Several immune pathologies are the result of aberrant regulation of T lymphocytes. Pronounced T cell proliferation can result in autoimmunity or hematologic malignancy, whereas loss of T cell activity can manifest as immunodeficiency. Thus, there is a critical need to characterize the signal transduction pathways that mediate T cell activation so that novel and rational strategies to detect and effectively control T cell mediated disease can be achieved. ^ The first objective of this dissertation was to identify and characterize novel T cell regulatory proteins that are differentially expressed upon antigen induced activation. Using a functional proteomics approach, two members of the prohibitin (Phb) family of proteins, Phb1 and Phb2, were determined to be upregulated upon activation of primary human T cells. Furthermore, their regulated expression was dependent upon CD3 and CD28 signaling pathways which synergistically increased their expression. In contrast to previous reports of Phb nuclear localization, both proteins were determined to localize to the mitochondrial inner membrane of human T cells. Additionally, novel Phb phosphorylation sites were identified and characterized using mass spectrometry, phosphospecific antibodies and site directed mutagenesis. ^ Prohibitins have been proposed to play important roles in cancer development however the mechanism of action has not been elucidated. The second objective of this dissertation was to define the functional role of Phbs in T cell activity, survival and disease. Compared to levels in normal human T cells, Phb expression was higher in the human tumor T cell line Kit225 and subcellularly localized to the mitochondrion. Ablation of Phb expression by siRNA treatment of Kit225 cells resulted in disruption of mitochondrial membrane potential and significantly enhanced their sensitivity to cell death, suggesting they serve a protective function in T cells. Furthermore, Q-RT-PCR analysis of human oncology cDNA expression libraries indicated the Phbs may represent hematological cancer biomarkers. Indeed, Phb1 and Phb2 protein levels were 6-10 fold higher in peripheral blood mononuclear cells isolated from malignant lymphoma and multiple myeloma patients compared to healthy individuals. ^ Taken together, Phb1 and Phb2 are novel phosphoproteins upregulated during T cell activation and transformation to function in the maintenance of mitochondrial integrity and perhaps energy metabolism, thus representing previously unrecognized intracellular biomarkers and therapeutic targets for regulating T cell activation and hematologic malignancies. ^

The role of AKT-mediated phosphorylation in suppression of MAD1 and the development of new approach in protein complex detection

MAX dimerization protein 1 (MAD1) is a basic-helix-loop-helix transcription factors that recruits transcription repressor such as HDAC to suppress target genes transcription. It antagonizes to MYC because the promoter binding sites for MYC are usually also serve as the binding sites for MAD1 so they compete for it. However, the mechanism of the switch between MYC and MAD1 in turning on and off of genes' transcription is obscure. In this study, we demonstrated that AKT-mediated MAD1 phosphorylation inhibits MAD1 transcription repression function. The association between MAD1 and its target genes' promoter is reduced after been phosphorylated by AKT; therefore, consequently, allows MYC to occupy the binding site and activates transcription. Mutation of such phosphorylation site abrogates the inhibition from AKT. In addition, functional assays demonstrated that AKT suppressed MAD1-mediated transcription repression of its target genes hTERT and ODC. Cell cycle and cell growth were also been released from inhibition by MAD1 in the presents of AKT. Taken together, our study suggests that MAD1 is a novel substrate of AKT and AKT-mediated MAD1 phosphorylation inhibits MAD1function; therefore, activates MAD1 target genes expression. ^ Furthermore, analysis of protein-protein interaction is indispensable for current molecular biology research, but multiplex protein dynamics in cells is too complicated to be analyzed by using existing biochemical methods. To overcome the disadvantage, we have developed a single molecule level detection system with nanofluidic chip. Single molecule was analyzed based on their fluorescent profile and their profiles were plotted into 2 dimensional time co-incident photon burst diagram (2DTP). From this 2DTP, protein complexes were characterized. These results demonstrate that the nanochannel protein detection system is a promising tool for future molecular biology. ^

Transcriptional and translational regulators of gene expression in germ cell development

Germ cell development is a highly coordinated process driven, in part, by regulatory mechanisms that control gene expression. Not only transcription, but also translation, is under regulatory control to direct proper germ cell development. In this dissertation, I have focused on two regulators of germ cell development. One is the homeobox protein RHOX10, which has the potential to be both a transcriptional and translational regulator in mouse male germ cell development. The other is the RNA-binding protein, Hermes, which functions as a translational regulator in Xenopus laevis female germ cell development. ^ Rhox10 is a member of reproductive homeobox gene X-(linked (Rhox) gene cluster, of which expression is developmentally regulated in developing mouse testes. To identify the cell types and developmental stages in which Rhox10 might function, I characterized its temporal and spatial expression pattern in mouse embryonic, neonatal, and adult tissues. Among other things, this analysis revealed that both the level and the subcellular localization of RHOX10 are regulated during germ cell development. To understand the role of Rhox10 in germ cell development, I generated transgenic mice expressing an artificial microRNA (miRNA) targeting Rhox10. While this artificial miRNA robustly downregulated RHOX10 protein expression in vitro, it did not significantly reduce RHOX10 expression in vivo. So I next elected to knockdown RHOX10 levels in spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs), which I found highly express both Rhox10 mRNA and RHOX10 protein. Using a recently developed in vitro culture system for SSCs combined with a short-hairpin RNA (shRNA) approach, I strongly depleted RHOX10 expression in SSCs. These RHOX10-depleted cells exhibited a defect in the ability to form stem cell clusters in vitro. Expression profiling analysis revealed many genes regulated by Rhox10, including many meiotic genes, which could be downstream of Rhox10 in a molecular pathway that controls SSC differentiation. ^ RNA recognition motif (RRM) containing protein, Hermes is localized in germ plasm, where dormant mRNAs are also located, of Xenopus oocytes, which implicates its role in translational regulator. To understand the function of Hermes in oocyte meiosis, I used a morpholino oligonucleotide (MO) based knockdown approach. Microinjection of Hermes MO into fully grown oocytes, which are arrested in meiotic prophase, caused acceleration of oocytes reentry into meiosis (i.e., maturation) upon progesterone induction. Using a candidate approach, I identified at least three targets of Hermes: Ringo/Spy, Xcat2, and Mos. Ringo/Spy and Mos are known to have functions in oocyte maturation, while Ringo/Spy, Xcat2 mRNA are localized in the germ plasm of oocytes, which drives germ cell specification after fertilization. This led me to propose that Hermes functions in both oocyte maturation and germ cell development through its ability to regulate 3 crucial target mRNAs. ^

The interorganizational implementation of state health policy: A network approach

This is an implementation analysis of three consecutive state health policies whose goal was to improve access to maternal and child health services in Texas from 1983 to 1986. Of particular interest is the choice of the unit of analysis, the policy subsystem, and the network approach to analysis. The network approach analyzes and compares the structure and decision process of six policy subsystems in order to explain program performance. Both changes in state health policy as well as differences in implementation contexts explain evolution of the program administrative and service unit, the policy subsystem. And, in turn, the evolution of the policy subsystem explains changes in program performance. ^

Effects of thymus size and involution on the contribution of recent thymic emigrants to the peripheral T cell pool

The contribution of recent thymic emigrants (RTEs) to the peripheral naïve T cell population is necessary to maintain diversity of the T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire and produce immune responses against newly encountered antigens. The thymus involutes with age, after irradiation or chemotherapy, and due to severe viral infections. Thymus involution results in decreased thymopoiesis and RTE output leading to a reduced diversity of peripheral T cells. This increases susceptibility to disease and impairs immune responsiveness to vaccines. Therefore, studies aimed at maintaining or regenerating thymic function are integral for maintaining and restoring peripheral TCR diversity. Mice that express a K5.CyclinD1 transgene expression have a severely hyperplastic thymus that fails to undergo involution. Both thymocyte and TEC development appear normal in these mice. We have used the K5.CyclinD1 transgenic model to test the hypothesis that preventing thymus involution will sustain RTE output and incorporation into the peripheral T cell pool to prevent naïve T cell depletion with age. The K5.CyclinD1 transgene was crossed to the RAG2p-GFP transgenic model so that RTEs could be tracked by the intensity of the GFP signal. The frequency and number of RTEs in naïve CD4 splenic T cells was analyzed at monthly intervals to 5 months of age. Using this double transgenic approach, we determined that preventing thymus involution does maintain or enhance the number of RTEs in the peripheral T cell pool before and after thymus involution.

Genetic Predictors of Clinical Outcomes in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the US. Emerging evidence has shown that host genetic factors can interact with environmental exposures to influence patient susceptibility to the diseases as well as clinical outcomes, such as survival and recurrence. We aimed to identify genetic prognostic markers for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), a major (85%) subtype of lung cancer, and also in other subgroups. With the fast evolution of genotyping technology, genetic association studies have went through candidate gene approach, to pathway-based approach, to the genome wide association study (GWAS). Even in the era of GWAS, pathway-based approach has its own advantages on studying cancer clinical outcomes: it is cost-effective, requiring a smaller sample size than GWAS easier to identify a validation population and explore gene-gene interactions. In the current study, we adopted pathway-based approach focusing on two critical pathways - miRNA and inflammation pathways. MicroRNAs (miRNA) post-transcriptionally regulate around 30% of human genes. Polymorphisms within miRNA processing pathways and binding sites may influence patients’ prognosis through altered gene regulation. Inflammation plays an important role in cancer initiation and progression, and also has shown to impact patients’ clinical outcomes. We first evaluated 240 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in miRNA biogenesis genes and predicted binding sites in NSCLC patients to determine associations with clinical outcomes in early-stage (stage I and II) and late-stage (stage III and IV) lung cancer patients, respectively. First, in 535 early-stage patients, after correcting multiple comparisons, FZD4:rs713065 (hazard ratio [HR]:0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.32-0.65) showed a significant inverse association with survival in early stage surgery-only patients. SP1:rs17695156 (HR:2.22, 95% CI:1.44-3.41) and DROSHA:rs6886834 (HR:6.38, 95% CI:2.49-16.31) conferred increased risk of progression in the all patients and surgery-only populations, respectively. FAS:rs2234978 was significantly associated with improved survival in all patients (HR:0.59, 95% CI:0.44-0.77) and in the surgery plus chemotherapy populations (HR:0.19, 95% CI:0.07-0.46).. Functional genomics analysis demonstrated that this variant creates a miR-651 binding site resulting in altered miRNA regulation of FAS, providing biological plausibility for the observed association. We then analyzed these associations in 598 late-stage patients. After multiple comparison corrections, no SNPs remained significant in the late stage group, while the top SNP NAT1:rs15561 (HR=1.98, 96%CI=1.32-2.94) conferred a significantly increased risk of death in the chemotherapy subgroup. To test the hypothesis that genetic variants in the inflammation-related pathways may be associated with survival in NSCLC patients, we first conducted a three-stage study. In the discovery phase, we investigated a comprehensive panel of 11,930 inflammation-related SNPs in three independent lung cancer populations. A missense SNP (rs2071554) in HLA-DOB was significantly associated with poor survival in the discovery population (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.02-2.09), internal validation population (HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.02-2.25), and external validation (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.01-2.29) population. Rs2900420 in KLRK1 was significantly associated with a reduced risk for death in the discovery (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.60-0.96) and internal validation (HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61-0.99) populations, and the association reached borderline significance in the external validation population (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.63-1.02). We also evaluated these inflammation-related SNPs in NSCLC patients in never smokers. Lung cancer in never smokers has been increasingly recognized as distinct disease from that in ever-smokers. A two-stage study was performed using a discovery population from MD Anderson (411 patients) and a validation population from Mayo Clinic (311 patients). Three SNPs (IL17RA:rs879576, BMP8A:rs698141, and STK:rs290229) that were significantly associated with survival were validated (pCD74:rs1056400 and CD38:rs10805347) were borderline significant (p=0.08) in the Mayo Clinic population. In the combined analysis, IL17RA:rs879576 resulted in a 40% reduction in the risk for death (p=4.1 × 10-5 [p=0.61, heterogeneity test]). We also validated a survival tree created in MD Anderson population in the Mayo Clinic population. In conclusion, our results provided strong evidence that genetic variations in specific pathways that examined (miRNA and inflammation pathways) influenced clinical outcomes in NSCLC patients, and with further functional studies, the novel loci have potential to be translated into clinical use.

αvβ8 Integrin Interacts with RhoGDI1 to Regulate Rac1 and Cdc42 Activation and Drive Glioblastoma Cell Invasion

As an interface between the circulatory and central nervous systems, the neurovascular unit is vital to the development and survival of tumors. The malignant brain cancer glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) displays invasive growth behaviors that are major impediments to surgical resection and targeted therapies. Adhesion and signaling pathways that drive GBM cell invasion remain largely uncharacterized. Here we have utilized human GBM cell lines, primary patient samples, and pre-clinical mouse models to demonstrate that integrin αvβ8 is a major driver of GBM cell invasion. β8 integrin is overexpressed in many human GBM cells, with higher integrin expression correlating with increased invasion and diminished patient survival. Silencing β8 integrin in human GBM cells leads to impaired tumor cell invasion due to hyperactivation of the Rho GTPases Rac1 and Cdc42. β8 integrin associates with Rho GDP Dissociation Inhibitor 1 (RhoGDI1), an intracellular signaling effector that sequesters Rho GTPases in their inactive GDP-bound states. Silencing RhoGDI1 expression or uncoupling αvβ8 integrin-RhoGDI1 protein interactions blocks GBM cell invasion due to Rho GTPase hyperactivation. These data reveal for the first time that αvβ8 integrin, via interactions with RhoGDI1, suppresses activation of Rho proteins to promote GBM cell invasiveness. Hence, targeting the αvβ8 integrin-RhoGDI1 signaling axis may be an effective strategy for blocking GBM cell invasion.

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AS INPUT FOR PREDICTIVE MODELING: PREDICTING CARDIAC ARREST IN A PEDIATRIC INTENSIVE CARE UNIT

The first manuscript, entitled "Time-Series Analysis as Input for Clinical Predictive Modeling: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" lays out the theoretical background for the project. There are several core concepts presented in this paper. First, traditional multivariate models (where each variable is represented by only one value) provide single point-in-time snapshots of patient status: they are incapable of characterizing deterioration. Since deterioration is consistently identified as a precursor to cardiac arrests, we maintain that the traditional multivariate paradigm is insufficient for predicting arrests. We identify time series analysis as a method capable of characterizing deterioration in an objective, mathematical fashion, and describe how to build a general foundation for predictive modeling using time series analysis results as latent variables. Building a solid foundation for any given modeling task involves addressing a number of issues during the design phase. These include selecting the proper candidate features on which to base the model, and selecting the most appropriate tool to measure them. We also identified several unique design issues that are introduced when time series data elements are added to the set of candidate features. One such issue is in defining the duration and resolution of time series elements required to sufficiently characterize the time series phenomena being considered as candidate features for the predictive model. Once the duration and resolution are established, there must also be explicit mathematical or statistical operations that produce the time series analysis result to be used as a latent candidate feature. In synthesizing the comprehensive framework for building a predictive model based on time series data elements, we identified at least four classes of data that can be used in the model design. The first two classes are shared with traditional multivariate models: multivariate data and clinical latent features. Multivariate data is represented by the standard one value per variable paradigm and is widely employed in a host of clinical models and tools. These are often represented by a number present in a given cell of a table. Clinical latent features derived, rather than directly measured, data elements that more accurately represent a particular clinical phenomenon than any of the directly measured data elements in isolation. The second two classes are unique to the time series data elements. The first of these is the raw data elements. These are represented by multiple values per variable, and constitute the measured observations that are typically available to end users when they review time series data. These are often represented as dots on a graph. The final class of data results from performing time series analysis. This class of data represents the fundamental concept on which our hypothesis is based. The specific statistical or mathematical operations are up to the modeler to determine, but we generally recommend that a variety of analyses be performed in order to maximize the likelihood that a representation of the time series data elements is produced that is able to distinguish between two or more classes of outcomes. The second manuscript, entitled "Building Clinical Prediction Models Using Time Series Data: Modeling Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric ICU" provides a detailed description, start to finish, of the methods required to prepare the data, build, and validate a predictive model that uses the time series data elements determined in the first paper. One of the fundamental tenets of the second paper is that manual implementations of time series based models are unfeasible due to the relatively large number of data elements and the complexity of preprocessing that must occur before data can be presented to the model. Each of the seventeen steps is analyzed from the perspective of how it may be automated, when necessary. We identify the general objectives and available strategies of each of the steps, and we present our rationale for choosing a specific strategy for each step in the case of predicting cardiac arrest in a pediatric intensive care unit. Another issue brought to light by the second paper is that the individual steps required to use time series data for predictive modeling are more numerous and more complex than those used for modeling with traditional multivariate data. Even after complexities attributable to the design phase (addressed in our first paper) have been accounted for, the management and manipulation of the time series elements (the preprocessing steps in particular) are issues that are not present in a traditional multivariate modeling paradigm. In our methods, we present the issues that arise from the time series data elements: defining a reference time; imputing and reducing time series data in order to conform to a predefined structure that was specified during the design phase; and normalizing variable families rather than individual variable instances. The final manuscript, entitled: "Using Time-Series Analysis to Predict Cardiac Arrest in a Pediatric Intensive Care Unit" presents the results that were obtained by applying the theoretical construct and its associated methods (detailed in the first two papers) to the case of cardiac arrest prediction in a pediatric intensive care unit. Our results showed that utilizing the trend analysis from the time series data elements reduced the number of classification errors by 73%. The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve increased from a baseline of 87% to 98% by including the trend analysis. In addition to the performance measures, we were also able to demonstrate that adding raw time series data elements without their associated trend analyses improved classification accuracy as compared to the baseline multivariate model, but diminished classification accuracy as compared to when just the trend analysis features were added (ie, without adding the raw time series data elements). We believe this phenomenon was largely attributable to overfitting, which is known to increase as the ratio of candidate features to class examples rises. Furthermore, although we employed several feature reduction strategies to counteract the overfitting problem, they failed to improve the performance beyond that which was achieved by exclusion of the raw time series elements. Finally, our data demonstrated that pulse oximetry and systolic blood pressure readings tend to start diminishing about 10-20 minutes before an arrest, whereas heart rates tend to diminish rapidly less than 5 minutes before an arrest.

The risk prediction for SPM and its impact on the survival in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth common malignancy in the world, with high rates of developing second primary malignancy (SPM) and moderately low survival rates. This disease has become an enormous challenge in the cancer research and treatments. For HNSCC patients, a highly significant cause of post-treatment mortality and morbidity is the development of SPM. Hence, assessment of predicting the risk for the development of SPM would be very helpful for patients, clinicians and policy makers to estimate the survival of patients with HNSCC. In this study, we built a prognostic model to predict the risk of developing SPM in patients with newly diagnosed HNSCC. The dataset used in this research was obtained from The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center. For the first aim, we used stepwise logistic regression to identify the prognostic factors for the development of SPM. Our final model contained cancer site and overall cancer stage as our risk factors for SPM. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p-value= 0.15>0.05) showed the final prognostic model fit the data well. The area under the ROC curve was 0.72 that suggested the discrimination ability of our model was acceptable. The internal validation confirmed the prognostic model was a good fit and the final prognostic model would not over optimistically predict the risk of SPM. This model needs external validation by using large data sample size before it can be generalized to predict SPM risk for other HNSCC patients. For the second aim, we utilized a multistate survival analysis approach to estimate the probability of death for HNSCC patients taking into consideration of the possibility of SPM. Patients without SPM were associated with longer survival. These findings suggest that the development of SPM could be a predictor of survival rates among the patients with HNSCC.^

Induction of synthetic lethality in mutant KRAS cells for non-small cell lung cancers chemoprevention and therapy

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in both men and women in the United States and worldwide. Despite improvement in treatment strategies, the 5-year survival rate of lung cancer patients remains low. Thus, effective chemoprevention and treatment approaches are sorely needed. Mutations and activation of KRAS occur frequently in tobacco users and the early stage of development of non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC). So they are thought to be the primary driver for lung carcinogenesis. My work showed that KRAS mutations and activations modulated the expression of TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL) receptors by up-regulating death receptors and down-regulating decoy receptors. In addition, we showed that KRAS suppresses cellular FADD-like IL-1β-converting enzyme (FLICE)-like inhibitory protein (c-FLIP) expression through activation of ERK/MAPK-mediated activation of c-MYC which means the mutant KRAS cells could be specifically targeted via TRAIL induced apoptosis. The expression level of Inhibitors of Apoptosis Proteins (IAPs) in mutant KRAS cells is usually high which could be overcome by the second mitochondria-derived activator of caspases (Smac) mimetic. So the combination of TRAIL and Smac mimetic induced the synthetic lethal reaction specifically in the mutant-KRAS cells but not in normal lung cells and wild-type KRAS lung cancer cells. Therefore, a synthetic lethal interaction among TRAIL, Smac mimetic and KRAS mutations could be used as an approach for chemoprevention and treatment of NSCLC with KRAS mutations. Further data in animal experiments showed that short-term, intermittent treatment with TRAIL and Smac mimetic induced apoptosis in mutant KRAS cells and reduced tumor burden in a KRAS-induced pre-malignancy model and mutant KRAS NSCLC xenograft models. These results show the great potential benefit of a selective therapeutic approach for the chemoprevention and treatment of NSCLC with KRAS mutations.