Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.

What's in a measure? A multi-method study of child sexual offenders' beliefs

The hypothesis that child sexual offenders (CSOs) hold distorted, offence-supportive beliefs is usually investigated using interview and questionnaire techniques. However, in light of various problems associated with the use of these techniques, researchers are increasingly turning to cognitive-experimental approaches. To date, no study has examined potential differences in the nature of the beliefs that are revealed using interview, questionnaire, and experimental methods. In this study, data is gathered using these three methods and the results triangulated. CSOs are interviewed and the content categorised into five belief types. CSOs and offender controls then complete a questionnaire measure of offence-supportive beliefs and an experimental task (Rapid Serial Visual Presentation-Modified, or RSVP-M), which uses sentence reading times to explore content held in cognitive structures. As hypothesised, CSOs showed evidence of holding distorted beliefs according to the interview and questionnaire measures. Against predictions, however, CSOs did not show evidence of holding distorted belief structures on the RSVP-M task. In fact, the three methods showed no agreement regarding the belief types each CSO was deemed to hold. These results raise important questions about the phenomena and potential artefacts measured by each method.

Role of dopamine D3 and serotonin 5-HT1A receptors in l-DOPA-induced dyskinesias and effects of sarizotan in the 6-hydroxydopamine-lesioned rat model of Parkinson's disease

Sarizotan, a 5-HT1A agonist with additional affinity for D3 and D4 receptors, has been demonstrated to have anti-dyskinetic effects. The mechanism by which these effects occur is not clear. Using unilateral 6-hydroxydopamine-lesioned rats that received chronic intraperitoneal (ip) administration of L-3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine (L-DOPA) we investigated the involvement of D3 and 5-HT1A receptors in the effects of sarizotan on contraversive circling and abnormal involuntary movements (AIMs). Before sensitization by chronic L-DOPA treatment (12.5 with 3.25 mg/kg benserazide ip, twice daily for 21 days), no effect of the selective D3 agonist, PD128907 (1 or 3 mg/kg ip), or the selectiveD3 antagonist,GR103691 (0.5 or 1.5 mg/kg ip), was observed. Treatment with sarizotan (1 or 5 mg/kg ip) dosedependently inhibited the L-DOPA-induced contraversive turning and AIMs. In co-treatment with the 5-HT1A antagonist, WAY100635 (1 mg/kg ip), sarizotan failed to affect this behaviour, confirming the prominent 5-HT1A receptor-mediated mechanism of action. In the presence of PD128907 (3 mg/kg ip), the effects of sarizotan on contraversive turning, locomotive dyskinesia and axial dystonia, but not on orolingual and forelimb dyskinesia, were blocked. On its own, PD128907 had no effect on the behavioural effects of L-DOPA except that it tended to reduce orolingual and forelimb dyskinesia. GR103691 had no effect on its own or in combination with sarizotan. These data identify an involvement of D3 receptors in the action of sarizotan on some, but not all L-DOPA-induced motor side effects. This selective involvement is in contrast to the more general involvement of 5-HT1A receptors in the anti-dyskinetic effects of sarizotan.

Towards web support for tacit knowledge exchanges

Organisations are continually looking for means to stimulate innovation and creativity, within and across working groups, functions and geographical boundaries. One of the ways to achieve this is through tacit knowledge exchanges in the form of sharing and transfer of knowledge by means of narratives, storytelling, reminders, best practices etc. Knowledge is an invaluable part of the shared practices of communities that need, create, adapt, transform, shape and use it. These Communities of Practice (CoPs) are informally created, evolve over time, and socially bind people together that share the same interests and passions. At the same time, organisations are turning more towards information technology and seek ways of leveraging their investments in Web technologies, in particular, to foster knowledge exchanges between individuals and working groups. The Web may be applied in new, innovative ways to draw dispersed community members together virtually and in particular, to promote tacit knowledge exchanges. We argue for a content-rich web environment that combines tools, services and mechanisms tailored towards tacit knowledge exchanges to support the unique work practices and situational knowledge needs of CoPs.

Engineering molecular self-assembled fibrillar networks by ultrasound

The architecture of self-organized three-dimensionally interconnected nanocrystal fibrillar networks has been achieved by ultrasound from a solution consisting of separate spherulites. The ultrasound stimulated structural transformation is correlated to the striking ultrasonic effects on turning nongelled solutions or weak gels into strong gels instantly, with enhancement of the storage modulus up to 3 magnitudes and up to 4 times more gelling capability. The basic principle involved in the ultrasound-induced structural transformation is established on the basis of the nucleation-and-growth model of a fiber network formation, and the mechanism of seeding multiplication, aggregation suppressing, and fiber distribution and growth promotion is proposed. This novel technique enables us to produce self-supporting gel functional materials possessing significantly modified macroscopic properties, from materials previously thus far considered to be “useless”, without the use of chemical stimuli. Moreover, it provides a general strategy for the engineering of self-organized fiber network architectures, and we are consequently able to achieve the supramolecular functional materials with controllable macroscopic properties.

Architecture of fiber network : from understanding to engineering of molecular gels

A new approach of engineering of molecular gels was established on the basis of a nucleation-initiated network formation mechanism. A variety of gel network structures can be obtained by regulating the starting temperature of the sol−gel transition. This enables us to tune the network from the spherulitic domains pattern to the extensively interconnected fibrillar network. As the consequence of fibrous network structure turning, desirable rheological and other in-use properties of the materials can be obtained accordingly. This approach of micro-/nanostructural fabrication may open up a new route for micro-/nanofunctional materials engineering in general.

Measuring core inflation in Bangladesh : an unobserved components approach

This paper attempts to construct a core inflation measure for Bangladesh using an Unobserved Components modelling approach. One advantage of the Unobserved Components approach is that this method satisfies some essential statistical criteria for a core inflation measure, which are not guaranteed to be met in other traditional exclusionbased methods. The estimated core inflation series performs well in tracking headline inflation and picking the major turning points in actual inflation. It is also found that there is a negative covariance between the shocks to the core inflation and cyclical inflation, indicating that there may be positive correlation between demand and supply shocks in Bangladesh.

Respiratory pattern in awake rats : effects of motor activity and of alerting stimuli

Our aim was to assess the impact of motor activity and of arousing stimuli on respiratory rate in the awake rats. The study was performed in male adult Sprague–Dawley (SD, n = 5) and Hooded Wistar (HW, n = 5) rats instrumented for ECG telemetry. Respiratory rate was recorded using whole-body plethysmograph, with a piezoelectric sensor attached for the simultaneous assessment of motor activity. All motor activity was found to be associated with an immediate increase in respiratory rate that remained elevated for the whole duration of movement; this was reflected by: i) bimodal distribution of respiratory intervals (modes for slow peak: 336 ± 19 and 532 ± 80 ms for HW and SD, p < 0.05; modes for fast peak 128 ± 6 and 132 ± 7 ms for HW and SD, NS); and ii) a tight correlation between total movement time and total time of tachypnoea, with an R2 ranging 0.96–0.99 (n = 10, p < 0001). The extent of motor-related tachypnoea was significantly correlated with the intensity of associated movement. Mild alerting stimuli produced stereotyped tachypnoeic responses, without affecting heart rate: tapping the chamber raised respiratory rate from 117 ± 7 to 430 ± 15 cpm; sudden side move — from 134 ± 13 to 487 ± 16 cpm, and turning on lights — from 136 ± 12 to 507 ± 14 cpm (n = 10; p < 0.01 for all; no inter-strain differences). We conclude that: i) sniffing is an integral part of the generalized arousal response and does not depend on the modality of sensory stimuli; ii) tachypnoea is a sensitive index of arousal; and iii) respiratory rate is tightly correlated with motor activity.

Wear characteristics of ultra-hard cutting tools when machining austempered ductile iron

Nodularised Ductile Cast Iron, when subjected to heat treatment processes - austenitising and austempering produces Austempered Ductile Iron (ADI). The microstructure of ADI also known as "ausferrite" consists of ferrite, austenite and graphite nodules. Machining ADI using conventional techniques is often a problematic issue due to the microstructural phase transformation from austenite to martensite during machining. This paper evaluates the wear characteristics of ultra hard cutting tools when machining ADI and its effect on machinability. Machining trials consist of turning ADI (ASTMGrade3) using two sets of PCBN tools with 90% and 50% CBN content and two sets of ceramics tools; Aluminium Oxide Titanium Carbide and Silicon Carbide - whisker reinforced Ceramic. The cutting parameters chosen are categorized as roughing and finishing conditions; the roughing condition comprises of constant cutting speed (425 m/min) and depth of cut (2mm) combined with variable feed rates of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4mm/rev. The finishing condition comprises of constant cutting speed (700 m/min) and depth of cut (0.5mm) combined with variable feed rates of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4mm/rev. The benchmark condition to evaluate the performance of the cutting tools was tool wear evaluation, surface texture analysis and cutting force analysis. The paper analyses thermal softening of the workpiece by the tool and its effect on the shearing mechanism under rough and finish machining conditions in term of lower cutting forces and enhanced surface texture of the machined part.

Problematizing 'risk' and the principalship : the risky business of managing risk in schools

Over the past two decades, risk in education has stimulated increasing attention and prominence, with principals bearing responsibility and liability for ‘managing’ risk in schools. As a consequence, compulsory risk compliance régimes have become increasingly complex, technical and time-consuming. This article focuses on the responses of principals to issues surrounding ‘risk’ and suggests that some risk processes themselves may be inherently risky. Principals fear that risk management régimes can incur professional and personal danger while ignoring some commonly known, politically sensitive, ‘risky’ areas. The article considers the scope of risk in schools before turning to ‘undiscussables’: how risk management puts principals at risk, and issues surrounding leaders as risk. Principals’ concerns about marginalization from systemic risk decision-making, the individuation of risk management responsibility and suggestions for action are discussed, along with areas for future research.

Needleless eletrospinning of polystyrene fibers with an oriented surface line texture

We have demonstrated that polystyrene (PS) nanofibers having an ordered surface line texture can be produced on a large scale from a PS solution of acetone and N,N′-dimethylformamide (2/1, vol/vol) by a needleless electrospinning technique using a disc as fiber generator. The formation of the unusual surface feature was investigated and attributed to the voids formed on the surface of jets due to the fast evaporation of acetone at the early stage of electrospinning, and subsequent elongation and solidification turning the voids into ordered lines on fiber surface. In comparison with the nanofibers electrospun by a conventional needle electrospinning using the same solution, the disc electrospun fibers were finer with similar diameter distribution. The fiber production rate for the disc electrospinning was 62 times higher than that of the conventional electrospinning. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction measurements indicated that the PS nanofibers produced from the two electrospinning techniques showed no significant difference in chemical component, albeit slightly higher crystallinity in the disc spun nanofibers.

The western humanist tradition

In this essay, I describe the development of at least three traditions of humanism: the Platonic, the Aristotelian, and the Promethean. These traditions have developed and intermingled so as to produce the complex and multifaceted face of humanism today. The first, Platonic tradition involves a turning away from the world in order to find wisdom and spirituality in a metaphysical realm. The Aristotelian tradition stresses the need to be at home in the world and happy in life even as we contemplate their unchangeable realities. It speaks of the perfectibility of human beings in muted tones and shows a reverence for the changeable world, as well as for the fragile, vulnerable, fallible, and mortal condition of being human. However, it is the Promethean tradition, with its celebration of science, progress, and technology, that has had the greatest effect upon modern civilization and spirituality. The culmination of these various streams of thought was the Enlightenment: a movement that its greatest philosopher, Immanuel Kant, interpreted as giving humanity permission, for the first time, to think for itself. But the Enlightenment leads to a disenchanted world in which spirituality seems to have no place. I argue that my subjectivity is a transcendent reality and that our very subjectivity becomes a real self and a social being insofar as it is drawn towards the Other. Accordingly, a humanist spirituality is possible in the form of reverence, love, and humility in the presence of transcendence. While religions give the names of their gods to this transcendence, humanism gives it other names: Subjectivity, the Other, Beauty, Goodness, and Truth.

Execution of compute intensive applications on hybrid clouds (case study with mpiBLAST)

Cloud computing is the most recent realisation of computing as a utility. Recently, fields with substantial computational requirements, e.g., biology, are turning to clouds for cheap, on-demand provisioning of resources. Of interest to this paper is the execution of compute intensive applications on hybrid clouds. If application requirements exceed private cloud resource capacity, clients require scaling down their applications. The outcome of this research is Web technology realising a new form of cloud called HPC Hybrid Deakin (H2D) Cloud -- an experimental hybrid cloud capable of utilising both local and remote computational services for single large embarrassingly parallel applications.

I vote and tote : moral panics, resistance and the failure of quiet regulation

The term moral panic has entered the media and popular culture lexicon, but retains a particular meaning for sociologists. This chapter expands on existing models of moral panics and outlines a case study that illustrates that folk devils have fought back in recent years, using technologies such as social media to present their arguments (in this instance, turning a local political controversy in Melbourne, the Australian state of Victoria, to their advantage). The battle began over a classice law-and-order issue, that is, the problem of  alcohol-related violence, expecially as it involves young people. However, the conflict took an unexpected turn when the fold devils successfully used the media to prosecute their case and force the state government's hand.

Gender differences in recreational and transport cycling : a cross-sectional mixed-methods comparison of cycling patterns, motivators, and constraints

Background
Gender differences in cycling are well-documented. However, most analyses of gender differences make broad comparisons, with few studies modeling male and female cycling patterns separately for recreational and transport cycling. This modeling is important, in order to improve our efforts to promote cycling to women and men in countries like Australia with low rates of transport cycling. The main aim of this study was to examine gender differences in cycling patterns and in motivators and constraints to cycling, separately for recreational and transport cycling.

Methods
Adult members of a Queensland, Australia, community bicycling organization completed an online survey about their cycling patterns; cycling purposes; and personal, social and perceived environmental motivators and constraints (47% response rate). Closed and open-end questions were completed. Using the quantitative data, multivariable linear, logistic and ordinal regression models were used to examine associations between gender and cycling patterns, motivators and constraints. The qualitative data were thematically analyzed to expand upon the quantitative findings.

Results
In this sample of 1862 bicyclists, men were more likely than women to cycle for recreation and for transport, and they cycled for longer. Most transport cycling was for commuting, with men more likely than women to commute by bicycle. Men were more likely to cycle on-road, and women off-road. However, most men and women did not prefer to cycle on-road without designed bicycle lanes, and qualitative data indicated a strong preference by men and women for bicycle-only off-road paths. Both genders reported personal factors (health and enjoyment related) as motivators for cycling, although women were more likely to agree that other personal, social and environmental factors were also motivating. The main constraints for both genders and both cycling purposes were perceived environmental factors related to traffic conditions, motorist aggression and safety. Women, however, reported more constraints, and were more likely to report as constraints other environmental factors and personal factors.

Conclusion
Differences found in men’s and women’s cycling patterns, motivators and constraints should be considered in efforts to promote cycling, particularly in efforts to increase cycling for transport.