An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SOX18 and the transcriptional regulation of blood vessel development

SOX18 is a transcription factor that is transiently expressed in nascent endothelial cells during embryonic development and adult neovascularization. This protein belongs to the SOX family of transcription factors, ih,which are proving to be some of the key regulators of cell-type specification in the vertebrate embryo. Natural mutations in the Sox18 gene have been shown to result to cardiovascular dysfunction, in some cases leading to death. Available evidence thus implicates Sox18 as an important regulator of vascular development, most likely playing a key role in endothelial cell specification. However; the genetic knockout of Sox18 in mice has produced a confounding result that complicates our understanding of the molecular mode of action of the SOX18 protein. We speculate that Sox18 inky act in a redundant fashion with closely related genes such as Sox7 and/or Sox17. (C) 2001, Elsevier Science Inc.

Gonad development: Signals for sex

The formation of testes or ovaries in the mammalian embryo is critical in determining sexual identity and the ability to reproduce. Recent studies have begun to illuminate the cellular signalling events required for development of functional testes. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regulation of male sexual development by Sry and Sox9

Sry, a gene from the Y chromosome, is known to initiate testis formation and subsequent male differentiation in mammals. A related gene, Sox9, also plays a critical role in testis determination, possibly in all vertebrates. A number of models have been presented regarding the molecular modes of action of these two genes. However, details regarding their regulation, regulatory target genes, and interacting protein factors and co-factors have not been established with any certainty. In this review, we examine new evidence and re-examine existing evidence bearing on these issues, in an effort to build up an integrative model of the network of gene activity centred around Sry and Sox9. J. Exp. Zool. 290:463-474, 2001. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Vascular endothelial growth factor-B-deficient mice show impaired development of hypoxic pulmonary hypertension

To test the hypothesis that Vegf-B contributes to the pulmonary vascular remodelling, and the associated pulmonary hypertension, induced by exposure of mice to chronic hypoxia. Methods: Right ventricular systolic pressure, the ratio of right ventricle/[left ventricle+septum] (RV/[LV+S]) and the thickness of the media (relative to vessel diameter) of intralobar pulmonary arteries (o.d. 50-150 and 151-420 mum) were determined in Vegfb knockout mice (Vegfb(-/-); n=17) and corresponding wild-type mice (Vegfb(+/+); n=17) exposed to chronic hypoxia (10% oxygen) or housed in room air (normoxia) for 4 weeks. Results: In Vegfb(+/+) mice hypoxia caused (i) pulmonary hypertension (a 70% increase in right ventricular systolic pressure compared with normoxic Vegfb(+/+) mice; P

Alterations in gene expression and activity during squamous cell carcinoma development

This study focuses on characterizing the genetic and biological alterations associated with squamous cell carcinoma development. Normal human epidermal keratinocytes (HEKs), cells isolated from a preneoplastic lesion (IEC-1), and two neoplastic cell lines, SCC-25 and COLD-16, were grown as raft cultures, and their gene expression profiles were screened using cDNA arrays. Our data indicated that the expression levels of at least 37 genes were significantly (P less than or equal to 0.05; 1.9% of genes screened) altered in neoplastic cells compared with normal cells. Of these genes, 10 genes were up-regulated and 27 genes were down-regulated in the neoplastic cells. In addition, 51% of the genes altered in the neoplastic cells were already altered in the preneoplastic IEC-1 cells. Immunohistochemical staining of patient tumors was used to verify the cDNA array analysis. Our analysis indicated that alterations in genes associated with extracellular matrix production and apoptosis are disrupted in preneoplastic cells, whereas later stages of neoplasia are associated with alterations in gene expression for genes involved in DNA repair or epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptor/mitogen-activated protein kinase kinase (MAPKK)/MAPK/activator protein-1 (AP-1) signaling. Subsequent functional analysis of the alterations in expression of the EGF receptor/MAPKK/MAPK/AP-1 genes suggested they did not contribute to the neoplastic phenotype.

Emerging pathways in colorectal-cancer development

The past decade has seen the emergence of new pathways in the development of colorectal cancer. There is now clear evidence that subsets of these tumours do not show chromosomal instability and do not follow the suppressor pathway. Instead, about 15% of colorectal cancers are characterised by microsatellite instability (MSI). This feature arises through defective DNA mismatch repair, which is related either to a germline mutation (as in hereditary non-polyposis colorectal carcinoma) or to failure to express a mismatch-repair gene. CpG-island methylation has been linked to sporadic cancers with a high frequency of MSI. This type of methylation leads to loss of gene expression when it occurs in the promoter region of a gene. Tumours may have high or low type C (cancer-related) CpG-island methylation. When methylation affects hMLH1 (mismatch repair gene), the resultant cancer has high MSI.

Developmental expression of a class IV POU gene in the gastropod Haliotis asinina supports a conserved role in sensory cell development in bilaterians

POU-IV genes regulate neuronal development in a number of deuterostomes (chordates) and ecdysozoans (arthropods and nematodes). Currently their function and expression in the third bilaterian clade, the Lophotrochozoa, comprising molluscs, annelids and. their affiliates, is unclear. Herein we characterise the developmental expression of HasPOU-IV in the gastropod mollusc, Haliotis asinina. The POU-IV gene is transiently expressed in I I distinct larval territories during the first 3 days of development. HasPOU-IV is first expressed in sets of ventral epidermal cells in the newly hatched trochophore larvae. As larval morphogenesis proceeds, we observe HasPOU-IV transcripts in cells that putatively form a range of sensory systems including chemo- and mechanosensory cells in the foot, cephalic tentacles, the ctenidia. the geosensory statocyst and the eyes. By comparing HasPOU-IV expression with POU-IV genes in other bilaterians we infer that this class of POU-domain genes had an ancestral role in regulating sensory cell development.

Ecological regulation of development: Induction of marine invertebrate metamorphosis

In the marine environment a wide range of invertebrates have a pelagobenthic lifecycle that includes planktonic larval and benthic adult phases. Transition between these morphologically and ecologically distinct phases typically occurs when the developmentally competent larva comes into contact with a species-specific environmental cue. This cue acts as a morphogenetic signal that induces the completion of the postlarval/juvenile/adult developmental program at metamorphosis. The development of competence often occurs hours to days after the larva is morphologically mature. In the non-feeding - lecithotrophic - larvae of the ascidian Herdmania curvata and the gastropod mollusc Haliotis asinina, gene expression patterns in pre-competent and competent stages are markedly different, reflecting the different developmental states of these larval stages. For example, the expression of Hemps, an EGF-like signalling peptide required for the induction of Herdmania metamorphosis, increases in competent larvae. Induction of settlement and metamorphosis results in further changes in developmental gene expression, which apparently is necessary for the complete transformation of the larval body plan into the adult form.

Profiling the Senior Traveler: An Australia Perspective

Recently, the behavior of senior travelers has become an important area of interest because of its market size and potential for growth. This study describes a study profiling senior travelers according to their demographic and psychographic characteristics. Six market segments were used to highlight the differences that exist in terms of holiday attractions, travel motivations, and information sources used among senior travelers when planning and choosing a holiday. Seniors are shown not to be a uniform conservative market, which has implications for marketing and product development.