Robust Uncertainty Quantification and Scalable Computation for Computer Models with Massive Output

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is both an old and new concept. The current novelty lies in the interactions and synthesis of mathematical models, computer experiments, statistics, field/real experiments, and probability theory, with a particular emphasize on the large-scale simulations by computer models. The challenges not only come from the complication of scientific questions, but also from the size of the information. It is the focus in this thesis to provide statistical models that are scalable to massive data produced in computer experiments and real experiments, through fast and robust statistical inference.

Chapter 2 provides a practical approach for simultaneously emulating/approximating massive number of functions, with the application on hazard quantification of Soufri\`{e}re Hills volcano in Montserrate island. Chapter 3 discusses another problem with massive data, in which the number of observations of a function is large. An exact algorithm that is linear in time is developed for the problem of interpolation of Methylation levels. Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 are both about the robust inference of the models. Chapter 4 provides a new criteria robustness parameter estimation criteria and several ways of inference have been shown to satisfy such criteria. Chapter 5 develops a new prior that satisfies some more criteria and is thus proposed to use in practice.

Résistance à la fracture de boîtiers en céramique soumis à une contrainte de torque par le biais d'un fil en torsion, en acier ou en nickel-titane

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

Three Essays on the Economics of Defense Contracting, Output and Income Inequality

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations. The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, (ii) contracts are unevenly distributed in a geographic sense across the United States, (iii) increased duration of a contract by 10 percent is associated with an increase in costs by 4 percent, (iv) competition does not seem to affect dollar obligations in a substantial way, (v) contract pre-payment financing increases the obligation of contracts from anywhere from 62 to 380 percent over non-financed contracts. The second essay will turn to an aggregate focus, and look the impact of defense spending on state economic output. The analysis in chapter two attempts to estimate the state level fiscal multiplier, deploying Difference-in-Differences estimation as an attempt to filter out potential endogeneity bias. Interstate variation in procurement spending facilitates utilization of a natural experiment scenario, focusing on the spike in relative spending in 1982. The state level relative multiplier estimate here is 1.19, and captures the short run, impact effect of the 1982 spending spike. Finally I will look at the relationship between defense contracting and income inequality. Military spending has typically been observed to have a negative relationship with income inequality. The third chapter examines the existence of this relationship, combining data on defense procurement with data on income inequality at the state level, in a longitudinal analysis across the United States. While the estimates do not suggest a significant relationship exists for the income share of the top ten percent of households, there is a significant positive relationship for the income share of top one percent households for an increase in defense procurement.

Model simulation output data (CCSM3) related to uplift of Africa and Himalaya/Tibet Plateau and the influence on tropical African vegetation

Hominid evolution in the late Miocene has long been hypothesized to be linked to the retreat of the tropical rainforest in Africa. One cause for the climatic and vegetation change often considered was uplift of Africa, but also uplift of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau was suggested to have impacted rainfall distribution over Africa. Recent proxy data suggest that in East Africa open grassland habitats were available to the common ancestors of hominins and apes long before their divergence and do not find evidence for a closed rainforest in the late Miocene. We used the coupled global general circulation model CCSM3 including an interactively coupled dynamic vegetation module to investigate the impact of topography on African hydro-climate and vegetation. We performed sensitivity experiments altering elevations of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau as well as of East and Southern Africa. The simulations confirm the dominant impact of African topography for climate and vegetation development of the African tropics. Only a weak influence of prescribed Asian uplift on African climate could be detected. The model simulations show that rainforest coverage of Central Africa is strongly determined by the presence of elevated African topography. In East Africa, despite wetter conditions with lowered African topography, the conditions were not favorable enough to maintain a closed rainforest. A discussion of the results with respect to other model studies indicates a minor importance of vegetation-atmosphere or ocean-atmosphere feedbacks and a large dependence of the simulated vegetation response on the land surface/vegetation model.

A Decade-Bandwidth Low-Noise Mixer RFIC with a Distortion-Canceling Output Amplifier

This paper presents a 1-10 GHz low-noise downconvert mixer RFIC suitable for wideband receivers. A switched transconductor mixing core is adopted to reduce noise at high frequencies. By adding a series inductor to the RF transconductor, a flat 4-5 dB noise figure (NF) and a high gain of 26.5 dB can be achieved over a broad bandwidth out to 10 GHz. A CMOS output amplifier is also integrated on-chip, employing derivative superposition (DS) for high linearity and an OIP3 of 16.5 dBm. The circuit consumes less than 20 mW of dc power and occupies an active chip area of less than 0.2 mm2.

Damping Torque Analysis of Power Systems with DFIGs for Wind Power Generation

A grid-connected DFIG for wind power generation can affect power system small-signal angular stability in two ways: by changing the system load flow condition and dynamically interacting with synchronous generators (SGs). This paper presents the application of conventional method of damping torque analysis (DTA) to examine the effect of DFIG’s dynamic interactions with SGs on the small-signal angular stability. It shows that the effect is due to the dynamic variation of power exchange between the DFIG and power system and can be estimated approximately by the DTA. Consequently, if the DFIG is modelled as a constant power source when the effect of zero dynamic interactions is assumed, the impact of change of load flow brought about by the DFIG can be determined. Thus the total effect of DFIG can be estimated from the result of DTA added on that of constant power source model. Applications of the DTA method proposed in the paper are discussed. An example of multi-machine power systems with grid-connected DFIGs are presented to demonstrate and validate the DTA method proposed and conclusions obtained in the paper.

Design and Flux-Weakening Control of an Interior Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor for Electric Vehicles

Permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) provide a competitive technology for EV traction drives owing to their high power density and high efficiency. In this paper, three types of interior PMSMs with different PM arrangements are modeled by the finite element method (FEM). For a given amount of permanent magnet materials, the V-shape interior PMSM is found better than the U-shape and the conventional rotor topologies for EV traction drives. Then the V-shape interior PMSM is further analyzed with the effects of stator slot opening and the permanent magnet pole chamfering on cogging torque and output torque performance. A vector-controlled flux-weakening method is developed and simulated in Matlab to expand the motor speed range for EV drive system. The results show good dynamic and steady-state performance with a capability of expanding speed up to four times of the rated. A prototype of the V-shape interior PMSM is also manufactured and tested to validate the numerical models built by the FEM.

Comparative performance analysis of drives for induction motors

The asynchronous polyphase induction motor has been the motor of choice in industrial settings for about the past half century because power electronics can be used to control its output behavior. Before that, the dc motor was widely used because of its easy speed and torque controllability. The two main reasons why this might be are its ruggedness and low cost. The induction motor is a rugged machine because it is brushless and has fewer internal parts that need maintenance or replacement. This makes it low cost in comparison to other motors, such as the dc motor. Because of these facts, the induction motor and drive system have been gaining market share in industry and even in alternative applications such as hybrid electric vehicles and electric vehicles. The subject of this thesis is to ascertain various control algorithms’ advantages and disadvantages and give recommendations for their use under certain conditions and in distinct applications. Four drives will be compared as fairly as possible by comparing their parameter sensitivities, dynamic responses, and steady-state errors. Different switching techniques are used to show that the motor drive is separate from the switching scheme; changing the switching scheme produces entirely different responses for each motor drive.

Input-state-output representations of concatenated 2D convolutional codes

In this paper we investigate a novel model of concatenation of a pair of two-dimensional (2D) convolutional codes. We consider finite-support 2D convolutional codes and choose the so-called Fornasini-Marchesini input-state-output (ISO) model to represent these codes. More concretely, we interconnect in series two ISO representations of two 2D convolutional codes and derive the ISO representation of the ob- tained 2D convolutional code. We provide necessary condition for this representation to be minimal. Moreover, structural properties of modal reachability and modal observability of the resulting 2D convolutional codes are investigated.

Hamburg model basin : numerical and experimental investigations on the dependence of the fluctuations of thrust and torque on the blade area ratio of four-blade ship-propellers /

Contract no. N 62558-2223.