Tendência temporal do tétano acidental no período de 1981 a 2004 em Pernambuco com avaliação do impacto da assistência em unidade de terapia intensiva sobre a letalidade

Apesar da redução na incidência de tétano acidental no Brasil, não houve queda significativa na letalidade. Nesta série de casos, comparamos a letalidade antes e após o estabelecimento padrão de manejo em unidade de terapia intensiva do paciente com tétano no Hospital Universitário Oswaldo Cruz, no período de 1981 a 2004. Em 24 anos, foram internados 1.971 pacientes e antes do manejo em Unidade de terapia intensiva a letalidade era de 35%. Durante 1997 foi instituída a unidade de terapia intensiva para assistência dos pacientes com tétano, e de 1998 a 2004, a letalidade caiu para 12,6%, OR= 0,27 (IC95%= 0,18- 0,39); p<0,001. Esta tendência foi evidenciada em todas as faixas etárias e em ambos os sexos. A centralização da assistência a esses pacientes em um único serviço especializado com Unidade de terapia intensiva de forma precoce, portanto, tem sido decisiva na redução da letalidade, por contar com a vasta experiência da equipe de saúde no manejo do tétano e melhor tratamento sintomático, antecipando as graves complicações da doença.

Tool for discovering sequential patterns in financial markets

The goal of this thesis is the study of a tool that can help analysts in finding sequential patterns. This tool will have a focus on financial markets. A study will be made on how new and relevant knowledge can be mined from real life information, potentially giving investors, market analysts, and economists new basis to make informed decisions. The Ramex Forum algorithm will be used as a basis for the tool, due to its ability to find sequential patterns in financial data. So that it further adapts to the needs of the thesis, a study of relevant improvements to the algorithm will be made. Another important aspect of this algorithm is the way that it displays the patterns found, even with good results it is difficult to find relevant patterns among all the studied samples without a proper result visualization component. As such, different combinations of parameterizations and ways to visualize data will be evaluated and their influence in the analysis of those patterns will be discussed. In order to properly evaluate the utility of this tool, case studies will be performed as a final test. Real information will be used to produce results and those will be evaluated in regards to their accuracy, interest, and relevance.

A epidemia de aids no Estado de São Paulo: uma aplicação do modelo espaço-temporal bayesiano completo

O Estado de São Paulo, por compreender aproximadamente 40% dos casos de aids notificados no Brasil, oferece uma situação propícia para análise espaço-temporal, visando melhor compreensão da disseminação do HIV/aids. Utilizando os casos de aids notificados ao Ministério da Saúde nos anos de 1990 a 2004 para pessoas com idade igual ou superior a 15 anos, tendo como fonte de informação o Sistema de Informação de Agravos e Notificação, Ministério da Saúde, foram estimados os riscos relativos de aids segundo sexo para períodos de 3 anos utilizando modelos bayesianos completos. Os modelos utilizados se mostraram adequados para explicar o processo de disseminação da aids no Estado de São Paulo e evidenciam os processos de feminização e interiorização da doença, além de sugerir que os municípios atualmente mais atingidos se encontram em regiões de pólos de crescimento econômico e possuem população inferior a 50.000 habitantes.

Past/present and future worries: na fMRI study

For the past decade, numerous imaging techniques gave rise to remarka-ble progresses in the understanding of brain’s structure and function. Amongst the wide variety of studies onto the field of neuroscience, neuropsychiatric re-searches with resource to neuroimaging have attracted increasing attention. The present study will focus on the identification of brain areas recruited while normative subjects read sentences related to past/present or future wor-ries. Our main aim was to accurately characterize these brain areas while providing them with a time-stamp that would hopefully help us understand the implications of past/present memories and future envisioning in worrying episodes. With that purpose, functional magnetic resonance imaging data was collected from ten healthy individuals. The obtained data was processed and statistically treated using the General Linear Model and both Fixed and Ran-dom Effects Analysis for group-level results. Thereafter, a Multi-Voxel Pattern Analysis with Searchlight Mapping was performed in order to find patterns of activation that allow differentiation between conditions. The obtained results indicate higher brain activation while reading sen-tences related to past/present worries when compared to future worry or neu-tral sentences. The main areas include frontal cortex, posterior parietal, occipital and temporal areas. Worrying, per se, was characterized by activation of the medial posterior parietal cortex, left posterior occipital lobe and left central temporal lobe. With the searchlight mapping approach we were able to further identify patterns of distinction between conditions, which were located in the parietal, limbic and frontal lobes.

Análise da distribuição espaço-temporal de dengue e da infestação larvária no município de Tupã, Estado de São Paulo

INTRODUÇÃO: O vírus da dengue é transmitido pela picada do mosquito Aedes aegypti e, o atual programa de controle não atinge o objetivo de impedir sua transmissão. Este trabalho objetivou analisar a relação entre a distribuição espaço-temporal de casos de dengue e os indicadores larvários no município de Tupã, de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2007. MÉTODOS: Foram construídos indicadores larvários por quarteirão e totalidade do município. Utilizou-se o método cross-lagged correlation para avaliar a correlação entre casos de dengue e indicadores larvários. Foi utilizado estimador kernel para análise espacial. RESULTADOS: A correlação cruzada defasada entre casos de dengue e indicadores larvários foi significativa. Os mapas do estimador Kernel da positividade de recipientes indicam uma distribuição heterogênea, ao longo do período estudado. Nos dois anos de transmissão, a epidemia ocorreu em diferentes regiões. CONCLUSÕES: Não ficou evidenciada relação espacial entre infestação larvária e ocorrência de dengue. A incorporação de técnicas de geoprocessamento e análise espacial no programa, desde que utilizados imediatamente após a realização das atividades, podem contribuir com as ações de controle, indicando os aglomerados espaciais de maior incidência.

Um Sistema para evolução espácio-temporal de imagens

Atualmente os computadores, os telemóveis mais recentes e as câmaras fotográficas têm o poder de capturar momentos, e estes momentos são gravados em fotografias. Hoje em dia são tiradas imensas fotografias em todas as partes do mundo e com isto surgem alguns problemas, tais como organizar e visualizar as fotografias de forma a transmitir o sentimento e o momento vivido. Procura-se ainda como inovar e dar uma perceção evolutiva de estruturas ou de pessoas captadas nas fotografias. É neste contexto que esta dissertação se insere. A dissertação tem como principal objetivo, oferecer uma ferramenta que consiga proporcionar uma viagem cronológica ao longo do tempo, do passado até ao presente, dado um conjunto de imagens de várias épocas. A ferramenta, chamada Evolapse, permite visualizar uma representação tridimensional de um conjunto de imagens, podendo visualizar imagens de várias épocas para a mesma localização geográfica. A Evolapse processa automaticamente comparações entre imagens e estabelece relações entre as mesmas. Também oferece um método semiautomático para criar as relações. Todas as relações estabelecidas automaticamente e criadas, recorrendo ao método semi-automático, podem ser editadas. A ferramenta foi desenvolvida no âmbito do projeto LX Conventos e os seus resultados são testados no website do projeto. De modo a testar os resultados, a ferramenta produz documentos descritivos que contêm toda a informação necessária para reconstruir a representação tridimensional. O website do projeto LX Conventos ficará disponível ao público, dando a possibilidade a múltiplos utilizadores de visualizarem os resultados gerados pela ferramenta.

Spatial analysis of crime evolution in Portugal between 1995 and 2013

The main objective of this survey was to perform descriptive analysis of crime evolution in Portugal between 1995 and 2013. The main focus of this survey was to analyse spatial crime evolution patterns in Portuguese NUTS III regions. Most important crime types have been included into analysis. The main idea was to uncover relation between local patterns and global crime evolution; to define regions which have contributed to global crime evolution of some specific crime types and to define how they have contributed. There were many statistical reports and scientific papers which have analysed some particular crime types, but one global spatial-temporal analysis has not been found. Principal Component Analysis and multidimensional descriptive data analysis technique STATIS have been the base of the analysis. The results of this survey has shown that strong spatial and temporal crime patterns exist. It was possible to describe global crime evolution patterns and to define crime evolution patterns in NUTS III regions. It was possible to define three to four groups of crimes where each group shows similar spatial crime dynamics.

Politicization of non-political events

Spatial analysis and social network analysis typically take into consideration social processes in specific contexts of geographical or network space. The research in political science increasingly strives to model heterogeneity and spatial dependence. To better understand and geographically model the relationship between “non-political” events, streaming data from social networks, and political climate was the primary objective of the current study. Geographic information systems (GIS) are useful tools in the organization and analysis of streaming data from social networks. In this study, geographical and statistical analysis were combined in order to define the temporal and spatial nature of the data eminating from the popular social network Twitter during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The study spans the entire globe because Twitter’s geotagging function, the fundamental data that makes this study possible, is not limited to a geographic area. By examining the public reactions to an inherenlty non-political event, this study serves to illuminate broader questions about social behavior and spatial dependence. From a practical perspective, the analyses demonstrate how the discussion of political topics fluсtuate according to football matches. Tableau and Rapidminer, in addition to a set basic statistical methods, were applied to find patterns in the social behavior in space and time in different geographic regions. It was found some insight into the relationship between an ostensibly non-political event – the World Cup - and public opinion transmitted by social media. The methodology could serve as a prototype for future studies and guide policy makers in governmental and non-governmental organizations in gauging the public opinion in certain geographic locations.

Land cover mapping analysis and urban growth modeling using remote sensing techniques

The rapid growth of big cities has been noticed since 1950s when the majority of world population turned to live in urban areas rather than villages, seeking better job opportunities and higher quality of services and lifestyle circumstances. This demographic transition from rural to urban is expected to have a continuous increase. Governments, especially in less developed countries, are going to face more challenges in different sectors, raising the essence of understanding the spatial pattern of the growth for an effective urban planning. The study aimed to detect, analyse and model the urban growth in Greater Cairo Region (GCR) as one of the fast growing mega cities in the world using remote sensing data. Knowing the current and estimated urbanization situation in GCR will help decision makers in Egypt to adjust their plans and develop new ones. These plans should focus on resources reallocation to overcome the problems arising in the future and to achieve a sustainable development of urban areas, especially after the high percentage of illegal settlements which took place in the last decades. The study focused on a period of 30 years; from 1984 to 2014, and the major transitions to urban were modelled to predict the future scenarios in 2025. Three satellite images of different time stamps (1984, 2003 and 2014) were classified using Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifier, then the land cover changes were detected by applying a high level mapping technique. Later the results were analyzed for higher accurate estimations of the urban growth in the future in 2025 using Land Change Modeler (LCM) embedded in IDRISI software. Moreover, the spatial and temporal urban growth patterns were analyzed using statistical metrics developed in FRAGSTATS software. The study resulted in an overall classification accuracy of 96%, 97.3% and 96.3% for 1984, 2003 and 2014’s map, respectively. Between 1984 and 2003, 19 179 hectares of vegetation and 21 417 hectares of desert changed to urban, while from 2003 to 2014, the transitions to urban from both land cover classes were found to be 16 486 and 31 045 hectares, respectively. The model results indicated that 14% of the vegetation and 4% of the desert in 2014 will turn into urban in 2025, representing 16 512 and 24 687 hectares, respectively.

Analysis of temporal and spatial variations of forest. A case of study in notheastern Armenia

The forest has a crucial ecological role and the continuous forest loss can cause colossal effects on the environment. As Armenia is one of the low forest covered countries in the world, this problem is more critical. Continuous forest disturbances mainly caused by illegal logging started from the early 1990s had a huge damage on the forest ecosystem by decreasing the forest productivity and making more areas vulnerable to erosion. Another aspect of the Armenian forest is the lack of continuous monitoring and absence of accurate estimation of the level of cuts in some years. In order to have insight about the forest and the disturbances in the long period of time we used Landsat TM/ETM + images. Google Earth Engine JavaScript API was used, which is an online tool enabling the access and analysis of a great amount of satellite imagery. To overcome the data availability problem caused by the gap in the Landsat series in 1988- 1998, extensive cloud cover in the study area and the missing scan lines, we used pixel based compositing for the temporal window of leaf on vegetation (June-late September). Subsequently, pixel based linear regression analyses were performed. Vegetation indices derived from the 10 biannual composites for the years 1984-2014 were used for trend analysis. In order to derive the disturbances only in forests, forest cover layer was aggregated and the original composites were masked. It has been found, that around 23% of forests were disturbed during the study period.

Frequency of metabolic syndrome and the food intake patterns in adults living in a rural area of Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a risk factor for atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease, is related to an inadequate food intake pattern. Its incidence is increasing among Brazilian adults, including those living in rural areas. Our aim was not only to describe the frequency of MetS in adults with or without MetS but also to compare their food intake pattern as assessed by the healthy eating index (HEI) and serum albumin and C reactive protein (CRP) levels. METHODS: Men and women (n = 246) living in a small village in Brazil were included. MetS was characterized according to the adult treatment panel (ATP III) criteria. Groups were compared by chi-square, student t or Mann-Whitney tests. RESULTS: MetS was diagnosed in 15.4% of the cases. The MetS group showed higher CRP (1.8±1.2 vs. 1.0±0.9 mg/dl) and lower albumin (4.3±0.3 vs. 4.4±0.3 g/dl) serum levels compared to the control group. Additionally, the MetS group showed lower scores (median[range]) in the HEI compared to the control group (53.5[31.2-78.1] vs 58[29.7-89.5], respectively). The MetS group also had decreased scores for total fat and daily variety of food intake. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that adults with MetS displayed chronic mild inflammation and a poorer food intake pattern than the control group.

A epidemia de AIDS em adolescentes de 13 a 19 anos, no município do Rio de Janeiro: descrição espaço-temporal

INTRODUÇÃO: o objetivo do estudo foi analisar a epidemia de AIDS em adolescentes no município do Rio de Janeiro para subsidiar políticas públicas de prevenção. A incidência de AIDS no Brasil está diminuindo entre homens que fazem sexo com homens (HSH), exceto entre 13 e 19 anos e a feminização é mais intensa entre adolescentes. MÉTODOS: Estudo de dados do Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) de casos diagnosticados, entre 13 e 19 anos até novembro de 2009. RESULTADOS: Foram analisados 656 casos, com incidência crescente até 1998 e verificou-se que, desde 1996, ocorrem mais casos no sexo feminino do que no masculino. A categoria de exposição homo/bissexual é predominante nos rapazes (50,8%) e a heterossexual nas moças (88,9%). A distribuição geográfica dos casos no município por ano de diagnóstico revelou que houve proporcionalmente grande aumento da incidência na Área de Planejamento mais pobre da cidade e redução acentuada na mais rica. Observou-se uma tendência linear decrescente entre o ano de diagnóstico e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH). CONCLUSÕES: O estudo aponta a necessidade de investimento em serviços de saúde sexual e reprodutiva nas áreas mais pobres da cidade e ações de promoção de saúde direcionadas aos rapazes HSH e às adolescentes.

Fisiopatologia da microcirculação coronária e perfusão do miorcárdio : ecocardiografia de contraste do miocárdio e doppler transtorácico

RESUMO: Este trabalho tentou contribuir para a caracterização da fisiopatologia da microcirculação coronária em diferentes formas de patologia com o auxílio da ecocardiografia transtorácica. Com a aplicação da ecocardiografia Doppler transtorácica foi efectuado o estudo da reserva coronária da artéria descendente anterior e com a ecocardiografia de contraste do miocárdio foram analisados parâmetros de perfusão do miocárdio como a velocidade da microcirculação coronária, o volume de sangue miocárdico e a reserva de fluxo miocárdico. Estas técnicas foram utilizadas em diferentes situações fisiopatológicas com particular interesse na hipertrofia ventricular esquerda de diferentes etiologias como a hipertensão arterial, estenose aórtica e cardiomiopatia hipertrófica. Também na diabetes mellitus tipo 2 e na doença coronária aterosclerótica, estudámos as alterações da microcirculação coronária. Com a mesma técnica de ecocardiografia de contraste do miocárdio foi analisada a perfusão do miocárdio num modelo experimental animal sujeito a uma dieta aterogénica. Além das conclusões específicas em relação a cada um dos trabalhos efectuados há a referir como conclusões gerais a sua fácil aplicabilidade e exequibilidade em âmbito clínico, a sua reprodutibilidade e precisão. Quando comparadas com técnicas consideradas de referência mostraram resultados com significativa correlação estatística. Em todos os doentes e nos grupos controle foi possível comprovar e quantificar o gradiente de perfusão transmural em repouso e durante a acção de stress vasodilatador, relevando a importância da perfusão sub-endocárdica na função do ventrículo esquerdo. O estudo da microcirculação coronária no grupo de doentes com hipertrofia ventricular esquerda revelou que no grupo com hipertensão arterial existe disfunção da microcirculação coronária ainda antes de se observar aumento de massa do ventrículo esquerdo, e que esta disfunção é diferente em função da geometria ventricular. Nos doentes com estenose aórtica foi demonstrado que além da disfunção da microcirculação coronária, explicada pelo fenómeno de hipertrofia, existe outro componente extrínseco que depois de corrigido através de cirurgia de substituição valvular, conduziu a uma parcial normalização dos valores de reserva coronária. Na cardiomiopatia hipertrófica observou-se uma grande heterogeneidade de perfusão transmural e foi documentado, em imagens de ecocardiografia de contraste do miocárdio e após análise paramétrica, a ausência de perfusão do miocárdio na região sub-endocárdica durante o stress vasodilatador de reserva coronária diminuídos em fases precoces de evolução da doença. Foi demonstrado que a reserva coronária na DM2 em fases mais avançadas estava significativamente diminuída. Descrevemos também em doentes com DM2 e sem doença coronária angiográfica a existência de disfunção da microcirculação coronária. Durante o stress vasodilatador, observámos e documentámos neste grupo de doentes, a existência de defeitos de perfusão transitórios ou de diminuição da velocidade da microcirculação coronária. No grupo de doentes com doença coronária confirmámos o interesse da avaliação da reserva coronária após intervenção percutânea na definição de prognóstico pós EAM, em termos de recuperação funcional do ventrículo esquerdo. Em doentes com BCRE e de difícil estratificação de risco, foi possível calcular o valor de reserva coronária e estratificar o risco de doença coronária. Num modelo experimental animal demonstrámos a exequibilidade da técnica de ECM, e verificámos que nessas condições experimentais, uma sobrecarga aterogénica na dieta, ao fim de 6 semanas, comprometia severamente a reserva coronária. Estes resultados foram parcialmente reversíveis quando à dieta foi adicionada uma estatina. Estas técnicas pela sua não invasibilidade, fácil acesso, repetibilidade e inocuidade perspectivam-se de grande utilidade na caracterização de doentes com disfunção da microcirculação coronária, nas diferentes áreas de diagnóstico, terapêutica e prevenção. A possibilidade de adaptar a técnica em modelos experimentais animais também nos parece poder vir a ter grande utilidade em investigação.----------------ABSTRACT: This work is intended to be a contribution to the study of coronary microcirculation applying new echocardiographic techniques as transthoracic Doppler echocardiography of coronary arteries and myocardial contrast echocardiography. Coronary flow reserve may be assessed by transthoracic Doppler echocardiography, and important functional microcirculation parameters as microcirculation flow velocity, myocardial blood volume and myocardial flow reserve may be evaluated through myocardial contrast echocardiography. Microcirculation was analysed in different pathophysiological settings. We addressed situations with increased left ventricular mass as systemic arterial hypertension, aortic stenosis and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Also coronary microcirculation was studied in type 2 Diabetes and in different clinical forms of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease. Specific and detailed conclusions were withdrawn from each experimental work. In the overall it was concluded that these two techniques were important tools to easily assess specific pathophysiological information about coronary microcirculation at bed side which would be difficult to get through other techniques. When compared with gold standard techniques, similar sensibility and specificity was found. Because of their better temporal and spatial resolution it was possible to analyse the importance of transmural perfusion gradients, both in basal and during vasodilatation, and their relation to ischemia, and mechanical wall kinetics, as wall thickening and motion. Coronary microcirculation dysfunction was found in systemic arterial hypertension early evolution stages, also related to different left ventricular geometric patterns. Different etiopathogenical explanations for aortic stenosis coronary microcirculation dysfunction were analysed and compared after aortic valve replacement. Transmural myocardial perfusion heterogeneity pattern was observed in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy which was aggravated during adenosine challenge. Coronary microcirculation dysfunction was diagnosed in type 2 diabetes both with coronary artery disease and with normal angiographic coronary arteries. Dynamic transitory subendocardial perfusion defects with adenosine vasodilatation were visualized in these patients.In patients with left branch block, transthoracic Doppler echocardiography was able to suggest a coronary reserve cut-off value for risk stratification. Also it was possible with this technique to calculate coronary flow reserve and predict restenosis after PTCA Again, in an experimental animal model, applying myocardial contrast echocardiography technique it was possible to study the consequences of an atherogenic diet and statins action on the coronary microcirculation function. Because these techniques are easily performed at bed side, are harmless, use no ionizing radiation and because of their repeatability, reproducibility and accuracythey are promissory tools to assess coronary microcirculation. Both in clinic and research areas these techniques will probably have a role in clinical diagnosis, prevention and therapeutically decision.

Antimicrobial use, incidence, etiology and resistance patterns in bacteria causing ventilator-associated pneumonia in a clinical-surgical intensive care unit

INTRODUCTION : Antimicrobial resistance is an increasing threat in hospitalized patients, and inappropriate empirical antimicrobial therapy is known to adversely affect outcomes in ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). The aim of this study was to evaluate antimicrobial usage, incidence, etiology, and antimicrobial resistance trends for prominent nosocomial pathogens causing ventilator-associated pneumonia in a clinical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS : Gram-negative bacilli and Staphylococcus aureus causing VAP, as well as their antimicrobial resistance patterns and data on consumption (defined daily dose [DDD] per 1,000 patient days) of glycopeptides, extended-spectrum cephalosporins, and carbapenems in the unit were evaluated in two different periods (A and B). RESULTS: Antimicrobial use was high, mainly of broad-spectrum cephalosporins, with a significant increase in the consumption of glycopeptides (p < 0.0001) and carbapenems (p < 0.007) in period B. For Acinetobacter baumannii and members of the Enterobacteriaceae family, 5.27- and 3.06-fold increases in VAPs, respectively, were noted, and a significant increase in resistance rates was found for imipenem-resistant A. baumannii (p = 0.003) and third-generation cephalosporins-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (p = 0.01) isolates in this same period. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that there is a link between antibiotics usage at institutional levels and resistant bacteria. The use of carbapenems was related to the high rate of resistance in A. baumannii and therefore a high consumption of imipenem/meropenem could play a major role in selective pressure exerted by antibiotics in A. baumannii strains.

The Pampulha reservoir remains a potential urban focus of schistosomiasis mansoni in Brazil: changes in the occurrence patterns of Biomphalaria species and a new record of the parasite

Introduction The Pampulha reservoir has long been a focus of schistosomiasis transmission in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The last malacological study conducted in this urban reservoir was more than two decades ago, and thus, an update on the distribution of the species of Biomphalaria as well as new data on the presence of Schistosoma mansoni in this water body are required. Methods The current distribution of Biomphalaria spp. in the Pampulha reservoir and their infection with S. mansoni was evaluated during 55 malacological surveys conducted between 2009 and 2012. Results Biomphalaria straminea displayed a high population density and distribution, and 13.7% (2,233/16,235) of the specimens collected were infected with larval trematodes other than Schistosoma mansoni. Biomphalaria tenagophila and Biomphalaria glabrata, species currently presenting a restricted distribution and small populations, displayed trematode infection rates of 15.2% (98/644) and 13% (83/640), respectively. Thirteen (2%) specimens of B. glabrata were found to be infected with S. mansoni. In addition, a historical review based on previous and new data on the occurrence patterns of Biomphalaria species in this reservoir is presented. Conclusions The results indicate that the Pampulha reservoir remains a potential focus of urban schistosomiasis in Brazil, and significant changes in the occurrence patterns of Biomphalaria species were verified.