The future of osteoporosis treatment - a research update

Osteoporosis is characterised by a progressive loss of bone mass and microarchitecture which leads to increased fracture risk. Some of the drugs available to date have shown reductions in vertebral and non-vertebral fracture risk. However, in the ageing population of industrialised countries, still more fractures happen today than are avoided, which highlights the large medical need for new treatment options, models, and strategies. Recent insights into bone biology, have led to a better understanding of bone cell functions and crosstalk between osteoblasts, osteoclasts, and osteocytes at the molecular level. In the future, the armamentarium against osteoporotic fractures will likely be enriched by (1.) new bone anabolic substances such as antibodies directed against the endogenous inhibitors of bone formation sclerostin and dickkopf-1, PTH and PTHrp analogues, and possibly calcilytics; (2.) new inhibitors of bone resorption such as cathepsin K inhibitors which may suppress osteoclast function without impairing osteoclast viability and thus maintain bone formation by preserving the osteoclast-osteoblast crosstalk, and denosumab, an already widely available antibody against RANKL which inhibits osteoclast formation, function, and survival; and (3.) new therapeutic strategies based on an extended understanding of the pathophysiology of osteoporosis which may include sequential therapies with two or more bone active substances aimed at optimising the management of bone capital acquired during adolescence and maintained during adulthood in terms of both quantity and quality. Finally, one of the future challenges will be to identify those patients and patient populations expected to benefit the most from a given drug therapy or regimen. The WHO fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® and improved access to bone mineral density measurements by DXA will play a key role in this regard.

Who Will Provide Long-Term Care in the Future?

Projects that long-term-care delivery system will face substantial barriers in the future in finding staff to provide services even without an increase in demand due to public or private insurance. Shift of the economy toward skilled service jobs; Changing demography of the work force; Policy elements and cohorts effects that shape the demand for long-term care personnel in the year 2000 and beyond.

Ethnosciences - A step towards the integration of scientific and non-scientific forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ‘ontologies’ and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles which ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ‘inter-ontological dialogue’ were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide.

A Cox Model for Biostatistics of the Future

Professor Sir David R. Cox (DRC) is widely acknowledged as among the most important scientists of the second half of the twentieth century. He inherited the mantle of statistical science from Pearson and Fisher, advanced their ideas, and translated statistical theory into practice so as to forever change the application of statistics in many fields, but especially biology and medicine. The logistic and proportional hazards models he substantially developed, are arguably among the most influential biostatistical methods in current practice. This paper looks forward over the period from DRC's 80th to 90th birthdays, to speculate about the future of biostatistics, drawing lessons from DRC's contributions along the way. We consider "Cox's model" of biostatistics, an approach to statistical science that: formulates scientific questions or quantities in terms of parameters gamma in probability models f(y; gamma) that represent in a parsimonious fashion, the underlying scientific mechanisms (Cox, 1997); partition the parameters gamma = theta, eta into a subset of interest theta and other "nuisance parameters" eta necessary to complete the probability distribution (Cox and Hinkley, 1974); develops methods of inference about the scientific quantities that depend as little as possible upon the nuisance parameters (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1989); and thinks critically about the appropriate conditional distribution on which to base infrences. We briefly review exciting biomedical and public health challenges that are capable of driving statistical developments in the next decade. We discuss the statistical models and model-based inferences central to the CM approach, contrasting them with computationally-intensive strategies for prediction and inference advocated by Breiman and others (e.g. Breiman, 2001) and to more traditional design-based methods of inference (Fisher, 1935). We discuss the hierarchical (multi-level) model as an example of the future challanges and opportunities for model-based inference. We then consider the role of conditional inference, a second key element of the CM. Recent examples from genetics are used to illustrate these ideas. Finally, the paper examines causal inference and statistical computing, two other topics we believe will be central to biostatistics research and practice in the coming decade. Throughout the paper, we attempt to indicate how DRC's work and the "Cox Model" have set a standard of excellence to which all can aspire in the future.

Shaping the Future of Public Health: The Role of Biostatistics

Comments about the current place for the discipline of Biostatistics within Public Health (1993).

The future treatment of portal hypertension

Increased understanding of the hyperdynamic circulation syndrome has resulted in novel therapeutic approaches, some of which have already reached clinical practice. Central to the hyperdynamic circulation syndrome is an imbalance between the increase in different vasodilators (foremost among which is nitric oxide) and the compensatory increase in vasoconstrictors--usually accompanied by a blunted response. This chapter discusses the role of endothelin in the pathogenesis of the syndrome and in future treatment approaches. A relatively new area of research in this field is the role of infection and inflammation in the initiation and maintenance of the hyperdynamic circulation syndrome. The use of antibiotics in the setting of acute variceal bleeding is standard practice. Studies have suggested that chronic manipulation of the intestinal flora could have beneficial effects in the treatment of portal hypertension. The bile salts are another novel and interesting target. Although their vasoactive properties have been known for some time, recent data demonstrate that their effects could be central in the pathogenesis of the hyperdynamic circulation syndrome, and that manipulation of the composition of the bile acid pool could be a therapeutic approach to portal hypertension. Finally, hypoxia and angiogenesis play a role in the development of portal hypertension and the formation of collaterals. This role needs to be further defined but it appears likely that this phenomenon is yet another target for therapeutic intervention.

[Will type I diabetes mellitus be treated with immunosuppressive drugs in the future?]

Even if the pathogenesis of type-I (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus is still not clarified in every detail, there is general agreement that this form of diabetes is induced by autoimmune mechanisms leading to beta-cell destruction. Therefore, it should theoretically be feasible to suppress the mechanism leading to type-I diabetes with appropriate and early immunotherapy. The current clinical data clearly document that the rate and duration of remissions in patients with newly diagnosed type-I diabetes can be increased significantly using appropriate immunosuppressive regimens. However, before these therapies can become standard therapy of type-I diabetes, the following important clinical requirements have to be fulfilled: the toxicity (especially to kidneys and beta-cells) has to be reduced, the patients should be diagnosed and treated in 'pre-diabetic' states, more selective immunosuppressive regimens have to be available in order to reduce the occurrence of treatment-associated lymphomas and neoplasias. Since accurate detection of 'pre-diabetic' patients is difficult and presents an immense logistic problem, it may take a long time before large-scale immunosuppressive therapies of type-I diabetes are feasible.

Minimized cardiopulmonary bypass combined with a smart suction device: the future of cardiopulmonary bypass?

OBJECTIVE: The standard heart-lung machine is a major trigger of systemic inflammatory response and the morbidity attributed to conventional extracorporeal circulation (CECC) is still significant. Reduction of blood-artificial surface contact and reduction of priming volume are principal aims in minimized extracorporeal circulation (MECC) cardiopulmonary bypass systems. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of the literature and to present our experience with the MECC-smart suction system. METHODS AND RESULTS: At our institution, 1799 patients underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery, 1372 with a MECC-smart suction system and 427 with CECC. All in-hospital data were assessed and the results were compared between the 2 groups. Patient characteristics and the distribution of EuroSCORE risk profile in our collective were similar between both groups. Average age in the MECC collective was 67.5 +/- 11.4 years and average EuroSCORE was 5.0 +/- 1.5. Average number of distal anastomoses was similar to the average number encountered in patients undergoing CABG surgery with CECC (3.3 +/- 1.0 for MECC versus 3.2 +/- 1.1 for CECC; P = ns). Myocardial protection is superior in MECC patients with lower postoperative maximal cTnI values (11.0 +/- 10.8 micromol/L for MECC versus 24.7 +/- 25.3 micromol/L for CECC; P < .05). Postoperative recovery was faster in patients operated on with the MECC-smart suction system and discharge from the hospital was earlier than for CECC patients (7.4 +/- 1.9 days for MECC versus 8.8 +/- 3.8 days for CECC; P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: The MECC-smart suction system is a safe perfusion technique for CABG surgery. In patients operated on with this system, the clinical outcome seems to be better than in patients operated on with CECC. This promising and less damaging perfusion technology has the potential to replace CECC systems in CABG surgery.