Propagation of errors from a null balance terahertz reflectometer to a sample's relative water content

The THz water content index of a sample is defined and advantages in using such metric in estimating a sample's relative water content are discussed. The errors from reflectance measurements performed at two different THz frequencies using a quasi-optical null-balance reflectometer are propagated to the errors in estimating the sample water content index.

The relation between content and structure in language production: an analysis of speech errors in semantic dementia

In order to explore the impact of a degraded semantic system on the structure of language production, we analysed transcripts from autobiographical memory interviews to identify naturally-occurring speech errors by eight patients with semantic dementia (SD) and eight age-matched normal speakers. Relative to controls, patients were significantly more likely to (a) substitute and omit open class words, (b) substitute (but not omit) closed class words, (c) substitute incorrect complex morphological forms and (d) produce semantically and/or syntactically anomalous sentences. Phonological errors were scarce in both groups. The study confirms previous evidence of SD patients’ problems with open class content words which are replaced by higher frequency, less specific terms. It presents the first evidence that SD patients have problems with closed class items and make syntactic as well as semantic speech errors, although these grammatical abnormalities are mostly subtle rather than gross. The results can be explained by the semantic deficit which disrupts the representation of a pre-verbal message, lexical retrieval and the early stages of grammatical encoding.

Estimating relationships between air mass origin and chemical composition

Observations of a chemical at a point in the atmosphere typically show sudden transitions between episodes of high and low concentration. Often these are associated with a rapid change in the origin of air arriving at the site. Lagrangian chemical models riding along trajectories can reproduce such transitions, but small timing errors from trajectory phase errors dramatically reduce the correlation between modeled concentrations and observations. Here the origin averaging technique is introduced to obtain maps of average concentration as a function of air mass origin for the East Atlantic Summer Experiment 1996 (EASE96, a ground-based chemistry campaign). These maps are used to construct origin averaged time series which enable comparison between a chemistry model and observations with phase errors factored out. The amount of the observed signal explained by trajectory changes can be quantified, as can the systematic model errors as a function of air mass origin. The Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry and Transport (CiTTyCAT) can account for over 70% of the observed ozone signal variance during EASE96 when phase errors are side-stepped by origin averaging. The dramatic increase in correlation (from 23% without averaging) cannot be achieved by time averaging. The success of the model is attributed to the strong relationship between changes in ozone along trajectories and their origin and its ability to simulate those changes. The model performs less well for longer-lived chemical constituents because the initial conditions 5 days before arrival are insufficiently well known.

Teaching assistants and pupils' academic and social engagement in mainstream schools: insights from systematic literature reviews

The last 20 years have seen a huge expansion in the additional adults working in classrooms in the UK, USA, and other countries. This paper presents the findings of a series of systematic literature reviews about teaching assistants. The first two reviews focused on stakeholder perceptions of teaching assistant contributions to academic and social engagement. Stakeholders were pupils, teachers, TAs, headteachers and parents. Perceptions focused on four principal contributions that teaching assistants contribute to: pupils’ academic and socio-academic engagement; inclusion; maintenance of stakeholder relations; and support for the teacher. The third review explored training. Against a background of patchy training provision both in the UK and the USA, strong claims are made for the benefits to TAs of training provided, particularly in building confidence and skills. The conclusions include implications for further training and the need for further research to gain an in-depth understanding as to precisely the manner in which TAs engage with children.

Effects of beverage alcohol taxes and prices on drinking: a meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies

Aims: We conducted a systematic review of studies examining relationships between measures of beverage alcohol tax or price levels and alcohol sales or self-reported drinking. A total of 112 studies of alcohol tax or price effects were found, containing 1003 estimates of the tax/price–consumption relationship. Design: Studies included analyses of alternative outcome measures, varying subgroups of the population, several statistical models, and using different units of analysis. Multiple estimates were coded from each study, along with numerous study characteristics. Using reported estimates, standard errors, t-ratios, sample sizes and other statistics, we calculated the partial correlation for the relationship between alcohol price or tax and sales or drinking measures for each major model or subgroup reported within each study. Random-effects models were used to combine studies for inverse variance weighted overall estimates of the magnitude and significance of the relationship between alcohol tax/price and drinking. Findings: Simple means of reported elasticities are -0.46 for beer, -0.69 for wine and -0.80 for spirits. Meta-analytical results document the highly significant relationships (P < 0.001) between alcohol tax or price measures and indices of sales or consumption of alcohol (aggregate-level r = -0.17 for beer, -0.30 for wine, -0.29 for spirits and -0.44 for total alcohol). Price/tax also affects heavy drinking significantly (mean reported elasticity = -0.28, individual-level r = -0.01, P < 0.01), but the magnitude of effect is smaller than effects on overall drinking. Conclusions: A large literature establishes that beverage alcohol prices and taxes are related inversely to drinking. Effects are large compared to other prevention policies and programs. Public policies that raise prices of alcohol are an effective means to reduce drinking.

FACSGen: a tool to synthesize emotional facial expressions through systematic manipulation of facial action units

To investigate the perception of emotional facial expressions, researchers rely on shared sets of photos or videos, most often generated by actor portrayals. The drawback of such standardized material is a lack of flexibility and controllability, as it does not allow the systematic parametric manipulation of specific features of facial expressions on the one hand, and of more general properties of the facial identity (age, ethnicity, gender) on the other. To remedy this problem, we developed FACSGen: a novel tool that allows the creation of realistic synthetic 3D facial stimuli, both static and dynamic, based on the Facial Action Coding System. FACSGen provides researchers with total control over facial action units, and corresponding informational cues in 3D synthetic faces. We present four studies validating both the software and the general methodology of systematically generating controlled facial expression patterns for stimulus presentation.

On the performance of near-far resistant CDMA detectors in the presence of synchronization errors

Little has so far been reported on the performance of the near-far resistant CDMA detectors in the presence of the synchronization errors. Starting with the general mathematical model of matched filters, this paper examines the effects of three classes of synchronization errors (i.e. time-delay errors, carrier phase errors, and carrier frequency errors) on the performance (bit error rate and near-far resistance) of an emerging type of near-far resistant coherent DS/SSMA detectors, i.e. the linear decorrelating detector (LDD). For comparison, the corresponding results for the conventional detector are also presented. It is shown that the LDD can still maintain a considerable performance advantage over the conventional detector even when some synchronization errors exist. Finally, several computer simulations are carried out to verify the theoretical conclusions.

A study on the performance of the partial PIC CDMA detector in the presence of time offset errors

This paper investigates the effect of time offset errors on the partial parallel interference canceller (PIC) and compares the performance of it against that of the standard PIC. The BER performances of the standard and partial interference cancellers are simulated in a near far environment with varying time offset errors. These simulations indicate that whilst timing errors significantly affect the performance of both these schemes, they do not diminish the gains that are realised by the partial PIC over that of the standard PIC.

Performance analysis of near-far resistant CDMA detectors-influence of system parameter estimation errors

Little has been reported on the performance of near-far resistant CDMA detectors in the presence of system parameter estimation errors (SPEEs). Starting with the general mathematical model of matched filters, the paper examines the effects of three classes of SPEEs, i.e., time-delay, carrier phase, and carrier frequency errors, on the performance (BER) of an emerging type of near-far resistant coherent DS/SSMA detector, i.e., the linear decorrelating detector. For comparison, the corresponding results for the conventional detector are also presented. It is shown that the linear decorrelating detector can still maintain a considerable performance advantage over the conventional detector even when some SPEEs exist.

Combined bias and outlier identification in dynamic data reconciliation

Measured process data normally contain inaccuracies because the measurements are obtained using imperfect instruments. As well as random errors one can expect systematic bias caused by miscalibrated instruments or outliers caused by process peaks such as sudden power fluctuations. Data reconciliation is the adjustment of a set of process data based on a model of the process so that the derived estimates conform to natural laws. In this paper, techniques for the detection and identification of both systematic bias and outliers in dynamic process data are presented. A novel technique for the detection and identification of systematic bias is formulated and presented. The problem of detection, identification and elimination of outliers is also treated using a modified version of a previously available clustering technique. These techniques are also combined to provide a global dynamic data reconciliation (DDR) strategy. The algorithms presented are tested in isolation and in combination using dynamic simulations of two continuous stirred tank reactors (CSTR).

Enhancing model predictive control using dynamic data reconciliation

The use of data reconciliation techniques can considerably reduce the inaccuracy of process data due to measurement errors. This in turn results in improved control system performance and process knowledge. Dynamic data reconciliation techniques are applied to a model-based predictive control scheme. It is shown through simulations on a chemical reactor system that the overall performance of the model-based predictive controller is enhanced considerably when data reconciliation is applied. The dynamic data reconciliation techniques used include a combined strategy for the simultaneous identification of outliers and systematic bias.

The climate response to CO2 of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment

Coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models have a tendency to drift away from a realistic climatology. The modelled climate response to an increase of CO2 concentration may be incorrect if the simulation of the current climate has significant errors, so in many models, including ours, the drift is counteracted by applying prescribed fluxes of heat and fresh water at the ocean‐atmosphere interface in addition to the calculated surface exchanges. Since the additional fluxes do not have a physical basis, the use of this technique of “flux adjustment” itself introduces some uncertainty in the simulated response to increased CO2. We find that the global‐average temperature response of our model to CO2 increasing at 1% per year is about 30% less without flux adjustment than with flux adjustment. The geographical patterns of the response are similar, indicating that flux adjustment is not causing any gross distortion. The reduced size of the response is due to more effective vertical transport of heat into the ocean, and a somewhat smaller climate sensitivity. Although the response in both cases lies within the generally accepted range for the climate sensitivity, systematic uncertainties of this size are clearly undesirable, and the best strategy for future development is to improve the climate model in order to reduce the need for flux adjustment.

Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere

The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistry‐climate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, “metrics” indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long‐standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability.

Systematic property risk: quantifying UK property betas 1983-2005

The increased frequency in reporting UK property performance figures, coupled with the acceptance of the IPD database as the market standard, has enabled property to be analysed on a comparable level with other more frequently traded assets. The most widely utilised theory for pricing financial assets, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), gives market (systematic) risk, beta, centre stage. This paper seeks to measure the level of systematic risk (beta) across various property types, market conditions and investment holding periods. This paper extends the authors’ previous work on investment holding periods and how excess returns (alpha) relate to those holding periods. We draw on the uniquely constructed IPD/Gerald Eve transactions database, containing over 20,000 properties over the period 1983-2005. This research allows us to confirm our initial findings that properties held over longer periods perform in line with overall market performance. One implication of this is that over the long-term performance may be no different from an index tracking approach.