Validation procedures in radiological diagnostic models. Neural network and logistic regression

The objective of this paper is to compare the performance of twopredictive radiological models, logistic regression (LR) and neural network (NN), with five different resampling methods. One hundred and sixty-seven patients with proven calvarial lesions as the only known disease were enrolled. Clinical and CT data were used for LR and NN models. Both models were developed with cross validation, leave-one-out and three different bootstrap algorithms. The final results of each model were compared with error rate and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (Az). The neural network obtained statistically higher Az than LR with cross validation. The remaining resampling validation methods did not reveal statistically significant differences between LR and NN rules. The neural network classifier performs better than the one based on logistic regression. This advantage is well detected by three-fold cross-validation, but remains unnoticed when leave-one-out or bootstrap algorithms are used.

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Strike outcomes and wage settlements in Spain

This paper analyzes collective bargaining using Spanish firm level data. Centralto the analysis are the joint determination of wage and strike outcomes in adynamic framework and the possibility of segregate wage equation for strike andnon-strike outcomes. Conditional to strikes taking place, we confirm a negativerelationship between strike duration and wage changes in a dynamic context.Furthermore, we find selection in wage equations induced by the strike outcome.In this sense, the possibility of wage determination processes being differentin strike and non-strike samples is not rejected by the data. In particular,wage dynamics are of opposite sing in both strike and non-strike equations.Finally, we find evidence of a 0.33 percentage points wage change strike premium.

Comparing and validating hypothesis test procedures: Graphical and numerical tools

When the behaviour of a specific hypothesis test statistic is studied by aMonte Carlo experiment, the usual way to describe its quality is by givingthe empirical level of the test. As an alternative to this procedure, we usethe empirical distribution of the obtained \emph{p-}values and exploit itsinformation both graphically and numerically.

Correspondence analysis and categorical conjoint measurement

We show the equivalence between the use of correspondence analysis (CA)of concadenated tables and the application of a particular version ofconjoint analysis called categorical conjoint measurement (CCM). Theconnection is established using canonical correlation (CC). The second part introduces the interaction e¤ects in all three variants of theanalysis and shows how to pass between the results of each analysis.

Amoeba-resisting Chlamydiales present in domestic drinking water and their potential role in pneumonia

Chlamydia-related bacteria classified in the Chlamydiales order, are strictly intracellular bacteria and are able for the most to replicate in free-living amoebae. Amoebae, ubiquitous in the environment and especially in water, are very resistant to disinfection used in drinking water production. Thus, amoebae may reach easily the distribution and domestic water system, potentially sheltering amoeba-resisting bacteria including Legionella, mycobacteria and Chlamydiales. Indeed, some of these amoeba-resisting bacteria have been shown to cause respiratory infections in people inhaling contaminated water. Therefore, an environmental and clinical study was conducted to determine if Chlamydiales bacteria are also involved in respiratory infections and if a transmission through domestic drinking water could occur. First, large scale molecular and serological tools specific of Chlamydia-related bacteria were developed and then were applied on clinical samples from patients with and without pneumonia. Simultaneously, water and biofilm samples from households of the same patients were investigated using molecular and culture methods for the presence of Chlamydiales bacteria. Chlamydiales were detected in the nasopharyngeal flora from patients with and without pneumonia. However, no significant difference was observed between both groups. Conversely, serological investigations showed that antibody reactivity against members of the Criblamydiaceae was associated with pneumonia. The thesis provided very efficient tools that showed the presence of Chlamydiales in human nasopharyngeal flora as well as in the majority of the domestic drinking water. However, no transmission from domestic drinking water to human could be demonstrated. These tools will help in the future specifying the ecology and pathogenicity of the Chlamydia-re\ated bacteria and especially of the species belonging to the Criblamydiaceae family.

Panitumumab plus radiotherapy versus chemoradiotherapy in patients with unresected, locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (CONCERT-2): a randomised, controlled, open-label phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to compare panitumumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody against EGFR, plus radiotherapy with chemoradiotherapy in patients with unresected, locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck. METHODS: In this international, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial, we recruited patients with locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck from 22 sites in eight countries worldwide. Patients aged 18 years and older with stage III, IVa, or IVb, previously untreated, measurable (≥10 mm for at least one dimension), locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck (non-nasopharygeal) and an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-1 were randomly assigned (2:3) by an independent vendor to open-label chemoradiotherapy (two cycles of cisplatin 100 mg/m(2) during radiotherapy) or to radiotherapy plus panitumumab (three cycles of panitumumab 9 mg/kg every 3 weeks administered with radiotherapy) using a stratified randomisation with a block size of five. All patients received 70-72 Gy to gross tumour and 54 Gy to areas of subclinical disease with accelerated fractionation radiotherapy. The primary endpoint was local-regional control at 2 years, analysed in all randomly assigned patients who received at least one dose of their assigned protocol-specific treatment (chemotherapy, radiation, or panitumumab). The trial is closed and this is the final analysis. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00547157. FINDINGS: Between Nov 30, 2007, and Nov 16, 2009, 152 patients were enrolled, and 151 received treatment (61 in the chemoradiotherapy group and 90 in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group). Local-regional control at 2 years was 61% (95% CI 47-72) in the chemoradiotherapy group and 51% (40-62) in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group. The most frequent grade 3-4 adverse events were mucosal inflammation (25 [40%] of 62 patients in the chemoradiotherapy group vs 37 [42%] of 89 patients in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group), dysphagia (20 [32%] vs 36 [40%]), and radiation skin injury (seven [11%] vs 21 [24%]). Serious adverse events were reported in 25 (40%) of 62 patients in the chemoradiotherapy group and in 30 (34%) of 89 patients in the radiotherapy plus panitumumab group. INTERPRETATION: Panitumumab cannot replace cisplatin in the combined treatment with radiotherapy for unresected stage III-IVb squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck, and the role of EGFR inhibition in locally advanced squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck needs to be reassessed. FUNDING: Amgen.

Systematic study of the static electrical properties of the CO molecule: influence of the basis set size and correlation energy

The influence of the basis set size and the correlation energy in the static electrical properties of the CO molecule is assessed. In particular, we have studied both the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the static molecular electrical properties, the vibrational Stark effect (VSE) and the vibrational intensity effect (VIE). From a mathematical point of view, when a static and uniform electric field is applied to a molecule, the energy of this system can be expressed in terms of a double power series with respect to the bond length and to the field strength. From the power series expansion of the potential energy, field-dependent expressions for the equilibrium geometry, for the potential energy and for the force constant are obtained. The nuclear relaxation and vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties are analyzed in terms of the derivatives of the electronic molecular properties. In general, the results presented show that accurate inclusion of the correlation energy and large basis sets are needed to calculate the molecular electrical properties and their derivatives with respect to either nuclear displacements or/and field strength. With respect to experimental data, the calculated power series coefficients are overestimated by the SCF, CISD, and QCISD methods. On the contrary, perturbation methods (MP2 and MP4) tend to underestimate them. In average and using the 6-311 + G(3df) basis set and for the CO molecule, the nuclear relaxation and the vibrational contributions to the molecular electrical properties amount to 11.7%, 3.3%, and 69.7% of the purely electronic μ, α, and β values, respectively

Atlas-based segmentation of pathological MR brain images using a model of lesion growth.

We propose a method for brain atlas deformation in the presence of large space-occupying tumors, based on an a priori model of lesion growth that assumes radial expansion of the lesion from its starting point. Our approach involves three steps. First, an affine registration brings the atlas and the patient into global correspondence. Then, the seeding of a synthetic tumor into the brain atlas provides a template for the lesion. The last step is the deformation of the seeded atlas, combining a method derived from optical flow principles and a model of lesion growth. Results show that a good registration is performed and that the method can be applied to automatic segmentation of structures and substructures in brains with gross deformation, with important medical applications in neurosurgery, radiosurgery, and radiotherapy.

The impact of eliminating a child benefit on birth timing and infant health

We study the effects of the cancellation of a sizeable child benefit in Spainon birth timing and neonatal health. In May 2010, the government announced that a2,500-euro universal "baby bonus" would stop being paid to babies born startingJanuary 1, 2011. We use detailed micro data from birth certificates from 2000 to 2011,and find that more than 2,000 families were able to anticipate the date of birth of theirbabies from (early) January 2011 to (late) December 2010 (for a total of about 10,000births a week nationally). This shifting took place in part via an increase as well as ananticipation of pre-programmed c-sections, seemingly mostly in private clinics. We findthat this shifting of birthdates resulted in a significant increase in the number ofborderline low birth weight babies, as well as a peak in neonatal mortality. The resultssuggest that announcement effects are important, and that families and healthprofessionals may face effective trade-offs when deciding on the timing (and method) ofbirth.

Waveform inversion of crosshole georadar data: influence of source wavelet variability and the suitability of a single wavelet assumption

Waveform-based tomographic imaging of crosshole georadar data is a powerful method to investigate the shallow subsurface because of its ability to provide images of electrical properties in near-surface environments with unprecedented spatial resolution. A critical issue with waveform inversion is the a priori unknown source signal. Indeed, the estimation of the source pulse is notoriously difficult but essential for the effective application of this method. Here, we explore the viability and robustness of a recently proposed deconvolution-based procedure to estimate the source pulse during waveform inversion of crosshole georadar data, where changes in wavelet shape with location as a result of varying near-field conditions and differences in antenna coupling may be significant. Specifically, we examine whether a single, average estimated source current function can adequately represent the pulses radiated at all transmitter locations during a crosshole georadar survey, or whether a separate source wavelet estimation should be performed for each transmitter gather. Tests with synthetic and field data indicate that remarkably good tomographic reconstructions can be obtained using a single estimated source pulse when moderate to strong variability exists in the true source signal with antenna location. Only in the case of very strong variability in the true source pulse are tomographic reconstructions clearly improved by estimating a different source wavelet for each transmitter location.

The long-run and intergenerational education impacts of intergovernmental transfers

This paper provides regression discontinuity evidence on long-run and intergenerational education impacts of a temporary increase in federal transfers to local governments in Brazil. Revenues and expenditures of the communities benefiting from extra transfers temporarily increased by about 20% during the 4 year period from 1982 to the end of 1985. Schooling and literacy gains for directly exposed cohorts established in previous work that used the 1991 census are attenuated but persist in the 2000 and 2010 censuses. Children and adolescents of the next generation --born after the extra funding had disappeared-- show gains of about 0.08 standard deviation across the entire score distribution of two nationwide exams at the end of the 2000s. While we find no evidence of persistent improvements in school resources, we document discontinuities in education levels, literacy rates and incomes of test takers' parents that are consistent with intergenerational human capital spillovers.

No consistent association between processes-of-care and health-related quality of life among patients with diabetes : a missing link?

PURPOSE: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is considered a representative outcome in the evaluation of chronic disease management initiatives emphasizing patient-centered care. We evaluated the association between receipt of processes-of-care (PoC) for diabetes and HRQoL. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used self-reported data from non-institutionalized adults with diabetes in a Swiss canton. Outcomes were the physical/mental composites of the short form health survey 12 (SF-12) physical composite score, mental composite score (PCS, MCS) and the Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life (ADDQoL). Main exposure variables were receipt of six PoC for diabetes in the past 12 months, and the Patient Assessment of Chronic Illness Care (PACIC) score. We performed linear regressions to examine the association between PoC, PACIC and the three composites of HRQoL. RESULTS: Mean age of the 519 patients was 64.5 years (SD 11.3); 60% were male, 87% reported type 2 or undetermined diabetes and 48% had diabetes for over 10 years. Mean HRQoL scores were SF-12 PCS: 43.4 (SD 10.5), SF-12 MCS: 47.0 (SD 11.2) and ADDQoL: -1.6 (SD 1.6). In adjusted models including all six PoC simultaneously, receipt of influenza vaccine was associated with lower ADDQoL (β=-0.4, p≤0.01) and foot examination was negatively associated with SF-12 PCS (β=-1.8, p≤0.05). There was no association or trend towards a negative association when these PoC were reported as combined measures. PACIC score was associated only with the SF-12 MCS (β=1.6, p≤0.05). CONCLUSIONS: PoC for diabetes did not show a consistent association with HRQoL in a cross-sectional analysis. This may represent an effect lag time between time of process received and health-related quality of life. Further research is needed to study this complex phenomenon.

Determination of plasma levels of citalopram and its demethylated and deaminated metabolites by gas chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry.

Sensitive and specific methods based on gas chromatography (GC) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) for the determination of levels of citalopram, desmethylcitalopram and didesmethylcitalopram in the plasma of patients treated with citalopram are presented, as well as a GC-MS procedure for the assay of the citalopram propionic acid derivative. After addition of a separate internal standard for each drug, liquid-solvent extraction is used to separate the basic compounds from the acid compounds. The demethylated amines are derivatized with trifluoroacetic anhydride, and the acid metabolite with methyl iodide. GC-MS is performed in the electron impact mode, as mass spectrometry by the (positive-ion) chemical ionization mode (methane and ammonia) appeared to be unsuitable. The limits of quantification were 1 ng/ml for citalopram and desmethylcitalopram and 2 ng/ml for the other metabolites. The correlation coefficients for the calibration curves (range 10-500 ng/ml) were > or = 0.999 for all compounds, whether determined by GC or GC-MS.

Effect of water and citrate solubility on agronomic effectiveness of acidulated phosphates in three consecutive corn crops

In the process of phosphate rock acidulation, several impure P compounds may be formed along with the desirable Ca and NH4 phosphates. Such compounds normally reduce the content of water-soluble P and thus the agronomic effectiveness of commercial fertilizers. In order to study this problem, a greenhouse experiment consisting of three consecutive corn crops was conducted in samples of a Red-Yellow Latosol (Typical Hapludox) in a completely randomized design (6 x 2 x 2), with four replicates. Six commercial fertilizers were added to 2 kg of soil at a rate of 70 mg kg-1 P, based on the content of soluble P in neutral ammonium citrate plus water (NAC + H2O) of the fertilizers. Fertilizer application occurred either in the original form or leached to remove the water-soluble fraction, either by mixing the fertilizer with the whole soil in the pots or with only 1 % of its volume. The corn plants were harvested 40 days after emergence to determine the shoot dry matter and accumulated P. For the first crop and localized application, the elimination of water-soluble P from the original fertilizers resulted in less bioavailable P for the plants. For the second and third crops, the effects of P source, leaching and application methods were not as evident as for the first, suggesting that the tested P sources may have similar efficiencies when considering successive cropping. The conclusion was drawn that the water-insoluble but NAC-soluble fractions of commercial P fertilizers are not necessarily inert because they can provide P in the long run.