Modelling and estimating models of physician labour supply and productivity

Ma thèse s’intéresse aux politiques de santé conçues pour encourager l’offre de services de santé. L’accessibilité aux services de santé est un problème majeur qui mine le système de santé de la plupart des pays industrialisés. Au Québec, le temps médian d’attente entre une recommandation du médecin généraliste et un rendez-vous avec un médecin spécialiste était de 7,3 semaines en 2012, contre 2,9 semaines en 1993, et ceci malgré l’augmentation du nombre de médecins sur cette même période. Pour les décideurs politiques observant l’augmentation du temps d’attente pour des soins de santé, il est important de comprendre la structure de l’offre de travail des médecins et comment celle-ci affecte l’offre des services de santé. Dans ce contexte, je considère deux principales politiques. En premier lieu, j’estime comment les médecins réagissent aux incitatifs monétaires et j’utilise les paramètres estimés pour examiner comment les politiques de compensation peuvent être utilisées pour déterminer l’offre de services de santé de court terme. En second lieu, j’examine comment la productivité des médecins est affectée par leur expérience, à travers le mécanisme du "learning-by-doing", et j’utilise les paramètres estimés pour trouver le nombre de médecins inexpérimentés que l’on doit recruter pour remplacer un médecin expérimenté qui va à la retraite afin de garder l’offre des services de santé constant. Ma thèse développe et applique des méthodes économique et statistique afin de mesurer la réaction des médecins face aux incitatifs monétaires et estimer leur profil de productivité (en mesurant la variation de la productivité des médecins tout le long de leur carrière) en utilisant à la fois des données de panel sur les médecins québécois, provenant d’enquêtes et de l’administration. Les données contiennent des informations sur l’offre de travail de chaque médecin, les différents types de services offerts ainsi que leurs prix. Ces données couvrent une période pendant laquelle le gouvernement du Québec a changé les prix relatifs des services de santé. J’ai utilisé une approche basée sur la modélisation pour développer et estimer un modèle structurel d’offre de travail en permettant au médecin d’être multitâche. Dans mon modèle les médecins choisissent le nombre d’heures travaillées ainsi que l’allocation de ces heures à travers les différents services offerts, de plus les prix des services leurs sont imposés par le gouvernement. Le modèle génère une équation de revenu qui dépend des heures travaillées et d’un indice de prix représentant le rendement marginal des heures travaillées lorsque celles-ci sont allouées de façon optimale à travers les différents services. L’indice de prix dépend des prix des services offerts et des paramètres de la technologie de production des services qui déterminent comment les médecins réagissent aux changements des prix relatifs. J’ai appliqué le modèle aux données de panel sur la rémunération des médecins au Québec fusionnées à celles sur l’utilisation du temps de ces mêmes médecins. J’utilise le modèle pour examiner deux dimensions de l’offre des services de santé. En premierlieu, j’analyse l’utilisation des incitatifs monétaires pour amener les médecins à modifier leur production des différents services. Bien que les études antérieures ont souvent cherché à comparer le comportement des médecins à travers les différents systèmes de compensation,il y a relativement peu d’informations sur comment les médecins réagissent aux changementsdes prix des services de santé. Des débats actuels dans les milieux de politiques de santé au Canada se sont intéressés à l’importance des effets de revenu dans la détermination de la réponse des médecins face à l’augmentation des prix des services de santé. Mon travail contribue à alimenter ce débat en identifiant et en estimant les effets de substitution et de revenu résultant des changements des prix relatifs des services de santé. En second lieu, j’analyse comment l’expérience affecte la productivité des médecins. Cela a une importante implication sur le recrutement des médecins afin de satisfaire la demande croissante due à une population vieillissante, en particulier lorsque les médecins les plus expérimentés (les plus productifs) vont à la retraite. Dans le premier essai, j’ai estimé la fonction de revenu conditionnellement aux heures travaillées, en utilisant la méthode des variables instrumentales afin de contrôler pour une éventuelle endogeneité des heures travaillées. Comme instruments j’ai utilisé les variables indicatrices des âges des médecins, le taux marginal de taxation, le rendement sur le marché boursier, le carré et le cube de ce rendement. Je montre que cela donne la borne inférieure de l’élasticité-prix direct, permettant ainsi de tester si les médecins réagissent aux incitatifs monétaires. Les résultats montrent que les bornes inférieures des élasticités-prix de l’offre de services sont significativement positives, suggérant que les médecins répondent aux incitatifs. Un changement des prix relatifs conduit les médecins à allouer plus d’heures de travail au service dont le prix a augmenté. Dans le deuxième essai, j’estime le modèle en entier, de façon inconditionnelle aux heures travaillées, en analysant les variations des heures travaillées par les médecins, le volume des services offerts et le revenu des médecins. Pour ce faire, j’ai utilisé l’estimateur de la méthode des moments simulés. Les résultats montrent que les élasticités-prix direct de substitution sont élevées et significativement positives, représentant une tendance des médecins à accroitre le volume du service dont le prix a connu la plus forte augmentation. Les élasticitésprix croisées de substitution sont également élevées mais négatives. Par ailleurs, il existe un effet de revenu associé à l’augmentation des tarifs. J’ai utilisé les paramètres estimés du modèle structurel pour simuler une hausse générale de prix des services de 32%. Les résultats montrent que les médecins devraient réduire le nombre total d’heures travaillées (élasticité moyenne de -0,02) ainsi que les heures cliniques travaillées (élasticité moyenne de -0.07). Ils devraient aussi réduire le volume de services offerts (élasticité moyenne de -0.05). Troisièmement, j’ai exploité le lien naturel existant entre le revenu d’un médecin payé à l’acte et sa productivité afin d’établir le profil de productivité des médecins. Pour ce faire, j’ai modifié la spécification du modèle pour prendre en compte la relation entre la productivité d’un médecin et son expérience. J’estime l’équation de revenu en utilisant des données de panel asymétrique et en corrigeant le caractère non-aléatoire des observations manquantes à l’aide d’un modèle de sélection. Les résultats suggèrent que le profil de productivité est une fonction croissante et concave de l’expérience. Par ailleurs, ce profil est robuste à l’utilisation de l’expérience effective (la quantité de service produit) comme variable de contrôle et aussi à la suppression d’hypothèse paramétrique. De plus, si l’expérience du médecin augmente d’une année, il augmente la production de services de 1003 dollar CAN. J’ai utilisé les paramètres estimés du modèle pour calculer le ratio de remplacement : le nombre de médecins inexpérimentés qu’il faut pour remplacer un médecin expérimenté. Ce ratio de remplacement est de 1,2.

Improving income and livelihood of poor farming household in Bangladesh through adoption of improved aquaculture technologies and varieties

Fish are an important part of Bangladeshi culture and diet. Bangladesh ranks among the top five freshwater fish producers in the world. Fish are abundant in the thousands of rivers, ponds, lakes and seasonal floodplains across the country. They are a major source of protein for people living near these water bodies. In Bangladesh, many households depend on fish farming for their livelihood. By growing fish in homestead ponds, households have a consistent supply of nutritious fish and can sell the surplus for an income. The USAID-funded Cereal Systems Initiative for South Asia in Bangladesh (CSISA-BD) aimed to increase the income of farming households through increased productivity of aquaculture systems. Key activities of the project included developing and disseminating appropriate improved agricultural technology and quality fish seeds to improve livelihoods, food security and nutrition.

Veto of R.182, H.4717

This veto message from Governor Nikki Haley vetoes a bill would give farmers an additional $40 million in cash payments other small businesses will never receive because it is an unprecedented bailout for a single industry affected by last year's flooding.

Chronic Diseases: Chronic Diseases and Development 2 Health, agricultural, and economic effects of adoption of healthy diet recommendations

Transition to diets that are high in saturated fat and sugar has caused a global public health concern as the pattern of food consumption is a mayor modifiable risk factor for chronic non-communicable diseases Although agri food systems are intimately associated with this transition, agriculture and health sectors are largely disconnected in their priorities policy, and analysis with neither side considering the complex inter relation between agri trade patterns of food consumption health, and development We show the importance of connection of these perspectives through estimation of the effect of adopting a healthy diet on population health, agricultural production trade the economy and livelihoods, with a computable general equilibrium approach on the basis of case studies from the UK and Brazil we suggest that benefits of a healthy diet policy will vary substantially between different populations, not only because of population dietary intake but also because of agricultural production trade and other economic factors

Utilization of nitrogen (15N) from urea and green manures by rice as affected by nitrogen fertilizer rate.

The use of green manures (GMs) in combination with nitrogen (N) fertilizer application is a promising practice to improve N fertilizer management in agricultural production systems. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the N use efficiency (NUE) of rice plant, derived from GMs including sunn hemp (Crotalaria juncea L.), millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.) and urea in the greenhouse. The experimental treatments included two GMs (sunn hemp-15N and millet-15N), absence of N organic source (without GM residues in soil) and four N rates, as urea-15N (0, 28.6, 57.2 and 85.8 mg N kg-1). The results showed that both rice grain and straw biomass yields under sunn hemp were greater than that of millet or without the application of GM. The NUE of rice under sunn hemp was greater than that under millet (18.9 and 7.8% under sunn hemp and millet, respectively). The urea N application rates did not affect the fertilizer NUE by rice (53.7%) with or without GMs. The NUE of GMs by rice plants ranged from 14.1% and 16.8% for root and shoot, respectively. The study showed that green manures can play an important role in enhancing soil fertility and N supply to subsequent crops.

Prospect theory and the effects of bankruptcy laws on entrepreneurial aspirations

We apply prospect theory to explain how personal and corporate bankruptcy laws affect risk perceptions of entrepreneurs at time of entry and therefore their growth ambitions. Previous theories have reached ambiguous conclusions as to whether countries with more debtor-friendly bankruptcy laws (i.e. laws that are more forgiving towards debtors in bankruptcy proceedings) are likely to have more entrepreneurs, or whether, creditorfriendly regimes have positive effects on new ventures via enhanced incentives for the supply of credit to entrepreneurs. Responding to this ambiguity, we apply prospect theory to propose that entrepreneurs do not attach the same significance to different elements of bankruptcy codes—and to explain which aspects of debtor-friendly bankruptcy laws matter more to entrepreneurs. Based on this, we derive and confirm hypotheses about the impact of aspects of bankruptcy codes on entrepreneurial activity using the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor combined with data on both personal and corporate bankruptcyregulations for 15 developed OECD countries. We use multilevel random coefficient logistic regressions to take account of the hierarchical nature of the data (country and individual levels). Because entrepreneurs and creditors are sensitive to different elements of the codes, there is scope for optimisation of the legal design of bankruptcy law to achieve both an adequate supply of credit and to encourage high-ambition entrepreneurship.

Integrated soil fertility management in eastern and western Africa: The role of knowledge and innovation systems, its adoption and impact

The rise in population growth, as well as nutrient mining, has contributed to low agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A plethora of technologies to boost agricultural production have been developed but the dissemination of these agricultural innovations and subsequent uptake by smallholder farmers has remained a challenge. Scientists and philanthropists have adopted the Integrated Soil Fertility Management (ISFM) paradigm as a means to promote sustainable intensification of African farming systems. This comparative study aimed: 1) To assess the efficacy of Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation Systems (AKIS) in East (Kenya) and West (Ghana) Africa in the communication and dissemination of ISFM (Study I); 2) To investigate how specifically soil quality, and more broadly socio-economic status and institutional factors, influence farmer adoption of ISFM (Study II); and 3) To assess the effect of ISFM on maize yield and total household income of smallholder farmers (Study III). To address these aims, a mixed methodology approach was employed for study I. AKIS actors were subjected to social network analysis methods and in-depth interviews. Structured questionnaires were administered to 285 farming households in Tamale and 300 households in Kakamega selected using a stratified random sampling approach. There was a positive relationship between complete ISFM awareness among farmers and weak knowledge ties to both formal and informal actors at both research locations. The Kakamega AKIS revealed a relationship between complete ISFM awareness among farmers and them having strong knowledge ties to formal actors implying that further integration of formal actors with farmers’ local knowledge is crucial for the agricultural development progress. The structured questionnaire was also utilized to answer the query pertaining to study II. Soil samples (0-20 cm depth) were drawn from 322 (Tamale, Ghana) and 459 (Kakamega, Kenya) maize plots and analysed non-destructively for various soil fertility indicators. Ordinal regression modeling was applied to assess the cumulative adoption of ISFM. According to model estimates, soil carbon seemed to preclude farmers from intensifying input use in Tamale, whereas in Kakamega it spurred complete adoption. This varied response by farmers to soil quality conditions is multifaceted. From the Tamale perspective, it is consistent with farmers’ tendency to judiciously allocate scarce resources. Viewed from the Kakamega perspective, it points to a need for farmers here to intensify agricultural production in order to foster food security. In Kakamega, farmers with more acidic soils were more likely to adopt ISFM. Other household and farm-level factors necessary for ISFM adoption included off-farm income, livestock ownership, farmer associations, and market inter-linkages. Finally, in study III a counterfactual model was used to calculate the difference in outcomes (yield and household income) of the treatment (ISFM adoption) in order to estimate causal effects of ISFM adoption. Adoption of ISFM contributed to a yield increase of 16% in both Tamale and Kakamega. The innovation affected total household income only in Tamale, where ISFM adopters had an income gain of 20%. This may be attributable to the different policy contexts under which the two sets of farmers operate. The main recommendations underscored the need to: (1) improve the functioning of AKIS, (2) enhance farmer access to hybrid maize seed and credit, (3) and conduct additional multi-locational studies as farmers operate under varying contexts.

Credit spreads and monetary policy in a small open economy: an analysis of the colombian economy

This paper estimates Bejarano and Charry (2014)’s small open economy with financial frictions model for the Colombian economy using Bayesian estimation techniques. Additionally, I compute the welfare gains of implementing an optimal response to credit spreads into an augmented Taylor rule. The main result is that a reaction to credit spreads does not imply significant welfare gains unless the economic disturbances increases its volatility, like the disruption implied by a financial crisis. Otherwise its impact over the macroeconomic variables is null.

Motion Control of an Advanced Electric Implement for Agricultural Autonomous Vehicles

Nowadays, the development of intelligent and autonomous vehicles used to perform agricultural activities is essential to improve quantity and quality of agricultural productions. Moreover, with automation techniques it is possible to reduce the usage of agrochemicals and minimize the pollution. The University of Bologna is developing an innovative system for orchard management called ORTO (Orchard Rapid Transportation System). This system involves an autonomous electric vehicle capable to perform agricultural activities inside an orchard structure. The vehicle is equipped with an implement capable to perform different tasks. The purpose of this thesis project is to control the vehicle and the implement to perform an inter-row grass mowing. This kind of task requires a synchronized motion between the traction motors and the implement motors. A motion control system has been developed to generate trajectories and manage their synchronization. Two main trajectories type have been used: a five order polynomial trajectory and a trapezoidal trajectory. These two kinds of trajectories have been chosen in order to perform a uniform grass mowing, paying a particular attention to the constrains of the system. To synchronize the motions, the electronic cams approach has been adopted. A master profile has been generated and all the trajectories have been linked to the master motion. Moreover, a safety system has been developed. The aim of this system is firstly to improve the safety during the motion, furthermore it allows to manage obstacle detection and avoidance. Using some particular techniques obstacles can be detected and recovery action can be performed to overcome the problem. Once the measured force reaches the predefined force threshold, then the vehicle stops immediately its motion. The whole project has been developed by employing Matlab and Simulink. Eventually, the software has been translated into C code and executed on the TI Lauchpad XL board.

Occurrence Of Isoflavonoids In Brazilian Common Bean Germplasm (phaseolus Vulgaris L.).

Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) is present in the daily diet of various countries and, as for other legumes, has been investigated for its nutraceutical potential. Thus, 16 genotypes from different gene pools, representing seven types of seed coats and different responses to pathogens and pests, were selected to verify their isoflavone contents. The isoflavonoids daidzein and genistein and the flavonols kaempferol, myricetin, and quercetin were found. Grains of the black type showed the highest concentrations of isoflavonoids and were the only ones to exhibit daidzein. IAC Formoso, with high protein content and source of resistance to anthracnose, showed the greatest concentration of genistein, representing around 11% of the content present in soybean, as well as high levels of kaempferol. Arc 1, Raz 55, and IAC Una genotypes showed high content of coumestrol. The results suggest the use of IAC Formoso to increase the nutraceutical characteristics in common bean.

Influence Of The Stage Of Ripeness On The Composition Of Iridoids And Phenolic Compounds In Genipap (genipa Americana L.).

Genipap fruits, native to the Amazon region, were classified in relation to their stage of ripeness according to firmness and peel color. The influence of the part of the genipap fruit and ripeness stage on the iridoid and phenolic compound profiles was evaluated by HPLC-DAD-MS(n), and a total of 17 compounds were identified. Geniposide was the major compound in both parts of the unripe genipap fruits, representing >70% of the total iridoids, whereas 5-caffeoylquinic acid was the major phenolic compound. In ripe fruits, genipin gentiobioside was the major compound in the endocarp (38%) and no phenolic compounds were detected. During ripening, the total iridoid content decreased by >90%, which could explain the absence of blue pigment formation in the ripe fruits after their injury. This is the first time that the phenolic compound composition and iridoid contents of genipap fruits have been reported in the literature.

Cheaper Faster Drug Development Validated By The Repositioning Of Drugs Against Neglected Tropical Diseases.

There is an urgent need to make drug discovery cheaper and faster. This will enable the development of treatments for diseases currently neglected for economic reasons, such as tropical and orphan diseases, and generally increase the supply of new drugs. Here, we report the Robot Scientist 'Eve' designed to make drug discovery more economical. A Robot Scientist is a laboratory automation system that uses artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to discover scientific knowledge through cycles of experimentation. Eve integrates and automates library-screening, hit-confirmation, and lead generation through cycles of quantitative structure activity relationship learning and testing. Using econometric modelling we demonstrate that the use of AI to select compounds economically outperforms standard drug screening. For further efficiency Eve uses a standardized form of assay to compute Boolean functions of compound properties. These assays can be quickly and cheaply engineered using synthetic biology, enabling more targets to be assayed for a given budget. Eve has repositioned several drugs against specific targets in parasites that cause tropical diseases. One validated discovery is that the anti-cancer compound TNP-470 is a potent inhibitor of dihydrofolate reductase from the malaria-causing parasite Plasmodium vivax.

Thermolysed and active yeast to reduce the toxicity of aflatoxin

Aflatoxins are hepatotoxic metabolites produced by Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus on a number of agricultural commodities. This research was carried out to evaluate the ability of thermolysed and active Saccharomyces cerevisiae to attenuate liver damage caused by aflatoxin. Diets were prepared containing 0 aflatoxin; 400 mug kg-1 aflatoxin; 400 mug kg-1 aflatoxin plus 1% of dehydrated active yeast, and 400 mug kg-1 aflatoxin plus 1% of thermolysed yeast. A bioassay with Wistar rats was conducted for 28 days, and body organs were weighted and analyses of the liver tissue of the animals were performed. The relative weight of heart, kidneys and liver from animals submitted to the different treatments did not show any difference, and liver tissue of animals feeding on the aflatoxin-free diet was adopted as a toxicity-free pattern. Hepatic tissue of animals feeding on diets containing 400 mug kg-1 aflatoxin or the diet supplemented with 1% thermolysed yeast showed clear signs of toxicity and damage. Hepatic tissue of animals feeding on the diet containing 1% of dehydrated active yeast showed less toxicity signs and damage than those receiving the diet containing 400 mug kg-1 aflatoxin. Active, dehydrated yeast had the ability to reduce toxic effects caused by aflatoxin, but thermolysed yeast was not able to alleviate the effects of aflatoxin toxicity.

Paleoproductivity changes during the Late Quaternary in the southeastern Brazilian upper continental margin of the Southwestern Atlantic

Changes in the Brazilian continental margins oceanic productivity and circulation over the last 27,000 years were reconstructed based on sedimentological and microfaunal analyses. Our results suggest that oceanic paleoproductivity and the supply of terrigenous sediments to the Brazilian continental margin were higher during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than during the Holocene. These changes may have been primarily influenced by significant sea level fluctuations that have occurred since the late Pleistocene. During the LGM, the lower sea level, higher productivity and lower sea-surface paleotemperatures may have been the result of the offshore displacement of the main flow of the Brazil Current. However, during the Holocene, the warm waters of the Brazil Current were displaced toward the coast. This displacement contributed to the increase in water temperature and prevented an increase in oceanic productivity. The decrease in terrigenous supply since the LGM could be related to the increase of the extension of the continental shelf and/or drier climatic conditions.

Wavelet analysis of MODIS time series to detect expansion and intensification of row-crop agriculture in Brazil

Since 2000, the southwestern Brazilian Amazon has undergone a rapid transformation from natural vegetation and pastures to row-crop agricultural with the potential to affect regional biogeochemistry. The goals of this research are to assess wavelet algorithms applied to MODIS time series to determine expansion of row-crops and intensification of the number of crops grown. MODIS provides data from February 2000 to present, a period of agricultural expansion and intensification in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon. We have selected a study area near Comodoro, Mato Grosso because of the rapid growth of row-crop agriculture and availability of ground truth data of agricultural land-use history. We used a 90% power wavelet transform to create a wavelet-smoothed time series for five years of MODIS EVI data. From this wavelet-smoothed time series we determine characteristic phenology of single and double crops. We estimate that over 3200 km(2) were converted from native vegetation and pasture to row-crop agriculture from 2000 to 2005 in our study area encompassing 40,000 km(2). We observe an increase of 2000 km(2) of agricultural intensification, where areas of single crops were converted to double crops during the study period. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.